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The Second Base Options (as it stands)

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Free Agency:
Trevor Story - 112 career wRC+ estimated cost: $18M-22M+ Annually
Pluses -
  Defense (while this has been very muted outside a tremendous 2019, lots of signs he should be a great 2b - he is excellent at DP depth),
  Power   (career .251 iso)
  Walks (9% walk rae)
Minuses
  Unknown coors effects
  Below Avg vs. RHP (98 career wRC+, 83 last year, our division has excellent RHP)
  Contact (23% K rate)

Josh Harrison - 103 2021 wRC+ estimated cost ($4-5M+ annually)
Pluses - 
 
Contact (13% krate)
  Not bad vs RHP (98 wRC+)
  Defense (outs above average loves, loves Josh Harrison)
Minuses - 
  Inconsistent offense (career 98 wRC+)
  BABIP dependent
  no power
  Age of decline (34 years old)


Jose Iglesias - 91 2021 wRC+ estimated cost ($2-3M+ annually)
Pluses - 
 
Contact (14% krate)
  Defense (outs above average likes his 2b more than his SS at this age)
Minuses - 
  BABIP dependent offense
  Bad vs RHP (81 wRC+)
  Doesn't walk

Donovan Solano - 105 2021 wRC+ estimated cost ($2-3M+ annually)
Pluses - 
 
Slightly above average offensively
  Average power
  96 wRC+ (counts as positive with this group)
Minuses - 
  Bad defensively
  unreliable walk rate, higher k rate
  34 years old


Andrelton Simmons - 56 2021 wRC+ estimated cost ($6-9M+ annually)
Pluses - 
 
 World class defense at shortstop
  Can backup TA
  Plus Contact
Minuses - 
  Horrendous offense
  Zero power
  BABIP driven offense
  Career 85 wRC+ vs RHP

  

Trades:
Jean Segura - 103 2021 wRC+ COST 14M + 1M 2023 buyout
Pluses - 
 
 Great defense at second
  Contact (13% K rate)
  Average vs RHP
Minuses - 
  Fathom says he is mopey and has bad vibes
  Lacks power
  Expensive money wise

Tony Kemp - 127 2021 wRC+ COST $2.5M
Pluses - 
 
 Great OBP in 3 of last 4 years (STEAMER predicts .350 OBP)
  Career 103 wRC+ vs RHP, 130 wRC+ last year
  Good, versatile defense by OAA
  Seems like he should be cheap prospect wise
Minuses - 
  Not a strong history of reliable performance to trust any of the above aside from defense


Jeff McNeil - 93 2021 wRC+ COST PRE-ARB did not see value
Pluses - 
 
 Career 126 wRC+
  3 years of control
  Career 132 wRC+ vs RHP
  Contact 14% kRate
  Walk Rate 13% Walk Rate
  Great defense at 2b by OAA
  very likely the most perfect fit possible
Minuses - 
  Bad 2021
  Expensive by Prospects/talent likely


Ryan McMahon - 95 2021 wRC+ COST PRE-ARB did not see value
Pluses - 
 
 Above average vs RHP (106 wRC+)
  Good power (.195 iso)
  Good walk rates
Minuses - 
  Bad contact (25-30%K) 
  While excellent last year, in 2019-20 was a ground ball machine a la Leury Garcia
  Amazing at 3rd, but only average to slightly below average at 2b by OAA
  Likely requires a very strong package of talent

Tommy LaStella - 94 2021 wRC+ COST $6M
Pluses - 
 
 Madrigal-level contact
  Good BB rate
  Good GB%
  career 107 wRC+ vs RHP
Minuses - 
  Bad 2021
  Back injury in 2021 and struggled after
  Not good defensively, possibly very bad
  late bloomer
  Possible platoon bad w/ Leury

Easiest way out of this appears to be Kemp trade. Best way out seems to be McNeil, but I have 5% confidence he's traded.

