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Robbie Ray to the Mariners, 5 years $115 million

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6 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I respect you Balta but this idea that you know what Boras will do is more omniscience than I'm willing to offer you. What we know with certainty is the mystery. Sox granted Boras and CR a benefit worth $20 million (your estimate) and will cost them a draft pick? It's intriguing.  If he signs Poppy's deal with someone else...it is #2....if he signs Poppy's deal with us it's #3. IF he signs 5/$100 with someone...you shrug and move on.   

So you have managed to exclude any circumstances where you’d believe either the White Sox made a mistake or that Boras made a deal on behalf of his client? Convenient.

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18 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

More sense?   I think its possible but at that point in 2020  NO ONE wanted Rodon and the idea we would have to agree not to guarantee $18 million for the 2022 season for Rodon to sign just seems like a ":why bother".  It's not like the franchise tag in football where he would be FORCED to sign with us if he had an amazing year.  The QO is only a tiny impediment to other teams signing him.  So we all agree that the QO is an asset...and one that the White Sox have thrown away...it's one of the most intriguing questions in the off season.   I have to believe Hahn is playing this like a chess match...we move then what will they likely move so I can make my next move.   #2 is the easy one...they think his arm IS about to fall off...they are in a greater position to know this than anyone and if they think that there is no way they make a QO offer because CR would just sign it and get $18 million.   The other option is way trickier....why would you just throw away that asset if you aren't stupid and you didn't have to?   I just think there HAS to be behind the door negotiations with Boras.  It's much easier for Boras to shop CR if there isn't a draft pick involved...so if we do this for you...what will you do for us?   It would also be a plus in CR mind...not only was he on a great team where he liked a lot of the players...but they gave him a chance this year when no one else did...and then didn't attach the QO.  Goodwill with the agent, goodwill with CR doesn't mean we get him for cheaper...just a tie goes to the White Sox.   

I think you're way over-thinking this.

Jerry Reinsdorf has always been terrified of paying pitchers while they sit on the DL. Carlos Rodon was amazing for the Sox for the first several months of the season - but then didn't give the Sox much in the last 2 months or in the playoffs. I would of been surprised if they offered him the QO, and if they had, Rodon would of certainly taken it (despite Boras saying otherwise). That's giving up 18.4 mil, for a guy that you don't even know will pitch next year. Or if he does, will he break down halfway through again? The Sox need more certainty with that 18.4 mil IMO.

I think the Sox will acquire a TOR starter one way or another and this will all make sense then. Their idea probably is to use that money towards someone who is more likely to be healthy and ready to help in an October push for a World Series.

Edited by Sarava

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7 hours ago, Sarava said:

I think you're way over-thinking this.

Jerry Reinsdorf has always been terrified of paying pitchers while they sit on the DL. Carlos Rodon was amazing for the Sox for the first several months of the season - but then didn't give the Sox much in the last 2 months or in the playoffs. I would of been surprised if they offered him the QO, and if they had, Rodon would of certainly taken it (despite Boras saying otherwise). That's giving up 18.4 mil, for a guy that you don't even know will pitch next year. Or if he does, will he break down halfway through again? The Sox need more certainty with that 18.4 mil IMO.

I think the Sox will acquire a TOR starter one way or another and this will all make sense then. Their idea probably is to use that money towards someone who is more likely to be healthy and ready to help in an October push for a World Series.

I'm going on the assumption that since he pitched in the post season that nothing is wrong with him.

You described him as breaking down but him getting much more than what the Sox got out of him was fully expected when you barely pitch in 2 yrs.

Now could he again have arm problems ? Of course,but as of now he is pretty highly rated by those projecting his status as a FA and upcoming contract. Pitching is at a premium for what Rodon accomplished in 2021.

Syndergaard hasn't pitched much just like Rodon in his previous 2 years . I have a hard time thinking Syndergaard will pitch 130 high quality innings like Rodon did yet he got $20M from the Angels. Also with that season of 130 IP under his belt Rodon could possibly pitch 175 innings next year.

Verlander missed all of 2021 with TJ surgery and is 39 and he got 2/ $50M with a players option for 2023.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

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38 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'm going on the assumption that since he pitched in the post season that nothing is wrong with him.

You described him as breaking down but him getting much more than what the Sox got out of him was fully expected when you barely pitch in 2 yrs.

Now could he again have arm problems ? Of course,but as of now he is pretty highly rated by those projecting his status as a FA and upcoming contract. Pitching is at a premium for what Rodon accomplished in 2021.

Syndergaard hasn't pitched much just like Rodon in his previous 2 years . I have a hard time thinking Syndergaard will pitch 130 high quality innings like Rodon did yet he got $20M from the Angels. Also with that season of 130 IP under his belt Rodon could possibly pitch 175 innings next year.

Verlander missed all of 2021 with TJ surgery and is 39 and he got 2/ $50M with a players option for 2023.

Except both JV and NS were workhorses before their injuries.  Rodon never has been.  Even NS has been over 150 IP four times.  Rodon has once in 7 years.

