Sox give no qualifying offers

[South Side Hit Men]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Citing payrolls before anything has happened means nothing.  And the Sox finished with a $140M+ payroll last year I believe and that’s with COVID impacted gate revenue greatly reducing their opening day budget.  Going up to $170M would be about a 20% increase and that’s off a deflated base.  Zero doubt in my mind they don’t hit that figure.  Honestly, I think $180M is a very realistic target, but gun to head I’m going with $170M.

https://theathletic.com/news/white-sox-dont-extend-qualifying-offer-to-starter-carlos-rodon/VYBok0WMza35/?redirected=1

Quote

Where does this leave the White Sox?

Fegan: The Sox got tremendous returns taking a $3 million bet on Rodón being able to deliver a healthy season in 2021, despite his second-half fade. And their judgment of Rodón's physical capabilities has some credibility given his eight years in the organization.

But it's hard to square how Rodón at $18.4 million in 2022 is a worse risk than picking up Craig Kimbrel's $16 million option — even accounting for Kimbrel’s latent trade value — in the wake of his own disastrous second half, and recent inconsistency.

This hints at the ceiling of the White Sox' offseason budget, and their subsequent moves to address the rotation will have prove the wisdom in this decision. Or, like he did with Rodón last season, pitching coach Ethan Katz could revive someone else into a stud starter out of nowhere and make all of this look like a masterstroke.

 

[Balta1701]

I do find it somehow appropriate that the first 2 offseason things I said we should do were cut Kimbrel loose and offer the QO to Rodon and the White Sox have done the exact opposite both times.

[Tony]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

I do find it somehow appropriate that the first 2 offseason things I said we should do were cut Kimbrel loose and offer the QO to Rodon and the White Sox have done the exact opposite both times.

I feel better about the Sox direction already. 
 

Thanks Balta! 

[Balta1701]

Just now, Tony said:

I feel better about the Sox direction already. 
 

Thanks Balta! 

I do what I can.

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

https://theathletic.com/news/white-sox-dont-extend-qualifying-offer-to-starter-carlos-rodon/VYBok0WMza35/?redirected=1

 

What does that mean?  Hints at what ceiling?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

 

no room for a starter, that's why Carlos is gone. Keuchel and Kopech super duper reliable and great.

The fact that this messaging/narrative is already being pushed by the organizational PR team isn't great news.

Edited November 8, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

15 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What does that mean?  Hints at what ceiling?

That the Sox are close to their ceiling and are hoping to free up some Kimbrel money to go dumpster diving to fill some holes. 

Still think Carlos had more trade value than Kimbrel but think you have to hold for a certain amount if time if a guy signs a QO so they couldn't trade him and free up money to spend on a 2b and of'er at the dollar store in time. 

[SonofaRoache]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

 

no room for a starter, that's why Carlos is gone. Keuchel and Kopech super duper reliable and great.

The fact that this messaging/narrative is already being pushed by the organizational PR team isn't great news.

What? No room for a starter on a team with DK as one of the 5? 

[hi8is]

8 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The fact that this messaging/narrative is already being pushed by the organizational PR team isn't great news.

What are you talking about? Read the tea leaves… it obviously means we’re signing Scherzer.

[HOFHurt35]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

 

no room for a starter, that's why Carlos is gone. Keuchel and Kopech super duper reliable and great.

The fact that this messaging/narrative is already being pushed by the organizational PR team isn't great news.

 

Lined up as listed there, how can we argue starting rotation its this team's biggest weakness? 

Another starter, one at $18+ million, is a luxury at this point considering the glaring holes at 2B, OF, Bullpen.  

I'd be very upset if Rodon sinking  $18.5 million would be the difference in having to go with a complete scrub at 2B

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

To those who think the sox could sign scherzer. 

Sox have 14 guys under contract. They're at 156 million.

Let's say they swap kimbrel and eat zero money (seems unlikely but we'll assume)

They're now at 140. Scherzer would out them around 175. 

We'll say 4 million (but may be more given the new cba) for the 5 young guys. 

