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Chisoxfn

COVID Thread Part Deux

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Lets keep this open - but with everything obviously ramping up...FDA approval today (full approval)...booster shots (which are evidently, in small sample size looking very effective - see Israel).  If I see nonsense/unnecessary arguing & personal attacks - posts will be hidden without warning, etc (making this clear up front).  

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We are back 100% in person with required masks. A district just up the road is open without a mask in sight. Another is still offering virtual classes. Sigh
 

We could have kept polio around with this response. 

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44 minutes ago, Texsox said:

We are back 100% in person with required masks. A district just up the road is open without a mask in sight. Another is still offering virtual classes. Sigh
 

We could have kept polio around with this response. 

And Texas overtakes Florida as the USs leading COVID count.

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10 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

And Texas overtakes Florida as the USs leading COVID count.

Everything is bigger in Texas.

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My son started Pre-K last Wednesday.  Yesterday, someone was sent home sick, and then tested positive for COVID.  So the school shut down early yesterday, it's closed today, and we are not sure when it will be open again.

My son went all last year without the school having to close down for COVID.   This school year Is going to be brutal.

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14 hours ago, Texsox said:

We are back 100% in person with required masks. A district just up the road is open without a mask in sight. Another is still offering virtual classes. Sigh
 

We could have kept polio around with this response. 

It is unfortunate, at this point we need vaccine mandates from all employers and governments with the sole exception being for medical reasons (there shouldn’t be religious exemptions for vaccines).  And if someone still doesn’t want the vaccine then they can be ostracized from society and not get to take part in the benefits provided by it. I have zero sympathy for people who won’t get vaccinated unless there is a medical reason for them not to. 
 

Years ago people in this country would sacrifice for the greater good (and getting a vaccine isn’t even a sacrifice) but thanks to Fox News and social media one side of the aisle has decided science is bad and owning the libs is more important than public health or the country.

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7 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Expecting to see more of these rolling out:

 

 

For better or worse, nearly all of the hospitals and clinics in Illinois are requiring them for our students to do their internships there. It's around 80% right now and I expect it to go up. 

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Image

Wonder if another wave is coming. The most vaccinated country in the world has more cases per million than the US has ever had at any point. Was hoping they were using the AstraZeneca or something not used in the US but no, they are using Pfizer. That is not good. All complaints go to Johns Hopkins and their data. 

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The one bright side - and I have no idea if it had legs - but I think small sample size data was showing the booster shot (3rd shot vs. 2nd shot) to being like 5x more effective. To be honest - not sure how it could be that valid/meaningful of a data set (but it was coming from Israel) who started giving boosters a few weeks to a month back.  I presume take up will be on the slower side - but will be interesting how everything plays out - with more people infected, more people unvaccinated getting vaccinated, and than people getting boosters - maybe all of that does something that gets us even lower than where we were right before Delta exploded (and that we can get more permanently get to that point).  

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Israel rolled out almost entirely on Pfizer and they followed the same dosing schedule as the US did--3 weeks between shots. That was the quickest way to ramp up protection against infection.

The UK has highish vaccination rates, but they used AZ and Pfizer, mixed it sometimes, and also had a delayed dosing schedule. They've had a big case spike just like the US and Israel, but their hospitalization rates are remaining much lower. There's thoughts that the delayed second dose may provide for better long-term immunity, or just that their second doses were not as long ago as a lot of Israeli and US second doses, so their antibody levels are still high. A third dose in Israel in their 60+ population is seeing that group leveling off pretty clearly in recent weeks.

It's all still in the early investigative stages, but the main thought appears to be that Delta replicates and attaches so much better than OG sars-cov-2 that by the time your immune system spins up antibodies, the infection already has a foothold. So now you've got this rush of antibodies that's going to help fight off the infection more quickly and still reduce your odds of hospitalization quite a bit, but it's not going to stop the infection in its tracks and you'll still be able to spread. The vaccines were much more effective at preventing infections of non-Delta because those took a couple of days longer to really set in, giving your immune system more opportunity to build up antibodies.

 

We are still suppressing hospitalizations here and in Israel, but not nearly as much as the UK managed with this latest wave.

E9kCc2oXMAwl7_7?format=jpg&name=large

 

via NYT

https://t.co/zfpdYOlaYU

 

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2 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

We are still suppressing hospitalizations here and in Israel, but not nearly as much as the UK managed with this latest wave.

The US is 30-40% more obese than Israel and UK so that's not surprising. 

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Israel's hospitalization vs case curves are matching the US very closely, though. The UK is the outlier. It's not obesity rates.

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7 hours ago, raBBit said:

The US is 30-40% more obese than Israel and UK so that's not surprising. 

That doesn't explain all the current problems in the Philippines, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, etc.

There's no way to compare countries without controlling somehow for their health care systems, how universal enrollment in systems is, public vs. private hospital standard of care, etc.

The fact of that matter is that the bottom 33% in terms of economic mobility in the US (there's obviously some overlap with nutrition/obesity/poverty) receives a much lower standard of care than in the UK and Israel.  Many of that bottom 33% is currently unvaccinated, as well.   There's also a tremendous amount of distrust directed towards the government, the pharmaceutical industry, hospitals in general.

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With full FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine, I would expect more employers (and maybe venues like restaurants, theaters, etc.) to start requiring vaccines.  My employers is not requiring vaccines but is requiring weekly testing for everyone, vaccinated or not.  Testing will be a condition of employment.  If you refuse a test, you'll be sent home without pay.  Continued refusal will result in termination.  I wouldn't be surprised if the vaccine becomes required soon.