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Minuses 
  Fathom says he is mopey and has bad vibes
  Lacks power
  Expensive money wise

 

Is that the recent Phillies version, Seattle or Milwaukee one?

Apparently not quite so easy to find a 2B as has been repeated over and over again since Kimbrel trade.  Certainly not one you can pretty much guarantee a 2.5 fWAR, at least.

Take another shot at Villar, but then is he going to be any better than Leury?

 

McNeil is going to cost too much talent to acquire…off the big league roster in all likelihood.

Also, we should do this for all the teams looking at Conforto for RF.

Edited by caulfield12

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5 minutes ago, Snopek said:

Great post, gross options. Gimme Harrison, Segura, Kemp or McNeil I guess?

I can get on board with some of the lesser options if they get Conforto in RF.

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I would add via trade Raul Mondesi Jr.  Also RH hitting RHP well is not the same as hitting LH. first its and average taken against all RHP faced. What it likely shows is that the killed shitty and mediocre RHP and Struggled against the aces. In the playoffs all you see is good to great pitching. Secondly, A left handed hitter causes a pitcher to change his release point making it more likely he makes a mistake. A slider pitcher like Mcullers will also be reluctant to throw a slider to a lefty and will opt for a change-up which would be his 3rd or 4th best pitch, which he is more likely to make a mistake with.

So all these post about he's rh but hits rhp good are kind of missing the point. Its a nice thing to have but its better to have some quality LH hitters.

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6 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I can get on board with some of the lesser options if they get Conforto in RF.

Yup, that was the assumption I was making. With Kemp and Harrison being those lesser options I'd be okay with.

Edited by Snopek
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I'm not sure I'd be okay with Josh Harrison. I kinda think he is a DFA candidate in June. 

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McNeal would be great, especially cause he can play some OF too.  But I think that's a pipedream.  He'd be very expensive and Mets are trying to win.  

For me, 2B predicates quite a bit on what we do in RF.  If we were to sign Conforto, we can go any number of directions at 2B and be fine.

LaStella is still a super interesting name for me.  Giants could probably still use more SP and Keuchel would play well in that park.  Those two are close to an eveb swap $ wise, but LaStella has 2 years ($5.25M in 22; $11.5M in 23) versus Keuchel's 1 year at $18M (with $1.5M buyout on $20M team option that becomes vesting upon 160 IP in 22).  Sox probably have to throw something interesting in here as well - perhaps Burger would interest them.  They are getting old and thin and IF corners. 

I love the LaStella fit.  That also creates about $12M in room for 22, combined with moving Kimbrel, Sox would create about $30M to spend on Conforto and SP by going this route.  

Lineup: Anderson SS, Moncada 3B, Abreu 1B, Eloy DH, Grandal C, Robert CF, Conforto RF, Vaughn LF, LaStella 2B

Rotation: Giolito, Lynn, Kopech, Cease and FA SP

But the FA SP options getting pretty thin, so perhaps we go trade route with Gray/Castillo/Mahle/Manea/Bassit for the last SP using Sheets as the headliner with a combination of our HS pitching prospects and/or MLB ready guys that don't have much of a role in Chicago moving forward. 

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If they get an all-star caliber (or close to it) bat in RF, they have more than enough in their lineup to be a great offense with an average 2B.

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I also don't think there is a snowballs chance of McNeil being traded.

I didn't include my personal pet theory of Robinson Cano, shame on me.

The roided version of him was still pretty darn good with the Mets. And you basically swap out the keuchel liabilities and ask for cash for 2022 on him.

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3 minutes ago, bmags said:

I also don't think there is a snowballs chance of McNeil being traded.

I didn't include my personal pet theory of Robinson Cano, shame on me.

The roided version of him was still pretty darn good with the Mets. And you basically swap out the keuchel liabilities and ask for cash for 2022 on him.

I would have rather have just paid he opt-out than this option.

