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Sox give no qualifying offers

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Just now, 35thstreetswarm said:

I do find it strange that a lot of folks seem not to bat an eye at 18.4 million for Rodon but regard 30 million for Scherzer as laughable.  I mean, reasonably likely that they're all outside the FO's budgetary constraints but it's kind of crazy that Rodon plus Kimbrel = (or >) Scherzer, or Ray, or some other far safer top-of-market target.  

Well keep in mind there are two ways people talk about things on this board:

1) What they would do
2) What they think the sox will do

In general, Soxtalk GM thinks sox should manage things with the overall budget in perspective and worry less about individual price tags. Reinsdorf Owner/Hahn GM have shown very little tendency to set tops of the market, so when people talk about something laughable, it's more likely to be coming from that place.

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10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If no one will offer Rodon comparable money to the QO, then that is a pretty strong sign that there's something going to be wrong with his physical. 

If the Sox thought Rodon was NOT going to take the QO, there is zero reason to not offer him.  They obviously thought he would take it, and that he wouldn't be worth it in 2022, which should be a red flag.

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Just to add some perspective, I saw yesterday where Red Sox just offered a QO  to Edwardo Rodriquez for $18.4

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11 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I do find it strange that a lot of folks seem not to bat an eye at 18.4 million for Rodon but regard 30 million for Scherzer as laughable.  I mean, reasonably likely that they're all outside the FO's budgetary constraints but it's kind of crazy that Rodon plus Kimbrel = (or >) Scherzer, or Ray, or some other far safer top-of-market target.  

I find that strange too especially considering they recently signed 34 yr old Lance Lynn a 2yr/$38M extension. 

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18 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Maybe they want to have Rodon test the water and realize an incentive-laced deal is the best he is going to get.  I don't think 18 million is the chump change some here think.

But I'm not even talking about what kind of contract he ends up getting. I'm just going off of this quote from Hahn that another poster shared: "We know we won't have him back for 1 at 18." I interpret that as he knew Rodon accepting the QO was not going to happen. Maybe that's a misinterpretation on my part? 

Because otherwise, why wouldn't you just offer the QO as a formality and let him decline it? That way, you either 1) Work out some other deal with Rodon. Cool. Or 2) He signs with another team and you get the compensatory pick as a result. 

I feel like I'm missing something and/or misinterpreting that quote, because this seems way too obvious of a move. And I'm not one of those armchair GM types, I'd be an absolutely atrocious GM.

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4 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Orrrrrr they think he's highly likely to accept because his arm isn't healthy, even if there isn't structural damage.  No one knows his medicals better than the Sox.  This is one I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on.  Rodon wasn't good in the 2nd half and didn't pitch over 5 innings after his first start following the ASG.  That version of him is a terrible gamble for $18.3M. 

If they know he's hurt or broken, this decision is correct -- and time will tell. My fear is that it's more that they didn't feel like they could tie $18m up into a guy who, despite tremendous upside, isn't a slam dunk to give them 150 innings, and if that's the case, it might still be the correct move, but it's also a sign that they're probably about to cry poor again this offseason.

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22 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

Just to add some perspective, I saw yesterday where Red Sox just offered a QO  to Edwardo Rodriquez for $18.4

Even more crazy: 38 year old Verlander, who has thrown 6 innings combined the last 2 years, received a QO.

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18 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

 but it's also a sign that they're probably about to cry poor again this offseason.

Those are some crocodile tears when you give $16Mill to Kimbrel.

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28 minutes ago, Snopek said:

But I'm not even talking about what kind of contract he ends up getting. I'm just going off of this quote from Hahn that another poster shared: "We know we won't have him back for 1 at 18." I interpret that as he knew Rodon accepting the QO was not going to happen. Maybe that's a misinterpretation on my part? 

Because otherwise, why wouldn't you just offer the QO as a formality and let him decline it? That way, you either 1) Work out some other deal with Rodon. Cool. Or 2) He signs with another team and you get the compensatory pick as a result. 

I feel like I'm missing something and/or misinterpreting that quote, because this seems way too obvious of a move. And I'm not one of those armchair GM types, I'd be an absolutely atrocious GM.

Maybe RH doesn't believe anyone is going to offer 18 + for Rodon.

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44 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I find that strange too especially considering they recently signed 34 yr old Lance Lynn a 2yr/$38M extension. 

2/38 is pretty different than 3/120.

 

(I have no idea if those numbers are realistic, but that is what MLBTR just predicted for him, I get that this is faaaaaaar from being the absolute truth, but its a starting point)

 

Edited by turnin' two

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9 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Those are some crocodile tears when you give $16Mill to Kimbrel.

The fact that they decided they could only have one is precisely the issue.

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4 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

The fact that they decided they could only have one is precisely the issue.

Kimbrel @ $16 is an overpay in all but fluke circumstances; so if you can only have one, none is the answer.
And in the  Kimbrel @ $16 or Rodon @ $18.4 choice, Rodon is the obvious choice by a mile.

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8 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

The fact that they decided they could only have one is precisely the issue.

To be fair we don't know that is what they decided.  They may have decided that Rodon isn't worth the money because they can't count on him for 150 innings.  And they really can't count on him for any innings in September and October.  

