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South Side Hit Men

You have $30m to complete the roster...

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Carrying forward a thread from the 2021 offseason, this is an offshoot of the ongoing 2022 Offseason Plan Thread.

While trades will occur once a CBA is finalized, and the Sox very may well at least attempt to trade Craig Kimbrel and or others, for the purpose of this thread, we will proceed with the assumption of the current roster, free agent spending only, and no trades to free up roster spots or additional funds for traded salary.

What you would do if you had $30M to spend once the CBA is Finalized?

The one suggestion to allow comparability across posters / proposed rosters is to try to use a crowded sourced or independent valuation for the contracts you propose. I have linked three free public sources below, but you can use others as well.

  1. Fangraphs Free Agent Tracker: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker 
  2. MLB Trade Rumors: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html
  3. Sportrac: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/

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If we can’t trade at all and need to address RF, 2B, & SP, then I’d do the following:

  • Michael Conforto: 4/$76M ($19M AAV)
  • Matthew Boyd: 1/$6M
  • Brad Miller: 1/$3M

That leaves about $2M left for some random backup catcher.  But man is it challenging to fill the rest of our holes through free agency.  Just not a lot of 2B worth consideration, which means anyone worth a damn is coming via trade.

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I’m in the minority of this board in having faith in Vaughn and want him to have a full time starting spot next year. I’d love to sign an impact 2B, but that chance has pretty much disappeared. So I’d go with the only impact position we have a realistic shot at signing…LH power DH. Went with Schwarber here, but Rizzo/Seager could be cheaper short term options.
And Villar/Hernandez will be sufficient for us at 2B with our lineup, can’t have all 9 guys be all-star talents. 
Also have faith in Kopech next year and don’t think SP is that big of a need. Keuchle is a huge disappointment and overpaid, but he’ll be fine as a #5, is what it is. Don’t think things are completely done with Reylo being a competent SP either. Things could be MUCH worse with him as the 6th/long man.

I like Jimmy Nelson or John Gant as cheap high upside pen options that can go multiple innings. 
 

Kyle Schwarber (DH) 4/60

Jonathan Villar 2/12

Jimmy Nelson 1/5
 

TA

Moncado

Robert

Jose

Schwarber 

Eloy

Yaz

Vaughn

Villar


Engel, Luery, Collins, Sheets on the bench 


Lynn

Gio

Cease

Kopech

Keuchle

 

Reylo

Nelson

Burr

Ruiz

Crochet

Bummer

Graveman

Hendricks


That’s a pretty strong 26 man roster imo…and doesn’t include a solution to the Kimbrel fiasco. The biggest question is OF defense, but I’d personally be willing to gamble on that with what that lineup would be capable of doing. 

Edited by TheFutureIsNear
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One thing the players hopefully realize is that the owners get hurt far more by the loss of a season than they players. Yes, the pre-arb players might have a challenging year without a salary, but the owners will each lose millions upon millions of revenue, while still having to pay non-player staff.

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Just now, Texsox said:

A lot of that staff gets laid off. At least in the previous work stoppages.

Your ticket sales staff and stadium staff, sure, but KW and Hahn and the personnel people under them still get paid.

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42 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

One thing the players hopefully realize is that the owners get hurt far more by the loss of a season than they players. Yes, the pre-arb players might have a challenging year without a salary, but the owners will each lose millions upon millions of revenue, while still having to pay non-player staff.

The loss of a season doesn't work for anyone.

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1 hour ago, CentralChamps21 said:

One thing the players hopefully realize is that the owners get hurt far more by the loss of a season than they players. Yes, the pre-arb players might have a challenging year without a salary, but the owners will each lose millions upon millions of revenue, while still having to pay non-player staff.

I'm not sure how true this is. Players have a finite # of years to make their money. If they lose a season, that money is gone and is not coming back. While the owners also lose that money, they can be in the game for decades (like JR owning the Sox for 40 years). And generally, they are wealthier and therefore can absorb financial hits easier.

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1 minute ago, Sarava said:

I'm not sure how true this is. Players have a finite # of years to make their money. If they lose a season, that money is gone and is not coming back. While the owners also lose that money, they can be in the game for decades (like JR owning the Sox for 40 years). And generally, they are wealthier and therefore can absorb financial hits easier.

Losing an entire season damages the game long term, and players are only in the game a few years whereas owners make money for a lifetime. Plus, if the players hold strong, they will more than make back in a new deal what they lose from one season.

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Fangraphs crowd source has Conforto with 17m (albeit on 1 yr assumption) and Schwarber 4/60 (15 AAV). 

For purposes of this hypothetical, since we cannot make trades to shed salary (or to open up spots, at DH for instance for Schwarber), you'd have to go with Conforto at the AAV of 17 (I doubt he will take this). 

