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James Fox: Can’t Ignor-as Boras, Sox will spend

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36 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

I just don’t get why you take the risk to pick up the option if what you get back is another bad contract on a low upside guy who’s on the down slope of his career. Nonzero chance that Segura’s decline becomes steep in the next year. Just don’t pick up the option and use the money to sign a second baseman.  I hope the Sox are smarter than this.

Segura has a team option with just a one mill buyout next year, if his decline becomes steep (and he’s only 32) then you just don’t pick up the option.

Hes been a pretty consistent player and OAA loved his second base defense last year. He also makes high contact, though groundball heavy.

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44 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Didn't the Sox already pick up Kimbrel's option ? Pretty sure they did so apparently the plan is to trade him.

For sure they picked up his option. My point is, if Segura is the best you can do, that was a very bad decision.

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6 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

For sure they picked up his option. My point is, if Segura is the best you can do, that was a very bad decision.

There is substantial value in not having to commit to a long term contract. As I stated earlier, Segura is owed $14.25 million for 2022, with a team option for 2023, at $17 million. That would provide payroll flexibility, which can be used to fill the other needs. He's an excellent defensive second baseman, with good speed and a high OBP. He makes a lot of contact and can expected to get on base. He would likely replace Anderson, at the top of the order and allow Tim to move to the 2 hole, where he can hit behind the runner, with his ability to utilize the right side of the field, as has been pointed out.

Edited by Lillian

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9 minutes ago, Lillian said:

There is substantial value in not having to commit to a long term contract. As I stated earlier, Segura is owed $14.25 million for 2022, with a team option for 2023, at $17 million. That would provide payroll flexibility, which can be used to fill the other needs. He's an excellent defensive second baseman, with good speed and a high OBP. He makes a lot of contact and can expected to get on base. He would likely replace Anderson, at the top of the order and allow Tim to move to the 2 hole, where he can hit behind the runner, with his ability to utilize the right side of the field, as has been pointed out.

Personally, I would rather give more at bats to either Robert or Moncada. Segura hits 9th on this team. It’s a lot of money to give to another right hand hitting ground ball type, but to each his/her own.

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11 minutes ago, Lillian said:

There is substantial value in not having to commit to a long term contract. As I stated earlier, Segura is owed $14.25 million for 2022, with a team option for 2023, at $17 million. That would provide payroll flexibility, which can be used to fill the other needs. He's an excellent defensive second baseman, with good speed and a high OBP. He makes a lot of contact and can expected to get on base. He would likely replace Anderson, at the top of the order and allow Tim to move to the 2 hole, where he can hit behind the runner, with his ability to utilize the right side of the field, as has been pointed out.

Under no circumstance should Segura push Tim or Robert out of the 1 or 2 spot.  They are both significantly better hitters than Segura.

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Just now, Timmy U said:

Personally, I would rather give more at bats to either Robert or Moncada. Segura hits 9th on this team. It’s a lot of money to give to another right hand hitting ground ball type, but to each his/her own.

Fully agree.  Just sign Escobar for $10M and get 25 much needed bombs.

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14 minutes ago, Lillian said:

There is substantial value in not having to commit to a long term contract. As I stated earlier, Segura is owed $14.25 million for 2022, with a team option for 2023, at $17 million. That would provide payroll flexibility, which can be used to fill the other needs. He's an excellent defensive second baseman, with good speed and a high OBP. He makes a lot of contact and can expected to get on base. He would likely replace Anderson, at the top of the order and allow Tim to move to the 2 hole, where he can hit behind the runner, with his ability to utilize the right side of the field, as has been pointed out.

Segura has $1M buyout. So his cost is really $15.25M vs Kimbrel at $16M. I wouldn't exactly call that payroll flexibility.

If Kimbrel turns in to Segura, then it was a bad decision to pick up his option while declining Cesar Hernandez's option and adding $9M to the payroll in the process. That $9M could be the difference in adding Rich Hill or some other veteran arm to the rotation.

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That's fine, and I wouldn't quarrel with where he would bat in the lineup. He could bat 9TH. It's the payroll flexibility that he affords that is the most intriguing to me. He's a good player and that contract would afford the Sox the opportunity to spend more on guys like Conforto and a starter. It's not that his contract is cheap, but that it's not long term.