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5 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Kimbrel @ $16 is an overpay in all but fluke circumstances; so if you can only have one, none is the answer.
And in the  Kimbrel @ $16 or Rodon @ $18.4 choice, Rodon is the obvious choice by a mile.

I’d take pick up neither as the preferred option, with if you “had to”sign one Rodon being the preferred route, assuming his medicals are in order for someone to sign him this off-season.

Im certain whatever the Sox get in return for Kimbrel will be praised high and wide, regardless of merit.

Edited by South Side Hit Men

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18 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

2/38 is pretty different than 3/120.

 

(I have no idea if those numbers are realistic, but that is what MLBTR just predicted for him, I get that this is faaaaaaar from being the absolute truth, but its a starting point)

 

Fangraphs predicted 2yr/$70M.

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10 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Fangraphs predicted 2yr/$70M.

Which is almost exactly double the 2/$38M deal you're pointing to as evidence. 

You may well be right about the Sox signing Scherzer.  But I will believe it when it see it, and giving him perhaps the last deal of his career does feel like something the Sox would do.  Let's pay a premium price for a player that is not nearly what he once was is something they've traditionally liked to do, though admittedly not a player this expensive. 

Edited by ChiSox59

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26 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

I’d take pick up neither as the preferred option, with if you “had to”sign one Rodon being the preferred route, assuming his medicals are in order for someone to sign him this off-season.

Im certain whatever the Sox get in return for Kimbrel will be praised high and wide, regardless of merit.

If the White Sox are able to trade Kimbrel without having to include substantial money or take back a comparably bad deal, then yes, they will deserve praise. 

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1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

If the Sox thought Rodon was NOT going to take the QO, there is zero reason to not offer him.  They obviously thought he would take it, and that he wouldn't be worth it in 2022, which should be a red flag.

 

If he can pass a physical, they should have just offered him the QO, and if he accepts, trade him if you don't really want him.  Basically the same thing they're doing by picking up Kimbrel's option.  Heck, Rodon on a QO almost certainly has more excess value than Kimbrel's option year (again, assuming he can pass a physical).  Fangraphs, MLBTR, and ESPN are all projecting Rodon to top a QO in free agency. 

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4 minutes ago, bighurt574 said:

 

If he can pass a physical, they should have just offered him the QO, and if he accepts, trade him if you don't really want him.  Basically the same thing they're doing by picking up Kimbrel's option.  Heck, Rodon on a QO almost certainly has more excess value than Kimbrel's option year (again, assuming he can pass a physical).  Fangraphs, MLBTR, and ESPN are all projecting Rodon to top a QO in free agency. 

You can’t trade someone who has accepted the QO right away. I think you have to wait until May?

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8 minutes ago, bighurt574 said:

 

If he can pass a physical, they should have just offered him the QO, and if he accepts, trade him if you don't really want him.  Basically the same thing they're doing by picking up Kimbrel's option.  Heck, Rodon on a QO almost certainly has more excess value than Kimbrel's option year (again, assuming he can pass a physical).  Fangraphs, MLBTR, and ESPN are all projecting Rodon to top a QO in free agency. 

YOu can't trade someone who signs a QO until something like mid season.

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2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

If no one will offer Rodon comparable money to the QO, then that is a pretty strong sign that there's something going to be wrong with his physical. 

Maybe maybe not. The sox know the actually results of Rodon's MRI's. Its very possible they came back clean ass evidenced by him throwing 99 mph in his last outting.If they they really believe he just had fatigue that is normal after coming back from TJS and not pitching in a long time then they may think its a good risk signing him. But they may want other potential suitors to think just like you that there is something wrong with his physical. 

If they give Carlos a qo and he accepts then the sox have him for 1 year and then he is a free agent. What if he again pitches great but makes it through the whole year strong? them someone is going to sign him for Wheeler money. But if the sox can now sign him for 3 yr,s at 45 mil they have a steal. Just speculation but it is a plausible scenario.

 

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

If the White Sox are able to trade Kimbrel without having to include substantial money or take back a comparably bad deal, then yes, they will deserve praise. 

Or you could have eat $1M and let him walk away, the more prudent option of the two.

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7 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

But... in a way they are?

Again, Verlander, Syndergaard, Ed Rod and etc were all extended QO's. I noted earlier if Carlos has off-season surgery I would 100% understand. If he doesn't, he signs somewhere, and then passes his physical then this is a horrible move. It's really that simple.

Could he fail his physical or have surgery? Sure. Do the Sox deserve the benefit of the doubt that they're not being cheap? Absolutely not.

All Carlos costs was money. Instead the Sox will probably end up trading more assets for "affordable" arms like they did with Lynn. This team should be pushing 190+ million dollar payroll, but we know that won't happen. How is that not frustrating? If they really trade Kimbrel, they're at about 140 now. Carlos puts them at 158. They could still sign a 2B and another SP/RP if they acted like an actual heart-of-the-contention window organization.

All those guys have much better track records of health and/or performance than Carlos.  Like this dude got non-tendered last offseason and came back to the Sox for $3M because that’s all the market would bear.  I get how awesome he was last year, but if you QO him he was almost certain to accept it.  If you don’t like the medical outlook of his shoulder and would rather investment that $18.4M into another pitcher then I don’t get why there is so much outrage over this.  Again, we need to wait and see everything unfolds first.  If they don’t replace him with a quality pitcher then I’ll be right there with you in assuming this was cheapness related.

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