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Eminor3rd

Seiya Suzuki

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3 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Eminor3d, I assume the whole posting fee thing is due to some agreement that MLB has with the Japanese league? Seems really shitty for players in Japan. 

Yes, and the MLB has managed to bully the NPB into progressively worse deals each time the term ends. It's actually resulted in less top talent being posted, as the teams just don't get enough incentive to part with their stars anymore. When it does happen, it's when the player really wants it and the team is willing to do them a favor -- which isn't as strange as it sounds given that, due to the fact that there's far less player movement in NPB, star players become very popular, long-term, with fans, and they often return to the organization as even bigger stars when they come back form the MLB. So it's a long-term relationship from the start in a way that just isn't the norm in US sports.

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19 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

 

He only played 11 games for the top team in his rookie year, I don't think he's actually accrued enough service for international free agency.

It would make sense why his team would post him this year then as this would then be the last year before he could qualify as a free agent.

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1 minute ago, A-Train to 35th said:

I guess I did rule the Sox out in my post, thinking about it longer and my answer remains the same, he's not coming to the Chicago White Sox.  Besides the money and 3-5 year commitment a signing like this would take, the front office is waiting on the cheaper Cespedes or Colas to make it in 2022-23.  Remember according to Hahn this team is built for "multiple championships".  I was born in 1959 so multiple championships for the White Sox is not in my vocabulary.

I don't think it's likely either, because, quite frankly, the Sox have completely failed to build the relationships and make the necessary investments to be competitive in Asia. And for whatever obscure, 1980s-business-man reason, they seem to be content having only a single pipeline to international talent.

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19 minutes ago, A-Train to 35th said:

I guess I did rule the Sox out in my post, thinking about it longer and my answer remains the same, he's not coming to the Chicago White Sox.  Besides the money and 3-5 year commitment a signing like this would take, the front office is waiting on the cheaper Cespedes or Colas to make it in 2022-23.  Remember according to Hahn this team is built for "multiple championships".  I was born in 1959 so multiple championships for the White Sox is not in my vocabulary.

Cespedes will likely not even be an MLB caliber player. Colas isn't a sure thing either. If they are good, you trade them or use them as depth. This guy is easily a better player than those 2 at this point and is ready to contribute now. He may be better than any other free agent option. 

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30 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I don't think it's likely either, because, quite frankly, the Sox have completely failed to build the relationships and make the necessary investments to be competitive in Asia. And for whatever obscure, 1980s-business-man reason, they seem to be content having only a single pipeline to international talent.

I figured this case would come down to whoever will pay him the most money. 

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21 minutes ago, A-Train to 35th said:

Joc Pederson anyone?

 

Yuck

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This guy would go a long way towards fulfulling the Soxtalk goal of having 9 right handed DHs in the starting lineup.

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32 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

This guy would go a long way towards fulfulling the Soxtalk goal of having 9 right handed DHs in the starting lineup.

Since when is he a bad defender?

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41 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

This guy would go a long way towards fulfulling the Soxtalk goal of having 9 right handed DHs in the starting lineup.

No, he is considered an above average outfielder and has one of the most feared OF arms in the league. This would be a SOLUTION to the problem.

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

@Eminor3rd - How much we thinking this kid might get?

It's REALLY difficult to guess, IMO, because we still don't even have a "normal" market back yet, you know? And that's before we consider the work stoppage that is probably going to happen.

In my head, if we assume we'll see something resembling a normal free agent market, I'm thinking something like the first Abreu contract. I think evaluators in the game know that he's a cut or two above the Tsutsugoh class, but I also know for a fact that some teams (I wish I knew precisely how many) are almost literally give a hard pass to all NPB bats, period, because they find it confounding to try to evaluate their skills against what is just really different pitching, and so they consider them too risky. So I think it'll be one of those situations where a few teams will REALLY believe in him, but the market isn't robust enough to really drive it super high. 

Traditionally, that's where the White Sox like to strike -- where JR can feel like he's getting a bargain because Hahn and Co have an eval that is higher than consensus, so maybe there is a glimmer of hope?

But I'm just guessing. SO many massive factors will affect the pace and size of the free agent market this winter.

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9 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

It's REALLY difficult to guess, IMO, because we still don't even have a "normal" market back yet, you know? And that's before we consider the work stoppage that is probably going to happen.

In my head, if we assume we'll see something resembling a normal free agent market, I'm thinking something like the first Abreu contract. I think evaluators in the game know that he's a cut or two above the Tsutsugoh class, but I also know for a fact that some teams (I wish I knew precisely how many) are almost literally give a hard pass to all NPB bats, period, because they find it confounding to try to evaluate their skills against what is just really different pitching, and so they consider them too risky. So I think it'll be one of those situations where a few teams will REALLY believe in him, but the market isn't robust enough to really drive it super high. 

Traditionally, that's where the White Sox like to strike -- where JR can feel like he's getting a bargain because Hahn and Co have an eval that is higher than consensus, so maybe there is a glimmer of hope?

But I'm just guessing. SO many massive factors will affect the pace and size of the free agent market this winter.

For as process-poor as Sox have often been in last 15 years, it is nice know we still are a “Kenny Williams at a showcase” away from being surprising players for a guy like this.

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27 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

It's REALLY difficult to guess, IMO, because we still don't even have a "normal" market back yet, you know? And that's before we consider the work stoppage that is probably going to happen.