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Just now, Bob Sacamano said:

I would have rather have just paid he opt-out than this option.

I honest to god think it could work out.

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1 minute ago, bmags said:

I also don't think there is a snowballs chance of McNeil being traded.

I didn't include my personal pet theory of Robinson Cano, shame on me.

The roided version of him was still pretty darn good with the Mets. And you basically swap out the keuchel liabilities and ask for cash for 2022 on him.

A Kuechel for Cano trade is kind of interesting if you assume Conforto is in hand .  But he's still due $40M from the Mets the next 2 seasons.  Not really sure how you can make the finances make sense for both sides.  Not sure essentially flipping Keuchel for Cano with Mets eating the difference ($22M or so) really makes sense for either side.  Its interesting enough to talk about tho purely in a time wasting fashion and we sit here the next couple months with no activity.  

LaStella is a much more interesting name in terms of chances of actually happen and the economics. 

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I really hope Madrigal ends up mediocre/really is an irredeemable ass, otherwise trading him to downgrade 2B for much more money seems really stupid.

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4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

A Kuechel for Cano trade is kind of interesting if you assume Conforto is in hand .  But he's still due $40M from the Mets the next 2 seasons.  Not really sure how you can make the finances make sense for both sides.  Not sure essentially flipping Keuchel for Cano with Mets eating the difference ($22M or so) really makes sense for either side.  Its interesting enough to talk about tho purely in a time wasting fashion and we sit here the next couple months with no activity.  

LaStella is a much more interesting name in terms of chances of actually happen and the economics. 

Would it make any sense for the Mets to take Keuchel and Kimbrel for Cano? 

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2 minutes ago, almagest said:

I really hope Madrigal ends up mediocre/really is an irredeemable ass, otherwise trading him to downgrade 2B for much more money seems really stupid.

I think this is already etched is stone.  The trade was, in fact, really, really stupid. 

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

Free Agency:
Trevor Story - 112 career wRC+ estimated cost: $18M-22M+ Annually
Pluses -
  Defense (while this has been very muted outside a tremendous 2019, lots of signs he should be a great 2b - he is excellent at DP depth),
  Power   (career .251 iso)
  Walks (9% walk rae)
Minuses
  Unknown coors effects
  Below Avg vs. RHP (98 career wRC+, 83 last year, our division has excellent RHP)
  Contact (23% K rate)

Josh Harrison - 103 2021 wRC+ estimated cost ($4-5M+ annually)
Pluses - 
 
Contact (13% krate)
  Not bad vs RHP (98 wRC+)
  Defense (outs above average loves, loves Josh Harrison)
Minuses - 
  Inconsistent offense (career 98 wRC+)
  BABIP dependent
  no power
  Age of decline (34 years old)


Jose Iglesias - 91 2021 wRC+ estimated cost ($2-3M+ annually)
Pluses - 
 
Contact (14% krate)
  Defense (outs above average likes his 2b more than his SS at this age)
Minuses - 
  BABIP dependent offense
  Bad vs RHP (81 wRC+)
  Doesn't walk

Donovan Solano - 105 2021 wRC+ estimated cost ($2-3M+ annually)
Pluses - 
 
Slightly above average offensively
  Average power
  96 wRC+ (counts as positive with this group)
Minuses - 
  Bad defensively
  unreliable walk rate, higher k rate
  34 years old


Andrelton Simmons - 56 2021 wRC+ estimated cost ($6-9M+ annually)
Pluses - 
 
 World class defense at shortstop
  Can backup TA
  Plus Contact
Minuses - 
  Horrendous offense
  Zero power
  BABIP driven offense
  Career 85 wRC+ vs RHP

  

Trades:
Jean Segura - 103 2021 wRC+ COST 14M + 1M 2023 buyout
Pluses - 
 
 Great defense at second
  Contact (13% K rate)
  Average vs RHP
Minuses - 
  Fathom says he is mopey and has bad vibes
  Lacks power
  Expensive money wise

