Crochet having Tommy John surgery Tuesday

[bmags]

I remember in like 2018 or something after a draft where the sox again used a bunch of 4-10 round picks on relievers someone quoted Haber saying they thought this could be the new moneyball.

After a relatively homegrown bullpen in 2020, they've now spent $50 million to build a bullpen and used a top 25 prospect and first round pick to supplement it.

I guess they didn't find the new moneyball

[Capn12]

[Y2Jimmy0]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

I remember in like 2018 or something after a draft where the sox again used a bunch of 4-10 round picks on relievers someone quoted Haber saying they thought this could be the new moneyball.

After a relatively homegrown bullpen in 2020, they've now spent $50 million to build a bullpen and used a top 25 prospect and first round pick to supplement it.

I guess they didn't find the new moneyball

One point of mine on this is it comes with the territory of spending all the pool money in early rounds. If you overslot in 1-4, the best value in rounds 5-10 is college relievers essentially. Sox have used Weems, Horn and Moore in deals recently. Sousa will be in the big leagues. Bilious probably will be too. Shilling would be. Gil Luna and Caleb Freeman could be soon as well. I wasn’t a fan of the Crochet pick because I’d just always take position players that high because pitchers break. Then they rushed him and he’s basically forced into a bullpen role on a contending club. I’d argue the Sox have done a solid job finding future relievers that have value. They have to hit on their early overslot picks though for it to matter. 

[ptatc]

23 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

A quick check finds that the average first round pick is worth 7 WAR give or take. There were 10 relievers in all of baseball who put up 2 WAR last year. So, you need him to come back from TJS and immediately have him become a top 10 reliever in baseball and stay there with no issues for 3 years to get that kind of value from him.

There is one reliever in all of baseball who has been a top 10 WAR reliever each of the last 3 years, one other who would probably have gotten there if 2020 had been normal (Hader).

You are literally saying “he will come back and immediately be a top 3 reliever in all of baseball.”

1. Do we know he needs a UCL reconstruction?

2. Are you just assuming he will never be a starter?

[ptatc]

10 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Do the Sox not have anybody in the org. telling them the same thing? Or were they told that and just decided to take the risk?

I have no idea what their process is. However his high ceiling talent was tempting.

Just because he had a high chance of injury doesn't mean it career ending.

Everyone is acting like his career is over. If it is serious and something like a UCL reconstruction,  he has an 85% chance if returning.

[ChiSox59]

Let's maybe wait to hear the news before we amputate Crochet's left arm.  This board isn't exactly known for nailing injury severity in the immediate aftermath.  Doesn't look or sound great, but this isn't the first time Crochet has provided a scare.  Hopefully this is more like a playoff 2020 situation where he's on the shelf for a few weeks to a couple months instead of TJS. 

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, ptatc said:

1. Do we know he needs a UCL reconstruction?

2. Are you just assuming he will never be a starter?

I think it is a safe guess right now that the injury we saw yesterday is a TJS. I’m pretty sure you’d be as surprised as me if it was only a partial tear or something like that.

If he is down for a Tommy John surgery, then given his lack of innings I think it is an inescapable conclusion that he will never be a starter. The white Sox will have only 3 years of control with him and that will not be enough time to stretch him out before he leaves. They will put him in the bullpen and no one will bother trying anything else.

[Quin]

While I know it's 99% likely it's Tommy John, I'm gonna hold out hope that it's an Andrew Vaughn situation where we all thought he was dead and then they were like "nah, false alarm y'all he's good. Just gonna let him get stretched out. Didn't do his callisthenics today, y'know, short spring training and all."

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think it is a safe guess right now that the injury we saw yesterday is a TJS. I’m pretty sure you’d be as surprised as me if it was only a partial tear or something like that.

If he is down for a Tommy John surgery, then given his lack of innings I think it is an inescapable conclusion that he will never be a starter. The white Sox will have only 3 years of control with him and that will not be enough time to stretch him out before he leaves. They will put him in the bullpen and no one will bother trying anything else.

I don't know about you, but I didn't see anything. Didn't sound great, but honestly who knows?

That said, I'll say it again... babying pitchers only prolongs the inevitable, it does in no way protect them.