I'd still be very happy with a short term deal for Escobar, no more than 2 years. But then they still have to find a trading partner for Kimbrel. Do you guys really think that someone will offer more than Segura? I have my doubts. Ideally, the Sox can fill at least one of their holes, with Kimbrel.

Edited by Lillian

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10 minutes ago, Lillian said:

That's fine, and I wouldn't quarrel with where he would bat in the lineup. He could bat 9TH. It's the payroll flexibility that he affords that is the most intriguing to me. He's a good player and that contract would afford the Sox the opportunity to spend more on guys like Conforto and a starter. It's not that his contract is cheap, but that it's not long term.

I'd still be very happy with a short term deal for Escobar, no more than 2 years. But then they still have to find a trading partner for Kimbrel. Do you guys really think that someone will offer more than Segura? I have my doubts.

I still don't understand how $750K is what you would call payroll flexibility. 🤷‍♂️

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3 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I still don't understand how $750K is what you would call payroll flexibility. 🤷‍♂️

My reasoning is that, since the commitment already now exists with the Sox having exercised Kimbrel's option, they need to trade him and that contract. If they can accomplish that, while filling the hole at second base, that leaves money available for the other acquisitions. I wouldn't have exercised Kimbrel's option, but that is now a mute point. 

Edited by Lillian

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4 minutes ago, Lillian said:

My reasoning is that, since the commitment already now exists with the Sox having exercised Kimbrel's option, they need to trade him and that contract. If they can accomplish that, while filling the hole at second base, that leaves money available for the other acquisitions. I wouldn't have exercised Kimbrel's option, but that is now a mute point. 

Trading Kimbrel for Segura would free up..... merely $750K. What am I missing here? Am I going crazy?

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3 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Trading Kimbrel for Segura would free up..... merely $750K. What am I missing here? Am I going crazy?

You aren't "going crazy". Perhaps Hahn could simply find some team willing to take Kimbrel and his contract, for a couple of prospects. Then the Sox could sign whomever they want to fill their holes. Not a good look for the GM, but that would work. That doesn't sound like what Hahn is trying to do. He exercised that option, with the idea of trading him. If all he gets are a couple of lower level prospects, it means that he gave up Heuer and Madrigal for less than half a season of Kimbrel, and a couple of low level prospects. Hey, I might do that, but I doubt that Hahn would. I'm just guessing that he would prefer to fill one of the holes, going into next season, with the Kimbrel 
"asset" (or liability, as some of us might think). 

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56 minutes ago, Lillian said:

There is substantial value in not having to commit to a long term contract. As I stated earlier, Segura is owed $14.25 million for 2022, with a team option for 2023, at $17 million. That would provide payroll flexibility, which can be used to fill the other needs. He's an excellent defensive second baseman, with good speed and a high OBP. He makes a lot of contact and can expected to get on base. He would likely replace Anderson, at the top of the order and allow Tim to move to the 2 hole, where he can hit behind the runner, with his ability to utilize the right side of the field, as has been pointed out.

 

16 minutes ago, Lillian said:

My reasoning is that, since the commitment already now exists with the Sox having exercised Kimbrel's option, they need to trade him and that contract. If they can accomplish that, while filling the hole at second base, that leaves money available for the other acquisitions. I wouldn't have exercised Kimbrel's option, but that is now a mute point. 

With Jose Ramirez Being a FA next year being able to get out of that contract would be good.

Moot point...mute is a different word meaning not being able to speak.

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13 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

 

With Jose Ramirez Being a FA next year being able to get out of that contract would be good.

Moot point...mute is a different word meaning not being able to speak.

Thanks, I know better, but had a "brain cramp".

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2 hours ago, Timmy U said:

For sure they picked up his option. My point is, if Segura is the best you can do, that was a very bad decision.

Segura is a good player with a good track record. I have a hard time believing they will get better than him. Since the decision is already made on Kimbrel  they now have to rid themselves of his salary while getting the best piece possible in return If you can trade salary for salary while at the same time filling one of our holes you have to do it.

