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Eminor3rd

Seiya Suzuki

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9 minutes ago, bmags said:

I still think inquiring on Frazier is a good option especially if you are paying 2020 prices on him.

Frazier would be a nice little piece, but I feel we a left-handed thumper in the middle of the lineup.  I’m definitely not against Frazier though, especially if we go in a different direction for RF.

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On 11/4/2021 at 6:13 AM, bmags said:

I still think inquiring on Frazier is a good option especially if you are paying 2020 prices on him.

This - I've heard worse things than buying low on Frazier (if in fact you can buy low on him).  

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Clip of one of the Carp oeundan's Seiya songs, complete with alternating rising and sitting, lol: 

I remember seeing this in person when I went over there to see some games in... 2016? It's a pretty arresting effect from far away (our seats were pretty far up behind home plate).

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43 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Clip of one of the Carp oeundan's Seiya songs, complete with alternating rising and sitting, lol: 

I remember seeing this in person when I went over there to see some games in... 2016? It's a pretty arresting effect from far away (our seats were pretty far up behind home plate).

Japanese fans put us Americans to shame.

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I'm not a fan of Japanese power hitters. The pitchers there throw 89 and the parks are very small, usually the power doesn't translate. 

Basically only ohtani and Matsui succeeded as Japanese power hitters in mlb. Yoshi tsutsugo had a 900+ ops and averaged over 30 bombs from 17-19 and so far in in mlb career he has barely hit over 200.

Suzuki has better plate discipline than tsutsugo and his average should play better but I'm sceptical that he will be a 30 Homer guy in mlb. 

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Would prefer they take a shot at him rather than spend $100 million on Conforto, but neither are highly likely to occur.  Too much risk.

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On 11/15/2021 at 8:49 AM, Dominikk85 said:

I'm not a fan of Japanese power hitters. The pitchers there throw 89 and the parks are very small, usually the power doesn't translate. 

Basically only ohtani and Matsui succeeded as Japanese power hitters in mlb. Yoshi tsutsugo had a 900+ ops and averaged over 30 bombs from 17-19 and so far in in mlb career he has barely hit over 200.

Suzuki has better plate discipline than tsutsugo and his average should play better but I'm sceptical that he will be a 30 Homer guy in mlb. 

The problem with this line of thinking is that there simply aren't REMOTELY enough examples of hitters that have made the transition to be able to generalize like you are. Suzuki is way better and, more importantly, WAY different than Tsutsugoh, even when Tsutsugoh was in his prime -- simply the fact that they both hit thirty-plus homers is not enough to compare them. It would be like saying Fernando Tatis and Pete Alonso are similar because they both hit thirty-plus homers this year. There's reason to be skeptical, yes, but the only way to project is to use scouting and evaluate the players as individuals -- which maybe we can't do well from where we are, but the conclusion should be uncertainty, not pessimism. Or, put another way, the skepticism should come from our lack of ability to draw a clear conclusion, not from a sloppy conclusion we DID draw from a lack of data.

Also, there are some small parks in Japan (Jingu, Tokyo Dome, Yokohama), but there are just as many cavernous, pitcher friendly stadiums (Sapporo, Chiba, Nagoya). Homerun numbers are not inflated over there at a league-level.

Finally, I think it's important to point out that, contrary to what I think most people believe, the players that get posted by NPB are RARELY the best players in the league. They are invariably GOOD players relative to the league (nearly always past their primes), but NPB teams work hard to keep their superstars. The reason that Seiya is so intriguing because this is the first time since Hideki Matsui that a player is posted that is arguably the best overall hitter in the league. I think you can make a case that Masataka Yoshida and Munetaka Murakami might be better overall hitters or prospects, but it wouldn't a definitive one, and neither of those guys just had the season that Seiya did. I can tell you that, for sure, how Seiya fares will have a major affect on how I evaluate the hitters in Japan for years to come, because we simply haven't been able to see someone like him, in his prime, take a real shot at it... really since Ichiro. Even Matsui was significantly older and clearly out of his athletic prime when he made the jump (he used to play CF, if you can believe it).

It's going to be interesting.

Edited by Eminor3rd
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On 11/18/2021 at 5:15 PM, caulfield12 said:

Would prefer they take a shot at him rather than spend $100 million on Conforto, but neither are highly likely to occur.  Too much risk.

I think only White Sox fans think Conforto is going to get anything near $100M. Seems a lot of people think he will get a 1 or 2 year deal.

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17 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I think only White Sox fans think Conforto is going to get anything near $100M. Seems a lot of people think he will get a 1 or 2 year deal.

