Justin Verlander re-signs in Houston

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, Sarava said:

Is a QO really that big of a deterrent now? It's no longer a first round pick, I just don't see teams passing on a good signing over a 2nd round pick.

For a guy at Rodon’s level it is pretty big. We have 3 guys on our roster who were majorly impacted by it, for a second round pick Keuchel and Kimbrel both had to sit out half a season and Grandal took a 1 year deal to clear it before he could get a multi year deal. For a $200 million player teams don’t care, but for a $50 million player it matters a bunch. Notably, Verlander was right at that level, and stayed in Houston.

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I don’t think Boras would go for anything like that. 

There might be a chance that Rodon had a couple of comparable offers last year and went with the White Sox on a handshake agreement to not use the QO.

Now this actually makes a lot of sense.

[Pants Rowland]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Now this actually makes a lot of sense.

I agree as well. I also agree with other responders that Boras is not going to do anything to compromise a max value contract for his clients. However, brokers always have the opportunity to steer their clients when all financial matters are equal, and/or tip off a GM when they are inches away from a target player at the end of a process. 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, Sarava said:

Agree. And the offense wasn't always great. They get shutdown way too often for comfort - which leads to the lefthanded power bat need you mention.

And while the Tigers look to be ready to push the Sox - I'm going to approach this like the Sox likely will make the playoffs. And they need a horse to throw out there every 4 days that will shut the other team down. And I'm not thinking in May or June, I'm thinking in October. I don't think we have that guy. I'm comfortable with Giolito as a #2 in the playoffs. And Lynn may even be fine if the Sox aren't playing Houston. But we need that guy badly.

The important thing is you don't stop because you think you're already loaded. See the Dodgers acquiring Mookie Betts despite already having the best roster in baseball. Then Scherzer a year later. Keep pushing. If ever there was a time for Jerry to bust his comfort budget from across his 40ish years as White Sox owner, it's right now.

Yeah, my view with starting pitching is you got to plan for a major injury to ensure you’re setup for success come October.  Cease is the perfect #4 starter heading into the 2022 season because he’s already damn good, could get even better, and provides insurance if one of your top three guys go down.  I don’t want to take any chances on Keuchel or a wore down Kopech making important playoffs, which means adding another TOR starter to pair with Giolito & Lynn.

[SCCWS]

27 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yeah, my view with starting pitching is you got to plan for a major injury to ensure you’re setup for success come October.  Cease is the perfect #4 starter heading into the 2022 season because he’s already damn good, could get even better, and provides insurance if one of your top three guys go down.  I don’t want to take any chances on Keuchel or a wore down Kopech making important playoffs, which means adding another TOR starter to pair with Giolito & Lynn.

Astors could enter ST with 7 starters w Odorizzi and Javier. 

[Sarava]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

For a guy at Rodon’s level it is pretty big. We have 3 guys on our roster who were majorly impacted by it, for a second round pick Keuchel and Kimbrel both had to sit out half a season and Grandal took a 1 year deal to clear it before he could get a multi year deal. For a $200 million player teams don’t care, but for a $50 million player it matters a bunch. Notably, Verlander was right at that level, and stayed in Houston.

Pretty sure QO compensation was a first rounder when Keuchel and Kimbrel were left unsigned until midseason.

[Sarava]

4 minutes ago, Sarava said:

Pretty sure QO compensation was a first rounder when Keuchel and Kimbrel were left unsigned until midseason.

Actually I stand corrected. It had changed to a 2nd rounder already.

But I'll add in...both of those guys were viewed on the downtrend at that point.

[Boopa1219]

22 hours ago, Sarava said:

Regardless on signing Verlander, I do hope this is a sign that the Sox recognize they must get a TOR starter. A TOR starter is a bigger need then a 2B or RF.

I’m of the opinion the the Sox need to sign a starter and an “innings eater”, someone who can stretch the rotation and allow the team to skip Kopech from time to time, especially early in the season.

Pitching is a big need, starters and the pen. 

[Balta1701]

5 hours ago, Joshua Strong said:

I’m of the opinion the the Sox need to sign a starter and an “innings eater”, someone who can stretch the rotation and allow the team to skip Kopech from time to time, especially early in the season.

