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Cerbaho-WG

Ozzieball!!!

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Because, as Jason put it, I have too much time on my hands, I'm going to see if Ozzieball really works. "How", might you ask? Here comes the fun:

 

I will go through the first 81 games of the season and compare the "basics" of Ozzieball which include:

 

Bunting men over from 1st to 2nd

Bunting men over from 2nd to 3rd

Stealing bases

 

I'm going to go over every situation in which the first two categories happened (subtracting bunts to avoid double-tallying), and tackle the golden 75% rule given to us by Moneyball for stealing bases.

 

In summation, I'm basically going to see what the percentages are for every situation:

 

Chance of scoring....

Man on 1st w/ 0 outs

With 1 out

With 2 outs

 

Man on 2nd w/ 0 outs

With 1 out

With 2 outs

 

Man on 3rd w/ 0 outs

With 1 out

With 2 outs

 

And then work math to my advantage :)

--

If any of you are interested, and I hope you are, I'll be starting this project up after I finish with my latest FutureSox article and should take me a week or so to tally every situation and go from there.

 

While this won't say "Ozzieball blows!" or "Ozzieball is great!", I'm hoping it gives everyone an understanding on the "Billy Beane" perspective and how it applies.

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Because, as Jason put it, I have too much time on my hands, I'm going to see if Ozzieball really works. "How", might you ask? Here comes the fun:

 

I will go through the first 81 games of the season and compare the "basics" of Ozzieball which include:

 

Bunting men over from 1st to 2nd

Bunting men over from 2nd to 3rd

Stealing bases

 

I'm going to go over every situation in which the first two categories happened (subtracting bunts to avoid double-tallying), and tackle the golden 75% rule given to us by Moneyball for stealing bases.

 

In summation, I'm basically going to see what the percentages are for every situation:

 

Chance of scoring....

Man on 1st w/ 0 outs

With 1 out

With 2 outs

 

Man on 2nd w/ 0 outs

With 1 out

With 2 outs

 

Man on 3rd w/ 0 outs

With 1 out

With 2 outs

 

And then work math to my advantage :)

--

If any of you are interested, and I hope you are, I'll be starting this project up after I finish with my latest FutureSox article and should take me a week or so to tally every situation and go from there.

 

While this won't say "Ozzieball blows!" or "Ozzieball is great!", I'm hoping it gives everyone an understanding on the "Billy Beane" perspective and how it applies.

Very cool cerb, that should be interesting to read. Have fun doing that, seems like it would be a lot of work though, can't wait for you to get that up. :) :headbang

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I remember some mention that a runner on first with no outs scores 49% of the time. A runner on second with one out scores 51% of the time. Does the bunt to move over a runner from first to second with no outs really help?

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I'm so listening!! :headbang

 

BTW, didn't Cheat give stats about this (ozzieball) a while ago?

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Because, as Jason put it, I have too much time on my hands, I'm going to see if Ozzieball really works. "How", might you ask? Here comes the fun:

 

I will go through the first 81 games of the season and compare the "basics" of Ozzieball which include:

 

Bunting men over from 1st to 2nd

Bunting men over from 2nd to 3rd

Stealing bases

 

I'm going to go over every situation in which the first two categories happened (subtracting bunts to avoid double-tallying), and tackle the golden 75% rule given to us by Moneyball for stealing bases.

 

In summation, I'm basically going to see what the percentages are for every situation:

 

Chance of scoring....

Man on 1st w/ 0 outs

With 1 out

With 2 outs

 

Man on 2nd w/ 0 outs

With 1 out

With 2 outs

 

Man on 3rd w/ 0 outs

With 1 out

With 2 outs

 

And then work math to my advantage :)

--

If any of you are interested, and I hope you are, I'll be starting this project up after I finish with my latest FutureSox article and should take me a week or so to tally every situation and go from there.

 

While this won't say "Ozzieball blows!" or "Ozzieball is great!", I'm hoping it gives everyone an understanding on the "Billy Beane" perspective and how it applies.

Nice Post

 

But you can't play Ozzie ball with a team not constructed for Ozzie BALL

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This begs an interesting point.

Are we the slowest team in baseball?

Discuss with Willie in the lineup and without.

Of late he's not on base anyway.

