COVID Thread Part Deux

[he gone.]

27 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

So if one of these guys kills an immunocompromised Balta because they decided that this wasn't a big deal, what should the consequences be?

There are many people with a compromised immune system. Many. They should be getting the vaccination. They should be in line for the booster when available. They should be focusing on what they can do personally to protect themselves (where they go, when they go, personal food choices, personal fitness choices, etc. etc.) 

You can't protect everybody and can't make decisions for a majority because of a minority. It's not a perfect world. I haven't seen my 100 year old grandma since Covid ... she's not comfortable with it even though Im vaccinated. she's very compromised. everybody knows someone who is compromised. unless youre proposing an Australian like response where the whole country locks down every time a case happens theres going to be consequences for actions. 

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, BrianAnderson said:

There are many people with a compromised immune system. Many. They should be getting the vaccination. They should be in line for the booster when available. They should be focusing on what they can do personally to protect themselves (where they go, when they go, personal food choices, personal fitness choices, etc. etc.) 

You can't protect everybody and can't make decisions for a majority because of a minority. It's not a perfect world. I haven't seen my 100 year old grandma since Covid ... she's not comfortable with it even though Im vaccinated. she's very compromised. everybody knows someone who is compromised. unless youre proposing an Australian like response where the whole country locks down every time a case happens theres going to be consequences for actions. 

There are a class of people who are unprotectible, and you brought up the topic of personal responsibility.  So instead of dancing around it, if someone who has done everything they can, gets infected by someone who is intentionally NOT taking protective steps, what should their punishment be?  Keep in mind, we have laws on the books in similar situations for STDs will actually charge them with a felony.

[StrangeSox]

2 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

I would say that the numbers of those <18 requiring hospitalization have jumped from .27 per 100,000 in January 2021, or 2.7 visits per million to now .48  per 100,000 or 4.8 per a million. So it definitely is worse and more dangerous. I would also take away that still incredibly rare. 

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions

I think 1 per million is probably too many, but in the same breath it's about 2-3X more dangerous than a bad flu season in terms of hospitalization. I would argue the response is generally more than 2-3X that of a regular flu year. 

I also think, why not do hybrid? If your a parent who is concerned (rightfully so) then you have the option to have your kid learn to attend school via zoom. You also have the option to send them to school with a mask. You also have the option to send them to school without a mask. It gives various options of protection while offering a learning environment. Maybe not the best solution, but also provides alternatives for individuals for the next 2-4 months until they give the approval to administer to those over 2 years old. 

Other side note: I'm sure your ER friends are seeing some terrible shit. no doubt there. I have friends in the medical community who express the same point of view. I would only counter saying that those individuals are a bit skewed right? So i work in finance, and i generally think the financial markets are teetering and horrible stuff is going to happen. Am i right? probably to extent, but also very wrong since it'll likely be okay. I'm just in the middle of it every day. Talk to a cop .... they'll have a skewed outlook on violence, drugs, etc. Talk to a mechanic and they'll have a view on why "they just don't make cars like they used to". Talk to a server about restaurant business ... they'll come away with a negative view. Truth is, those most involved don't have the luxury of being able to zoom out. They go to work and see another dying person each day. They say another child covid case. etc. 

Its also really tough to look at things objectively when it involves health and deaths. humans tend to be pretty irrational about death in general. So yes, it may be a little harsh to be critical on a topic like covid, but also it takes a little bit of that perspective because the US and World population is a big ship ... it's hard to turn big ships. You generally need to keep it moving forward, when you don't all sorts of consequences happen. so it's more a risk reward thing in my midn. 

So literally twice as worse and we're already seeing ICU's and PICU's filling up in hotspots, and add to that complete burnout in emergency medicine that's going to take years to recove from.

[he gone.]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

There are a class of people who are unprotectible, and you brought up the topic of personal responsibility.  So instead of dancing around it, if someone who has done everything they can, gets infected by someone who is intentionally NOT taking protective steps, what should their punishment be?  Keep in mind, we have laws on the books in similar situations for STDs will actually charge them with a felony.

