Conforto rejects QO, enters free agency

[Two-Gun Pete]

5 minutes ago, fathom said:

I love how none of this has to do with Conforto

Well, IMO, squandering cash ongoing Kimbrel/a 2B/a RP, and then squandering cash to send Kimbrel away will likely prevent Conforto and Semien from being seriously pursued by this FO.

[hi8is]

I like to ride bicycles.

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Wait, you said, "Literally none of these deals had to have any affect on financial flexibility going forward. " 

Do you disagree with the arithmetic? 

 

That said, Atlanta traded a backup C for Duvall, a prospect 1B in High A for Pederson, and a Hi A pitcher for Soler. Of these 3, only the backup C would have to be replaced in Atlanta's 2022 payroll. 

So on that basis, not only did Atlanta actually attempt to address their issues, they did so without squandering future financial resources.

The Sox could have been done with all of these contracts after this year.  They could still be done with them.  They could also promote internally if they so choose.  But that still doesn't alter the original premise that somehow Hernandez should have been known as a failure for the last five years, but the other guys get an asterick applied to them because of some other made up standards that actually apply to the Sox as well, but you still make up another reason to disqualify them.

[35thstreetswarm]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

That was an impressive goal post shift into a completely different topic.

Was it?  Well, if you want to continue explaining how the Hindenburg proved that dirigibles are the future of luxury travel I'm all ears.

Thanks in advance.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, 35thstreetswarm said:

Was it?  Well, if you want to continue explaining how the Hindenburg proved that dirigibles are the future of luxury travel I'm all ears.

Thanks in advance.

Sure, but Deutsche Zeppelin Reederei at least kept their asset allocation such that they maintained their financial flexibility.

[MiddleCoastBias]

24 minutes ago, fathom said:

I love how none of this has to do with Conforto

If you want talk about Conforto, that's over in the Semien thread.

[Chicago White Sox]

 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

 

Conforto is my biggest offseason get for the reasons Owen states in his tweet.

[Two-Gun Pete]

53 minutes ago, Snopek said:

Well no cuz you haven’t done your fun/mildly condescending “back of the baseball card” breakdown for those guys yet. That’s what I was waiting for, so that I can understand what the difference is.

Well, thanks for admitting that.

I will apologize, if I've come off as condescending; its not at all my intention. That said, here are the numbers:

Duvall's WRC+ since 2017: 96, 69, 120 (in 41 games), 115 (in the short 2020 season), and 103 this season. More injuries than straight line declination in WRC+, IMO.

Pederson WRC+ since 2017: 100, 126, 126, 86 (short 2020 season), 94 this year. There's a decline of 6% from 2017-2021, with 2 fortunate years in 18/19. Given his age, I'd say he's probably a 100-ish WRC+ player than the 126 guy. 

Soler: 32 (35 games), 123 (61 games), 136 (2019/162 games), 108 in 2020, 100 in this season. Like Duvall, there were some injury riddled years, and a career year back in 2019.

Rosario: 117, 114, 104, 111 in 2020, and 98. So, a decline here.

 

Of the 4, I'd say that 2 were in decline, and 2 were not, although the 2 in decline were <30 years old, and thus, a better bet to bounce back than some. Whats more, actually trying to solve REAL roster problems (Atlantas OF), instead of waiting time on perceived ones (SOX need for a 2nd closer) is usually the better way to go. Even if the solutions on offer are not ideal. 

 

Now, let's review the WRC+ for the SOX RF acquisition...

Edited November 15, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[Two-Gun Pete]

41 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The Sox could have been done with all of these contracts after this year.  They could still be done with them.  They could also promote internally if they so choose. 

But that still doesn't alter the original premise that somehow Hernandez should have been known as a failure for the last five years, but the other guys get an asterick applied to them because of some other made up standards that actually apply to the Sox as well, but you still make up another reason to disqualify them.