There's one guy on the board who did a very detailed analysis on what he would do with the roster with James Fox's saying Reinsdorf is going to have payroll around $190-$200M. He had the Phillies eating the whole contract and giving us a relief pitcher who has 1 inning pitched in the last 2 years ,was injured last year, is 27 and has 3 yrs of eligibility. He also had the Sox trading Keuchel and most of his salary in order to sign Scherzer at 3/120M and Conforto.

I asked him did he want the final tally on the Kimbrel trade to be Madrigal, Heuer and whatever we paid Kimbrel to shit the bed last year to be a nobody relief pitcher ? And if that's the case why even bother picking up Kimbrel option ? So yea , I have the same concerns as you and as others have suggested Segura straight up for Kimbrel might be the best case scenario.

Now that same guy @Chicago White Sox didn't like the Segura for Kimbrel trade and said just pay Escobar $10M but in his new analysis I just told you what he suggested doing with Kimbrel and his 2nd base solution was trading a prospect for Tony Kemp because he had spent all the money on Conforto and Scherzer.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

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3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Segura is a good player with a good track record. I have a hard time believing they will get better than him. Since the decision is already made on Kimbrel  they now have to rid themselves of his salary while getting the best piece possible in return If you can trade salary for salary while at the same time filling one of our holes you have to do it.

There's one guy on the board who did a very detailed analysis on what he would do with the roster with James Fox's saying Reinsdorf is going to have payroll around $190-$200M. He had the Phillies eating the whole contract and giving us a relief pitcher who has 1 inning pitched in the last 2 years ,was injured last year, is 27 and has 3 yrs of eligibility. He also had the Sox trading Keuchel and most of his salary in order to sign Scherzer at 3/120M and Conforto.

I asked him did he want the final tally on the Kimbrel trade to be Madrigal, Heuer and whatever we paid Kimbrel to shit the bed last year to be a nobody relief pitcher ? And if that's the case why even bother picking up Kimbrel option ? So yea , I have the same concerns as you and as others have suggested Segura straight up for Kimbrel might be the best case scenario.

Yeah I’d do backflips if they got Segura straight up for Kimbrel haha

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12 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Segura is a good player with a good track record. I have a hard time believing they will get better than him. Since the decision is already made on Kimbrel  they now have to rid themselves of his salary while getting the best piece possible in return If you can trade salary for salary while at the same time filling one of our holes you have to do it.

There's one guy on the board who did a very detailed analysis on what he would do with the roster with James Fox's saying Reinsdorf is going to have payroll around $190-$200M. He had the Phillies eating the whole contract and giving us a relief pitcher who has 1 inning pitched in the last 2 years ,was injured last year, is 27 and has 3 yrs of eligibility. He also had the Sox trading Keuchel and most of his salary in order to sign Scherzer at 3/120M and Conforto.

I asked him did he want the final tally on the Kimbrel trade to be Madrigal, Heuer and whatever we paid Kimbrel to shit the bed last year to be a nobody relief pitcher ? And if that's the case why even bother picking up Kimbrel option ? So yea , I have the same concerns as you and as others have suggested Segura straight up for Kimbrel might be the best case scenario.

Now that same guy @Chicago White Sox didn't like the Segura for Kimbrel trade and said just pay Escobar $10M but in his new analysis I just told you what he suggested doing with Kimbrel and his 2nd base solution was trading a prospect for Tony Kemp because he had spent all the money on Conforto and Scherzer.

What we gave up for Kimbrel is completely irrelevant to the current decision.  Are we trying to win a World Series next year or is pretending the Kimbrel trade wasn’t a disaster more important?  Like I said, I want to dump Kimbrel for the best return that takes on the least amount of money possible.  I would then reinvest that money into RF and the rotation.

Regarding Escobar, I’m just saying I’d rather just sign him for $10M than pick up Kimbrel’s option in order to land Segura.  I’d still rather prioritize other needs because $14M+ for a 2 to 2.5 win 2B isn’t a huge value with what 2B are going for right now.