Realistically though, in a real world post CBA, we should be able to shed Kimbrel, especially if we eat say 3-4m of that 16m salary. That still produces 12-13m in savings. 

Edited by SoCalChiSox

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1 minute ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Fangraphs crowd source has Conforto with 17m (albeit on 1 yr assumption) and Schwarber 4/60 (15 AAV). 

For purposes of this hypothetical, since we cannot make trades to shed salary (or to open up spots, at DH for instance for Schwarber), you'd have to go with Conforto at the AAV of 17 (I doubt he will take this). 

Realistically though, in a real world post CBA, we should be able to shed Kimbrel, especially if we eat say 3-4m of that 16m salary. That still produces 12-13m in savings. 

Having $30 million is trading Kimbrel. Under the old rules, they would have about $13 million available right now.

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13 hours ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Losing an entire season damages the game long term, and players are only in the game a few years whereas owners make money for a lifetime. Plus, if the players hold strong, they will more than make back in a new deal what they lose from one season.

The problem is the players are negotiating for themselves and future players and owners are just negotiating for themselves, and the players will run out of money faster than the owners will. 

Ideally you would think they would negotiate something that benefits all, but that obviously won't happen. Players will eventually cave with some slight face saving adjustments they will say we're critical.

Edited by Dick Allen

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Is it $30 million in addition to Craig Kimbrel because that's doable for sure I'd think. Maybe something like this: 

Trade Craig Kimbrel and Matt Foster to Philadelphia for Jean Segura, Jose Alvarado and Rafael Marchan 

Trade Gavin Sheets and Zack Collins to Oakland for Sean Manaea and upside reliever of some sort? 

Sign OF Michael Conforto to 4 year $88 million deal. Backload the deal. 

Re-Sign Ryan Tepera for 2 years $14 million

 

1. Tim Anderson SS 

2. Yoan Moncada 3B 

3. Luis Robert CF 

4. Yasmani Grandal C 

5. Jose Abreu 1B 

6. Eloy Jimenez LF 

7. Michael Conforto RF 

8. Andrew Vaughn DH 

9. Jean Segura 2B 

Bench 

C Rafael Marchan 

INF/OF Leury Garcia 

OF Adam Engel 

LHB Bench bat of some sort 

 

Rotation

1. Lance Lynn 

2. Lucas Giolito 

3. Dylan Cease 

4. Sean Maneae 

5. Michael Kopech 

 

Bullpen 

Liam Hendriks RHP 

Kendall Graveman RHP 

Ryan Tepera RHP 

Reynaldo Lopez RHP 

Aaron Bummer LHP 

Garrett Crochet LHP 

Jose Alvarado LHP 

Dallas Keuchel LHP 

 

 

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53 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Is it $30 million in addition to Craig Kimbrel because that's doable for sure I'd think. Maybe something like this: 

Trade Craig Kimbrel and Matt Foster to Philadelphia for Jean Segura, Jose Alvarado and Rafael Marchan 

Trade Gavin Sheets and Zack Collins to Oakland for Sean Manaea and upside reliever of some sort? 

Sign OF Michael Conforto to 4 year $88 million deal. Backload the deal. 

Re-Sign Ryan Tepera for 2 years $14 million

 

1. Tim Anderson SS 

2. Yoan Moncada 3B 

3. Luis Robert CF 

4. Yasmani Grandal C 

5. Jose Abreu 1B 

6. Eloy Jimenez LF 

7. Michael Conforto RF 

8. Andrew Vaughn DH 

9. Jean Segura 2B 

Bench 

C Rafael Marchan 

INF/OF Leury Garcia 

OF Adam Engel 

LHB Bench bat of some sort 

 

Rotation

1. Lance Lynn 

2. Lucas Giolito 

3. Dylan Cease 

4. Sean Maneae 

5. Michael Kopech 

 

Bullpen 

Liam Hendriks RHP 

Kendall Graveman RHP 

Ryan Tepera RHP 

Reynaldo Lopez RHP 

Aaron Bummer LHP 

Garrett Crochet LHP 

Jose Alvarado LHP 

Dallas Keuchel LHP 

 

 

Marchan is an interesting name.  Haven't seen him brought up before.

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Comments:

Good signings @Chicago White Sox.

I agree with your assessment @TheFutureIsNear, I also suggested to broaden the trade net to try to open up flexibility across the high priced FA/extensions of the past two offseasons, and also agree the Schwarber would be one of the best high impact bats, he was the top consideration for me in terms of impact bats, but I only passed due to the overload of DH/LF options on the current roster.

@Y2Jimmy0 - While I do agree it likely the Sox will at minimum attempt to flip Kimbrel and your moves make sense in that context. For the purposes of this thread, I tried to keep the parameters the same as last year (strictly an assessment of $30M for free agency).