Pitching is an unnatural motion. Some guys can handle it and throw thousands of innings without issue, others can't. Max effort has had an impact on injuries, sure, but guys are more likely to go max effort because they work under the assumption that their innings will be limited and giving it all is what keeps them in the league. Max effort would go down if innings went up. Also, if innings go up, guys will likely get hurt and weed themselves out sooner; at least with modern medicine, an injury isn't the end for you. You'll likely just hit the operating table sooner.

I see no evidence to support that innings management and pitch managemement has done anything to elongate careers or limit injuries. In fact, I have seen the opposite. While injuries are more publicized now because of coverage - guys were absolutely getting hurt in the minors for years without fans hearing a peep - it's undeniable that pitching injuries at the big league level have trended upward steadily for over two decades. 

Edited April 1, 2022 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[bmags]

17 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

One point of mine on this is it comes with the territory of spending all the pool money in early rounds. If you overslot in 1-4, the best value in rounds 5-10 is college relievers essentially. Sox have used Weems, Horn and Moore in deals recently. Sousa will be in the big leagues. Bilious probably will be too. Shilling would be. Gil Luna and Caleb Freeman could be soon as well. I wasn’t a fan of the Crochet pick because I’d just always take position players that high because pitchers break. Then they rushed him and he’s basically forced into a bullpen role on a contending club. I’d argue the Sox have done a solid job finding future relievers that have value. They have to hit on their early overslot picks though for it to matter. 

Eh, I'm not sure I buy this. They traded college relievers because they have nothing else of mid-level value in their system. And when you are trading those picks for .5 year relievers and then having to pay full market value for relievers how much surplus value are you really generating with this approach? 

[he gone.]

While it's not great news, at least it's from a position of depth. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

yup.  I didn't really like the pick (but whatever), he had a high ceiling.. What I HATED however, was the way we handled him in every way.

They did Crochet a disservice with the way they chose to him develop.  They did what was best for the organization instead of what's best for the player.  He should have been sent tp the minors and given the time to develop as a starter and as a pitcher so he could have the opportunity to max out his immense talent.  Instead they chose to rush him to the big leagues like they did with all their recent top picks so they could get max value out of a minimum salary and yet again paid the long term consequences.  This organization sucks.

[southsider2k5]

 

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They did Crochet a disservice with the way they chose to him develop.  They did what was best for the organization instead of what's best for the player.  He should have been sent tp the minors and given the time to develop as a starter and as a pitcher so he could have the opportunity to max out his immense talent.  Instead they chose to rush him to the big leagues like they did with all their recent top picks so they could get max value out of a minimum salary and yet again paid the long term consequences.  This organization sucks.

They did him a disservice starting his arb clock, guaranteeing him a MLB pension and healthcare for life and allowing him a MLB player lifestyle rather than minor league? 

Dude, step back from the ledge. He could have blown out his arm just as easily in Birmingham.

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They did Crochet a disservice with the way they chose to him develop.  They did what was best for the organization instead of what's best for the player.  He should have been sent tp the minors and given the time to develop as a starter and as a pitcher so he could have the opportunity to max out his immense talent.  Instead they chose to rush him to the big leagues like they did with all their recent top picks so they could get max value out of a minimum salary and yet again paid the long term consequences.  This organization sucks.

I think the no-season in 2020 and him getting to the big leagues and dominating for a few innings didn't help the idea of sending him back down in 2021. I also thought you didn't like him as a starter in the first place?

I think the Sox should have given him a chance to start, but the kid is still only 22. It's not as if he is in his mid-to-late twenties and pigeon holed into his role. I'm not sure how he would have held up better as a starter; I think we would have gotten to this inevitable point sooner, which might help him in the long run, but I'm not sure I buy that it would have kept him healthier. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

42 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

7. Error bars are high enough that it might be 8-9, but 7 is a good number for the first round. As I said last time. Have a paper. I assume with this data you’ll say that clearly 7 was being generous and you admit that even a 2 WAR reliever for 3 years would be average performance at best.

https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa200586

 

Crochet is 22 years old. As a career reliever with his stuff and early production, you're looking at 12-15 career WAR if not more, which is well beyond the error bars you're showing here.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

25 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I have no idea what their process is. However his high ceiling talent was tempting.

Just because he had a high chance of injury doesn't mean it career ending.

Everyone is acting like his career is over. If it is serious and something like a UCL reconstruction,  he has an 85% chance if returning.

Given his age, I'd put the percentage a good bit higher than 85%. 

[bmags]

I think he's probably fine. Vibes are turning positive. He probably just had a boo boo.