To the bolded, I have questions, since you said that these acquisitions would not impact the finances:

A. Has the cash been spent already on Kimbrel?

B. Will Madrigal and Heuer have to be replaced with players that will cost money?

C. If this cash was not squandered on Kimbrel, could it (hypothetically) be spent on better players that could actually solve problems in this team? (Like Conforto)

 

That said, Where did I say that Hernandez would be a failure? I said that the acquisition of Hernandez would be a failure, which it was. I said that Hernandez was in decline, which he is.

Atlanta did acquire 2 OFers that appear in decline, but they also actually tried to address their real issues, rather than squandering resources on pieces that they didn't need. The SOX wasted the TDL on a centerpiece that was a piece of shit, and totally ignored a gaping hole in the OF.

Edited November 15, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[ChiSox59]

This thread has already become unreadable.  

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

To the bolded, I have questions, since you said that these acquisitions would not impact the finances:

A. Has the cash been spent already on Kimbrel?

B. Will Madrigal and Heuer have to be replaced with players that will cost money?

C. If this cash was not squandered on Kimbrel, could it (hypothetically) spent on better players that could actually solve problems in this team? (Like Conforto)

 

That said, Where did I say that Hernandez would be a failure? I said that the acquisition of Hernandez would be a failure, which it was. I said that Hernandez was in decline, which he is.

Atlanta did acquire 2 OFers that appear in decline, but they also actually tried to address their real issues, rather than squandering resources on pieces that they didn't need. The SOX wasted the TDL on a centerpiece that was a piece of shit, and totally ignored a gaping hole in the OF.

If you are trying to contend that the White Sox pen didn't need help at the deadline, you would have totally ignored the gaping hole in the pen.  It had been awful outside of Hendriks in the month leading up to the deal, including Heuer.  The Sox saw that hole, and filled it with the best reliever on the market, statistically.  The awfulness of the Sox pen in July has already been shown.

[oneofthemikes]

I'm not sold on Conforto. I'd prefer if they went after Marte.

[Two-Gun Pete]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If you are trying to contend that the White Sox pen didn't need help at the deadline, you would have totally ignored the gaping hole in the pen.  It had been awful outside of Hendriks in the month leading up to the deal, including Heuer.  The Sox saw that hole, and filled it with the best reliever on the market, statistically.  The awfulness of the Sox pen in July has already been shown.

No, I've already stated that there was a small issue with a RH setup man. Whats more, I didn't see it as pressing as the OF/2B/vs RHP holes that weren't addressed at all.

I wouldn't have categorized the pen as being the most important issue, and I generally see everyday players as being more important than relievers, all things being equal...

 

Now, since they squandered cash on the pen, we may not be able to land Conforto, since the moves made will cost real money.

Edited November 15, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

No, I've already stated that there was a small issue with a RH setup man. Whats more, I didn't see it as pressing as the OF/2B/vs RHP holes that weren't addressed at all.

I wouldn't have categorized the pen as being the most important issue, and I generally see everyday players as being more important than relievers, all things being equal...

It wasn't a "small issue".  The set up crew had given away a lot of games and had put up awful numbers, again including Heuer.

[Boopa1219]

Hoping the Sox can get Conforto locked up before Thanksgiving

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

12 minutes ago, Joshua Strong said:

Hoping the Sox can get Conforto locked up before Thanksgiving

agreed.

[Sleepy Harold]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

I love how none of this has to do with Conforto

I keep seeing the topic is hot and has new pages and get very interested, but then I check in and it's still about Cesar and the trade deadline. 

[Chicago White Sox]

31 minutes ago, oneofthemikes said:

I'm not sold on Conforto. I'd prefer if they went after Marte.

What aren’t you sold on for Conforto?

[Chicago White Sox]

18 minutes ago, Joshua Strong said:

Hoping the Sox can get Conforto locked up before Thanksgiving

Shit would be amazing.

[Snopek]

23 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Well, thanks for admitting that.

I will apologize, if I've come off as condescending; its not at all my intention. That said, here are the numbers:

Duvall's WRC+ since 2017: 96, 69, 120 (in 41 games), 115 (in the short 2020 season), and 103 this season. More injuries than straight line declination in WRC+, IMO.

