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ALDS Game 4 - HOU @ CWS - 1:07 pm CDT

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50 minutes ago, Tony said:

The other side of the coin is baseball is fucking weird, and weird things happen in elimination games. The Astros figure their best bet at knocking the Sox out is McCullers, and why risk a Game 5 where things could go sideways. This way, even if the Sox beat McCullers tomorrow, Houston is thinking "We still have the advantage in Game 5 as we are going back to our place." 

I get it, but hopefully the Sox can take advantage tomorrow. 

 

Yeah, if I'm the Astros, I'd pitch McCullers on normal rest in G4 too.  You can't hold back for a G5.

That said, I don't think it's terrible for the Sox either.  

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1 hour ago, Tony said:

McCullers is their ace in the hole, he's been straight dominant over the Sox in 2021. I'm putting that guy in the best position to continue that trend by giving him one more day, and the opportunity to pitch in his home park, rather than a stadium that was considered absolutely electric by both local and national media last night. 

If the Sox can beat McCullers in GRF tomorrow (not an easy task) the entire scale is tipped in the Sox favor heading into Game 5. If the Sox win game 4 but you have McCullers waiting for you in Game 5 back in Houston....I still don't feel great about the series. 

I just don't agree with it. 

I think there’s also some “ok Lance you want everyone to think you’re an ace here’s your chance, go be one” type of challenge coming from Baker here. McCullers is supposed to have some of that attitude in him, so he might respond well to this.

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1 hour ago, strx2000 said:

Knowledgeable Astros fans who arent bandwagon fans are not pissed. Season ticket holder for 15 years. Im in chicago currently with a group of 10. All love the decision. 4 of them are former scouts.

Dusty wants to end it in four. Anything could happen in a final game. I agree. 

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1 minute ago, pcq said:

Dusty wants to end it in four. Anything could happen in a final game. I agree. 

Dusty is certainly improving the chances of that "anything could happen in game 5" mentality by pitching McCullers tomorrow and having Gio go against (most likely) Valdez on Wednesday.  

Of course, Wednesday never happens if the Astros take care of business tomorrow.  So yeah.  I am a coin flip on this - we had to beat LMJ regardless.  I think we have a better chance to do that tomorrow at home than Wednesday in Houston. 

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I unno, I think in the playoffs you pitch your best pitcher ready to go and thats McCullers.

Gonna be fun to beat em.

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Can it be tomorrow already… please?

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5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Dusty is certainly improving the chances of that "anything could happen in game 5" mentality by pitching McCullers tomorrow and having Gio go against (most likely) Valdez on Wednesday.  

Of course, Wednesday never happens if the Astros take care of business tomorrow.  So yeah.  I am a coin flip on this - we had to beat LMJ regardless.  I think we have a better chance to do that tomorrow at home than Wednesday in Houston. 

What are the chances Urquidy wins tomorrow? 25%? What are the chances Valdez wins Wednesday- considering he’s beaten the White Sox twice this year in Houston, better than 50% right? If that’s even in the ballpark - this could improve the White Sox’s chances of beating McCullers and also improve the Astros chances of winning the series at the same time.

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McCullers has that nasty breaking ball. Just follow the pitch and put the ball in play.

Edited by maloney.adam

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Just now, maloney.adam said:

McCullers has that nasty breaking ball. Just follow the pitch and hit for contact.

I think that's what we tried to do in game 1 and we did nothing but make weak contact all game. 

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1 minute ago, chw42 said:

I think that's what we tried to do in game 1 and we did nothing but make weak contact all game. 

Good point. 

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3 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

McCullers has that nasty breaking ball. Just follow the pitch and put the ball in play.

The strategy on McCullers is to look for a fastball in your preferred half of the zone and take anything else until you have two strikes.

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3 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

The strategy on McCullers is to look for a fastball in your preferred half of the zone and take anything else until you have two strikes.

Well I guess they shouldn’t put me out there in game 4 than. I may screw things up. Lol

Edited by maloney.adam

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2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

What are the chances Urquidy wins tomorrow? 25%? What are the chances Valdez wins Wednesday- considering he’s beaten the White Sox twice this year in Houston, better than 50% right? If that’s even in the ballpark - this could improve the White Sox’s chances of beating McCullers and also improve the Astros chances of winning the series at the same time.

I personally don't see that as the case.  Sox hit around Valdez decently enough in game 2 and will be seeing him again 2nd time in less than week Wed. I think the Astros were damn near 4/1 favorites in a potential game 5 in Houston with McCullers on the mound.  They're probably still favorites with Valdez vs. Giolito, but much closer to 50/50.

