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Interim 5th Starter?

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Posted (edited)

If we extrapolate or project out to 32 from his 19 starts for ATL in 2019, he becomes a 1.35 fWAR that season.

Just for argument's sake $10.8 million in FA value created.

We gave him $55.5 million.

Money which wasn't or isn't there to sign Rodon and extend Giolito. And now there's at least a 25% chance he gets 160 innings and locks in a $20 million 2023 contract because the Sox are going to lose that grievance starting VV over him.

Unless VV goes all 2003 Loiaza or 2021 Rodon.

Of course, 4.9 fWAR for Rodon would be worth almost a $40 million yearly salary...ceteris paribus.

Edited by caulfield12

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8 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

It's pretty sad that Cueto on a minor league deal was better last year than Keuchel making $18M.  1.5 fWAR for Cueto in 16 starts and Keuchel .6 fWAR in 30 starts. Cueto also K's more and walks less per 9 IP than Keuchel.

Of course JC pitched in SF while Keuchel pitched  here so Cueto could be just as bad or worse here .

His 1st year here was damn good but if his last 2 stink getting Wheeler instead of Keuchel could've made a big difference.

Still it makes me wonder if the Keuchel durabilty and rep as a quality innings eater was more important at the front of the window than taking a shot on Rodon being excellent with durability issues smack dab in the middle of the contention window. Obviously the Sox were hoping Keuchel could be more valuable during the middle of the window but it hasn't yet. Chalk another one up (so far) for good money on mediocrity.

I know you really like Rodon but he was never excellent prior to last year. When they signed Keuchal he was an decent pitcher who could never stay healthy. There was never an excellence about him.

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8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

As Keuchel had a 0.3 HR/9 in 2020 and exactly 0 qualified starters had that low of a HR/9 in the more normal length 2021, I will give you a bet right now that Keuchel won’t pitch like he did in 2020 as his numbers that year were a short season mirage.

That's possible. If he doesn't the decision is easy and he won't hit the innings mark anyway.

Unfortunately,  I highly doubt the starting pitching doesn't miss anymore time after Giolito and Lynn return. If Cueto doesn't pitch well they may be stuck.

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9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

What were the odds of Keuchel being really strong at this point in his career when almost nobody wanted to touch him coming off that season with the Braves?

They looked pretty good after his 1st year but the huge drop off last year hurt badly. Going forward you want him to be good of course but that might mean $20M on him next year.

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Just now, ptatc said:

I know you really like Rodon but he was never excellent prior to last year. When they signed Keuchal he was an decent pitcher who could never stay healthy. There was never an excellence about him.

It's fair to say he was more or less a 2.5~3ish fWAR pitcher from age 28-30. But his one outlier season of 5.7 goes all the way back to 2015.

Then you have to consider the fall off at ages 32-34. Just watching his radar gun readings and spin rates would have elegantly expressed the clear decline.

So a bit similar to Shields in many ways...except for the Cy Young.

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18 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Choosing between VV and Keuchel is like choosing which turd is more polished. VV is the more polished turd. 

They are our turds so I try to like them.

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11 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

They looked pretty good after his 1st year but the huge drop off last year hurt badly. Going forward you want him to be good of course but that might mean $20M on him next year.

He isn't going to vest even with good stuff.  A good start for him is 5 innings.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, poppysox said:

He isn't going to vest even with good stuff.  A good start for him is 5 innings.

He hit 162 last year and he was bad.

Edited by ptatc
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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, poppysox said:

He isn't going to vest even with good stuff.  A good start for him is 5 innings.

Sure, which is exactly how he ended up at 162.

32 x 5 will do it.

And we already know Kopech won’t get that close to 32 starts.  Lynn is looking at 23-25.  Gio down at least a couple.  And they apparently don’t want to start Lopez…at least for now.

Edited by caulfield12

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Posted (edited)

Our best hope is he pitches well.  After Gio and Lynn are back, Keuchel tweaks something and misses 3-5 starts.  Problem solved LOL.  I cannot, on a pitching starved team, hope our player does poorly.

Edited by BamaDoc

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8 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I know you really like Rodon but he was never excellent prior to last year. When they signed Keuchal he was an decent pitcher who could never stay healthy. There was never an excellence about him.

It's more about what have you done  lately. Keuchel was always a soft thrower who was the definition of a pitcher, hit your spots keep hitters off balance. However any further reduction in his stuff or command and you have a terrible pitcher who, if bad again this year, cost you $54M for 2 bad years and 1 good year with his only attribute that he probably won't get injured.

Rodon on the other hand almost single handedly rocketed the Sox to the best record in baseball in the 1st half and without him at his best in the 2nd half the Sox were a .500 team. Even if you matched the SF offer you already got a great 1/2 year from him with the promise of more great pitching ,with durability issues slightly lessened by the innings he pitched last year and his work to strengthen that part of his game. Compared to the Keuchel deal it wouldn't have been that bad. But we have already established how we both feel about Rodon.

The only reason we disagree is because the Sox would rather pay out decent money 3yr. $54M w/option year for $20M on an older, durable, mediocre pitcher and hope he can be better than mediocre and stay healthy than pay out decent money on a younger, not so durable , great pitcher (recent greatness). Those seem to be our only 2 options since many years for great money isn't an option. Bad innings pitched is still innings pitched ,saves BP arms, but still costs you losses and he still has a chance to get hurt like any other pitcher. Good innings pitched gets you more wins but if you get hurt your replacement usually isn't going to get wins or save BP arms. We're both looking at "6 of one, half dozen of the other" situations, worse case scenarios.

