TA7 Extension...how much?

[caulfield12]

13 minutes ago, The Kids Can Play said:

Anderson might not be as good defensively as Lindor is, but Lindor couldn't sniff TA's jock strap when it comes to offense. When Lindor signed his 10 year 341 million contract in 2021, he was not one of the best shortstops as far as offense. 

Since 2019:

Lindor        '19  .284
                    '20  .258
                    '21  .230
                    '22  .239

Anderson  '19  .335
                    '20  .322
                    '21  .309
                    '22  .359

Keep in mind, that nobody has discussed yet, which is the fact TA stays in amazing shape. At 32 yrs old, I think he will still be hitting great! The Sox will not let TA walk if he is still producing like he is now and still in great physical shape.

In fact, he has been THE best hitter (cumulatively from 2019-2022) over the last three plus seasons in the entire AL.

But I’m sure just using BA will get you criticized as the fWAR/bWAR, fielding metrics and terribly low walk rates/hitting with RISP critics will descend with their own numbers.  Well, maybe not fWAR…since somebody said he was on pace for a historic 8 fWAR season when the entire roster of position players is at just 2.4 overall…or less than 0.5 for the whole lineup subtracting TA.

There’s likely no team in baseball as reliant on two players in TA and Robert right now.

Edited May 23, 2022 by caulfield12

[Bob Sacamano]

Does this really need to be a topic for discussion right now? While we have him for next year and 2024?

Edited May 23, 2022 by Bob Sacamano

[The Kids Can Play]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

In fact, he has been THE best hitter (cumulatively from 2019-2022) over the last three plus seasons in the entire AL.

But I’m sure just using BA will get you criticized as the fWAR/bWAR, fielding metrics and terribly low walk rates/hitting with RISP critics will descend with their own numbers.  Well, maybe not fWAR…since somebody said he was on pace for a historic 8 fWAR season when the entire roster of position players is at just 2.4 overall…or less than 0.5 for the whole lineup subtracting TA.

There’s likely no team in baseball as reliant on two players in TA and Robert right now.

That might be true as far as the Sox heavily relying on TA and Robert for now, but that should hopefully change in the future. However my point was not about that. I was just saying Anderson is better than Lindor and has been for the last four years. 

[hogan873]

3 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Does this really need to be a topic for discussion right now? While we have him for next year and 2024?

Maybe.  I don't doubt the Sox are looking at options now, mulling offers that would keep TA for another 3-4 years beyond 2024.  I don't necessarily see it happening, but signing him to a 6/$170 deal that includes 2023 and 2024 takes pressure off both the Sox and him.  If there's no deal by the time the 2024 season starts, there's going to be speculation that he leaves for free agency at the end of that season.  That wouldn't be ideal, especially if TA keeps hitting the way he does.  He is, and most likely will be, one of the best hitters in baseball and a guy that is the face of the team.

[he gone.]

No reason to even approach any of this until his contract is up. When the time comes you assess against current backdrop + current outlook. Doing anything ahead of time is foolish. 

i.e. look at how the Astros handled their situation. Hell, use them for all examples. With the talent and run room of these contracts the Sox should be rebooting their minors to fill in. This "our window is the next 2-4 years" stuff is nonsense. A window shouldn't be the the end goal. The goal should be to have rolling success and younger controllable guys that can supplement current guys and then making tough decisions about signing extensions or replacing internally for cheaper. 

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Not sure why the Sox would be worried about this yet.  They have two incredibly cheap years left.  Unless TA is willing to tear up those last two years to get a little bit more money, to extend for another 2-3 years at below market value to make up from the extra cash in 23/24 I don't see how a deal makes sense yet.

This right here really makes the most sense to me.  He's still signed for 2+ years, there's no need to engage in extension talk unless he knows he wants to stay and is willing to trade some $$ to lock in those years.  This is not a bridge that needs to be crossed until we get there.

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, he gone. said:

No reason to even approach any of this until his contract is up. When the time comes you assess against current backdrop + current outlook. Doing anything ahead of time is foolish. 

i.e. look at how the Astros handled their situation. Hell, use them for all examples. With the talent and run room of these contracts the Sox should be rebooting their minors to fill in. This "our window is the next 2-4 years" stuff is nonsense. A window shouldn't be the the end goal. The goal should be to have rolling success and younger controllable guys that can supplement current guys and then making tough decisions about signing extensions or replacing internally for cheaper. 

Far too late for that.  The die is already cast with our minors, maxed out payroll and inability to generate higher draft picks.

And especially the increasingly large number of veteran contracts across this roster that need to produce over the 2022 and 2023 seasons. 

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

Maybe.  I don't doubt the Sox are looking at options now, mulling offers that would keep TA for another 3-4 years beyond 2024.  I don't necessarily see it happening, but signing him to a 6/$170 deal that includes 2023 and 2024 takes pressure off both the Sox and him.  If there's no deal by the time the 2024 season starts, there's going to be speculation that he leaves for free agency at the end of that season.  That wouldn't be ideal, especially if TA keeps hitting the way he does.  He is, and most likely will be, one of the best hitters in baseball and a guy that is the face of the team.

And the focus is quickly and increasingly going to turn to Anderson as soon as Giolito’s future is resolved, one way or the other.

[mqr]

I love TA I hope he’s here for a long time. 
 

But I get the idea he’s the type of player whose game falls off a cliff as they age. Let’s let him get to 32 before we have this convo. 

