2022 White Sox ZIPS projections

[maxjusttyped]

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The White Sox offense projects similarly to how it did prior to the 2021 season, which is good news for the team considering how easily they made the playoffs. But that also means the fundamental problems in the offense remain, with an additional issue compared to last year. ZiPS may be underestimating Eloy Jiménez — it’s always hard to evaluate players coming back from injury — but we can’t pretend that there isn’t some risk involved there.

There are few complaints about the rotation here. I think they could still use another arm, but four of the five likely starters for the Sox have a projected ERA+ north of 110. The only exception is Dallas Keuchel, but ZiPS sees him having a bounce-back season and at least eating innings for the team; a 99 ERA+ would be an excellent result for a team’s fifth starter. The only thing really keeping Kopech down is that I’m still not totally convinced about his 2022 role, even though I think logic dictates he’s in the rotation, though possibly with more care than his rotation-mates. Reynaldo López is just fine to have around as a spare starter, and if the Sox are only willing to spend so much money this offseason, you can make the argument that a hitter is the greater need, even assuming that Carlos Rodón does not return to the team. ZiPS has a certain fascination with Johan Dominguez as worthy of some mop-up duty, but I’m skeptical until he does it in the high minors.

Interesting takeaways/projections, to me

ZIPS loves Jake Burger. It's particularly optimistic about his defense, but he has the 6th highest WAR projection amongst position players in the org.

ZIPS does not love Eloy and Vaughn. Both have startling projections.

ZIPS projects Jose Rodriguez and Yolbert Sanchez as equivalent's for 2022 Leury Garcia.

ZIPS projects Carlos Perez better than Seby/Collins. If another team has a similar internal projection/positive scouting report on him, I could see Perez being rule 5'd.

ZIPS believes there's more left in the tank for Keuchel as a back end SP.

ZIPS believes Cease's breakout was legit and that he's the 2nd best SP on the team.

ZIPS doesn't believe Kimbrel is a special reliever anymore.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-chicago-white-sox/

[hi8is]

22 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

ZIPS believes Cease's breakout was legit and that he's the 3rd best SP on the team.

👍

[South Side Hit Men]

Solid projections as usual by FanGraphs.

• Keuchel, Cease and Kimbrel were working behind the eight ball last year greatly exceeding their 2021 IP count vs. 2019/2020.
• Nice to see Giolito's projection, he has the stuff and focus to hit that number.
• Also expect regression with Lynn. If he can somehow strengthen his stamina, it is not inevitable.
• Rodon should also be stronger longer next year, still holding longshot hope they can make something work with him again.

For hitting:

• I see Robert as the most likely to exceed his projection.
• Time will tell regarding whether Grandal can catch more than 90 games, will likely get another 20-30 if healthy at 1B and DH. The less he catches, the more negative fWAR plays (Zavala, Collins). A few of the potential veterans have already signed.
• Eloy's defense will continue to drag down his value if he continues in LF, assuming he can pull a miracle and stay healthy out there. Really hoping they explore external interest as you may get someone to overpay (still hoping for a Pablo Lopez for Eloy/Mercedes trade) which will greatly enhance the staff, and remove one less DH from the half dozen the Sox are carrying.
• Resigning Garcia and getting a starting 2B is the key priority overall. if they get a stronger fielding shortstop than Tim (Semien), would be interesting if they ask Tim to shift, may be a better fit there if he starts working on the position early.

Some may say "these projections are too pessimistic", but they take into account likelihoods of injuries (missed time and reduced production), slumps / regression applied across the entire league. Young players may have potential and talent, but they must prove it over the grind of an 162 game season. Vaughn (127 Games) slowed down toward the end, and Eloy (122, 55, 55 Games) and Robert (56 and 68 Games) will also face inevitable slumps / tired if they are fortunate to be healthy enough to play 140-150 games in a season.

[maxjusttyped]

24 minutes ago, hi8is said:

👍

ZIPS projects Cease with the 2nd highest WAR in the rotation. Am I missing something here?

edit - there's a discrepancy in the image posted and the actual projections on fangraphs. The projections listed inside the article have Cease with a slightly higher WAR projection than Lynn.

Edited November 22, 2021 by maxjusttyped

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

14 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

ZIPS projects Cease with the 2nd highest WAR in the rotation. Am I missing something here?

If the numbers you posted on the image are to be believed Cease is behind Giolito and Lynn which would make him 3rd. You said 2nd.

Edited November 22, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[maxjusttyped]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

If the numbers you posted on the image are to be believed Cease is behind Giolito and Lynn which would make him 3rd.

Oh, gotchu. I should have looked closer at the graph. Thank you. On the actual projection tables in the link Cease is projected with a higher WAR than Lynn.

[hi8is]

34 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

ZIPS projects Cease with the 2nd highest WAR in the rotation. Am I missing something here?

edit - there's a discrepancy in the image posted and the actual projections on fangraphs. The projections listed inside the article have Cease with a slightly higher WAR projection than Lynn.

Ah cool - thanks for the initial insight and clearing it up here 

[bmags]

One thing I missed in this - ZIPS likes Carlos Perez a lot with a +10 on defense and (to me) 73 wRC+. That gets you more WAR than Adam Engel, Leury garcia in those predictions. And his comp is Yadi lol.

But just underscores for me, bring in a Chirinos, but I'd be totally fine if Perez wins the job as backup.