179, roster is at 19. They still need a 2nd baseman and at least 1 BP arm. 15 million combined would mean some bad guys there, but let's say 15. 194

Then they round out the last 4-5 guys on the roster with what? I'm assuming they role with vaughn/sheets in the of here too,

Edited November 8, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

 

Lined up as listed there, how can we argue starting rotation its this team's biggest weakness? 

Another starter, one at $18+ million, is a luxury at this point considering the glaring holes at 2B, OF, Bullpen.  

I'd be very upset if Rodon sinking  $18.5 million would be the difference in having to go with a complete scrub at 2B

 

1. You need more than 5 starting pitchers. The sox have no minor league depth.

2. How is a rotation with two complete question marks at 4-5 a good thing? Kopech isn't gonna throw more innings than Carlos did this year and keuchel is absolutely terrible. 

[HOFHurt35]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

1. You need more than 5 starting pitchers. The sox have no minor league depth.

2. How is a rotation with two complete question marks at 4-5 a good thing? Kopech isn't gonna throw more innings than Carlos did this year and keuchel is absolutely terrible. 

No one is saying the rotation situation is a slam dunk guarantee. 

But how can you not be willing to take what we have there assuming you'll be able to get better at 2B and the Bullpen and even perhaps the OF? 

I'll take that option all day over crying my eyes out for seeing Rodon go away. 

$18.5 million for Carlos Rodon is absurd, and when you make a qualifying offer you have to understand there is even that remote chance a player as frequently hurt as Carlos might be willing to take a bite at it.  

 

 

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

 

no room for a starter, that's why Carlos is gone. Keuchel and Kopech super duper reliable and great.

The fact that this messaging/narrative is already being pushed by the organizational PR team isn't great news.

Re-discovering Lopez is just like finding a brand-new starter...or that Crochet will be the next Chris Sale, SOMEDAY.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

9 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

No one is saying the rotation situation is a slam dunk guarantee. 

But how can you not be willing to take what we have there assuming you'll be able to get better at 2B and the Bullpen and even perhaps the OF? 

I'll take that option all day over crying my eyes out for seeing Rodon go away. 

$18.5 million for Carlos Rodon is absurd, and when you make a qualifying offer you have to understand there is even that remote chance a player as frequently hurt as Carlos might be willing to take a bite at it.  

 

 

Look around the league. There's nothing absurd about it. 

Verlander, Syndergaard, Ed Rod all got QO's. Carlos had the 2nd highest projected WAR of all players who could have been offered a QO. 

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

No one is saying the rotation situation is a slam dunk guarantee. 

But how can you not be willing to take what we have there assuming you'll be able to get better at 2B and the Bullpen and even perhaps the OF? 

I'll take that option all day over crying my eyes out for seeing Rodon go away. 

$18.5 million for Carlos Rodon is absurd, and when you make a qualifying offer you have to understand there is even that remote chance a player as frequently hurt as Carlos might be willing to take a bite at it.  

 

 

Based on 2021, wouldn't we make that same argument (but even moreso) about Dallas Keuchel at least 2 if not 3-4 years past his true prime with the Astros???

[caulfield12]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Look around the league. There's nothing absurd about it. 

Verlander, Syndergaard, Ed Rod all got QO's. Carlos had the 2nd highest projected WAR of all players who could have been offered a QO. 

That will be the argument used against you....that you can't count on or rely upon it again in 2022.

But there you have at least three organizations in Houston, New York and Boston who aren't afraid to put their money where their mouth is...there's no way you can argue that any of those guys are significantly less risky (and some, moreso) than Carlos Rodon.

 

 

And part of it's also the the psychological side of things, the message it sends to your fan base...that we don't believe in our own homegrown player more than say, Craig Kimbrel, who was an absolute train-wreck with the White Sox and had very little if nothing to do with their 2021 playoff appearance.

If there are DEFINITELY teams out there willing to spend that $18.4 million (and the Dodgers would be another, Giants letting DeSclafini and Alex Wood go have money to spend, along with Posey retirement)...there's not at least 6-8 teams out there that would be interested in Rodon?