Nothing ... good luck proving in court that ONE individual was responsible. It's a silly "what if" argument. 

What if someone who has the vaccine contracts it and passes it to a person who is unprotectible? 

It's a rabbit hole and has no basis in reality. These are the type of back and forth conversations that add nothing to move anything forward. It's trying to catch people in a gotcha moment. or a "you dont care about people, you're a bad person" argument. its baseless, pointless drivel. it's trying to pit "us vs them". bad narrative. 

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, BrianAnderson said:

Nothing ... good luck proving in court that ONE individual was responsible. It's a silly "what if" argument. 

What if someone who has the vaccine contracts it and passes it to a person who is unprotectible? 

It's a rabbit hole and has no basis in reality. These are the type of back and forth conversations that add nothing to move anything forward. It's trying to catch people in a gotcha moment. or a "you dont care about people, you're a bad person" argument. its baseless, pointless drivel. it's trying to pit "us vs them". bad narrative. 

There are literally laws on the books that do exactly this under this same guise of "personal responsibility". 

[almagest]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

There are literally laws on the books that do exactly this under this same guise of "personal responsibility". 

Covid is not an STD. There's a clear trail of evidence in those cases. Covid spread is near impossible to trace to a single person.

Edited September 2, 2021 by almagest

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, almagest said:

Covid is not an STD. There's a clear trail of evidence in those cases. Covid spread is near impossible to trace to a single person.

We CAN trace these things.  We can get back all of the way to patient zero with these outbreaks.  We just don't want to, because then people could actually be held responsible.

[almagest]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

We CAN trace these things.  We can get back all of the way to patient zero with these outbreaks.  We just don't want to, because then people could actually be held responsible.

No, we can't. We can model them and arrive at a reasonable location, date and time. We know cases diagnosed and who those people are. We cannot map out who was where when they were infected, nor who was near them that may have contributed to the infection, nor if it was one person or multiple people who contributed to the infection.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, almagest said:

No, we can't. We can model them and arrive at a reasonable location, date and time. We know cases diagnosed and who those people are. We cannot map out who was where when they were infected, nor who was near them that may have contributed to the infection, nor if it was one person or multiple people who contributed to the infection.

With modern technology, we can.  We just won't.

[almagest]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

With modern technology, we can.  We just won't.

You keep making this assertion without any sort of evidence to back it up. I just explained why this is an incredibly difficult problem to solve. Please outline how this granular tracking process would work, or provide resources that do.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, almagest said:

You keep making this assertion without any sort of evidence to back it up. I just explained why this is an incredibly difficult problem to solve. Please outline how this granular tracking process would work, or provide resources that do.

They are doing exactly this in other countries as we speak with technology, tracking, and testing.

[almagest]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

They are doing exactly this in other countries as we speak with technology, tracking, and testing.

Which countries? How are they prosecuting or even identifying people who are suspected "spreaders"?

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, almagest said:

Which countries? How are they prosecuting or even identifying people who are suspected "spreaders"?

The US is the one with these personal responsibility laws on the books, which of course are only selectively enforces when the right responsibilities are being violated.

[almagest]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

The US is the one with these personal responsibility laws on the books, which of course are only selectively enforces when the right responsibilities are being violated.

This doesn't answer any of the questions I asked. Which countries? And how are these countries prosecuting or even identifying people who are suspected "spreaders"? Which of them have identified "patient zero" in their country?

[Kyyle23]

Pretty sure South Korea and New Zealand use an app for contact tracing

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-health-advice-public/contact-tracing-covid-19#appnotifs

they aren't prosecuting because they stop the people and quarantine them immediately.  

[RibbieRubarb]

9 minutes ago, almagest said:

This doesn't answer any of the questions I asked. Which countries? And how are these countries prosecuting or even identifying people who are suspected "spreaders"? Which of them have identified "patient zero" in their country?

Viral genomics is a real thing being used around the world.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/who-infected-trump-white-house-contact-trace-coronavirus-genomics-find-source

Edited September 2, 2021 by RibbieRubarb

[almagest]

8 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Pretty sure South Korea and New Zealand use an app for contact tracing

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-health-advice-public/contact-tracing-covid-19#appnotifs

they aren't prosecuting because they stop the people and quarantine them immediately.  

