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Colome's Hat

Cease this year's Contreras?

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I have been thinking about this since Cease's dominant start against the Blue Jays.  Is he this year's Contreras?  Is he the Starting Pitcher that comes out of nowhere to end up becoming the ace of the staff?  Now I don't think this is an apples to apples comparison for several reasons.  One, I don't think Cease will be able to top Lynn or Rodon this year.  I would not start Cease in Game one of the playoffs.  I also don't think Contreras came out of nowhere.  For example, his main issue in the first half of 2005 was a lack of run support.  However the splits don't lie.  His ERA was at about 4.5 going into August and it fell almost a run by the end of the year.  Cease's ERA hasn't ballooned as much but I also think he's gotten luckier than Contreras did that year.

The metrics on Cease and his stats don't lie.  He's been one of the best pitchers in the AL this year.  We don't talk about it because he sometimes infuriates us but he will blow by 200 strikeouts very easily and I believe his swing and miss rates is one of the highest in baseball.  And in his last seven starts, he's 4-0 with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.  He had flashes of brilliance last year and his ERA was pretty low last year but the metrics and the stats didn't hold up.  He got very lucky and towards the end of the year it caught up with him.  

There are still some downsides for sure.  BABIP is still quite high, although it's likely because he throws so hard and is getting more strikeouts.  Also he's given up quite a few home runs this year.

Still, while I would never say that I think he should be our Game 1 starter, I now trust him to be able to pitch in big games, something I don't think I would have last year.

I also think that in two years, the Quintana deal will look all the more devastating for the Cubs.  I think Cease may well be a Cy Young award winner in the future.  It's often been said that of pure stuff, he has the best in the White Sox rotation..

Anyways would love to know other people's thoughts on this. Are we looking at the surprise breakout starting pitcher on the White Sox rotation?  And I don't think there is any doubt that he has earned a spot in the playoff rotation.

Edited by Colome's Hat

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Dylan Cease has always had this ceiling.  You can't teach his arm.  I know many were ready to give up on him after less than a season's worth of starts, but sometimes it takes a while.  Especially for a taller guy, sometimes it just takes a while to be able to get all of those mechanics lined up.  You can see him lose that feeling still occasionally, heck we saw it a couple of times yesterday.  But the key is that it happens less and less, and he is more and more consistent.  The kid has a chance to be one of the best in baseball.

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IP/Start: Giolito 5.9, Lynn 5.7, Rodon 5.7, Cease 5.3

WHIP: Rodon 0.97, Lynn 1.08, Giolito 1.10, Cease 1.22

K/BB: Rodon 5.26, Giolito 4.07, Lynn 3.62, Cease 3.36

This has been a breakout year for Cease no doubt, but he has some work to do if he wants to be on the level of the top 3 in this rotation, though his stuff indicates that it's definitely possible for him to get there.
 

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3 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

IP/Start: Giolito 5.9, Lynn 5.7, Rodon 5.7, Cease 5.3

WHIP: Rodon 0.97, Lynn 1.08, Giolito 1.10, Cease 1.22

K/BB: Rodon 5.26, Giolito 4.07, Lynn 3.62, Cease 3.36

This has been a breakout year for Cease no doubt, but he has some work to do if he wants to be on the level of the top 3 in this rotation, though his stuff indicates that it's definitely possible for him to get there.
 

Do Lopez!! Ooh - oh - ooh! Do Lopez!!!

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I think Cease is a better pitcher, but the comparison to 2005 to me is Jon Garland. Obviously different times and a different game, but he was a struggling pitcher prior to 2005 and came out with 18 wins in '05 to give the team an edge at the #4 pitcher spot. 

Edited by raBBit
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4 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Do Lopez!! Ooh - oh - ooh! Do Lopez!!!

Lopez has a 0.71 WHIP and 5.29 K/BB, but that's in 34 innings spread over starting and relieving, so not the kind of sample size you can use to compare to full-time starters.

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4 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

so not the kind of sample size you can use to compare to full-time starters.

Of course. Still bonkers.

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Just now, 35thstreetswarm said:

God, I hope so.  If Cease turns into 2005 Contreras down the stretch we'll probably win the World Series.

I still salivate about seeing this lineup daily:

1.) SS - Anderson

2.) CF - Robert

3.) 1B - Abreu

4.) LF - Eloy

5.) C - Grandal

6.) 3B - Moncada

7.) DH - Vaughn

8.) RF - Engle / 9.) 2B - Hernandez 

8.) 2B - Hernandez / 9.) RF - The Billy

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1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I think he's this year's Dylan Cease.  There are not a lot of similarities with the 2005 team IMO.  

Eh, I'm sort of in the middle on this. 

On one hand......right now it seems like the Sox are running with a very solid Top 4 in Lynn-Rodon-Giolito-Cease. Different pitchers, but similar to the Sox rocking Buehrle-Garcia-Garland-Contreras. The heart of both teams seemed to occupy 1B, and Eloy and Dye seem incredibly similar to me. The difference-making, veteran FA catcher also sort of holds true in both cases. 

Aside from that.....I would agree the two teams are pretty different. This 2021 squad is much more "star heavy" and I think the talent on the 2021 teams blows 2005 out of the water. 2005 was in a lot of ways an incredible collection of decent parts that made things work together. 2021 seems more like a powerhouse full of high-end pieces that when all on the field at the same time.......few can match. I didn't feel that way in 2005. 

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2 minutes ago, Tony said:

Eh, I'm sort of in the middle on this. 