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17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What we gave up for Kimbrel is completely irrelevant to the current decision.  Are we trying to win a World Series next year or is pretending the Kimbrel trade wasn’t a disaster more important?  Like I said, I want to dump Kimbrel for the best return that takes on the least amount of money possible.  I would then reinvest that money into RF and the rotation.

Regarding Escobar, I’m just saying I’d rather just sign him for $10M than pick up Kimbrel’s option in order to land Segura.  I’d still rather prioritize other needs because $14M+ for a 2 to 2.5 win 2B isn’t a huge value with what 2B are going for right now.

I totally understand where you're coming from and to make my point to the poster I responded to I used your return for Kimbrel as an example. Didn't do it to make you look bad.

Unfortunately I think what we gave up for Kimbrel is totally relevant because once the Sox decided to pick up his option they now have to maximize his trade value because if they don't they look even worse by compounding the disaster of a trade by picking up his option and getting nothing in return.

If they made the trade for Kimbrel you suggested every media outlet in the US and every voice of the fan on twitter and elsewhere will be asking  "Why the fuck did they pick up his option if all they got was some nobody relief pitcher " ? Why not just decline the option and let him become a FA ? They picked up his option to maximize some value in a trade which you did not do.

You asked  "Are we trying to win a World Series next year or is pretending the Kimbrel trade wasn’t a disaster more important? " Good question . Probably should ask the Sox then why they picked up his option. But since they did pick it up they obviously intend to try to salvage something from that trade.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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15 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I totally understand where you're coming from and to make my point to the poster I responded to I used your return for Kimbrel as an example. Didn't do it to make you look bad.

Unfortunately I think what we gave up for Kimbrel is totally relevant because once the Sox decided to pick up his option they now have to maximize his trade value because if they don't they look even worse by compounding the disaster of a trade by picking up his option and getting nothing in return.

If they made the trade for Kimbrel you suggested every media outlet in the US and every voice of the fan on twitter and elsewhere will be asking  "Why the fuck did they pick up his option if all they got was some nobody relief pitcher " ? Why not just decline the option and let him become a FA ? They picked up his option to maximize some value in a trade which you did not do.

First off, it’s nothing but love Cali.  But I must say that anything we can get for Kimbrel without eating money is a huge win.  If picking up his option saves us $1M and gets us a reliever like Dominguez then we should all applaud Rick Hahn.  The cost we paid for Craig originally is a sunk cost and nothing we can do will make up for it.  Just got to move forward with the best move that optimizes our chances to win in 2022 even if it reiterates the Kimbrel trade was a massive L.

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You don’t compound the Kimbrel mistake by adding nearly the exact same amount in Segura that Kimbrel was going to require had you actually wanted him on your roster for 2022, which is quite obviously NOT the case.

The point of the Madrigals and Vaughns of the world was offsetting the bigger veteran contracts.

Now we’re just compounding the problems by creating more holes in the future (2023/24 and beyond) line-ups with veteran placeholders like Segura or Kemp.

 

Meanwhile, we’ve lost $15 million more in payroll flexibility…which almost would have paid for Conforto in the first place.

Which is fine at $190-200 million, but not so much at $170-175 million.

 

Despite this article, I think the number of SoxTalk posters willing to bet their house on a $190+ million Opening Day payroll are few and far between.  (It would look even more idiotic if they don’t find the right trade partner and they then carry Kimbrel into the season after LaRussa already acknowledged during the playoffs it wasn’t a good fit.)

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4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

First off, it’s nothing but love Cali.  But I must say that anything we can get for Kimbrel without eating money is a huge win.  If picking up his option saves us $1M and gets us a reliever like Dominguez then we should all applaud Rick Hahn.  The cost we paid for Craig originally is a sunk cost and nothing we can do will make up for it.  Just got to move forward with the best move that optimizes our chances to win in 2022 even if it reiterates the Kimbrel trade was a massive L.

I just don't think that's how most fans see it. The guy I responded to didn't think Segura was even enough for Kimbrel straight up. And that suggestion basically traded Kimbrel's salary for Segura's and filled one of our holes. Obviously he's not LH but he's a good player and for only 1 year we give Jose Rodriquez, Yolbert Sanchez and Romy Gonzalez chances to grow and perhaps fill 2nd base down the road.