 

4 minutes ago, RibbieRubarb said:

Viral genomics is a real thing being used around the world.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/who-infected-trump-white-house-contact-trace-coronavirus-genomics-find-source

Thank you both for providing real answers.

[he gone.]

That sounds like a great alternative. SS2k has convinced me. I want to live in that world. Let's all lockdown like China and Australia. Then if i go to the grocery store and catch covid as a vaccinated individual and give it to some obese 75 year old i get to go to jail!! personal responsibility! 

 

  And this is why this thread goes off the rails every ... single ... time ... 

 

the argument went from talking about the rate of hospitalizations in kids, to how and when do we move away from current protocols, what are the reasonable next steps, to we should prosecute and track every individual like some sort of nanny state government. shocking. 

[Chisoxfn]

26 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

With modern technology, we can.  We just won't.

For what - spend all that money on the exceptions. How is anyone going to prove that they were aware of the symptoms at the time, etc, especially since many are asymptomatic to begin with.  Are you really going to fault someone who shows up in a store, doesn't know they are sick, doesn't wear a mask (because in that jurisidiction it is there right not to)....I mean come on now. That is getting to the point of extreme.  

Reality is - at some point we are going to have to live with this - likely after the rest of the population has access to a good and safe vaccine (i.e., children who are not yet eligible) and at that point -> boosters should get improved and we are going to have to deal with this.  

[Tony]

1 minute ago, Chisoxfn said:

For what - spend all that money on the exceptions. How is anyone going to prove that they were aware of the symptoms at the time, etc, especially since many are asymptomatic to begin with.  Are you really going to fault someone who shows up in a store, doesn't know they are sick, doesn't wear a mask (because in that jurisidiction it is there right not to)....I mean come on now. That is getting to the point of extreme.  

Reality is - at some point we are going to have to live with this - likely after the rest of the population has access to a good and safe vaccine (i.e., children who are not yet eligible) and at that point -> boosters should get improved and we are going to have to deal with this.  

I don't want to speak for everyone, but I think the frustration comes from.....we didn't have to just "live with this." But because a bunch of people are so obsessed with party lines....we're probably going to have to live with it, you're right. 

[Kyyle23]

Just now, Chisoxfn said:

For what - spend all that money on the exceptions. How is anyone going to prove that they were aware of the symptoms at the time, etc, especially since many are asymptomatic to begin with.  Are you really going to fault someone who shows up in a store, doesn't know they are sick, doesn't wear a mask (because in that jurisidiction it is there right not to)....I mean come on now. That is getting to the point of extreme.  

Reality is - at some point we are going to have to live with this - likely after the rest of the population has access to a good and safe vaccine (i.e., children who are not yet eligible) and at that point -> boosters should get improved and we are going to have to deal with this.  

I mean there is already stories of unvaccinated teachers and front line workers going into work with the symptoms and starting infection clusters.  
 

https://www.kltv.com/2021/08/29/unmasked-elementary-school-teacher-infects-half-class-with-covid-19-cdc-says/

sure there will be the people who weren't showing symptoms and ended up spreading it,  but more and more we are seeing stories of outright deniers and people claiming it was a hoax going about their lives with symptoms and infecting others.  

[Chisoxfn]

12 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Pretty sure South Korea and New Zealand use an app for contact tracing

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-health-advice-public/contact-tracing-covid-19#appnotifs

they aren't prosecuting because they stop the people and quarantine them immediately.  

Big difference between your comment here and what was being implied.  But yes - clearly we should have done more of that -> more people aware, more you can prevent.  And as bad as Delta is -> things are still significantly better today than they were a year ago.  All of these Delta spikes are with EVERYTHING open...yes people wear masks, etc, but we have all schools open, sporting events, etc.  The way of life is much closer to normal today than it was a year ago. 