 

As it stands now, the only 50% convincing argument I've seen for Kimbrel is matching up with the Phillies, but there aren't many more teams, and the Phillies got by well enough at the back end going cheap/er, they just need to improve their 6th-8th inning guys and can spend a lot less than $16 million to accomplish that.

[soulfly]

Cool, can't wait to see Kopech throw like 60 innings next year and still need another starter anyways.  Unless they are planning on Lopez and Kopech splitting starts.

[Chimpton]

One thing that makes me puzzled is that the feeling on here when Rodon was picked up for $3 million for 2021 was largely one of indifference or outright puzzlement, less than a year later people are wanting $18.5 million to be offered to the same Rodon. The biggest issue with Rodon is not his ability but his ability to stay healthy, and an $18.5 million gamble is a big one especially as his arm fatigued at the end of the season and offseason when it was needed most.

[TaylorStSox]

Rodon's pitched 669 innings over 7 seasons and finished last season hurt, yet again. I certainly don't think it's cheapness that stopped them from offering the QO.

[Jerksticks]

9 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Rodon's pitched 669 innings over 7 seasons and finished last season hurt, yet again. I certainly don't think it's cheapness that stopped them from offering the QO.

Agree. I think all this means is they have some better plans for that 18M.  Maybe Carlos accepting wouldn’t have been the worst thing but it would have prevented whatever option A is.  

[caulfield12]

38 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Rodon's pitched 669 innings over 7 seasons and finished last season hurt, yet again. I certainly don't think it's cheapness that stopped them from offering the QO.

We can also argue that he pitched 125 innings per year his first four seasons.

Of course, the major injuries in 2019 as well as 3/8th's of a season in 2020 drive the overall numbers down.   He pitched 132.66 this year and projects for a 3.8 fWAR and 154 IP at STEAMER.

It would be pretty shocking if we got that out of Kopech next season.   Certainly not a 4.9 fWAR like Carlos put together this year.

 

That's a $25-32.5 million pitcher in today's/Balta's FA baseball economics.

[Chimpton]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

We can also argue that he pitched 125 innings per year his first four seasons.

Of course, the major injuries in 2019 as well as 3/8th's of a season in 2020 drive the overall numbers down.   He pitched 132.66 this year and projects for a 3.8 fWAR and 154 IP at STEAMER.

It would be pretty shocking if we got that out of Kopech next season.   Certainly not a 4.9 fWAR like Carlos put together this year.

 

That's a $25-32.5 million pitcher in today's/Balta's FA baseball economics.

If the Sox were offering $18.5 million for a FA pitcher (not called Rodon) but with a similar profile would SoxTalk be excited at the prospect? It would be and is a big gamble, he had a career best season last year and there is the potential issue of fitness. Granted he will probably go somewhere else and win a Cy Young award just to annoy everyone on here. but even if he were to repeat last season (his best ever but still no use in October due to fatigue) would that be worth $18.5 million?

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

What? No room for a starter on a team with DK as one of the 5? 

This is just tempting fate with all the pitching injuries across baseball the last 2-3 seasons....and almost zero depth behind Lopez.  I guess the argument is we could still win the division with Stiever/Lambert but not both also in the rotation as replacements.  Or at least tread water until the trade deadline.

Guess we will get the old Crochet in the future pipeline too canard. 

 

We heard this year a lot about Moncada's contract exploding in the option years...feels like we really only have two years of clear window remaining unless we get new deca billionaire ownership.

Edited November 8, 2021 by caulfield12

[Harold's Leg Lift]

5 hours ago, Chimpton said:

One thing that makes me puzzled is that the feeling on here when Rodon was picked up for $3 million for 2021 was largely one of indifference or outright puzzlement, less than a year later people are wanting $18.5 million to be offered to the same Rodon. The biggest issue with Rodon is not his ability but his ability to stay healthy, and an $18.5 million gamble is a big one especially as his arm fatigued at the end of the season and offseason when it was needed most.

Yep.  They got a magic year from a guy who had his back against the wall.  The dumbest thng they could do is give him a 600% pay increase and expect him to do it again.