Introduction:

My initial plan focused on three aspects. 1. Clearing some of the higher priced veterans for young talent which can win now. 2. Improving the team defensively. 3. Adding free agents to bring a TOR starter and improve defensively behind the plate (Contreras and Gomes, ironically the current two Cubs catchers).

Robbie Ray, Yan Gomes and Leury Garcia were my three Free Agent targets in late October. The three came in at slightly over the $30M range we are using for this excercise. Leury returned as expected, Ray and Gomes signed solid deals which I wish the Sox were able to offer and secure. Matz was not an initial target, but his deal was also team friendly and something I wish the Sox were able to match / exceed and sign, almost as much as Cohen. 

My four current acquisition targets at this stage are:

  1. Carlos Rodon (Age 29 $19.0M AAV - $76M/3+1 KH terms) - Assuming his medicals check out, he is the top starting pitcher. Perhaps have a creative terms like the Hendriks deal, giving Carlos a higher guarantee with a flexible final year. Now that he is working off of a solid innnings base, a return to his form of last year will make him a formidable playoff starter able to help navigate the team through the postseason.
  2. Josh Harrison (Age 35 $5.0M 1 year + team option) - I preferred Lux or another solid trade acquisition, and while I wouldn't have renewed Kimbrel, I would prefer a trade for Segura at this stage, but for the purpose of this exercise, Harrison provides the best opportunity to provide a solid presence at 2B. Villar and Iglesias both have 2B listed in the Fangraphs Free Agent list, but their primary experience is other positions, and the Sox would be best served by a regular 2B, not converting one on the fly and hoping it works out. J Hey is an adequate fielder with a decent bat, providing a 1.5 fWAR last season / 1/2 projected for 2022. He will allow Leury to do what he does best, provide the team flexibility across many positions.
  3. Stephen Vogt (Age 37 $3.5M 1 year) - Of the remaining catchers, he is the best defensive option and will provide a solid veteran presence to help work with pitchers. He can work with Lucas and Carlos (Grandal can DH or play 1B those days) while Grandal can work with Lynn, Cease and Keuchel.
  4. Jake Diekman (Age 35 $2.5M 1 year) - While I considered a 5th OF with the remaining funds (Schwarber and Pederson far out of reach with the available budget), I believe adding one more reliever, in part to allow flexibility with Kimbrel, is the best use of the remaining budget. Signing him more for his October possibilities than to get the Sox through the regular season, as the can muddle through with Ruiz/Burr for the final spot. Has playoff experience and is another solid piece to the bullpen at a reasonable cost.

Fan Graphs White Sox Roster 

2022 Free Agent Tracker

2022 Offseason Take Two Final Roster: (Steamer Projected  2021 Games (or Innings for pitchers) / fWAR)

  • Infield: C Grandal (127 / 4.5); 1B Abreu (150 / 2.1); 2B Harrison (118 / 1.2); SS Anderson (150 / 3.3); 3B Moncada (149 / 3.8).
  • Outfield/DH: Robert (149 / 4.8) Jimenez (146 (HA!) / 2.5; Vaughn (115 / 1.5) & Sheets (110 / 1.0).
  • Reserves: INF Garcia (112 / 1.1); OF Engel (87 / 0.5); C Vogt (45 / 0.2); INF/OF Mendick (39 / 0.3).
  • Starters: Giolito (184 / 3.3); Rodon (154 / 3.8); Lynn (187 / 3.4); Kopech (145 / 2.7); Cease (170 / 3.0) Keuchel (161 / 1.2).
  • Relievers: Hendriks (68 / 1.5); Bummer (64 / 0.9); Crochet (74 / 0.9); Kimbrel (66 / 0.7); Diekman (69 / 0.6); Graveman (62 / 0.4); Lopez (57 / 0.3).
  • Minor League Standby: Lambert, Adolfo, Ruiz.

 

Edited by South Side Hit Men
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Sorry I'm dumb and got distracted by labor talks but we are doing $30M from the team salary where it stands right now (includes kimbrel, graveman, leury?)

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Sign Michael Conforto 4/$72M ($18M AAV)

Trade Keuchel (-$18M) + Burger (-$650k) to San Fran for Tommy LaStella ($5.5M)

Trade Kimbrel (-$16M) to Phillies to Seranthony Dominguez ($800k) and Mickey Moniak ($650k)

Sign Clayton Kershaw 2/$45M ($22.5M AAV)

Resign Ryan Tepera 2/$17M ($8.5M)

Chris Archer 1/$8M with plenty of incentives.

NET NET is $30M spent.