Game 4 is probably pretty close to 50/50 as well with Rodon vs. McCullers.  So I think this decision hurts the Astros chances slightly overall, even if its only slightly.  It also hurts their rotation set up for the ALCS if they were to advance.  

I get going for the win in game 4 in their case.  I understand the decision.  But I do think it favors the Sox slightly.  They had to beat McCullers regardless, and his dominance is going to (hopefully) be thwarted by the Sox HFA. At least that is what i am going with the next 18 hours.  Choosing to be positive.  Friday had me down in the dumps, but we have very real life. 

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Just now, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

The strategy on McCullers is to look for a fastball in your preferred half of the zone and take anything else until you have two strikes.

McCullers had 5 starts where he gave up 4 runs or more this year. 4 of them came against AL Central teams. Detroit knocked him around for 6 runs early in the year, but he hasn't given up more than 4 runs since August 25th against the Royals. The Astros' struggles against everyone in the AL Central besides the White Sox is puzzling. It makes the "you don't have the AL Central to beat up on" comments from Astros fans even funnier. 

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

I personally don't see that as the case.  Sox hit around Valdez decently enough in game 2 and will be seeing him again 2nd time in less than week Wed. I think the Astros were damn near 4/1 favorites in a potential game 5 in Houston with McCullers on the mound.  They're probably still favorites with Valdez vs. Giolito, but much closer to 50/50.

Game 4 is probably pretty close to 50/50 as well with Rodon vs. McCullers.  So I think this decision hurts the Astros chances slightly overall, even if its only slightly.  It also hurts their rotation set up for the ALCS if they were to advance.  

I get going for the win in game 4 in their case.  I understand the decision.  But I do think it favors the Sox slightly.  They had to beat McCullers regardless, and his dominance is going to (hopefully) be thwarted by the Sox HFA. At least that is what i am going with the next 18 hours.  Choosing to be positive.  Friday had me down in the dumps, but we have very real life. 

Just speaking of this from a win expectancy standpoint. The White Sox were actually favored in game 2 with the Giolito vs. Valdez matchup 52-48 by ZiPS. I think we'll be favored tomorrow since it's a home game, so ZiPS might actually favor us in both games, albeit very slightly. That being said, even if we are favored to win both, our probability of winning the series will still be around 25%. 

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6 minutes ago, chw42 said:

McCullers had 5 starts where he gave up 4 runs or more this year. 4 of them came against AL Central teams. Detroit knocked him around for 6 runs early in the year, but he hasn't given up more than 4 runs since August 25th against the Royals. The Astros' struggles against everyone in the AL Central besides the White Sox is puzzling. It makes the "you don't have the AL Central to beat up on" comments from Astros fans even funnier. 

Gonna make it even more sweet when they put up 5 against him and chase him early.

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38 minutes ago, bighurt574 said:

 

Yeah, if I'm the Astros, I'd pitch McCullers on normal rest in G4 too.  You can't hold back for a G5.

That said, I don't think it's terrible for the Sox either.  

I don't think it's terrible for the Sox either, in fact it's good. Better chance to beat McCullers at home, and, as we all know, the Sox have to beat him in any case. If I were a Sox player, I'd use this as a motivator. I'd tell myself that the Astros now fear the Sox, and so they can't afford to wait to use their ace. Try to win a low-scoring game and head back to Houston.

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Would really like to see Mendick removed for this game for my guy Goodwin. We need every hand on deck to hit righties. Romy can be added next series if we really need a IF that bad.

Edited by Buehrle>Wood

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3 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Would really like to see Mendick removed for this game for my guy Goodwin. We need every hand on deck to hit righties. Romy can be added next series if we really need a IF that bad.

Can we get Jake Lamb back? He hit a homer off McCullers during the regular season. 

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Just now, maloney.adam said:

They should start this guy tomorrow! Lol

605541.jpg

Don’t make me voodoo doll him.

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Funny story.  I was supposed to go on a date with this woman tomorrow night and scheduled it specifically because it was an off day.  Had to cancel it now because of the rainout.  I literally can't schedule dates with people because I can't schedule till after the postseason or if the Sox do get eliminated.  As a Sox fan, this shit is so foreign to me.  Like I have not seen the Sox in the playoffs (last year excluded) in my proper adult life where I did things like went on proper dates with people.  I'm pretty sure I was seeing someone when the Sox made the playoffs in 2018 but can't remember but also that was like sophomore year of college.

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32 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Can we get Jake Lamb back? He hit a homer off McCullers during the regular season. 

Gavin will do that no worries

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