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Jose Abreu’s Greatness, and the Greatness We Missed [FG]

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Kevin Goldstein article 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jose-abreus-greatness-and-the-greatness-we-missed/

The reality of the world and international politics kept us from getting six more years of Abreu and more than a decade’s worth of seasons from Gurriel, and it likely cost them Hall of Fame chances that fall somewhere between significant and likely. Maybe LaRussa wasn’t so wrong after all.

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It is going to be damn emotional for me if I can get to a playoff game and finally cheer for our MVP in a playoff game. The man has not taken the easy way in his baseball career, chose this team - and how often has that happened - and stuck with this team and done nothing but deliver.

And there was a huge chance he'd never get to the big stage despite it. Last year happened, but getting a real stadium full of us for him. I can't wait. 

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I really hate to be "that guy". However, even Abreu's 7 year peak WAR and WAR per 162 aren't really close to HOF level. That goes for the vast majority of his numbers. 

He's been "really good" for very long, but not a HOF'er. In fact, (god I hate being this guy because I love him, too) between his rookie year and his COVID shortened MVP season? He sort of just ranged somewhere from "solid" to "good". 

But... maybe his age 22 or 23 to 26 seasons would have been as good as his rookie year. Who knows? 

Edited by Richie
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9 minutes ago, Richie said:

I really hate to be "that guy". However, even Abreu's 7 year peak WAR and WAR per 162 aren't really close to HOF level. That goes for the vast majority of his numbers. 

He's been "really good" for very long, but not a HOF'er. In fact, (god I hate being this guy because I love him, too) between his rookie year and his COVID shortened MVP season? He sort of just ranged somewhere from "solid" to "good". 

But... maybe his age 22 or 23 to 26 seasons would have been as good as his rookie year. Who knows? 

Abreu's probably in the 40-45 WAR range by now had he played those 6 years in the states. Depending on how he ages, he could probably get another 10 WAR somehow for the rest of his career. He'd probably end up borderline in the best case scenario. 

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17 minutes ago, Richie said:

I really hate to be "that guy". However, even Abreu's 7 year peak WAR and WAR per 162 aren't really close to HOF level. That goes for the vast majority of his numbers. 

He's been "really good" for very long, but not a HOF'er. In fact, (god I hate being this guy because I love him, too) between his rookie year and his COVID shortened MVP season? He sort of just ranged somewhere from "solid" to "good". 

But... maybe his age 22 or 23 to 26 seasons would have been as good as his rookie year. Who knows? 

The point of the write up was that MLB missed some of his most productive years, which could have put him on the road to the HOF, not that he was a HOF today.

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4 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Abreu's probably in the 40-45 WAR range by now had he played those 6 years in the states. Depending on how he ages, he could probably get another 10 WAR somehow for the rest of his career. He'd probably end up borderline in the best case scenario. 

He's only 27.5. Average HOF 1B average 66.9 according to baseball reference. His 7 year peak WAR is only 25.5. HOF 1B are 42.7 on average. So, even "cumulative numbers" aside from missing those first few years - his peak/prime years still don't really come that close to that of a HOF 1B's. There's just nothing that adds up here. 

I think people really forget how "above average to okay to decent" he was as an offensive first baseman between his rookie year and the 2020 COVID year. He's only eclipsed a 4 WAR one time since that rookie season (yes, I realize he would have in 2020). Most years were in the 2's and low 3's in WAR. 

Black Ink
  Batting - 22 (114), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink
  Batting - 88 (328), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor
  Batting - 67 (321), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
  Batting - 20 (833), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS
  First Base (84th):
    27.5 career WAR | 25.5 7yr-peak WAR | 26.5 JAWS | 4.1 WAR/162
  Average HOF 1B (out of 21):
    66.9 career WAR | 42.7 7yr-peak WAR | 54.8 JAWS | 5.0 WAR/162

 

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3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The point of the write up was that MLB missed some of his most productive years, which could have put him on the road to the HOF, not that he was a HOF today.

Given how far behind he is. Coupled with the fact that even his peak and per season numbers don't really come close to HOF status? I hate to say it - I really do. I don't see how that happens. Even if he has like 3 years comparable to his rookie season tacked onto his resume? He still falls short. 

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25 minutes ago, Richie said:

He's only 27.5. Average HOF 1B average 66.9 according to baseball reference. His 7 year peak WAR is only 25.5. HOF 1B are 42.7 on average. So, even "cumulative numbers" aside from missing those first few years - his peak/prime years still don't really come that close to that of a HOF 1B's. There's just nothing that adds up here. 

I think people really forget how "above average to okay to decent" he was as an offensive first baseman between his rookie year and the 2020 COVID year. He's only eclipsed a 4 WAR one time since that rookie season (yes, I realize he would have in 2020). Most years were in the 2's and low 3's in WAR. 

Black Ink
  Batting - 22 (114), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink
  Batting - 88 (328), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor
  Batting - 67 (321), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
  Batting - 20 (833), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS
  First Base (84th):
    27.5 career WAR | 25.5 7yr-peak WAR | 26.5 JAWS | 4.1 WAR/162
  Average HOF 1B (out of 21):
    66.9 career WAR | 42.7 7yr-peak WAR | 54.8 JAWS | 5.0 WAR/162

 

So if he could have picked up 10 to 15 WAR at a minimum early, he'd be a lot closer.  Way closer if he had some years like his rookie year, which is what Goldstein was saying. 

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I think the point is we missed his best years, added to his MLB stats it isn't put of the realm of possibility that he becomes a HOF

Edited by joesaiditstrue

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This was a good article. I think I had heard the story about his demonstration day on a Future Sox podcast already. :)

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Eh, I know many disagree but if Jose is able to somehow remain very productive until age 40 while being a DH, the whole HOF conversation really does change IMO. In that scenario he puts himself in the neighborhood of 400 homers and with the lens of his missing 6 years of playing time there’s a case to be made he would have made it to 500 with a full career. Keep in mind he’s very well liked, keeps himself in tremendous shape, works very hard at the game, and is a great clubhouse guy. 

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13 hours ago, joesaiditstrue said:

I think the point is we missed his best years, added to his MLB stats it isn't put of the realm of possibility that he becomes a HOF

I know the aging curve isn’t the same since they got the steroids out of the game, but his 26 and under seasons being described as his best years still doesn’t sound quite right to me.

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On 9/1/2021 at 4:58 PM, Richie said:

I really hate to be "that guy". However, even Abreu's 7 year peak WAR and WAR per 162 aren't really close to HOF level. That goes for the vast majority of his numbers. 

He's been "really good" for very long, but not a HOF'er. In fact, (god I hate being this guy because I love him, too) between his rookie year and his COVID shortened MVP season? He sort of just ranged somewhere from "solid" to "good". 

But... maybe his age 22 or 23 to 26 seasons would have been as good as his rookie year. Who knows? 


With 3-4 prior seasons similar to his rookie year, he’s at least in the conversation.  And he was a monster in Cuba those years.  But who knows.

Edited by bighurt574

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