Lineup: Anderson SS, Moncada 3B, Abreu 1B, Eloy DH, Grandal C, Robert CF, Conforto RF, Vaughn LF, LaStella 2B 

Rotation: Giolito, Lynn, Kershaw, Cease, Kopech, Archer (Kopech works some from pen as well to control innings)

Bullpen: Hendriks, Bummer, Graveman, Tepera, Crochet, Dominguez, Lopez

BN: Engel, Leury, Sheets, Collins/Zavala

BEST ROSTER IN BASEBALL. 

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6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Sign Michael Conforto 4/$72M ($18M AAV)

Trade Keuchel (-$18M) + Burger (-$650k) to San Fran for Tommy LaStella ($5.5M)

Trade Kimbrel (-$16M) to Phillies to Seranthony Dominguez ($800k) and Mickey Moniak ($650k)

Sign Clayton Kershaw 2/$45M ($22.5M AAV)

Resign Ryan Tepera 2/$17M ($8.5M)

Chris Archer 1/$8M with plenty of incentives.

NET NET is $30M spent.

Lineup: Anderson SS, Moncada 3B, Abreu 1B, Eloy DH, Grandal C, Robert CF, Conforto RF, Vaughn LF, LaStella 2B 

Rotation: Giolito, Lynn, Kershaw, Cease, Kopech, Archer (Kopech works some from pen as well to control innings)

Bullpen: Hendriks, Bummer, Graveman, Tepera, Crochet, Dominguez, Lopez

BN: Engel, Leury, Sheets, Collins/Zavala

BEST ROSTER IN BASEBALL. 

Some other thoughts:

  • Wasn't really focusing on Kershaw at all previously, but found myself with a lot of $ to spend after the big time $ saving moves trading Keuchel and Kimbrel.  Note that while LaStella only makes $5.5M in 22; it jumps to 10.5M in 23.  So net dolalrs are close to even, and we throw in Burger to offset.
  • Could go trade route for SP instead of Kershaw (Sonny Gray perhaps), which again would create $10M.
  • Another trade target in the Kimbrel trade to Philly could be Marchan instead of Moniak.  Dollars stay same, but solves backup C issue.  Moniak seems like a change of scenery guy and wouldn't be horrible AAA insurance.  But Marchan works there too. 
  • Found myself with $15M to spend even after Kershaw, so went with luxuries in Archer and Tepera.  That pen would be filthy. Kershaw probably ends up costing more than $22.5M AAV though, so could bump that to 2/$55M and remove Archer or Tepera.  I'd hate spending that much $ on late career Kershaw, but may be what it takes.  
  • Final thoughts: trading Kimbrel and Keuchel creates a ton of options.  I fully expect Kimbrel to be moved in a trade like the ones discussed.  Keuchel could be tougher sell.  Though I do think this LaStella framework makes a lot of sense for both sides. 
Edited by ChiSox59

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

Sorry I'm dumb and got distracted by labor talks but we are doing $30M from the team salary where it stands right now (includes kimbrel, graveman, leury?)

Yes, this is the perimeters established in this thread, consistent with last years thread.

Roster as is at the start of tehe lockout (Kimbrel, Graveman, Leury on the team), add Free Agent(s) remaining with $30M.

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4 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Yes, this is the perimeters established in this thread, consistent with last years thread.

Roster as is at the start of tehe lockout (Kimbrel, Graveman, Leury on the team), add Free Agent(s) remaining with $30M.

Ok great, looking forward to this.

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On 12/4/2021 at 8:05 PM, Sarava said:

I'm not sure how true this is. Players have a finite # of years to make their money. If they lose a season, that money is gone and is not coming back. While the owners also lose that money, they can be in the game for decades (like JR owning the Sox for 40 years). And generally, they are wealthier and therefore can absorb financial hits easier.

I haven't seen it reported anywhere, but I wonder if MLB owners have a L'loyds of London type policy to protect them against lost revenue?  

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2 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

I haven't seen it reported anywhere, but I wonder if MLB owners have a L'loyds of London type policy to protect them against lost revenue?  

I can't imagine anyone offering insurance on something that is 100% due to their own actions, and fully within their own control.

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11 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I can't imagine anyone offering insurance on something that is 100% due to their own actions, and fully within their own control.

Actually, In 1981 when the players went on strike,  the owners had a $100,000 per game insurance policy.  But this is a lockout which to your point would be under the owners control. But there are such policies called business interruption insurance but they may not be applicable with a lockout.  

 

"The unique risk for sports today is with cancelations. 

Most every business insurance policy includes a provision for business interruption. And by the sound of it, business interruption insurance should kick in if the business is, well, interrupted." 

 

https://www.insurancequotes.com/business/sports-insurance-covid

 

 

https://www.insurancequotes.com/business/sports-insurance-covid

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Invest that $30 million in SoxTalk SPAC and eventual take to market via IPO…everyone can be millionaires like BuzzFeed.

Or to create the best analytics department in baseball, one that is the envy of all.

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