[Two-Gun Pete]

20 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I see no evidence to support that innings management and pitch managemement has done anything to elongate careers or limit injuries. In fact, I have seen the opposite.

Ok, did you have a link to show this?

WRT IP management, there must be a reason why SPs don't throw for 200-300 IP/year any more. WRT pitch management, I'm assuming you mean "pitch count." If so, why does Dusty Baker no longer let his SP throw a metric fuckton of pitches/start, as he did with prior and wood when he was in Chicago? And why do pretty much all teams in MLB have pitch counts as well?

If you're referring to something else WRT "pitch management," could you clarify? 

 

I'm not disbelieving your position. If just like to see what you've seen as well.

 

Thanks.

Edited April 1, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Who was handled this way other than Sale & Crochett?

I didn't like the way that Rodon was rushed to the bigs, either. I felt like a talented, but reportedly lazy guy like him needed to "earn it" a bit, WRT his fitness and preparation. 

He later had to go through a cavalcade of injuries, being let go by his draft team, before he apparently had his "come to Jesus" moment, and finally took care of his body.

 

I'll grant that "learning how to get MLB hitters out" is a great deal of the development process. But there are other things to learn as well, IMO. 

[Bob Sacamano]

Expect the worst. Hope for the best.

[ptatc]

42 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I don't know about you, but I didn't see anything. Didn't sound great, but honestly who knows?

That said, I'll say it again... babying pitchers only prolongs the inevitable, it does in no way protect them.

Pitching is an unnatural motion. Some guys can handle it and throw thousands of innings without issue, others can't. Max effort has had an impact on injuries, sure, but guys are more likely to go max effort because they work under the assumption that their innings will be limited and giving it all is what keeps them in the league. Max effort would go down if innings went up. Also, if innings go up, guys will likely get hurt and weed themselves out sooner; at least with modern medicine, an injury isn't the end for you. You'll likely just hit the operating table sooner.

I see no evidence to support that innings management and pitch managemement has done anything to elongate careers or limit injuries. In fact, I have seen the opposite. While injuries are more publicized now because of coverage - guys were absolutely getting hurt in the minors for years without fans hearing a peep - it's undeniable that pitching injuries at the big league level have trended upward steadily for over two decades. 

While I agree with all of this in principle, you can't take someone who threw 13 innings one year and expect him to  throw 100 the next.

You need to ramp up the innings and once he gets there then throw more.

[ptatc]

54 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think it is a safe guess right now that the injury we saw yesterday is a TJS. I’m pretty sure you’d be as surprised as me if it was only a partial tear or something like that.

If he is down for a Tommy John surgery, then given his lack of innings I think it is an inescapable conclusion that he will never be a starter. The white Sox will have only 3 years of control with him and that will not be enough time to stretch him out before he leaves. They will put him in the bullpen and no one will bother trying anything else.

I still think they will try to make him a starter. The advantage now may be that he won't be a starter until near FA and he may be more affordable. 

[ptatc]

27 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I didn't like the way that Rodon was rushed to the bigs, either. I felt like a talented, but reportedly lazy guy like him needed to "earn it" a bit, WRT his fitness and preparation. 

He later had to go through a cavalcade of injuries, being let go by his draft team, before he apparently had his "come to Jesus" moment, and finally took care of his body.

 

I'll grant that "learning how to get MLB hitters out" is a great deal of the development process. But there are other things to learn as well, IMO. 

I think his injuries were a result of his throwing as well not the way he was handled. Does it really matter where the innings are majors or minors, as far as health is concerned?

I think it's more the max effort and mechanics that are the issues. I'm not sold on the fact that he wouldn't have been trying to throw 98 all the time in the minors like he did in the majors.

When they drafted him, I said he would end up with shoulder issues. He has that same stand up follow through.

[ChiSox59]

5 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I still think they will try to make him a starter. The advantage now may be that he won't be a starter until near FA and he may be more affordable. 

If you want to assume the worst and he's headed to TJS, I just don't think its possible really.  He's out all of 22 and half of 23.  He'll come back as reliever mid-season 23.  So then in 24 you have a guy who only has 2 years of control and has never pitched more than 55 innings in a season.  There is not enough time for the Sox to make him a starter under that scenario.   

Now, I think cart is a bit ahead of horse on the TJS talk.  Doesn't look good, but I'll wait for the release.