On one hand......right now it seems like the Sox are running with a very solid Top 4 in Lynn-Rodon-Giolito-Cease. Different pitchers, but similar to the Sox rocking Buehrle-Garcia-Garland-Contreras. The heart of both teams seemed to occupy 1B, and Eloy and Dye seem incredibly similar to me. The difference-making, veteran FA catcher also sort of holds true in both cases. 

Aside from that.....I would agree the two teams are pretty different. This 2021 squad is much more "star heavy" and I think the talent on the 2021 teams blows 2005 out of the water. 2005 was in a lot of ways an incredible collection of decent parts that made things work together. 2021 seems more like a powerhouse full of high-end pieces that when all on the field at the same time.......few can match. I didn't feel that way in 2005. 

Right.  I wrote similar but deleted it as I didn't think I phrased it properly.  The 2005 club was a once in a lifetime collection of guys, mostly vets and mostly journeymen, that came together at the right time in October.  God bless them for winning it all, but as we saw it wasn't a model for sustained success -- the 2021 club is a sustained success model, regardless of any postseason magic this year.

Edited by chitownsportsfan
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35 minutes ago, hi8is said:

I still salivate about seeing this lineup daily:

1.) SS - Anderson

2.) CF - Robert

3.) 1B - Abreu

4.) LF - Eloy

5.) C - Grandal

6.) 3B - Moncada

7.) DH - Vaughn

8.) RF - Engle / 9.) 2B - Hernandez 

8.) 2B - Hernandez / 9.) RF - The Billy

Whar Leury? Whar?!?!

 

I am kidding of course. 

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4 minutes ago, XplodingScorbord said:

Whar Leury? Whar?!?!

 

I am kidding of course. 

He’s this years Carlos Sanchez.

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57 minutes ago, Tony said:

Eh, I'm sort of in the middle on this. 

On one hand......right now it seems like the Sox are running with a very solid Top 4 in Lynn-Rodon-Giolito-Cease. Different pitchers, but similar to the Sox rocking Buehrle-Garcia-Garland-Contreras. The heart of both teams seemed to occupy 1B, and Eloy and Dye seem incredibly similar to me. The difference-making, veteran FA catcher also sort of holds true in both cases. 

Aside from that.....I would agree the two teams are pretty different. This 2021 squad is much more "star heavy" and I think the talent on the 2021 teams blows 2005 out of the water. 2005 was in a lot of ways an incredible collection of decent parts that made things work together. 2021 seems more like a powerhouse full of high-end pieces that when all on the field at the same time.......few can match. I didn't feel that way in 2005. 

100% in agreement with these comparisons.  This year's team when all healthy is by far the best squad including 2005 and for that matter 1959.

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Cease has the best stuff on the staff, it's just a matter of him learning to use it and become a pitcher.

The 2005 staff had far greater experience that the current rotation. Ozzie also let them pitch a lot further a long in games, though between the COVID shortened season and inexperience (or in Keuchel's case ineffectiveness, less is more prudent at least at this stage. Those are the two primary differences between the two staffs. They can win it this year, but they will be better suited with added experience if they have Rodon in the following 2-3 seasons.

(All stats regular season - playoffs excluded, starts = starts coming into the 2005 season)

2005

  • Buehrle (236 2/3 IP, 139 previous year starts)
  • Garcia (228 IP, 186 starts)
  • Garland (221 IP, 127 starts)
  • Contreras (204 2/3 IP, 218 starts (71 MLB starts + 147 Cuban League))
  • Hernandez (128 1/3 IP, 139 Starts)

2021

  • Giolito (154 IP, 84 starts)
  • Cease (143 2/3 IP, 26 starts)
  • Keuchel (136 2/3 IP, 213 starts)
  • Lynn (135 2/3 IP, 236 starts)
  • Rodon (114 2/3 IP, 92 starts)

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If we want to talk about 05 vs 21, the difference is the offense.  We have as much, or probably even more pitching than we had in 05, but the offense is on a different planet.

 

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2 hours ago, hi8is said:

I still salivate about seeing this lineup daily:

1.) SS - Anderson

2.) CF - Robert

3.) 1B - Abreu

4.) LF - Eloy

5.) C - Grandal

6.) 3B - Moncada

7.) DH - Vaughn

8.) RF - Engle / 9.) 2B - Hernandez 

8.) 2B - Hernandez / 9.) RF - The Billy

Get a new manager if you want to see that daily.

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1 hour ago, poppysox said:

100% in agreement with these comparisons.  This year's team when all healthy is by far the best squad including 2005 and for that matter 1959.

I think maybe 94 team is best comparison?  Superstars like Thomas, Raines and Ventura and a bunch of pretty good others.  Four power starting pitchers.  Thing about this team is everyone is 26 or younger.  

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2 hours ago, Tony said:

Aside from that.....I would agree the two teams are pretty different. This 2021 squad is much more "star heavy" and I think the talent on the 2021 teams blows 2005 out of the water. 2005 was in a lot of ways an incredible collection of decent parts that made things work together. 2021 seems more like a powerhouse full of high-end pieces that when all on the field at the same time.......few can match. I didn't feel that way in 2005. 

While true, that 2005 team can catch the ball all around unlike this squad. 2021 Sox have the better talent in the bullpen but that 05' bullpen everyone was clicking on all cylinders (and some guys had career years). To this day I don't think I've seen a Sox team better defensively than that team.

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49 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If we want to talk about 05 vs 21, the difference is the offense.  We have as much, or probably even more pitching than we had in 05, but the offense is on a different planet.

 

What I remember of the 2005 team was the crazy bullpen...a bunch of fringe prospects and journeymen became unhittable for a year.  Politte, Cotts and Hermanson pitched every game with sub 2.00 ERA.  Sort of the opposite of this team with undeniable talent with unspeakable results.  

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