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Kimbrel option expected to be exercised

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1 hour ago, zisk said:

So nobody watched him pitch in August or September?

But you know that any team trading for him will be hoping to get the pre-August Kimbrel at a knock down price.

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52 minutes ago, ScooterMcGee said:

This is pretty much what it comes down to imo. Watch that team beat the Sox in the World Series with CK recording 4 saves in the series....

Not necessarily "big market," but don't the Cards need a closer? What can they cough up?

Undoubtedly McNeil and reuniting Giolito and Flaherty.

But with our luck, Carlos Martinez.

 

Gallegos and Reyes, but neither are long-term answers for that spot for various reasons.  Hicks theoretically returning.

Edited by caulfield12

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1 hour ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Nobody that's going to be swayed by such a small sample size.

Half a season of competence over the last three seasons is a small sample size too.

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2 minutes ago, Stinky Stanky said:

Half a season of competence over the last three seasons is a small sample size too.

Or fooled by Hahn’s non-Eaton/Sale/Q horse trading  genius…

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Well its official now, Kimbrel option picked up but not Cesar.

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They traded for him because he had the extra year of control and they weren't going to change their process based on the results or because they were scared of the money.  This is how big market teams go about their business.  

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1 minute ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They traded for him because he had the extra year of control and they weren't going to change their process based on the results or because they were scared of the money.  This is how big market teams go about their business.  

Yes, but then just wait when his being on the payroll is used as the excuse for not making some (from the fans’ standpoint) obvious moves in free agency…until Kimbrel can first be successfully offloaded.

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5 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They traded for him because he had the extra year of control and they weren't going to change their process based on the results or because they were scared of the money.  This is how big market teams go about their business.  g market team? Now that’s funny. 

Being stubborn and obviously spending money unwisely is acting like a big market team?  Results don’t change their process? I wonder what Allen Thomas would think about that statement.

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$16 million is far greater than his market value.  The only way to trade him for anything, and it won't be much, is to eat 1/2 the salary.
That said, if they didn't pick up the option, they likely would have traded for a reliever, so at least this may preclude that overpay.

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Fwiw, counting the guys on the roster who will have to go through some sort of arbitration process and assuming that works like the last CBA, this puts the current 2022 White Sox payroll over $150 million. 

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

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25 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They traded for him because he had the extra year of control and they weren't going to change their process based on the results or because they were scared of the money.  This is how big market teams go about their business.  

If you're the New York Mets.

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52 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

They traded Madrigal and Heuer so they think they have to pick up the option. 

How do you know that’s what’s driving the decision here?  They have a limited budget and aren’t going to jeopardize the rest of their offseason plans to prove themselves right on a deal that’s already failed.  I know half this board thinks our front office is incompetent, but there is a method to their madness.  They could be 100% wrong, but clearly they’re picking up the option because they think they can extract some sort of value.

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Cub fans still love Kimbrel.  We could probably get Madrigal ++if we would pony up 8 million toward Kimbrel's salary.  Just for the record....I'm not joking.

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12 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Cub fans still love Kimbrel.  We could probably get Madrigal ++if we would pony up 8 million toward Kimbrel's salary.  Just for the record....I'm not joking.

NEVER gonna happen. They finally offloaded all that money on their books, of which they have been crying poor about since Theo left. Also, they know they probably got fleeced in the Eloy+Cease/Q trade and have to have this one to save face.

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16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How do you know that’s what’s driving the decision here?  They have a limited budget and aren’t going to jeopardize the rest of their offseason plans to prove themselves right on a deal that’s already failed.  I know half this board thinks our front office is incompetent, but there is a method to their madness.  They could be 100% wrong, but clearly they’re picking up the option because they think they can extract some sort of value.

That's the only excuse for picking up the option. Everyone watched Kimbrel in August and September. He sucks. Nobody wants a shitty reliever for $16M. 

I think that if they think they're going to extract some value back they're sorely mistaken. Kimbrel at $16M has negative value. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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“But the lack of success meant the White Sox moving on from Kimbrel would not come as a surprise.

So far, though, they haven't, and there's an argument to be made that a full offseason to get acclimated to a new team and a new role could allow Kimbrel to pitch more like himself next season. With plenty of other departures from the bullpen — Ryan Tepera and Evan Marshall are free agents, and Michael Kopech is set to move to the rotation, with Garrett Crochet perhaps also beginning to prepare for a starter's role — keeping one of the game's elite relief arms around wouldn't be the worst idea.”

 

Thanks for really selling the move, Vinnie Duber.

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I'll be very surprised if we get anything useful for him. 

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50 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

$16 million is far greater than his market value.  The only way to trade him for anything, and it won't be much, is to eat 1/2 the salary.
That said, if they didn't pick up the option, they likely would have traded for a reliever, so at least this may preclude that overpay.