Tony Kemp - 127 2021 wRC+ COST $2.5M
Pluses - 
 
 Great OBP in 3 of last 4 years (STEAMER predicts .350 OBP)
  Career 103 wRC+ vs RHP, 130 wRC+ last year
  Good, versatile defense by OAA
  Seems like he should be cheap prospect wise
Minuses - 
  Not a strong history of reliable performance to trust any of the above aside from defense


Jeff McNeil - 93 2021 wRC+ COST PRE-ARB did not see value
Pluses - 
 
 Career 126 wRC+
  3 years of control
  Career 132 wRC+ vs RHP
  Contact 14% kRate
  Walk Rate 13% Walk Rate
  Great defense at 2b by OAA
  very likely the most perfect fit possible
Minuses - 
  Bad 2021
  Expensive by Prospects/talent likely


Ryan McMahon - 95 2021 wRC+ COST PRE-ARB did not see value
Pluses - 
 
 Above average vs RHP (106 wRC+)
  Good power (.195 iso)
  Good walk rates
Minuses - 
  Bad contact (25-30%K) 
  While excellent last year, in 2019-20 was a ground ball machine a la Leury Garcia
  Amazing at 3rd, but only average to slightly below average at 2b by OAA
  Likely requires a very strong package of talent

Tommy LaStella - 94 2021 wRC+ COST $6M
Pluses - 
 
 Madrigal-level contact
  Good BB rate
  Good GB%
  career 107 wRC+ vs RHP
Minuses - 
  Bad 2021
  Back injury in 2021 and struggled after
  Not good defensively, possibly very bad
  late bloomer
  Possible platoon bad w/ Leury

Easiest way out of this appears to be Kemp trade. Best way out seems to be McNeil, but I have 5% confidence he's traded.

Jeff McNeil is my guy I want and has been for awhile.

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5 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Would it make any sense for the Mets to take Keuchel and Kimbrel for Cano? 

I don't see why the Sox would do that.  Create 2 holes, and maybe sorta kinda solve one in 2B with a 40 YO Cano, but take on money in the process.  

I think Cano would make some sense with Conforto in hand purely as a salary dump from the Mets.  Basically, Mets eat $30 of the $40M they owe him and Sox take a $5M AAV gamble on 40 and 41 year old Cano.  Anything more than that doesn't make much sense for the Sox, IMO. 

Edited by ChiSox59
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1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think this is already etched is stone.  The trade was, in fact, really, really stupid. 

For whatever reason Madrigal and Heuer were firmly in their "must trade" pool, and that's fine if their talent evaluators said "sell high please" or they were both low character guys. Using them for Kimbrel was a bad decision at the time, looks even worse by his performance, and is only redeemable if they pull off a coup of a trade.

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16 minutes ago, bmags said:

I also don't think there is a snowballs chance of McNeil being traded.

I didn't include my personal pet theory of Robinson Cano, shame on me.

The roided version of him was still pretty darn good with the Mets. And you basically swap out the keuchel liabilities and ask for cash for 2022 on him.

Cano had to stop playing winter ball because of a bad back.

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16 minutes ago, bmags said:

I also don't think there is a snowballs chance of McNeil being traded.

I didn't include my personal pet theory of Robinson Cano, shame on me.

The roided version of him was still pretty darn good with the Mets. And you basically swap out the keuchel liabilities and ask for cash for 2022 on him.

I too am intrigued by a Keuchel/Cano swap if nothing else can come.

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2 minutes ago, almagest said:

For whatever reason Madrigal and Heuer were firmly in their "must trade" pool, and that's fine if their talent evaluators said "sell high please" or they were both low character guys. Using them for Kimbrel was a bad decision at the time, looks even worse by his performance, and is only redeemable if they pull off a coup of a trade.

They didn't sell high on Madrigal though.  That's the problem. 

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