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BamaDoc

4/10 Games

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26 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

I hope the pitching advances early. The last thing I want to see is no pitching emerge and the Sox draft a college arm that can “get up quickly though limited upside and likely reliever “ profile. That’s fine if it is non first round  senior type for 10k where you could accomplish both cheap relief and $ versatility for other picks. 

I think @Y2Jimmy0 said the other day that taking relievers in rounds 5-10 is the way to go, letting you overspend your pool towards the top of the draft.

I'm much more down with that draft philosophy vs. drafting another Burdi

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While the system definitely deserves its 30th place ranking, it could move up substantially in a hurry.  Honestly, by mid season I’d expect Colas to be considered a top 100 guy.  And by season’s end, I’d expect Montgomery & Ramos to be there as well.  Going from zero top 100 prospects to three would be pretty sweet given our lower draft positions and lack of additional picks in recent years.  And I wouldn’t be shocked if a fourth guy snuck in there between Vera, Burke, Popeye, or Kath.

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4 hours ago, bmags said:

Yeah, I mean this is an exciting start to the season but I don't think what we are seeing is out of step with that ranking and still think it's what it deserved.

But here are reasons why I think it was valid:

- Unlike previous white sox dead last farm rankings, the system does include quite a bit of talent that could become high-end. But much like previous dead last rankings we have these huge depth issues where multiple positions have no help close to being found. SP makes up close to 20% of a major league roster and it's a bunch of 40 FV guys and MILB depth until you get to A+, and I'm talking about Burke there, who has a lot of arm build-up left.

- In 2018-19 our farm was super fun not just because it had a bunch of high-end guys, but they were all performing. 2021 was the inverse of that, while we had some successes in guys like Romy, Rodriguez and Ramos emerge with really good years, our high-budget draft picks of Kelly, Dalquist and Thompson had atrocious years. Our Kanny young hitters had mostly atrocious years (Beard, Gladney, Bailey,  Previously promising pitchers like Stiever and Lambert reaffirmed they were now just fodder after coming back from injuries.

- Possible Guy Norge Vera didn't play, and exciting pickup cespedes didn't light the world on fire as a for-his-age prospect in High-A. 

So basically we have a farm with a bunch of potential (Thompson, Dalquist, Kelly, Vera and added Kath, Montgomery, Macdougal) that hasn't come close to showing it yet and is viewed with more skepticism, while guys that are performing (Rodriguez, Sosa, Ramos, Mieses) are building up a case but still viewed skeptically (though ramos probably about to burst through, my sweet boy Rodriguez is still viewed at arms length as just a UTIL guy unless he improves hit tool).

And when you compare that to other teams, it's lack of immediate top 150 guys sticks out, and then guys we are excited also have guys like that in every other org.

But that said, with a 2019-esque year on the farm, it could jump up quite a bit because they are a young group. AND our bottom of the league farm of the early-mid-10s produced way more major league impact than would have been predicted. 

AND guys that were just considered bleh like Sheets and Burger last year have contributed quite a bit to the major league club. It's not destitute, but it isn't inaccurate.

The main thing for me is they just need to add MORE. More more more more more. Bigger LatAm, and I don't know that we can afford these 2020 like classes. I think looking back I'm totally cool with 2021. Kath was not as expensive as I remember, and we did some big work in the 11-20 range. 

I think you stated this very well.  I've been trying to make the argument poorly...but this is potentially the best "worst farm team".  I've followed a lot of bad Sox farm systems and I just don't feel like this one was that bad.  I think their top 30...top fifteen for sure...is filled with a lot of very high potential guys that because of a series of bizarre circumstances (COVID, Cuba tax issues, injuries) didn't show the upside .   I also feel like the point of the farm system is not to produce a bunch of Leury Garcia's and Matt Fosters....but to produce the occasional Tim Anderson/Aaron Bummers.   I would rather add a couple of potential stars each year than a dozen filler pieces.  But if you have a dozen filler pieces the system-ranking guys loves you because your farm teams win a lot of games and you have lots of "major league ready" parts.  Still I completely agree that they need to add MORE.  It's so discouraging as a fan to look at the thin soup of Charlotte roster...even the Birmingham roster...there's nothing wrong with having a couple of stars AND a bunch of filler pieces.  Leury Garcia has value...it's just not sexy.    The biggest problem with the "worst farm system" narrative is that I think the White Sox had a bad history of drafting and international scouting that they have fixed but it is taking time to work through the system and we should see the results this year (and would have earlier except for COVID).     