Is the risk the same as pre-covid....no not yet - but we are still trending in a good direction, despite this bump and if anything this bump combined with FDA approval seem to be getting a lot of people who previously weren't vaccinated...vaccinated...which is a massive plus.   14M got vaccinated in August for 1st time -> up 4M from July. 

If I assume that the population eligible for a vaccine is 300M (not sure how close that is - but I presume that is +/- 20M)...all of August vaccines would increase the partially vaccinated population by 5%  in one month -> or entire US population rate would have increased by ~4% (assuming 365M pop).  2 or 3 more months of that + people getting boosters to strengthen immunity and it could put things in a pretty good spot heading into what normally would be a tough time with fall/winter coming.  Or at least that is my optimstic hope.....

 

Note: None of my analysis factors in that 4M individuals contracted COVID during August - which means for those that recovered, that is 4M more who at the very least have some level of increased immunity as well (not saying that is the way I'd want to get my immunity - but statistically it still counts as a partial immunity too).  

[Chisoxfn]

8 minutes ago, Tony said:

I don't want to speak for everyone, but I think the frustration comes from.....we didn't have to just "live with this." But because a bunch of people are so obsessed with party lines....we're probably going to have to live with it, you're right. 

Unfortunately -> you are right, we made matters worse as a country, however, globally this would have always ended up this way...when you consider the more rural, less affluent countries, etc...you would always have variations like Delta that pop up and expose.  But yes...the curve could have been reduced...the impacts smaller, etc...but I think the reality of wiping this off the face of the earth was always extremely difficult when you think more globally -> that said, it still amazes me how many people fight this. 

I should point out - I think all teachers should be vaccinated anyway - this is fully approved at this point - so rules should apply similar to measles and other items.  

[Chisoxfn]

6 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

I mean there is already stories of unvaccinated teachers and front line workers going into work with the symptoms and starting infection clusters.  
 

https://www.kltv.com/2021/08/29/unmasked-elementary-school-teacher-infects-half-class-with-covid-19-cdc-says/

sure there will be the people who weren't showing symptoms and ended up spreading it,  but more and more we are seeing stories of outright deniers and people claiming it was a hoax going about their lives with symptoms and infecting others.  

Lets be clear in this example - person thought they had allergies...instead had COVID. Someone can say they still shoudln't have or whatever...but this wasn't someone who woke up, tested positive for COVID, or who was feeling terrible who walked into a school.  The point is - masks matter, etc...but I'm not about to be ushering said teacher to prison....come on.  

[Kyyle23]

1 minute ago, Chisoxfn said:

Big difference between your comment here and what was being implied.  But yes - clearly we should have done more of that -> more people aware, more you can prevent.  And as bad as Delta is -> things are still significantly better today than they were a year ago.  All of these Delta spikes are with EVERYTHING open...yes people wear masks, etc, but we have all schools open, sporting events, etc.  The way of life is much closer to normal today than it was a year ago. 

Is the risk the same as pre-covid....no not yet - but we are still trending in a good direction, despite this bump and if anything this bump combined with FDA approval seem to be getting a lot of people who previously weren't vaccinated...vaccinated...which is a massive plus.   14M got vaccinated in August for 1st time -> up 4M from July. 

If I assume that the population eligible for a vaccine is 300M (not sure how close that is - but I presume that is +/- 20M)...all of August vaccines would increase the partially vaccinated population by 5%  in one month -> or entire US population rate would have increased by ~4% (assuming 365M pop).  2 or 3 more months of that + people getting boosters to strengthen immunity and it could put things in a pretty good spot heading into what normally would be a tough time with fall/winter coming.  Or at least that is my optimstic hope.....

 

Note: None of my analysis factors in that 4M individuals contracted COVID during August - which means for those that recovered, that is 4M more who at the very least have some level of increased immunity as well (not saying that is the way I'd want to get my immunity - but statistically it still counts as a partial immunity too).  

Wait what is the difference here?  Our country straight up has refused contact tracing and those countries embraced it and have become extremely successful in mitigating the virus while using it.  Almagest was asking SS2k5 for proof that other countries use contact tracing.  I understand that they aren't prosecuting which is what SS2k5 Was asking if we should do it, but I answered his question