[southsider2k5]

22 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

This right here really makes the most sense to me.  He's still signed for 2+ years, there's no need to engage in extension talk unless he knows he wants to stay and is willing to trade some $$ to lock in those years.  This is not a bridge that needs to be crossed until we get there.

The thing is JR has never torn up a contract.  Not for MJ, not for Scottie, and not for Frank.  It makes sense, but I don't see it happening for TA either.

[caulfield12]

22 minutes ago, mqr said:

I love TA I hope he’s here for a long time. 
 

But I get the idea he’s the type of player whose game falls off a cliff as they age. Let’s let him get to 32 before we have this convo. 

Well, technically he would be 31 at the beginning of the 2025 season, after his two option years are finished, turning 32 that following June.

[SoCalChiSox]

I highly doubt they will extend him given aging curves at the end of the deal and Montgomery coming up. If it looks like Montgomery can't stick at SS then maybe, although even that would prolly be a moderate deal since they currently have alot of leverage.

[FoxForce2]

It may be early to be getting into this now, but this time next year will be a different story. It's a safe bet that both sides have at least spitballed on this for awhile.

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I highly doubt they will extend him given aging curves at the end of the deal and Montgomery coming up. If it looks like Montgomery can't stick at SS then maybe, although even that would prolly be a moderate deal since they currently have alot of leverage.

Let’s at least see Montgomery in High A before you start talking about having ANY type of leverage over Anderson.

Odds are that Montgomery just as likely ends up at 3B or possibly second when all is said and done.  He’s going to have to be Corey Seager Lite to unseat Timmy at age 31.

[reiks12]

I want TA to retire a White Sox and to watch him get 2500 hits. 3000 seems unlikely but i think hes got a shot at 2500. At this pace he will have 1000 hits after this season.

[he gone.]

35 minutes ago, FoxForce2 said:

It may be early to be getting into this now, but this time next year will be a different story. It's a safe bet that both sides have at least spitballed on this for awhile.

ask scottie pippen

[FoxForce2]

9 minutes ago, he gone. said:

ask scottie pippen

I've never kept up with the ins and outs of the NBA. General interest - that's about it.

[southsider2k5]

20 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

I want TA to retire a White Sox and to watch him get 2500 hits. 3000 seems unlikely but i think hes got a shot at 2500. At this pace he will have 1000 hits after this season.

I would love to see TA become a true White Sox legend, retired number and all, but we have a while before we worry about that next deal.

[Chick Mercedes]

10 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

We still have him under  control for 2.75 seasons.  I don't think we need to worry about the extension quite yet.  He'll be 32 in his first FA season....I'd love to keep him around, but he'll be at an age where you cannot really back up the truck.  

I say at least let 22 and 23 play out and see where we stand then. No reason to extend him right now unless he's willing to take (another) team friendly deal.  Doubtful IMO. 

Thank you. 

[oldsox]

Barring injury, Tim's next 2 seasons will play out with him being underpaid.  He is in his prime years.  He hits.  He is guaranteed about $27 Large for 2023-24.  I would offer him a meaningful two year extension now.  If he hits like this for next two years, someone will break the bank for him, and Sox are left with a draft pick.

[T R U]

1 hour ago, oldsox said:

Barring injury, Tim's next 2 seasons will play out with him being underpaid.  He is in his prime years.  He hits.  He is guaranteed about $27 Large for 2023-24.  I would offer him a meaningful two year extension now.  If he hits like this for next two years, someone will break the bank for him, and Sox are left with a draft pick.

If he keeps it up you can kiss his ass goodbye unless for some reason he just takes some sweetheart deal to stay here OR we have different ownership by the time this happens.

Someone will give him a monster contract in FA

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, oldsox said:

Barring injury, Tim's next 2 seasons will play out with him being underpaid.  He is in his prime years.  He hits.  He is guaranteed about $27 Large for 2023-24.  I would offer him a meaningful two year extension now.  If he hits like this for next two years, someone will break the bank for him, and Sox are left with a draft pick.

With the Lindor deal setting the SS bar at $34 million a year, you have to imagine it would take something close to that to get TA to sign for only two years, especially if you aren't going to tear up his last two cheap years.  Otherwise why wouldn't he wait and get the whole $200ish million that someone will pay him?

[oldsox]

38 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

With the Lindor deal setting the SS bar at $34 million a year, you have to imagine it would take something close to that to get TA to sign for only two years, especially if you aren't going to tear up his last two cheap years.  Otherwise why wouldn't he wait and get the whole $200ish million that someone will pay him?

I thought of that exact line of reasoning before I posted, but Tim does not have quite the same negotiating leverage that Lindor had.  So I'm thinking $90 million over next 4 years (2023-2026).  He then gets a major bump 2023-2024 (27 mm vs 45 mm).

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, oldsox said:

I thought of that exact line of reasoning before I posted, but Tim does not have quite the same negotiating leverage that Lindor had.  So I'm thinking $90 million over next 4 years (2023-2026).  He then gets a major bump 2023-2024 (27 mm vs 45 mm).

I think to get his attention for a deal that short, you have to put market rate on the table.  You get a discount if you go long term.  $60m at least for those two years.  Realistically you probably need $65 to $70.

[chitownsportsfan]

Offer him 5/180 this offseason see if he bites, that's a fair deal imo. He can still get one more big contract and the Sox extend him out through what should be good competitive years for him and the club.