$64-70/4 seems pretty realistic.

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3 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I think only White Sox fans think Conforto is going to get anything near $100M. Seems a lot of people think he will get a 1 or 2 year deal.

Yeah, the $100M stuff is really just stemming from Parkman / Caulfied pessimism.  My guess is he gets a contract very similar to what Grandal got.

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33 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yeah, the $100M stuff is really just stemming from Parkman / Caulfied pessimism.  My guess is he gets a contract very similar to what Grandal got.

“$64-70/4 seems pretty realistic (for Conforto).“

Caulfield12 (11/23/21)

 

Seager and Scherzer or bust!

Also, Balta will be the one you have to fight with now.  I actually think Semien would be a decent enough substitute for Seager, although he’s not left-handed, quite obviously.

It’s actually pretty easy to be optimistic if I simply ignore JR/team history, modern trends in analytics, Hahn and TLR.

I don’t even need to move to Nashville.  It’s simply a matter of changing one’s perspective, not one’s physical latitude and longtitude.  I suggest How to Win Friends and Influence People, The Little Prince, The Celestine Prophecy, Mitch Albom, Chicken Soup for the Soul and Siddhartha.

Edited by caulfield12

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21 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

“$64-70/4 seems pretty realistic (for Conforto).“

Caulfield12 (11/23/21)

 

Seager and Scherzer or bust!

Also, Balta will be the one you have to fight with now.  I actually think Semien would be a decent enough substitute for Seager, although he’s not left-handed, quite obviously.

It’s actually pretty easy to be optimistic if I simply ignore JR/team history, modern trends in analytics, Hahn and TLR.

I don’t even need to move to Nashville.  It’s simply a matter of changing one’s perspective, not one’s physical latitude and longtitude.  I suggest How to Win Friends and Influence People, The Little Prince, The Celestine Prophecy, Mitch Albom, Chicken Soup for the Soul and Siddhartha.

What now?  Not sure where the Seagar stuff is coming from as I have never once suggested him as an option.  And even when I propose signing Scherzer, I still don’t believe it will actually happen.  Just what I’d personally do and it theoretically fits within long-term pitching concerns that generally drive Jerry’s decision-making (and FWIW he would cost less than what we offered Wheeler).  I do think Semien is attainable and Conforto is 100% a realistic get.  In fact, I fully expect Conforto to end up on the Sox.  I think he is their #1 target.

And to be clear here, I’m not expecting you to be optimistic, but rather to avoid the unfounded pessimism that has taken over your posts.  You should never be lumped in with Parkman, but this offseason at least you’ve made some comments that come off as being Jack’s for their ridiculous negativity.  You are better than this Caulfield.

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23 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What now?  Not sure where the Seagar stuff is coming from as I have never once suggested him as an option.  And even when I propose signing Scherzer, I still don’t believe it will actually happen.  Just what I’d personally do and it theoretically fits within long-term pitching concerns that generally drive Jerry’s decision-making (and FWIW he would cost less than what we offered Wheeler).  I do think Semien is attainable and Conforto is 100% a realistic get.  In fact, I fully expect Conforto to end up on the Sox.  I think he is their #1 target.

And to be clear here, I’m not expecting you to be optimistic, but rather to avoid the unfounded pessimism that has taken over your posts.  You should never be lumped in with Parkman, but this offseason at least you’ve made some comments that come off as being Jack’s for their ridiculous negativity.  You are better than this Caulfield.

You once argued/asserted that Machado AND Harper were both realistic possibilities, as a combination.

It would take Scherzer on a max value deal for just two years, with realistic incentives guaranteeing a third…and being creative with some of the other guys like Jimenez and Moncada as they hit their higher earnings years at the end of those contracts (knowing EXACTLY when to part with them), but they have to show they have the ability to get the big fish and compete with ANYONE to be taken seriously as a first-rate franchise.  That was the whole point of the Machado, Harper and Wheeler pursuits, was it not?

Even if Albert Belle was signed for the wrong reasons nearly a quarter of a century ago, they have enough veteran contracts that will clear in the next 2-3 years they could still absorb those two deals if they got really creative financially, or prohibitively expensive bullpens.

It would mean no more Leury Garcias making $4 million.

It would likely mean letting Giolito and Anderson go, which the franchise can overcome with an ALCS or World Series appearance, although my personal belief is they’ll work something out with Anderson and move on from Giolito…because they are much more apprehensive about long-term (meaning over three years) pitching commitments.