Pederson WRC+ since 2017: 100, 126, 126, 86 (short 2020 season), 94 this year. There's a decline of 6% from 2017-2021, with 2 fortunate years in 18/19. Given his age, I'd say he's probably a 100-ish WRC+ player than the 126 guy. 

Soler: 32 (35 games), 123 (61 games), 136 (2019/162 games), 108 in 2020, 100 in this season. Like Duvall, there were some injury riddled years, and a career year back in 2019.

Rosario: 117, 114, 104, 111 in 2020, and 98. So, a decline here.

 

Of the 4, I'd say that 2 were in decline, and 2 were not, although the 2 in decline were <30 years old, and thus, a better bet to bounce back than some. Whats more, actually trying to solve REAL roster problems (Atlantas OF), instead of waiting time on perceived ones (SOX need for a 2nd closer) is usually the better way to go. Even if the solutions on offer are not ideal. 

 

Now, let's review the WRC+ for the SOX RF acquisition...

Hey, you did it. I appreciate it.

Interesting paths here, but I'm still having trouble drawing too many conclusions about expected performance for these 4, at least in a definitive manner. Which goes back to the Cesar thing: I'm not necessarily surprised that he regressed (and if he is indeed in career decline, it wouldn't shock me), but I disagree that it was obvious and the Sox should have seen it coming. IMO there are too many variables to identify some trends so definitively.

For the record, being okay with the Cesar addition (at the time), does not mean I was okay with not adding a RF. They could have done both. And with that, I think I've filled my quota for Cesar Hernandez talk for the next few years. 

Back on topic, Michael Conforto is a great fit for the Sox and also his mom is a three-time Olympic medalist in synchronized swimming.

[iWiN4PreP]

I'm going on record of saying I'd be pretty happy with a Conforto signing. We need Left handed hitters. 

I'd be more happy going after Corey Seager.

I'd be very upset if we bargain bin shop again for Eaton-Mazaraa types. It's ok to Bargain bin for a 4th OF, but not for your starting option!

I'm also on record of being unhappy with Keuchel, Eaton, Mazarra, Kimbrel trade, Cesar trade.

I was lukewarm on the Lynn trade, didn't love it - didn't hate it, but turned out to be awesome.

I was happy with Liam Hendricks signing and Yasmani.

Overall, mostly unhappy with how the white sox trade deadline and offseasons have gone. 

But it could be worse.. we could be the A's or the Reds who are competitive and selling off their players. 

[chw42]

1 hour ago, oneofthemikes said:

I'm not sold on Conforto. I'd prefer if they went after Marte.

I see a few issue with Marte. 

1. He's 33 and he plays a young man's game. How long will his speed hold up given he's going to be in his mid to late 30s by the end of the contract he gets? His sprint speed has been decreasing the last 2 years. From 89th percentile in 2020 to 83rd percentile last year. 
2. A large amount of the increase in his value last year on offense came from him walking a lot more, something he's never done before in his career. Is this an outlier or has he actually acquired better plate discipline? 
3. He hits a lot of ground balls. 54% of his balls in play were grounders last year. This isn't really a bad thing, but on a team that has issues with hitting too many ground balls, I'm not sure you want to add to that problem. 

Don't get me wrong, I think Marte is a really good player, I just don't think he's a great fit on this team. A lot of teams also want him to play CF, but he probably profiles as a better corner OFer given his age and decrease in sprint speed as he ages. 

Edited November 15, 2021 by chw42

[maloney.adam]

We need players that can hit the ball in the air. Preferably LH. Conforto is a priority. Than I would either trade for a second baseman or sign someone like Eduardo Escobar. 

Edited November 15, 2021 by maloney.adam

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

7 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

We need players that can hit the ball in the air. Preferably LH. Conforto is priority. Than I would either trade for a second baseman or sign someone like Eduardo Escobar. 

Pairing Conforto with Escobar is both extremely realistic and the best moves for our offense.