In my head, if we assume we'll see something resembling a normal free agent market, I'm thinking something like the first Abreu contract. I think evaluators in the game know that he's a cut or two above the Tsutsugoh class, but I also know for a fact that some teams (I wish I knew precisely how many) are almost literally give a hard pass to all NPB bats, period, because they find it confounding to try to evaluate their skills against what is just really different pitching, and so they consider them too risky. So I think it'll be one of those situations where a few teams will REALLY believe in him, but the market isn't robust enough to really drive it super high. 

Traditionally, that's where the White Sox like to strike -- where JR can feel like he's getting a bargain because Hahn and Co have an eval that is higher than consensus, so maybe there is a glimmer of hope?

But I'm just guessing. SO many massive factors will affect the pace and size of the free agent market this winter.

Thanks!  Should be interesting to follow him this offseason whether the White Sox have interest or not.

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6 hours ago, ron883 said:

Get out there and sign that fucking guy, Rick! It's a shame he is a righty. The Sox desperately need to get more left handed. 

Let's face it we all know that won't happen. That would require Jerry to open the purse strings.

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17 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Its too bad he isn't left handed, or he could be a perfect fit.

Alright, we need to get off this dumbass old school baseball mentality. 

If you're a good hitter, I don't care if you hold you damn bat with your feet.    Good hitters should be able to hit anyone. 

 

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He doesn't count against bonus pools because he's 26 years old. He'll get real $$ in addition to the posting fee. Here are the posting rules according wikipedia: 

The current posting agreement was reached after the 2017 MLB and NPB seasons. The agreement runs through October 31, 2021, the expiration date of MLB's current collective bargaining agreement. Not all of the provisions applied immediately—for example, the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters were allowed to set a $20 million posting fee, the maximum allowed under the previous agreement, for two-way star Shohei Ohtani, whom they posted shortly after approval of the new agreement. Since the end of the 2018 NPB and MLB seasons, posting fees have been based on the type of contract a player signs and the deal's value. For players signed to MLB contracts, the posting fee is based on the amount of guaranteed money in the initial contract:[18]

  • 20% of the first $25 million
  • 17.5% of the next $25 million
  • 15% of any amount above $50 million

For players signed to minor-league contracts, the fee is a flat 25% of the contract's value.[18]

The system only applies to players currently under contract with a Japanese team, although players who have nine or more years of playing service with NPB are exempt.[19] It does not apply to free agents or to amateur players who have never played in NPB.[20] Mac Suzuki, Micheal Nakamura, Kazuhito Tadano, and Junichi Tazawa are the only Japanese players to have debuted in MLB without having played in NPB.[20][21][22][23] The system does not work in reverse; it does not regulate MLB players, such as Alex Cabrera, who moved to NPB.[24]

 

Under the current process, the NPB team notifies the MLB Commissioner of a posting, with the posting fee determined by the value of the contract that a posted player eventually signs with an MLB organization. Once the MLB Commissioner announces the posting, the player has 30 days to sign with an MLB team. Unlike the past system, in which only the team that won the bidding process had negotiating rights, the current system allows the posted player to negotiate with any MLB team willing to pay the posting fee. As in the previous process, if the player signs with an MLB team during the negotiating window, the signing team will pay the posting fee; otherwise, his rights revert to his NPB team. Also mirroring the past system, an unsuccessfully posted player can request a posting in a later year, with the process repeated.[17]

 

Last year, Kohei Arihara signed with Texas for two years and $6.2 million. The Ham Fighters received $1.24 million

Edited by Y2Jimmy0
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15 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

Alright, we need to get off this dumbass old school baseball mentality. 

If you're a good hitter, I don't care if you hold you damn bat with your feet.    Good hitters should be able to hit anyone. 

 

Its not a "dumbass mentality", it is a statistical advantage that is significant and real.

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7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Its not a "dumbass mentality", it is a statistical advantage that is significant and real.

If you have a right handed hitter who hits RHP well then there isn't really any reason to want him to be lefty. I agree that there is an old school mentality sometimes that you need a left handed batter but sometimes that's worse because that batter often is way worse or even useless the second a left handed relief pitcher gets put in.

Otherwise the only advantage of a lefty batter is they may get out of the box a little quicker for a few less double plays.

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12 minutes ago, Markbilliards said:

If you have a right handed hitter who hits RHP well then there isn't really any reason to want him to be lefty. I agree that there is an old school mentality sometimes that you need a left handed batter but sometimes that's worse because that batter often is way worse or even useless the second a left handed relief pitcher gets put in.

Otherwise the only advantage of a lefty batter is they may get out of the box a little quicker for a few less double plays.

If you have an exception.  That's the point, most aren't exceptions.  Lefties on average hit righties better than right handed hitters do.

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30 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I can't make sense of that, what is the break down?

If you have Google Chrome, it'll auto translate.

But here's screenshots.

Right Pitcher.PNGLeft Pitcher.PNG

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6 hours ago, Quin said:

https://baseballdata.jp/playerB/1200069_course.html

His splits against righties and lefties, FWIW.

Looks like righties have been able to bust him inside this year, but not lefties. Can't see any other major weakness. Strange that they've continued to work him middle-out all year from both sides.

Edited by Eminor3rd

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7 hours ago, HOFHurt35 said:

Alright, we need to get off this dumbass old school baseball mentality. 

If you're a good hitter, I don't care if you hold you damn bat with your feet.    Good hitters should be able to hit anyone. 

 

Lol.  Lineup balance is incredibility important.  The Sox lineup balance fucking sucks right now, and was on full display in the playoffs. 

All things being equal, of course I'd prefer a great right handed hitter over a left handed hitter that can't hit righties or lefties.  But generally speaking, most good left handed hitters hit righties very well.  This lineup DESPERATELY needs that from RF and 2B additions this offseason.  

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