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MLB 2021-2 off season thread

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1 hour ago, soxfan3530 said:

It appears the most  optimistic/realistic offseason at this point would be the following:

- Graveman to boost the bullpen

- Kimbrel traded for a 2B like Segura and maybe a backup catcher/depth

- Signing Conforto to play RF

- A low-end starting pitcher for depth/insurance like Duffy, Smyly, Hill.

If that comes to fruition, are we considering that a successful offseason? Just curious to where everyone stands on this scenario. 

Yeah - that is a pretty damn good team. I would prefer something better in the rotation - i.e., more of a Bassit, but that team is better and the Sox can always bolster the rotation closer to the deadline.  

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

I'm not saying sox are (lol) or that we should target Story. But, I really think adding just an average defensive 2b would be worse than adding a right handed 2b.

If Story is somehow an afterthought in the market and gets a shorter term deal - I do think the Sox might dip into the bank and make a splash here. 

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10 minutes ago, Flash said:

Let's do some business with the Reds. Castillo and Winker would solve a lot of issues. Might have to take on Moustakas contract but he might be serviceable at 2B and insurance for Yoan. 

I'm not opposed to trading to fill our spots. In fact, While its a good FA market in general, it is not so good specifically for the Sox holes. The Trade market could be better for the Sox. Just know, that Winker offensively seems a perfect fit for us, but he is terrible defensively...another DH type. Castillo & Gray our possibilities for SP. Pass on Moose.

The A's are also a good poetential partner white, Bassitt, Manea, Montas, & Tony Kemp at 2b.

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1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Gonna say the same thing I said about Hernandez when we acquired him about Segura.

It's no where near a guarantee that Jean Segura outperforms Cesar Hernandez next year. Paying three times the price for Segura than Hernandez all so you can shed Kimbrel's salary is bad process. Segura would be the favorite over Hernandez in terms of expected performance, after normalizing expected PA's, it's 2.1 vs 2.5 via Steamer. wRC+ difference is 4 points (98 vs 102). Those two guys are way too similar for that to be the upgrade over Hernandez imo.

Depends on what else you get with Segura.  Picking up Kimbrel’s contract to pay Segura $14.5M is a bad deal full stop.  If you also get a young cost-controlled catcher in Marchan who can possibly be the backup this year, it suddenly becomes interesting.  I still would have rather not picked up the option and pursued Gausman, but it may not be as simply as that when you think of the long-term implications.

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59 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

If Leury had the same amount of AB's last year and stretched out his production equally in those extra 90+ AB's, he would have been worth roughly 2.4 fWAR. Jean Segura was worth 2.5 fWAR. 

I think Soxtalk has overvalued Jean Segura. From one person calling him an All-Star type player, to others thinking he's a huge upgrade. Segura could very easily be the same player as Leury Garcia/Cesar Hernandez. 

Instead of looking at just the latest year, how do their track records compare?

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16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Instead of looking at just the latest year, how do their track records compare?

Let's not forget the stretching out of plate appearances equally. 

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10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Instead of looking at just the latest year, how do their track records compare?

Since 2019:

Cesar Hernandez - 1565 PA's, 5.9 fWAR, 2.26 per 600 - 94 wRC+, 313 wOBA, 261/326/399
Jean Seguara - 1402 PA's, 5.7 fWAR, 2.43 per 600 - 101 wRC+, 327 wOBA, 282/337/427

Pretty similar players over the past three years by fWAR, and by other metrics close enough where it wouldn't be crazy to think Hernandez could equal Segura's production next year.

As I said, I think Segura is likely to be slightly better, but it's not enough of a guarantee to pay him 3 times as much money.

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Just now, SonofaRoache said:

Let's not forget the stretching out of plate appearances equally. 

I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect Leury Garcia to perform pretty similarly to his YTD performance through 474 PA's through an additional 90 PA's. Even if he regressed towards his career averages, the overall impact of difference between his career averages and his production in 2021 through the course of 90 PA's is negligible and not meaningful in the given assessment. 

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38 minutes ago, Bunt Ritual said:

yeah, the Sox with their 30th ranked farm system could land Castillo and Winker without a problem.

Yeah, no chance the reds would want someone like vaughn, sheets, or Crochet. No use for a Cespedes, Burger, Benjamin,  Ramos or Montgomery. You do realize that the organizations farm rankings took a hit because the sox graduated a lot of their prospects? They also don't have good evaluations on guys that haven't played much because they were just drafted. Also, an influx of some prospects may still come from the Kimbrel trade. 

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1 minute ago, Quin said:

lmao

4icnn0kp4r281.jpg

Leury Garcia is probably more deserving to be the 6th guy in that picture than Simmons. 

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13 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

Yeah, no chance the reds would want someone like vaughn, sheets, or Crochet. No use for a Cespedes, Burger, Benjamin,  Ramos or Montgomery. You do realize that the organizations farm rankings took a hit because the sox graduated a lot of their prospects? They also don't have good evaluations on guys that haven't played much because they were just drafted. Also, an influx of some prospects may still come from the Kimbrel trade. 

Ok, so we would literally have to empty the farm to acquire them which would then just create a whole list of other problems. 

Personally, I don't see any influx of prospects coming from a Kimbrel trade, so I don't know why you would count on that either.

Edited by Bunt Ritual

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Has anyone dove into Winker's defense? 

I foolishly thought he was a decent defender because I remembered him playing some CF.  Evidently the metrics say he is a poor left fielder so I have no clue how that could possibly work in RF.

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2 minutes ago, whitesoxwinner said:

Are we sure there is much of a market for kimbrel?

I think they fucked that up which means he's going to be closing games this year, with Hendriks in the 8th. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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1 minute ago, GREEDY said:

Has anyone dove into Winker's defense? 

I foolishly thought he was a decent defender because I remembered him playing some CF.  Evidently the metrics say he is a poor left fielder so I have no clue how that could possibly work in RF.

He's terrible on defense. 

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2 minutes ago, whitesoxwinner said:

Are we sure there is much of a market for kimbrel?

Tough to tell. I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't. Harold made it sound obvious there was a market for him and they weren't buying him out because of it. 

I just don't see why anybody would want him at 16m. 

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28 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Since 2019:

Cesar Hernandez - 1565 PA's, 5.9 fWAR, 2.26 per 600 - 94 wRC+, 313 wOBA, 261/326/399
Jean Seguara - 1402 PA's, 5.7 fWAR, 2.43 per 600 - 101 wRC+, 327 wOBA, 282/337/427

Pretty similar players over the past three years by fWAR, and by other metrics close enough where it wouldn't be crazy to think Hernandez could equal Segura's production next year.

As I said, I think Segura is likely to be slightly better, but it's not enough of a guarantee to pay him 3 times as much money.

Sorry, I should have been more specific, I meant Leury’s track record.  Yes, he had a really nice year in 2021, but I know I don’t expect him to replicate it again in 2022.

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1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think they fucked that up which means he's going to be closing games this year. 

If they did, it is an absolutely monumental fuck up. That's 16m (14m if you count the 2m buyout) on the books that's you thought you'd get rid of. That's a bigly mistake. 

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7 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Why do I think Correa winds up with the Dodgers? 

It'll be fun to see the mental gymnastics that Dodgers fan will have to do to convince themselves that he's not so bad after calling him a cheater for the last 2 years. Same for Yankees fans. 

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