Again, Kimbrel tied for 5th amongst relievers with 2.2 fWAR and was literally the best reliever in baseball over the first four months of the season.  If his August & September struggles were spread over the course of the season then he’d be looking at a lot more than a 1/$16M season.  GMs are going to evaluate the situation objectively and be far less emotional than White Sox fans who are bitter about giving up Madrigal in the trade.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Again, Kimbrel tied for 5th amongst relievers with 2.2 fWAR and was literally the best reliever in baseball over the first four months of the season.  If his August & September struggles were spread over the course of the season then he’d be looking at a lot more than a 1/$16M season.  GMs are going to evaluate the situation objectively and be far less emotional than White Sox fans who are bitter about giving up Madrigal in the trade.

I was happy with the trade when it happened, I'm not a Madrigal fan. That being said, Kimbrel sucks and there is no reason for anyone to believe that he's going to turn it around anytime soon. I'm afraid the Sox are going to be stuck with him. 

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17 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

That's the only excuse for picking up the option. Everyone watched Kimbrel in August and September. He sucks. Nobody wants a shitty reliever for $16M. 

I think that if they think they're going to extract some value back they're sorely mistaken. Kimbrel at $16M has negative value. 

Recency bias.

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21 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

That's the only excuse for picking up the option. Everyone watched Kimbrel in August and September. He sucks. Nobody wants a shitty reliever for $16M. 

I think that if they think they're going to extract some value back they're sorely mistaken. Kimbrel at $16M has negative value. 

And all these GMs also watched Kimbrel from April to July when he was unhittable. What changed exactly?  Why did he suddenly suck?  You seem to have all the answers, so loved to understand the driver for his sudden fall-off.

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10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

And all these GMs also watched Kimbrel from April to July when he was unhittable. What changed exactly?  Why did he suddenly suck?  You seem to have all the answers, so loved to understand the driver for his sudden fall-off.

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well there is this, I don’t know how much it mattered. But “he suddenly was very hittable and you can’t tell us why” isn’t the strong defense you seem to think, rather that’s a reason to be cautious about him.

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Other note- one of the ways to see Kimbrel as movable would be if there were a minimum payroll established for all teams in the next CBA, as teams would take that contract on since it’s only 1 year and he could be a guy worth more at the deadline.

But, between talk of Oakland doing a sell off and the Reds giving away Miley’s affordable deal, so far it doesn’t look like organizations are expecting that.

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19 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

And all these GMs also watched Kimbrel from April to July when he was unhittable. What changed exactly?  Why did he suddenly suck?  You seem to have all the answers, so loved to understand the driver for his sudden fall-off.

Kimbrel should bounce back, was fatigued down the stretch, coming off low workloads the previous two seasons.

That said, with Hendriks already here, hard to fit that salary with the existing veterans and fill other pressing needs without a substantial budget increase to the $200M range, which I just don't see happening. Believe they are strongly considering keeping him for next season, at least until the deadline vs. the sign and flip many here assume. Definitely worth more here than flipping him for some of the garbage mentioned here such as Cano. Dodgers can afford the cash and could use a closer. Lux would be a nice return if they are going to trade this offseason.

Rodon is the more important piece, if healthy (instead of merely fatigued). They have a better handle on his health since we have little public information, so at least encouraged by what was reported this week that the team remains interested, reflecting on his health being OK. The COVID/CBA turmoil may work in the Sox favor, afraid the Dodgers will sign him as they have the money and willingness to overpay compared to the rest of MLB.

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

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well there is this, I don’t know how much it mattered. But “he suddenly was very hittable and you can’t tell us why” isn’t the strong defense you seem to think, rather that’s a reason to be cautious about him.

How in the fuck am I using that as a defense?  I’m asking you guys who say he now “sucks” with full conviction what is the driver was for his sudden fall off.  You’re pointing to velocity, but that’s a symptom of a broader problem and not the root cause.  Did he get injured in June or July?  If so, is there reason to think he’ll be healthy again and regain his 1st half form?  Was it something mechanical that can be addressed?  Or perhaps he simply wore out from a ~45 inning increase vs. 2020.  See, the difference between GMs and people like you and Parkman is they will ask these questions, discuss with their pro scouting and analytics staffs, and make an informed go-forward projection for Kimbrel that is based on data, logic, & reason.  And yes, people should be cautious about Craig given his bad two months could be the start of a trend, but they should also realize they could mean nothing and have zero predictive value.  Baseball people a lot smarter than me & you and far less emotional than half of Soxtalk feel there is a market for Kimbrel.  Obviously they could be wrong, but it’s laughable to think they are doing this in hopes of saving a move that did not work out and jeopardize their offseason plans.  KW & Hahn have endless job security and if they survived the James Shields fiasco, losing Nick Madrigal for a Hall of Famer closer with a xwOBA in the 100th percentile at the time of the trade won’t cost them shit.  Right or wrong, picking up Kimbre’s option is 100% about extracting value and nothing more.

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