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1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Except both JV and NS were workhorses before their injuries.  Rodon never has been.  Even NS has been over 150 IP four times.  Rodon has once in 7 years.

I'll stick with what I said. JV is 39 and coming off TJ . I'm just thinking not to expect a workhorse yr from him in 2022. That's pretty high risk even for a guy like JV.

Thor also pretty high risk since he's coming off 2 years off. Rodon I'll also classify as high risk but most of those predicting his contract have him getting a multiple year offer. There is one I have seen at 1/$25 others 3 , 4 or 5 years from anywhere from $45-75M.

If I had to predict who would pitch more innings this year of the 3 I'll stick with Rodon. But I'll honestly say it's a tossup given their ages and recent histories of non pitching and injuries. Don't know if Carlos will beat the Verlander contract but being 10 yrs younger I'd make the odds even.

 

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5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'll stick with what I said. JV is 39 and coming off TJ . I'm just thinking not to expect a workhorse yr from him in 2022. That's pretty high risk even for a guy like JV.

Thor also pretty high risk since he's coming off 2 years off. Rodon I'll also classify as high risk but most of those predicting his contract have him getting a multiple year offer. There is one I have seen at 1/$25 others 3 , 4 or 5 years from anywhere from $45-75M.

If I had to predict who would pitch more innings this year of the 3 I'll stick with Rodon. But I'll honestly say it's a tossup given their ages and recent histories of non pitching and injuries. Don't know if Carlos will beat the Verlander contract but being 10 yrs younger I'd make the odds even.

 

Kind of curious why WS didn't give him a QO and, given the demand for quality arms, he has yet to sign. Seems like he would have a bigger market than Thor. My hope is we have an 'understanding' with Boras commensurate with his medical history and injury risk. Maybe 3/$50ish?   

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11 minutes ago, Flash said:

Kind of curious why WS didn't give him a QO and, given the demand for quality arms, he has yet to sign. Seems like he would have a bigger market than Thor. My hope is we have an 'understanding' with Boras commensurate with his medical history and injury risk. Maybe 3/$50ish?   

No idea what gets it done but I would hope a Rodon and Conforto contract are both in that range though others think the Conforto price could exceed Martes contract.

Any other year signing now would be super early but since Dec 1 is the deadline it's spurring some activity. There's little possibility Rodon signs early. He has to rest his arm and he might even end up having a showcase later on. It would help a lot to show him healthy but way too soon after the season for that. Only way I can see him signing early is he gets 3 years or more over $50M.

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3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

He has to rest his arm and he might even end up having a showcase later on.

I don’t think there’s precedent for a showcase by a free agent who is coming off a season demonstrating his performance.

Guys coming off an injury after being shelved for a year, sure…

But Rodon’s “showcase” already happened… in Game 4 vs the Asblows.

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6 minutes ago, hi8is said:

I don’t think there’s precedent for a showcase by a free agent who is coming off a season demonstrating his performance.

Guys coming off an injury after being shelved for a year, sure…

But Rodon’s “showcase” already happened… in Game 4 vs the Asblows.

That didn't convince many here he was healthy. While I agree a showcase is unlikely ,if Boras thinks it will help ,you never know.

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5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

That didn't convince many here he was healthy. While I agree a showcase is unlikely ,if Boras thinks it will help ,you never know.

Gausman, Scherzer or Ray signing will basically force suitors remaining at the altar to take a hard look at Rodon.

You’d have to believe Kershaw somehow ends up back with the Dodgers.

Will believe it when I see it about all these options coming to fruition in the Keuchel and Kimbrel markets.

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10 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

That didn't convince many here he was healthy. While I agree a showcase is unlikely ,if Boras thinks it will help ,you never know.

I’m sure the physical will be all teams need. 

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Just hard to imagine so little smoke after the year he had unless there is real reason to be concerned.

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I'm sure Rodon's medical picture causes a red flag of some level, but also- the Sox wont tie up 18M in Rodon because there's the chance he would end up taking it, and take til April to decide on that. Even if the chance is small.

The Mets financially are so set they can give the QO and Conforto can take as long as he wants to say yes or no. Even if they dont want him, they can do this and collect their draft pick. But the Sox have to set their budget and know their budget. We cant just get players and then see if Rodon does or doesnt add 18M onto our payroll. We just arent one of those teams.

 

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1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Except both JV and NS were workhorses before their injuries.  Rodon never has been.  Even NS has been over 150 IP four times.  Rodon has once in 7 years.

I really like the guy and no matter where he's pitching next year I wish him success. But SS is spot on. It's not my money, so if the team signed him to a QO, I wouldn't have been upset, but I'm equally not upset that they didn't. 

I still believe he signs something around $45/3 after most of the market has been played out.

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2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'm going on the assumption that since he pitched in the post season that nothing is wrong with him.

 You described him as breaking down but him getting much more than what the Sox got out of him was fully expected when you barely pitch in 2 yrs.

 Now could he again have arm problems ? Of course,but as of now he is pretty highly rated by those projecting his status as a FA and upcoming contract. Pitching is at a premium for what Rodon accomplished in 2021.