I know I wouldn't be applauding Hahn for minimizing the return on Kimbrel when all he had to do was not pick up the option. I'd be pissed that he doubled down on his losses and lost again. I'd put it under my favorite files of Sox disasters called "Sox Gonna Sox."

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31 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What we gave up for Kimbrel is completely irrelevant to the current decision.  Are we trying to win a World Series next year or is pretending the Kimbrel trade wasn’t a disaster more important?  Like I said, I want to dump Kimbrel for the best return that takes on the least amount of money possible.  I would then reinvest that money into RF and the rotation.

Regarding Escobar, I’m just saying I’d rather just sign him for $10M than pick up Kimbrel’s option in order to land Segura.  I’d still rather prioritize other needs because $14M+ for a 2 to 2.5 win 2B isn’t a huge value with what 2B are going for right now.

I agree. It's not a huge value. However, the question should be; "is it a better value than $16 million for Kimbrel?" Since we don't know what the market for Kimbrel is, perhaps we should simply ask ourselves whether we would rather have Segura on a one year $14.25 million contract, plus the $1 million to buy his option out, next year, or Kimbrel on a $16 million, one year contract? Of course, this is all hypothetical, because we don't even know whether Dombrowski would make the trade, even if Hahn proposed it. I even wonder how many teams would take Kimbrel, if the Sox offered to just give him away, with his one year contract. It's going to be interesting to see what Hahn can get for him.

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8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

You don’t compound the Kimbrel mistake by adding nearly the exact same amount in Segura that Kimbrel was going to require had you actually wanted him on your roster for 2022, which is quite obviously NOT the case.

The point of the Madrigals and Vaughns of the world was offsetting the bigger veteran contracts.

Now we’re just compounding the problems by creating more holes in the future (2023/24 and beyond) line-ups with veteran placeholders like Segura or Kemp.

 

Meanwhile, we’ve lost $15 million more in payroll flexibility…which almost would have paid for Conforto in the first place.

Which is fine at $190-200 million, but not so much at $170-175 million.

 

Despite this article, I think the number of SoxTalk posters willing to bet their house on a $190+ million Opening Day payroll are few and far between.  (It would look even more idiotic if they don’t find the right trade partner and they then carry Kimbrel into the season after LaRussa already acknowledged during the playoffs it wasn’t a good fit.)

I think compounding the error is picking up his option and getting a minimal return. Why do you think the Sox picked up his option in the 1st place ?Or maybe you think the Sox already compounded the error by picking up his option. That I can understand at least.

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1 minute ago, Lillian said:

I agree. It's not a huge value. However, the question should be; "is it a better value than $16 million for Kimbrel?" Since we don't know what the market for Kimbrel is, perhaps we should simply ask ourselves whether we would rather have Segura on a one year $14.25 million contract, plus the $1 million to buy his option out, next year, or Kimbrel on a $16 million, one year contract? Of course, this is all hypothetical, because we don't even know whether Dombrowski would make the trade, even if Hahn proposed it. I even wonder how many teams would take Kimbrel, if the Sox offered to just give him away, with his one year contract. It's going to be interesting to see what Hahn can get for him.

Nobody would take that deal…after the last two months and playoffs.  Too much downside, when combined with his erratic Cubs and Red Sox history.

Whatever you would value K.Jansen at for one season, Kimbrel would be $3-5 million behind.

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5 minutes ago, Lillian said:

I agree. It's not a huge value. However, the question should be; "is it a better value than $16 million for Kimbrel?" Since we don't know what the market for Kimbrel is, perhaps we should simply ask ourselves whether we would rather have Segura on a one year $14.25 million contract, plus the $1 million to buy his option out, next year, or Kimbrel on a $16 million, one year contract? Of course, this is all hypothetical, because we don't even know whether Dombrowski would make the trade, even if Hahn proposed it. I even wonder how many teams would take Kimbrel, if the Sox offered to just give him away, with his one year contract. It's going to be interesting to see what Hahn can get for him.

But the reality is the only two options aren’t keeping Kimbrel or trading him for Segura.  There are other options and ones that hopefully don’t require us taking $14.5am in salary:

.

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