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Robbie Ray to the Mariners, 5 years $115 million


Whisox05
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1 hour ago, maxjusttyped said:

Having genuine interest in Ray but not offering Rodon the QO would lead me to believe they really think Carlos is cooked

Ray has a much longer track record of pitching high quality innings vs. Rodon. He also has had injuries, etc. But Ray is pretty good - although I do agree durability concerns.  Still he has been a 150-175 inning pitcher for most of his career and obviously had a stellar 21 campaign.  He also is absurd at striking guys out.  

He has 3 straight pretty good years of durability - with 175 innings in 2019, 50 innings in 20 (COVID) and than 190+ this past year.  His COVID year was obviously not that great though - production wise, but 2018, 2019, & 2021 were all pretty damn good years.  If I recall Sox have always liked Ray as well and made a push for him previously (or am I misremembering that)?  

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17 minutes ago, Sarava said:

Ray scares me with the sky-high walk rates before this past season. Probably a bluff as others have said though.

Ray is a huge gamble, but if they hit the jackpot and his walk issues have been fixed......it's probably the best chance since Wheeler for them to get an affordable ace quality pitcher. There is more risk with Ray than there was with Wheeler though. 

That being said, Ray had an absurd 90.1% strand rate this year as well as a FIP~ 0.8 runs higher than his ERA. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Ray is a huge gamble, but if they hit the jackpot and his walk issues have been fixed......it's probably the best chance since Wheeler for them to get an affordable ace quality pitcher. There is more risk with Ray than there was with Wheeler though. 

Very true - it was why I love the Rodon QO or Rodon 3 to 4 year deal at reasonable price (that got Rodon the security he desired but had a fair risk / reward for the franchise). Either options for Rodon seemed great. 1 year deal - if he pitches like he previously did great and he moves on a year from now. If he doesn't, you took a shot at someone you know can be an ace but you move on next year / have flexibility to take on a longer term deal at the deadline because all you risked was 1 year.  

If you went multi-year, you feel like if Rodon really is healthy - you got something cause a healthy Rodon may not replicate last year's numbers but more often than not he's going to be pretty good. Hard not to be with that sort of stuff.  

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11 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

I don’t want to use our ever so limited money on friggen robbie ray and semien. Theyll both probably suck.

 

give me seager or scherzer or a couple mid level sp or correa or something of actual quality and not a fluke 

Semien leads all position players in fWAR over the last 3 seasons. He's been nearly 6 wins better than Correa and Seager over that same time span. I'd rather have those guys too, but how can you say someone who's been an MVP caliber player 2 of the last 3 years is a fluke? He's 1.4 fWAR ahead of the #2 position player in all of baseball over the last 3 years. Guys who are flukes aren't capable of being arguably the most productive player in baseball over a *3* season span.

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13 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Very true - it was why I love the Rodon QO or Rodon 3 to 4 year deal at reasonable price (that got Rodon the security he desired but had a fair risk / reward for the franchise). Either options for Rodon seemed great. 1 year deal - if he pitches like he previously did great and he moves on a year from now. If he doesn't, you took a shot at someone you know can be an ace but you move on next year / have flexibility to take on a longer term deal at the deadline because all you risked was 1 year.  

If you went multi-year, you feel like if Rodon really is healthy - you got something cause a healthy Rodon may not replicate last year's numbers but more often than not he's going to be pretty good. Hard not to be with that sort of stuff.  

Following the tea leaves on this it seems like a multi-year offer to Rodon is my bet.  His market is depressed...no one knows his arm strength more than the White Sox...they were kind to him and his agent by not attaching the QO...and man when he was good last year he was Corbin Burnes good...and what do we need more than a TOR lefty?  Sure he wore out at the end but it seems like CaliSoxfan was predicting that all year.   You just don't ramp up from 0 to 190 innings in a year.   He got up to 120 last year and could be 180 this year.  3 years $50 million with injury clauses?  That's Kimbrell's money...so you trade him and still have money for Semien...Vaughn in RF. Let's go get a World Series.   

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17 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Very true - it was why I love the Rodon QO or Rodon 3 to 4 year deal at reasonable price (that got Rodon the security he desired but had a fair risk / reward for the franchise). Either options for Rodon seemed great. 1 year deal - if he pitches like he previously did great and he moves on a year from now. If he doesn't, you took a shot at someone you know can be an ace but you move on next year / have flexibility to take on a longer term deal at the deadline because all you risked was 1 year.  

If you went multi-year, you feel like if Rodon really is healthy - you got something cause a healthy Rodon may not replicate last year's numbers but more often than not he's going to be pretty good. Hard not to be with that sort of stuff.  

What if you want to push hard for a championship though?  Rodon is a HUGE risk from my armchair.   Lot of money for non-guaranteed innings

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53 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

Semien leads all position players in fWAR over the last 3 seasons. He's been nearly 6 wins better than Correa and Seager over that same time span. I'd rather have those guys too, but how can you say someone who's been an MVP caliber player 2 of the last 3 years is a fluke? He's 1.4 fWAR ahead of the #2 position player in all of baseball over the last 3 years. Guys who are flukes aren't capable of being arguably the most productive player in baseball over a *3* season span.

Don't let real stats get in the way of @iWiN4PreP not liking Semien because his ratings are low in MLB The Show....

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1 hour ago, Chisoxfn said:

Ray has a much longer track record of pitching high quality innings vs. Rodon. He also has had injuries, etc. But Ray is pretty good - although I do agree durability concerns.  Still he has been a 150-175 inning pitcher for most of his career and obviously had a stellar 21 campaign.  He also is absurd at striking guys out.  

He has 3 straight pretty good years of durability - with 175 innings in 2019, 50 innings in 20 (COVID) and than 190+ this past year.  His COVID year was obviously not that great though - production wise, but 2018, 2019, & 2021 were all pretty damn good years.  If I recall Sox have always liked Ray as well and made a push for him previously (or am I misremembering that)?  

To be fair, pretty much anyone has a better health history vs Cralos Rodon.

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I’m asking this question legitimately, because, as we all know, the social media space has turned into an animate cloud of malignant, cancerous unreality and contradiction: 

When was the last time Bob Nightingale rumored something that actually occurred for the White Sox? It seems like it might be never, but I really can’t keep track. 

Edited by Eminor3rd
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Just now, Eminor3rd said:

I’m asking this question legitimately, because,  as we all know, the social media space has turned into an animate cloud of malignant, cancerous unreality and contradiction: 

When was the last time Bob Nightingale rumored something that actually occurred for the White Sox? It seems like it might be never, but I really can’t keep track. 

Tony La Russa

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