Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
southsider2k5

Rodon to get QO?

Recommended Posts

I cant see the Sox offering him a QO with his health issues. That number was 18.9 mil last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not accepting it doesn't mean he isn't healthy. They might just not trust him to stay healthy. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Damned if you do, damned if you dont. I think that Rodon would likely accept the QO if offered. Maybe someone is willing to offer him 3/60 this off season (assuming the Sox havent made a similar offer). That said, if Rodon replicates this seasons results next year, he goes into free agency as a 30 year old with around 800 career innings with no draft pick compensation attached to him. 

Not offering the QO would mean losing a 5.0 WAR pitcher for nothing. Going for Stroman, Ray, Scherzer, etc. would be much more expensive and long term proposition. I think there are serious questions about whether the Sox can depend on Kopech to make starts in 2022 and it seems exceedingly unlikely that Crochet will be a starter.

Making the wrong call on Rodon's health would be pretty catastrophic. The Sox now have some expensive players on the books in Abreu (19.6M), Lynn (18.5M), Grandal (18.2M), Keuchel (18M), Moncada (13.8M), and Hendricks (13.3M) all over the 10M threshold. The Sox also have an $16M option on Kimbrel to decide on.  If the Sox pick up Kimbrel's option that puts them at $136M for Abreu, Lynn, Grandal, Keuchel, Moncada, Hendricks, Kimbrel, and Rodon.

Factoring in TA (9.5M), Gio (8M give or take), Eloy (6.5M), and Robert the Sox are now at $166M. Picking up Hernandez's option, and bringing back ReyLo and Engel puts you at around $178M. The Sox would essentially have to run it back with the same squad in 2022, but would go into 2023 with Keuchel, Abreu, Rodon, and Kimbrel's money off the books. 

In a vacuum, I think the Rodon QO and the Kimbrel option would both be favorable for the Sox; however, selecting both would be a bold use of limited financial space in 2022.

All of that being said. if the Sox believe that Rodon will be healthy in 2022, then you have to extend the QO. You simply cant get that upside for 18M, while also keeping the 2023 budget flexible. 

Edited by FriendlyNorthsider
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would be way more likely to give Rodon a QO than to pick up Kimbrel's option.  Get rid of Kimbrel and Hernandez, that more than pays for Rodon even if he accepts. Boras clients rarely accept the QO, so I would definitely factor that in.

Of course, I did not like the Kimbrel trade on the day it was made. (Or the Hernandez trade for that matter.) But it never occurred to me that it would turn out as bad as it turned out to be. Kimbrel leaves a bad taste in the mouth. They should be done with him.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone better get ready for an offseason of no spending. There is no way Jerry gives Hahn more money if he offers the QO as well as Kimbrel's option.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would like to see it offered, risk outweighs the loss of a TOR starter. If he doesnt accept we get a pick.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe @ptatc can weigh in, but I'd think there is a difference between his arm just got fatigued due to the high workload or his arm actually suffered damage at the end of the season. If it's the former, an offseason training program ought to help him do more next year. Only needs a 15% increase over 2021 to reach 150 innings in 2022. You absolutely give the QO if you think he can give you that next year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Offer the QO.

His arm held up way better than we could have ever expected for 130+ innings, and he was elite.

With no structural damage, this season could have helped build back his arm strength along with another offseason program similar to last offseason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sambuca said:

Offer the QO.

His arm held up way better than we could have ever expected for 130+ innings, and he was elite.

With no structural damage, this season could have helped build back his arm strength along with another offseason program similar to last offseason.

Worst comes to worst, we open with 6 starting pitchers and I'm fine with that.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Maybe @ptatc can weigh in, but I'd think there is a difference between his arm just got fatigued due to the high workload or his arm actually suffered damage at the end of the season. If it's the former, an offseason training program ought to help him do more next year. Only needs a 15% increase over 2021 to reach 150 innings in 2022. You absolutely give the QO if you think he can give you that next year.

This is what I’m thinking. Guy only threw 40 innings total previous two years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sambuca said:

Offer the QO.

His arm held up way better than we could have ever expected for 130+ innings, and he was elite.

The way I look at it, if he can repeat 2021 19 million is a bargain. He was worth 5 WAR for us which is just outstanding. Even with 3 WAR thats good right?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We can’t have Rodon at 18 million and Kimbrel at 16 million, both of those really cripple our payroll, I assume

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whatever they do it will turn out wrong. 

  • Like 4
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Texsox said:

Whatever they do it will turn out wrong. 

This is asinine. Nothing they have done shows otherwise

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

This is asinine. Nothing they have done shows otherwise

It's just our bad luck. Like trading for the top relief pitcher in the NL who shits the bed the rest of the season. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First rule of being a White Sox fan:

Murphy was an optimist. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They'll offer him the QO. The interesting part will be whether he accepts it. He was a 5 fWAR pitcher this year. If he does that again, he's looking at like a 6/150 deal next offseason. Either way, it's a win for the Sox. They'll either have Rodon again on a bargain salary or they'll get a 2nd rounder when he declines. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah you guys are starting to way overthink things. It's a 1 year deal regardless. Kinda sucks for carlos having to make this decision right before CBA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

They'll offer him the QO. The interesting part will be whether he accepts it. He was a 5 fWAR pitcher this year. If he does that again, he's looking at like a 6/150 deal next offseason. Either way, it's a win for the Sox. They'll either have Rodon again on a bargain salary or they'll get a 2nd rounder when he declines. 

I could definitely see him taking it and building his up innings up and value to be a free agent after 2022 at that $18.4 mill (or whatever it is) salary.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If his injury was fatigue, it's a no brainer to offer it to him. If it's something else, it's a no brainer to pass.

  • Like 1
  • Fire 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

They'll offer him the QO. The interesting part will be whether he accepts it. He was a 5 fWAR pitcher this year. If he does that again, he's looking at like a 6/150 deal next offseason. Either way, it's a win for the Sox. They'll either have Rodon again on a bargain salary or they'll get a 2nd rounder when he declines. 

This is where I am at.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×