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ron883

It's time to put Jose out to pasture

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1 hour ago, Texsox said:

Let's trade em all for prospects. I love those fifteen game under .500 decades while dreaming of being competitive.

That was only under Hahn and then you have to go back to the 80s.

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This post needs to be put out to pasture

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Still a Jose fan but he and Yaz need to get their butts in gear. You guys are letting us down. 

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Btw there's a long long laundry list of good players with track records under the 600 ops mark still...

If Jose, Harrison Kelly Lynn Grandal Keuchel Pollock all continue to struggle/don't return to past form, we are going nowhere fast.

AJ is showing some positive signs of pulling out of it.

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1 hour ago, scs787 said:

I believe I heard on the radio he's still near the top of the league in barrells this season. If that is the case, it sounds like he's been a bit unlucky. Not sure where to find that stat, but I'm sure someone else can confirm. 

Jose is not near the top of the league in barrel%. He’s in the upper half though.

Where Abreu (and Grandal) stand out is the difference statistics - subtracting their expected numbers based on their contact profile from their actual numbers.

For wOBA - xwOBA, Abreu is 9th and Grandal is 15th. For slug - xSlug, Abreu is 3rd and Grandal is top 10.

Now hypothetically the expected numbers being that much better than the observed numbers would signal guys who had been unlucky and whose performance could swing the other way.

However, this year we have a complicating factor, the ball. All of the expected statistics I checked require a calibration- statcast measures launch angle, exit velocity, etc, but those numbers need a conversion to torn into expected stats, and that conversion will be based on what has happened in previous years. If the ball changes, then that calibration will be biased.

It is possible to probable that some players will have batted ball profiles that make them extra vulnerable to the new ball. Could that be Abreu and Grandal? Possible, do not have enough data to speculate further.

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I keep going back to his comments in ST about taking it year by year (about his future baseball career). His play and effort reeks of someone just going through the motions.

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If Abreu comes back 1 yr deal and most games DH, take it or move on. His bat is slowing down considerably.

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2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Jose is not near the top of the league in barrel%. He’s in the upper half though.

Where Abreu (and Grandal) stand out is the difference statistics - subtracting their expected numbers based on their contact profile from their actual numbers.

For wOBA - xwOBA, Abreu is 9th and Grandal is 15th. For slug - xSlug, Abreu is 3rd and Grandal is top 10.

Now hypothetically the expected numbers being that much better than the observed numbers would signal guys who had been unlucky and whose performance could swing the other way.

However, this year we have a complicating factor, the ball. All of the expected statistics I checked require a calibration- statcast measures launch angle, exit velocity, etc, but those numbers need a conversion to torn into expected stats, and that conversion will be based on what has happened in previous years. If the ball changes, then that calibration will be biased.

It is possible to probable that some players will have batted ball profiles that make them extra vulnerable to the new ball. Could that be Abreu and Grandal? Possible, do not have enough data to speculate further.

This is a wonderful post and a great example of how this forum is used to share insightful information or perspective, really enjoyed it.

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5 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Jose is not near the top of the league in barrel%. He’s in the upper half though.

Where Abreu (and Grandal) stand out is the difference statistics - subtracting their expected numbers based on their contact profile from their actual numbers.

For wOBA - xwOBA, Abreu is 9th and Grandal is 15th. For slug - xSlug, Abreu is 3rd and Grandal is top 10.

Now hypothetically the expected numbers being that much better than the observed numbers would signal guys who had been unlucky and whose performance could swing the other way.

However, this year we have a complicating factor, the ball. All of the expected statistics I checked require a calibration- statcast measures launch angle, exit velocity, etc, but those numbers need a conversion to torn into expected stats, and that conversion will be based on what has happened in previous years. If the ball changes, then that calibration will be biased.

It is possible to probable that some players will have batted ball profiles that make them extra vulnerable to the new ball. Could that be Abreu and Grandal? Possible, do not have enough data to speculate further.

This is exactly what I was thinking, you put it into words better than I could. Thanks Balta. 

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12 hours ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Of course it will never happen but TA should not be leading off vs RHP.

Yes the player with the highest avg against RHP righty or lefty bat should stop hitting leadoff.

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16 hours ago, Texsox said:

Let's trade em all for prospects. I love those fifteen game under .500 decades while dreaming of being competitive.

Or keep 'em all so you can watch them be a .500 team!

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I'm ready for the Sox to move on from Abreu after this season. It's Vaughn's time and Vaughn can't play an adequate outfield. He needs to play first base.

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I still think Jose will hit. The weather has mostly been atrocious and he is a slow starter. But I'm a little concerned about his 1b defense. He just doesn't seem as adroit as in years past. I have no data to back that up...just my eye test. Perhaps I'm wrong.

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From Dick Allen to Frank to Paulie to Jose we breed 1st basemans like Green Bay breeds QB's

Hope his successor will be as good as the aforementioned 

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7 hours ago, Spicy gar said:

Yes the player with the highest avg against RHP righty or lefty bat should stop hitting leadoff.

That's an absolutely perfect take if this is the 1970s and everybody still thinks AVG is the most important thing.

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Until his statcast page starts showing less red, I’ll assume he’ll pick it up at some point. Problem is, we need him now.

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Posted (edited)

Delete. Wrong thread. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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Thanks Ron. We needed this. 

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Dallas vs the Yankmees

Noooooooooooooooooooo

Batting practice starts at 6:10 PM

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1 hour ago, buckweaver said:

I still think Jose will hit. The weather has mostly been atrocious and he is a slow starter. But I'm a little concerned about his 1b defense. He just doesn't seem as adroit as in years past. I have no data to back that up...just my eye test. Perhaps I'm wrong.

Fwiw, my eyes agree with yours, but the data doesn’t support this. I think of games like Thursday- the winning runs scored on a play where Abreu did a poor stretch and then turned to the ump without noticing that Torres was still running. In previous years people kept saying he had little range but made up for it by helping get badly thrown balls.

This year his UZR and OAA are comparable to last year, the algorithms still think he’s been average. Sure doesn’t fit my eyes either. Maybe the algorithms don’t handle picking the ball well, or maybe guys in the infield are giving him vastly more bad throws so he’s doing the best he can with what they’re giving him? I dunno.

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Needs to get his head out of his ass.

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How fast do these Jose sucks threads usually take to work?  Is there an extra strength version we can use??

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Posted (edited)

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jose-abreu-547989?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Check out this page. He will get his, don't you worry Sox fans. 

 

I know it hasn't been an ideal start across the board for the Sox, but offense is not this team's problem, even if 2b is a hole. Bullpen is not an issue. 

SP depth is a problem and will continue to be a problem as they try and keep Kopech fresh for playoff run (if needed). I think the thought process was a) let's be cheap and b) we have a 4 man rotation that can win it all in Cease/Gio/Kopech/Lynn in the playoffs. Just gonna need a lot of luck to have that come true. 

 

Edited by he gone.

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53 minutes ago, he gone. said:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jose-abreu-547989?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Check out this page. He will get his, don't you worry Sox fans. 

 

I know it hasn't been an ideal start across the board for the Sox, but offense is not this team's problem, even if 2b is a hole. Bullpen is not an issue. 

SP depth is a problem and will continue to be a problem as they try and keep Kopech fresh for playoff run (if needed). I think the thought process was a) let's be cheap and b) we have a 4 man rotation that can win it all in Cease/Gio/Kopech/Lynn in the playoffs. Just gonna need a lot of luck to have that come true. 

 

The Sox’s expensive bullpen has a 4.05 ERA good for 21st in the league. The starters’ ERA is at least 15th. Both have been a problem. 

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