Syndergaard hasn't pitched much just like Rodon in his previous 2 years . I have a hard time thinking Syndergaard will pitch 130 high quality innings like Rodon did yet he got $20M from the Angels. Also with that season of 130 IP under his belt Rodon could possibly pitch 175 innings next year.

Verlander missed all of 2021 with TJ surgery and is 39 and he got 2/ $50M with a players option for 2023.

They gave Rodon some serious periods of rest in the 2nd half and he still wasn't 'right'. That he pitched 2.2 in a playoff game doesn't really do anything for me or for the Sox. It might say he's a gamer that is toughing it out through whatever ailment he is dealing with, and I appreciate that of him. But that's about it really. 

Bottom line. If the Sox brought him back on a QO, and did nothing else with the rotation, and then he has a season ending injury by May. Everyone and their dog will be toasting Rick Hahn for depending on a chronically injured pitcher.

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2 minutes ago, Drake Is Our Leader said:

I'm sure Rodon's medical picture causes a red flag of some level, but also- the Sox wont tie up 18M in Rodon because there's the chance he would end up taking it, and take til April to decide on that. Even if the chance is small.

The Mets financially are so set they can give the QO and Conforto can take as long as he wants to say yes or no. Even if they dont want him, they can do this and collect their draft pick. But the Sox have to set their budget and know their budget. We cant just get players and then see if Rodon does or doesnt add 18M onto our payroll. We just arent one of those teams.

 

That’s not how the Qualifying Offers work, players had 2 weeks to accept or decline them. All that happened 2 weeks ago. Conforto has already declined his QO.

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32 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Gausman, Scherzer or Ray signing will basically force suitors remaining at the altar to take a hard look at Rodon.

You’d have to believe Kershaw somehow ends up back with the Dodgers.

Will believe it when I see it about all these options coming to fruition in the Keuchel and Kimbrel markets.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's the last signing. 

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3 minutes ago, Drake Is Our Leader said:

I'm sure Rodon's medical picture causes a red flag of some level, but also- the Sox wont tie up 18M in Rodon because there's the chance he would end up taking it, and take til April to decide on that. Even if the chance is small.

The Mets financially are so set they can give the QO and Conforto can take as long as he wants to say yes or no. Even if they dont want him, they can do this and collect their draft pick. But the Sox have to set their budget and know their budget. We cant just get players and then see if Rodon does or doesnt add 18M onto our payroll. We just arent one of those teams.

 

I thought players only had 10 days to accept a QO. 

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Just now, Sarava said:

They gave Rodon some serious periods of rest in the 2nd half and he still wasn't 'right'. That he pitched 2.2 in a playoff game doesn't really do anything for me or for the Sox. It might say he's a gamer that is toughing it out through whatever ailment he is dealing with, and I appreciate that of him. But that's about it really. 

Bottom line. If the Sox brought him back on a QO, and did nothing else with the rotation, and then he has a season ending injury by May. Everyone and their dog will be toasting Rick Hahn for depending on a chronically injured pitcher.

Here’s the thing with the White Sox - if they work with what is already on their roster, getting 2 months that are elite from Rodon is a big help. Kopech can probably start for half a season, if they bring in another bullpen lefty Crochet can get some starts, and Lopez deserves some shot that he will probably get when there’s another injury. The White Sox would be better paying Rodon $18 million and getting a half season from him than paying a Ray $25 million over several years, with the partial-year pieces they have in their roster.

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2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Here’s the thing with the White Sox - if they work with what is already on their roster, getting 2 months that are elite from Rodon is a big help. Kopech can probably start for half a season, if they bring in another bullpen lefty Crochet can get some starts, and Lopez deserves some shot that he will probably get when there’s another injury. The White Sox would be better paying Rodon $18 million and getting a half season from him than paying a Ray $25 million over several years, with the partial-year pieces they have in their roster.

See to me - I'm thinking about October here. I want the Sox to win the World Series. If Rodon is leading the Cy Young race by the allstar break, but it is out of action comes October - what good does that do us? They'll be easy pickings for their first round opponent like they were for Houston.

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3 minutes ago, Sarava said:

See to me - I'm thinking about October here. I want the Sox to win the World Series. If Rodon is leading the Cy Young race by the allstar break, but it is out of action comes October - what good does that do us? They'll be easy pickings for their first round opponent like they were for Houston.

So what happens if he misses June and July but is nails in September? That’s what happened to the guy for the Braves basically.

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hhhmmm I dunno -is Ray anymore than the flavor of the month/season? Nice year --- do it again --- and again.

Edited by FoxForce2

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25 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So what happens if he misses June and July but is nails in September? That’s what happened to the guy for the Braves basically.

That would be good then.

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38 minutes ago, FoxForce2 said:

hhhmmm I dunno -is Ray anymore than the flavor of the month/season? Nice year --- do it again --- and again.

He had some really nice seasons in Arizona. He isn't a bad pitcher. I would be shocked if he's able to replicate what he did this season though. 

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53 minutes ago, Sarava said:

That would be good then.

Not if he does it for Minnesota.

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