Pitching is a big need, starters and the pen. 

Are you defining innings eater different from how I would? I would describe an innings eater as a guy who goes out there all the time, isn’t great, but throws like 175+ innings and is decent enough that you always let him pitch 6-7 innings to save your bullpen. That’s not what you need if you are only “skipping Kopech from time to time”.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Are you defining innings eater different from how I would? I would describe an innings eater as a guy who goes out there all the time, isn’t great, but throws like 175+ innings and is decent enough that you always let him pitch 6-7 innings to save your bullpen. That’s not what you need if you are only “skipping Kopech from time to time”.

More like McHugh, but he wouldn’t come so cheap…

[SCCWS]

43 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

More like McHugh, but he wouldn’t come so cheap…

Balta said 170 innings and I doubt McHugh can put up close to that. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, SCCWS said:

Balta said 170 innings and I doubt McHugh can put up close to that. 

Only 29 pitchers in all of baseball managed that.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=8,d
 

Only 5 of them were below 3.0 fWAR, with Flexen and Gibson exactly there.

Hendricks, Lyles, Irvin, Corbin and Greinke.

 

That leaves you two or possibly three.   Only Lyles or Irvin would be in the affordability range most are seeking.

[Dick Allen]

16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Only 29 pitchers in all of baseball managed that.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=8,d
 

Only 5 of them were below 3.0 fWAR, with Flexen and Gibson exactly there.

Hendricks, Lyles, Irvin, Corbin and Greinke.

 

That leaves you two or possibly three.   Only Lyles or Irvin would be in the affordability range most are seeking.

I think some of that had to do with the 60 game 2020, but starters IP are definitely trending lower.

[Kyyle23]

Death, taxes, and caulfield continuing to use 2020 results as a true barometer of future play 

[caulfield12]

18 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Death, taxes, and caulfield continuing to use 2020 results as a true barometer of future play 

 I’ll take which SoxTalk mod is most likely to make snarky comments for $500, Alex.

It was 2021.  See that number embedded in the link?

Dick Allen’s point was that the layoff/short season in 2020 impacted this season, which is quite obvious to pretty much anyone…starting with games pitchers missed on the IL.

 

2019, 51 threw 170+, including Reynaldo Lopez, our own innings eater.

2018, 50 threw 170+.

2017, 45.

2016, 64 over 170

With even more focus on bullpen usage than ever before, the true number with two back to back 162 game seasons should equalize in the 38-42 range.

Still only 1 1/2 pitchers per team putting up those IP, at most.

Edited November 19, 2021 by caulfield12

[Kyyle23]

Me no never 

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

 I’ll take which SoxTalk mod is most likely to make snarky comments for $500, Alex.

It was 2021.  See that number embedded in the link?

Dick Allen’s point was that the layoff/short season in 2020 impacted this season, which is quite obvious to pretty much anyone…starting with games pitchers missed on the IL.

 

2019, 51 threw 170+, including Reynaldo Lopez, our own innings eater.

2018, 50 threw 170+.

2017, 45.

2016, 64 over 170

With even more focus on bullpen usage than ever before, the true number with two back to back 162 game seasons should equalize in the 38-42 range.

Still only 1 1/2 pitchers per team putting up those IP, at most.

I am insulting by my omission.

[southsider2k5]

 

[tray]

On 11/19/2021 at 12:35 AM, Joshua Strong said:

I’m of the opinion the the Sox need to sign a starter and an “innings eater”, someone who can stretch the rotation and allow the team to skip Kopech from time to time, especially early in the season.

Pitching is a big need, starters and the pen. 

I agree. Would you be satisfied with Rodon as that starter?

[caulfield12]

On 12/16/2021 at 4:00 PM, tray said:

I agree. Would you be satisfied with Rodon as that starter?

My goal is to defeat Ron and take over the world by trading laugh emoji's with Tray, who's actually a really good guy!

 

Everyone would be satisfied with THAT Rodon, if we could get at least 150+ innings out of him, is the answer to the question.  And I'd actually put pretty even odds between Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw (whatever the eventual deal turns out being) and Rodon who gets the biggest bang for their contract dollars in terms of fWAR/$$$.