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49 minutes ago, ptatc said:

He hit 162 last year and he was bad.

Hey we agree. If he's good imagine how many innings he gets plus playoff innings . Do playoff innings count towards the options year ?

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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Sure, which is exactly how he ended up at 162.

32 x 5 will do it.

And we already know Kopech won’t get that close to 32 starts.  Lynn is looking at 23-25.  Gio down at least a couple.  And they apparently don’t want to start Lopez…at least for now.

There is no way he will throw 32 half-decent outings.  20 or so if he's lucky.  My belief is that his abilities will be self-limiting.  Of course, the FO needs to keep a lookout for the unexpected resurgence of his glory years...but I'm not worried that is going to happen.

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22 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Hey we agree. If he's good imagine how many innings he gets plus playoff innings . Do playoff innings count towards the options year ?

Are we really worried that he will be too good?  

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4 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Are we really worried that he will be too good?  

I'm not, I hope it does happen. I want him to earn his money. Don't want to root against him at all but I'm not expecting much.

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55 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

It's more about what have you done  lately. Keuchel was always a soft thrower who was the definition of a pitcher, hit your spots keep hitters off balance. However any further reduction in his stuff or command and you have a terrible pitcher who, if bad again this year, cost you $54M for 2 bad years and 1 good year with his only attribute that he probably won't get injured.

Rodon on the other hand almost single handedly rocketed the Sox to the best record in baseball in the 1st half and without him at his best in the 2nd half the Sox were a .500 team. Even if you matched the SF offer you already got a great 1/2 year from him with the promise of more great pitching ,with durability issues slightly lessened by the innings he pitched last year and his work to strengthen that part of his game. Compared to the Keuchel deal it wouldn't have been that bad. But we have already established how we both feel about Rodon.

The only reason we disagree is because the Sox would rather pay out decent money 3yr. $54M w/option year for $20M on an older, durable, mediocre pitcher and hope he can be better than mediocre and stay healthy than pay out decent money on a younger, not so durable , great pitcher (recent greatness). Those seem to be our only 2 options since many years for great money isn't an option. Bad innings pitched is still innings pitched ,saves BP arms, but still costs you losses and he still has a chance to get hurt like any other pitcher. Good innings pitched gets you more wins but if you get hurt your replacement usually isn't going to get wins or save BP arms. We're both looking at "6 of one, half dozen of the other" situations, worse case scenarios.

True. But again. At the time of the Keuchal signing, Rodon wasn't all that great either. So it wasn't sign, Keuchal or Rodon. It was sign Keuchal or Wheeler. Rodon was an after thought at that point.

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54 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Hey we agree. If he's good imagine how many innings he gets plus playoff innings . Do playoff innings count towards the options year ?

Good question. I'm not sure if it's total innings or regular season innings.

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1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Hey we agree. If he's good imagine how many innings he gets plus playoff innings . Do playoff innings count towards the options year ?

Is there a scenario where he gets playoff innings but hasn't been good enough that we're worried about the option vesting?

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14 minutes ago, ptatc said:

True. But again. At the time of the Keuchal signing, Rodon wasn't all that great either. So it wasn't sign, Keuchal or Rodon. It was sign Keuchal or Wheeler. Rodon was an after thought at that point.

Of course I never made the point that it was choose Rodon or Keuchel at the exact same moment in time. The choice was the contracts at different points in time when one was trusted to be good over a long stretch  ( 4yrs Max) while the other wasn't trusted to be good over a 2 yr stretch ( possibly one yr. if he opts out of the SF contract.)

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Is there a scenario where he gets playoff innings but hasn't been good enough that we're worried about the option vesting?

He could pitch just OK somewhere between 2020 and 2021 where he might be just good enough to get the 160 innings or not make the 160 innings during the season. That's why I asked if playoff innings counted towards the vesting option. If he starts 30 games and averages 5 innings a game with a  4.25 ERA that isn't terrible in the AL and could warrant  playoff starts beyond the 1st round depending on all the other starting pitchers availability. That would be 150 IP during the season but maybe a couple of playoffs start to push him beyond 160 . If the playoffs innings don't count towards the option that's the best situation I can come up with.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

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7 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

He could pitch just OK somewhere between 2020 and 2021 where he might be just good enough to get the 160 innings or not make the 160 innings during the season. That's why I asked if playoff innings counted towards the vesting option. If he starts 30 games and averages 5 innings a game with a  4.25 ERA that isn't terrible in the AL and could warrant  playoff starts beyond the 1st round depending on all the other starting pitchers availability. That would be 150 IP during the season but maybe a couple of playoffs start to push him beyond 160 . If the playoffs innings don't count towards the option that's the best situation I can come up with.

If he does that, the extra $18.5M he would get would only be a slightly bad contract rather than a really bad one.

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21 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

If he does that, the extra $18.5M he would get would only be a slightly bad contract rather than a really bad one.

Some might describe that as "tradable"

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On 4/13/2022 at 1:15 AM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

He could pitch just OK somewhere between 2020 and 2021 where he might be just good enough to get the 160 innings or not make the 160 innings during the season. That's why I asked if playoff innings counted towards the vesting option. If he starts 30 games and averages 5 innings a game with a  4.25 ERA that isn't terrible in the AL and could warrant  playoff starts beyond the 1st round depending on all the other starting pitchers availability. That would be 150 IP during the season but maybe a couple of playoffs start to push him beyond 160 . If the playoffs innings don't count towards the option that's the best situation I can come up with.

98% sure it only counts regular season innings…

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