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4 hours ago, bmags said:

Yeah, I mean this is an exciting start to the season but I don't think what we are seeing is out of step with that ranking and still think it's what it deserved.

But here are reasons why I think it was valid:

- Unlike previous white sox dead last farm rankings, the system does include quite a bit of talent that could become high-end. But much like previous dead last rankings we have these huge depth issues where multiple positions have no help close to being found. SP makes up close to 20% of a major league roster and it's a bunch of 40 FV guys and MILB depth until you get to A+, and I'm talking about Burke there, who has a lot of arm build-up left.

- In 2018-19 our farm was super fun not just because it had a bunch of high-end guys, but they were all performing. 2021 was the inverse of that, while we had some successes in guys like Romy, Rodriguez and Ramos emerge with really good years, our high-budget draft picks of Kelly, Dalquist and Thompson had atrocious years. Our Kanny young hitters had mostly atrocious years (Beard, Gladney, Bailey,  Previously promising pitchers like Stiever and Lambert reaffirmed they were now just fodder after coming back from injuries.

- Possible Guy Norge Vera didn't play, and exciting pickup cespedes didn't light the world on fire as a for-his-age prospect in High-A. 

So basically we have a farm with a bunch of potential (Thompson, Dalquist, Kelly, Vera and added Kath, Montgomery, Macdougal) that hasn't come close to showing it yet and is viewed with more skepticism, while guys that are performing (Rodriguez, Sosa, Ramos, Mieses) are building up a case but still viewed skeptically (though ramos probably about to burst through, my sweet boy Rodriguez is still viewed at arms length as just a UTIL guy unless he improves hit tool).

And when you compare that to other teams, it's lack of immediate top 150 guys sticks out, and then guys we are excited also have guys like that in every other org.

But that said, with a 2019-esque year on the farm, it could jump up quite a bit because they are a young group. AND our bottom of the league farm of the early-mid-10s produced way more major league impact than would have been predicted. 

AND guys that were just considered bleh like Sheets and Burger last year have contributed quite a bit to the major league club. It's not destitute, but it isn't inaccurate.

The main thing for me is they just need to add MORE. More more more more more. Bigger LatAm, and I don't know that we can afford these 2020 like classes. I think looking back I'm totally cool with 2021. Kath was not as expensive as I remember, and we did some big work in the 11-20 range. 

The one thing I really wonder about the Kelly, Dalquist, Thompson, Beard, Gladney, Bailey, etc. group is that they got screwed on two fronts: COVID cost them their 2020 season (Kelly less so than the others, but still) and I do wonder the minor league contraction might have affected them in any way. They're all so young that I could have seen the Sox giving them some burn in Great Falls to get acclimated to pro ball.

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42 minutes ago, Quin said:

The one thing I really wonder about the Kelly, Dalquist, Thompson, Beard, Gladney, Bailey, etc. group is that they got screwed on two fronts: COVID cost them their 2020 season (Kelly less so than the others, but still) and I do wonder the minor league contraction might have affected them in any way. They're all so young that I could have seen the Sox giving them some burn in Great Falls to get acclimated to pro ball.

Yeah. I mean from the zoomed out view, the sox had years of very old drafts and penalty-reduced INTL leading up to 2020. Shirley takes over, we presume he sees the cliff and does budget to get more young talent in, but covid means our 2020 draft is 5(?) rounds. 

So kanny was just this perfect storm of guys who barely played stateside, HS who missed the Great Falls step, ets.

But it was still disappointing on the Kelly/Dalquist/Thompson side to me just because they had more team emphasis and Schaumburg time and were just so unprepared. Instead of making them hungrier it seemed to make them complacent. Excited to see how they respond.

 

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6 hours ago, Quin said:

I think @Y2Jimmy0 said the other day that taking relievers in rounds 5-10 is the way to go, letting you overspend your pool towards the top of the draft.

I'm much more down with that draft philosophy vs. drafting another Burdi

They've done a solid job of it. Just finding seniors that you like and paying them $10K each ($60K total in rounds 6-10) and you use the entire pool on 1-5 essentially and save money to go over $150K on day three with multiple guys. 

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