If we did have Wheeler already, adding Seager would be the logical finishing piece.  Unfortunately, they’re still at least two of those impact players away, but there are huge upsides for Jimenez, Vaughn, Kopech, Cease and of course, Luis Robert, who will be the best of them all and could someday challenge Thomas as the best player in franchise history if he remains healthy and fulfills jis bast potential.

Signing Scherzer and Seager would demoralize the rest of the Central, and force CLE to deal Ramirez/Bieber and the Twins to start rebuilding.

And I’m 100% serious about putting everything into a trade and extension for Buxton if they won’t commit to the money Seager requires.  There’s no other logical choice for another future Christian Yelich that can be had for 60-75 cents on the dollar for a long list of reasons I won’t get into because they’re already so well-known.

I would not go after Semien or Conforto.  For once, they should shop at the very top of the market and let the chips fall where they may.  

Edited by caulfield12

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14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

You once argued/asserted that Machado AND Harper were both realistic possibilities, as a combination.

It would take Scherzer on a max value deal for just two years, with realistic incentives guaranteeing a third…and being creative with some of the other guys like Jimenez and Moncada as they hit their higher earnings years at the end of those contracts (knowing EXACTLY when to part with them), but they have to show they have the ability to get the big fish and compete with ANYONE to be taken seriously as a first-rate franchise.  That was the whole point of the Machado, Harper and Wheeler pursuits, was it not?

Even if Albert Belle was signed for the wrong reasons nearly a quarter of a century ago, they have enough veteran contracts that will clear in the next 2-3 years they could still absorb those two deals if they got really creative financially, or prohibitively expensive bullpens.

It would mean no more Leury Garcias making $4 million.

It would likely mean letting Giolito and Anderson go, which the franchise can overcome with an ALCS or World Series appearance, although my personal belief is they’ll work something out with Anderson and move on from Giolito…because they are much more apprehensive about long-term (meaning over three years) pitching commitments.

If we did have Wheeler already, adding Seager would be the logical finishing piece.  Unfortunately, they’re still at least two of those impact players away, but there are huge upsides for Jimenez, Vaughn, Kopech, Cease and of course, Luis Robert, who will be the best of them all and could someday challenge Thomas as the best player in franchise history if he remains healthy and fulfills jis bast potential.

Signing Scherzer and Seager would demoralize the rest of the Central, and force CLE to deal Ramirez/Bieber and the Twins to start rebuilding.

And I’m 100% serious about putting everything into a trade and extension for Buxton if they won’t commit to the money Seager requires.  There’s no other logical choice for another future Christian Yelich that can be had for 60-75 cents on the dollar for a long list of reasons I won’t get into because they’re already so well-known.

I would not go after Semien or Conforto.  For once, they should shop at the very top of the market and let the chips fall where they may.  

I did in fact believe two whales was once possible, but that was also before Jerry capped us at eight years for Machado and forced us to use those ridiculous vesting options to “stay competitive” with our bids.  I have learned from my mistakes and my children pay for it every day by living in the god forsaken south.

As for the rest of your post, I like the way you’re thinking!  I don’t agree with trading for Buxton (way too expensive / risky), but it’s officially time to go big or go home.  I still think guys like Semien and Conforto fit in that regard and would quickly get us closer to a World Series.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I did in fact believe two whales was once possible, but that was also before Jerry capped us at eight years for Machado and forced us to use those ridiculous vesting options to “stay competitive” with our bids.  I have learned from my mistakes and my children pay for it every day by living in the god forsaken south.

As for the rest of your post, I like the way you’re thinking!  I don’t agree with trading for Buxton (way too expensive / risky), but it’s officially time to go big or go home.  I still think guys like Semien and Conforto fit in that regard and would quickly get us closer to a World Series.

I would do it for one of Jimenez OR Vaughn and definitely Crochet because his becoming a starter is looking increasingly unlikely...despite the continuing presence of Bummer.

And I do believe the White Sox would always prefer the risk of 2+ Buxtons for 1 Seager deal.

Of course, it’s far easier to argue spending the money on a Seager or Correa and not giving up any young talent…but the reality is Seager would seemingly be more willing to play anywhere you asked and they’ll need to package all that young talent for pitching.

That said, maybe they get a breakthough with Contreras/Vera or even Colas as a two way player to replace Crochet with proper coaching once he reaches North America.

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I love the 'go big or go home' approach.

But for the love of God, please don't ever suggest sending Eloy to the Twins. I think some people are forgetting how it was mentioned when he first got injured how he might not have his power back until 2022. Don't sell low on Eloy. He could easily be a top 3 or 4 hitter in baseball next year.

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