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Justin Verlander re-signs in Houston


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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Great post.  There is definitely a method to their madness and they didn’t pass on offering Rodon the QO because they didn’t want to spend $18.4M on a 5 win pitcher.  Health and/or regression obviously played a huge role in their decision.

By that argument, we shouldn't have given Lynn that money, or Keuchel.

There are no guarantees for pitchers in their thirties.

Even Scherzer was ouchy in the playoffs and had to be nursed through.

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Just now, caulfield12 said:

99.7...if he maxed out at 92-93 in that playoff start, nobody would be disagreeing.

So he had two innings of adrenaline-fueled velocity while having no sharpness to his slider for the last few months of the season. It was obvious to anyone who’s watched him that he wasn’t right. 
 

 

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1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

By that argument, we shouldn't have given Lynn that money, or Keuchel.

There are no guarantees for pitchers in their thirties.

Even Scherzer was ouchy in the playoffs and had to be nursed through.

What in the hell is comparable about Rodon’s health record vs. Dallas or Lance’s?

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1 minute ago, fathom said:

So he had two innings of adrenaline-fueled velocity while having no sharpness to his slider for the last few months of the season. It was obvious to anyone who’s watched him that he wasn’t right. 
 

 

So you would prefer a five year deal for Robbie Ray at max dollars?  That's even more insane.  Do we really trust the White Sox to win a bidding war for Max Scherzer?

 

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8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What in the hell is comparable about Rodon’s health record vs. Dallas or Lance’s?

Let's see where all these pitchers are at the All-Star Break.  You can make equally valid arguments for Kershaw for 1-2 years as Robbie Ray at 4-5.  In the end, Scherzer is the only true playoff proven ace remaining on the market.  Everyone knows it.   Clayton is a shadow of his former self, unfortunately.

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20 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Which is why we should wait and see what they do this offseason or what kind of contract Rodon gets before we declare them idiots.  If they have higher hopes than Carlos for that last rotation spot, then it probably wasn’t worth offering him the QO if there was any level of risk he would accept.  Also, who is to say Carlos wouldn’t have pulled a Thor by trying to get a quick deal and then using the QO as a fallback if he couldn’t pass a physical?  We just don’t have enough info right now to say it was a stupid decision or not.

What a concept.

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5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Let's see where all these pitchers are at the All-Star Break.  You can make equally valid arguments for Kershaw for 1-2 years as Robbie Ray at 4-5.  In the end, Scherzer is the only true playoff proven ace remaining on the market.  Everyone knows it.   Clayton is a shadow of his former self, unfortunately.

I’m not sure what you‘re even arguing at this point.  That pitchers can get hurt?

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58 minutes ago, Baron said:

God we're starting with this and only one disappointing non signing so far. Going to be a long offseason. 

I’m not disappointed in NOT signing Verlander. But if the market is one year deals for 25 million for a 39 year old injured former Cy young pitcher. I don’t think we’re going to be in play for big names. 

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Just now, ShoeLessRob said:

I’m not disappointed in NOT signing Verlander. But if the market is one year deals for 25 million for a 39 year old injured former Cy young pitcher. I don’t think we’re going to be in play for big names. 

Sure does feel like any SP addition that really moves the needle will come via trade, but we’ll see.

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28 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Oh, I thought you were saying you knew who Portillo’s was.  I get he’s alluding to Max in his Tweet.

It’s all good man. I think Orlando was Al’s Cheesy Beef and I think he’s Bartolo’s Colonoscopy now. The other ones I’m not quite sure. Speaking of foodies, I found another one that popped up on Twitter. 

 

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16 minutes ago, fathom said:

So he had two innings of adrenaline-fueled velocity while having no sharpness to his slider for the last few months of the season. It was obvious to anyone who’s watched him that he wasn’t right. 
 

 

To be fair,odds are he wasn’t going to be sharp with his slider when he hadn’t pitched in so long. But the Sox know more about his arm than we do, and they seemed pretty concerned that there was more there than general soreness and fatigue. He is going to have to pass a physical to sign a new deal, he probably wouldn’t have had to with the QO. To me, if you are sure his issue was more fatigue related, giving him the offer seemed a no brainer, but if you suspect something else, it’s a no brainer the other way. For all we know, he could have been hopped up on painkillers with the adrenaline  to get it up to 99. They just have to be right spending that kind of money right now or they may find themselves in a bind quickly.

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45 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Which is why we should wait and see what they do this offseason or what kind of contract Rodon gets before we declare them idiots.  If they have higher hopes than Carlos for that last rotation spot, then it probably wasn’t worth offering him the QO if there was any level of risk he would accept.  Also, who is to say Carlos wouldn’t have pulled a Thor by trying to get a quick deal and then using the QO as a fallback if he couldn’t pass a physical?  We just don’t have enough info right now to say it was a stupid decision or not.

The Mets received draft pick compensation in exchange for Thor leaving. There's no comparable player to Rodon that accepted the qualifying offer. Guys with legitimate health question marks or that aren't elite players turned it down. The only guy who accepted is a 34 year old 1 team lifer that plays a non premium position. It's just impossible to look at the FA landscape and think Rodon wouldn't do better than 1 for 18M, which is why I think it's fair to say not offering him the QO was a mistake. Why leave the pick/draft pool space on the table when the system can use all the help it can get?

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So here’s the remaining starting pitchers on MLBTR’s top 50 free agents list:

  • 05) Kevin Gausman: 6/$138M | $23M AAV
  • 07) Robbie Ray: 5/$130M | $26M AAV
  • 09) Max Scherzer: 3/$120M | $40M AAV
  • 11) Marcus Stroman: 5/$110M | $22M AAV
  • 14) Eduardo Rodriguez: 5/$77M | $15.4M AAV
  • 18) Carlos Rodon: 1/$25M
  • 19) Jon Gray: 4/$56M | $14M AAV
  • 22) Anthony DeSclafani: 3/$42M | $14M AAV
  • 23) Justin Verlander: 2/$50M | $25M AAV
  • 26) Alex Wood: 3/$30M | $30M AAV
  • 27) Steven Matz: 3/$27M | $9M AAV
  • 33) Clayton Kershaw: 1/$20M
  • 34) Yusei Kikuchi: 2/$20M
  • 37) Noah Syndergaard: 1/$21M
  • 39) Alex Cobb: 2/$16M | $8M AAV
  • 40) Zack Greinke: 1/$15M
  • 46) Corey Kluber: 1/$12M
  • 48) Danny Duffy: 1/$10M
  • 50) Andrew Heaney: 1/$8.5M

Lots of mid / back of the rotation guys still left, but after Scherzer you pretty much have to go the trade route if you want a TOR starter.  At least the SP market is moving quickly.

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