But are we the worst plodders of any team?

That was a big play the other night when we Paulie

got gunned down at the plate on a hit to rf.

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Because, as Jason put it, I have too much time on my hands, I'm going to see if Ozzieball really works. "How", might you ask? Here comes the fun:

 

I will go through the first 81 games of the season and compare the "basics" of Ozzieball which include:

 

Bunting men over from 1st to 2nd

Bunting men over from 2nd to 3rd

Stealing bases

 

I'm going to go over every situation in which the first two categories happened (subtracting bunts to avoid double-tallying), and tackle the golden 75% rule given to us by Moneyball for stealing bases.

 

In summation, I'm basically going to see what the percentages are for every situation:

 

Chance of scoring....

Man on 1st w/ 0 outs

With 1 out

With 2 outs

 

Man on 2nd w/ 0 outs

With 1 out

With 2 outs

 

Man on 3rd w/ 0 outs

With 1 out

With 2 outs

 

And then work math to my advantage :)

--

If any of you are interested, and I hope you are, I'll be starting this project up after I finish with my latest FutureSox article and should take me a week or so to tally every situation and go from there.

 

While this won't say "Ozzieball blows!" or "Ozzieball is great!", I'm hoping it gives everyone an understanding on the "Billy Beane" perspective and how it applies.

Damn. You're a serious baseball geek. Just kidding. I'll be lookin forward to checkin that out. I got a feeling it's not gonna be too good. Like somebody said, Hard to play Ozzie ball with a team that's not built for Ozzieball. Although, we were doing a pretty good job of it when Harris/Uribe were swingin hot bats.

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I remember some mention that a runner on first with no outs scores 49% of the time.  A runner on second with one out scores 51% of the time.  Does the bunt to move over a runner from first to second with no outs really help?

By the numbers no but imo it helps immensely.

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Nice Post

 

But you can't play Ozzie ball with a team not constructed for Ozzie BALL

exactly. when manuel came on board there was a ton of hubbub about him bringing a "national league" style of baseball to chicago. to me a "national league" style equals what we'd refer to as "ozzieball" although some would just call it "good baseball."

 

i don't think manuel's approach was let's hit a bunch of home runs, yet by the time he got canned he took heat for the team not being able to bunt guys over or do the "little things."

 

now ozzie's the manager and he's promoting the same kind of philosophy. yet the sox can't still do the "little things."

 

i'm of the belief that by the time players get to the bigs, they are somewhat set in the types of players they are going to be. if a guy didn't learn how to bunt or be baseball literate through little league, high school, college and the minors, i seriously doubt they'll gain that skill because a major league manager wants them to.

 

if the sox want to play "ozzieball" they will need to change the roster.

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Why are you using 75%? That's a debatable value to begin with. Secondly, it is a rough number to evaluate the average of all situations. The true value changes from pitch to pitch throughout the game. Tie game bottom of ninth, one out, the value would be closer to 40%.

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I heard a great quote on Saturday from an interview on the Score with Hawk, "A manager isn't in full control of his team unless he can get every single man in his line-up to bunt."

 

I'm sure if he asked nicely he could get them all to bunt, but seriously, if Alomar, Konerko, or Thomas bunt, there's a serious double play liability.

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While this won't say "Ozzieball blows!" or "Ozzieball is great!", I'm hoping it gives everyone an understanding on the "Billy Beane" perspective and how it applies.

Sounds great.

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Why are you using 75%? That's a debatable value to begin with. Secondly, it is a rough number to evaluate the average of all situations.  The true value changes from pitch to pitch throughout the game. Tie game bottom of ninth, one out, the value would be closer to 40%.

I'm not using 75%, I'm tackling that. I've got a formula to figure that out, thankfully.

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Because, as Jason put it, I have too much time on my hands

when Jason says that... ;) :lol:

 

 

good luck with the project! :headbang

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I'm not using 75%, I'm tackling that. I've got a formula to figure that out, thankfully.

Oh, i see. cool. good luck.

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Inge gunned down 3 of our runners on Sunday.

Welcome To The Boards!!! :cheers :cheers :drink

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cerb,

 

I can save you the time and effort and advise ghat Ozzieball is crap. It's either that or Hawk H is full of crap, one or the other.

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