I think the rising cases, especially in areas with low vaccination rates, is causing more people to get vaccinated.  That's a good thing.  There will still be those who refuse it, but as more and more employers and venues start to require the vaccine, those anti-vaxxers will be shit out of luck.

It may take this third wave to actually get to the targeted 75%-80% vaccinated rate.  It's too bad it has to happen this way, but getting to that magic number was doomed as soon as everything became political.  Now it seems it's gone beyond politics into some other realm with Trump being booed when he encouraged his supports to get vaccinated.

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I don't do much research and kind of muddle along in life other than the vast amount of energy I put into the Whtie Sox but the thing I picked up on is that while fully vaccinated and wearing a mask I can get COVID but it should be similar to the common cold.  I am OK with that. 

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1 hour ago, hogan873 said:

Now it seems it's gone beyond politics into some other realm with Trump being booed when he encouraged his supports to get vaccinated.

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/13/996570855/disinformation-dozen-test-facebooks-twitters-ability-to-curb-vaccine-hoaxes

Quote

Researchers have found just 12 people are responsible for the bulk of the misleading claims and outright lies about COVID-19 vaccines that proliferate on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter.

I'm sure everybody has seen one of those misleading memes or false facts circulating on social media. They're all originating with a dozen people and getting spread like wildfire. I don't see it much with my friends but my parents see a lot more, mostly from friends from back in HS who are overwhelmingly white, conservative, with no education beyond HS. They will 100% believe what one of their friends shared on Facebook over what the CDC tells them.

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24 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

I don't do much research and kind of muddle along in life other than the vast amount of energy I put into the Whtie Sox but the thing I picked up on is that while fully vaccinated and wearing a mask I can get COVID but it should be similar to the common cold.  I am OK with that. 

Eh, from experience:

Day 1 and Day 2 - thought it was a cold, went through a box of tissues.

Day 3, got REAL tired, still just a runny nose. Slept through a work seminar despite my best efforts. Thank god it was no cameras and I knew the subject. At hand. By night, my muscles were sore.

Day 4: Get a test before work. Muscles start aching real bad, headache sets in. Get positive results mid-day. Check out work (which thankfully is work from home). Lost smell (couldn't smell a strong candle under my nose).

Day 5: Slept all day. Muscles feel brutalized - comparable to when I have seizures. Some brain fog.

Day 6: About the same, sleep slightly less. I can barely smell candles and deodorant if they're directly under my nose, but that's it. Brain fog clears up.

Day 7: Muscles begin to heal up, still sleep most of the day. 

Day 8: Doing mostly ok at this point. Tired, but moving about.

Day 9: Return to work on Monday. Sleepy, but get through it. Crash when work is done.

Day 10: Fine

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Harry Chappas said:

I don't do much research and kind of muddle along in life other than the vast amount of energy I put into the Whtie Sox but the thing I picked up on is that while fully vaccinated and wearing a mask I can get COVID but it should be similar to the common cold.  I am OK with that. 

You're much more protected against hospitalization and death, but it's not impossible. A non-severe case can still mean something similar to a bad case of influenza--knocked on your ass for a week or two, possibly long-term complications e.g. fatigue or headaches for months.

Vaccine efficacy begins waning after a few months, especially against Delta. If you're 6+ months out from your second shot, protection against infection is significantly reduced. Protection against hospitalization is still high but not as high.

 

Against all of that, you do have to weigh your personal risks and the risks to others in your household. We've still done some smaller family outdoor stuff lately, but will probably be skipping an indoor family thing this weekend because our kids aren't vaccinated. We haven't sat down inside a restaurant since February 2020 and probably won't be any time soon. But we're doing more than we did this time last year. Maybe that's smart, maybe not. None of its easy to judge.

Edited by StrangeSox

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12 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

That doesn't explain all the current problems in the Philippines, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, etc.

I wouldn't expect my post that had nothing to do with anything related to those countries to explain something going on in those countries. 

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See, it isn't "just" fat, stoopid southerners from shithole red states, it can also be fat, stoopud northerners from blue states as well:

Fat, anti-mask, anti vax politician on a ventilator

 

I'm REAALLY trying to not derive schadenfreude from this, since he and others were anti mask/anti vax. Rather, I will hope for his recovery, and the well-being of all stricken by this.

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1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

Vaccine efficacy begins waning after a few months, especially against Delta. If you're 6+ months out from your second shot, protection against infection is significantly reduced. Protection against hospitalization is still high but not as high.

Got a link that specifically references the timeline in the bolded? I'd read that there was a declination in efficacy over time, but I hadn't read anything that specifies a timeline to that end.

 

Thanks in advance.

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4 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Got a link that specifically references the timeline in the bolded? I'd read that there was a declination in efficacy over time, but I hadn't read anything that specifies a timeline to that end.

 

Thanks in advance.

Eric Topol tweets out a bunch of the studies being done in various countries.

 

 

Importantly, what we're mainly seeing is that we don't get that local sterilizing immunity that prevents infection because Delta comes on too fast, but your body is still spinning up those antibodies fairly quickly and the vaccines are very likely to keep you out of the hospital. Third shot boosters gets the level of antibodies floating around in your bloodstream back up to sterilizing levels so that you don't get infected in the first place.

 

 

 

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