New Hints at the '05 Sox

[Hatchetman]

if you're going to trade for something good you have to give up something.

 

elrockin, what's your solution?

[beck72]

I would even be reluctant to let Valentin go.

Many posters have said they would like to start fresh. While we fans may be "pipedreaming", I'm gooing by the comments made by KW and Ozzie about what next years team should look like. Changes are coming whether you or I like them. I for one like what I'm hearing.

 

But by no means should Jose be back. He's not hitting his weight, and makes Sammy sosa look like a contact hitter by comparison.

[elrockinMT]

if you're going to trade for something good you have to give up something.

 

elrockin, what's your solution?

You don't give up a strength in one area to improve youurself in another because you just open up a hole again. As I said Gload is not the option over Konerko. I think Lee is a stable and very strong option in LF. I think Maggs will be gone and we can use the $14M to look at free agents to fill the starting pitching hole we have. Borcgard gets the opportunity to start in RF with Timo Perez as the back up. I like Valentin and am not sure Valdez or Uribe is the answer at SS, but realsitaically Jose is probably gone and we have another $5M to play with to go after a stud relief pitcher. Or maybe Jose signs for less and comes back in '05 to show this year was a fluke. A .250 plus hititng Jose V hitting 25-30 HR's and driving in 75 plus runs is a solid offensive SS. I also think Jose is not the defensive liability some think he is. Joe Crede may or may not be the 3B answer, but he has too much talent to just throw away. We could use some of our present relief corp as trade bait including the likes of Kelly Wunsch and Jon Adkins and Cliff Politte. Diaz may be a good bullpen long relief man.

[elrockinMT]

Good points. A few questions for you though.

*What do you see as the reason for the Sox failing to make the playoffs four the 4th yr in a row?

 

*Who exactly do you want to see given more chances?

 

*Do you see any problems with the Sox offense, and what changes would you make?

I think a lot of the problem the last few yeasr has been a failure of the pitching staff to perform and specifically the stud relief pitcher and 5th starter. We have also seen the pitching we acquired fail to step up. Colon was good for us, but manageemnt wouldn't spend money and maybe they were right considering the amount requested. This year the injury buy to Frank and Maggs was the nail in the coffin and no closer to speak of.

 

I think Crede and Valentin need to be given another oportunity and we need to exit Robbie and probably Carl Everett. Maybe Sandy should be released too. Borchard should get the start in RF.

[jackie hayes]

I think Crede and Valentin need to be given another oportunity and we need to exit Robbie and probably Carl Everett. Maybe Sandy should be released too. Borchard should get the start in RF.

Well, I still don't agree w/ you on specifics, esp Borchard. Even in the minors, he didn't show any ability to improve, to strike out less as he developed -- unlike Olivo and Gload, eg. It's just too bad he didn't exeunt long ago, instead of Reed, say.

[farmteam]

In that Florida deal that was mentioned, it would really depend who the prospect is, for me. If it's one of our top guys, like Anderson, BMAC, Sweeney, or Fields, then no. But if it's more of a mid-level prospect, then maybe-probably.

[YASNY]

I know I don't want to see next year come with the same core players in the lineup. It hasn't worked for 4 years. We are too heavily right handed, too slow, not enough contact hitters, not solid enough on defense. Four years is enough. They've proved to me that this team can't win unless everything just breaks right for them.

[beck72]

I think Crede and Valentin need to be given another oportunity and we need to exit Robbie and probably Carl Everett. Maybe Sandy should be released too. Borchard should get the start in RF.

Those 3 starters will likely give the Sox 3 guys with a sub .300 OBP. Add in Uribe and Ben Davis as starters who would be a little over .300 OBP, and the sox would be a very weak offensive team in '05 as well. Too few contact hitters who can get on base, too many streaky power hitters [like the last 4, 5 years]. I think Crede will have a decent future, and rebound. But he still is streaky, K's a lot and doesn't get on base much. The sox need more from their starters at 3B, C, SS, 2B and RF in order to win in '05.

 

While the sox could use another top SP [which they likely will get this offseason, and maybe a closer to push Shingo back into set up] the long stretch where the Sox went from 1st place to 3rd, the pitching was very solid. It was the offense that tanked, just like in years past. That has to change first and foremost. And keeping the same guys around hpoing they'll change isn't a plan. It's a recipe for disaster.

 

Again, I'm not pushing an agenda. I'm just going by what the sox decision makers have been saying. And that is change is coming.

[Guest JimH]

I can't possibly see how they can give Jose Valentin another chance. Enough is enough, they waited a year too long to part ways with Jose.

 

What did Guillen say, they have a left fielder, a center fielder, a first baseman ... what else was it?

 

They have a lot of work to do this offseason.

[Rowand44]

I can't possibly see how they can give Jose Valentin another chance.  Enough is enough, they waited a year too long to part ways with Jose.

 

What did Guillen say, they have a left fielder, a center fielder, a first baseman ... what else was it?

 

They have a lot of work to do this offseason.

A dh, a lf, a cf and either a 2b or ss with Juan.

[CanOfCorn]

I know I don't want to see next year come with the same core players in the lineup.  It hasn't worked for 4 years.  We are too heavily right handed, too slow, not enough contact hitters, not solid enough on defense.  Four years is enough.  They've proved to me that this team can't win unless everything just breaks right for them.

Plus, our right handed hitters can't hit lefties. That's supposed to be the one matchup that right handed hitters can take advantage of and our team, for years, has had rotten records against lefty pitchers...and those just called up. Drives me nuts. :banghead

[babybearhater]

I would ask the fans that post here to step back and consider the overall impacct to the team if certain trades are made. I can't understand the clamor to trade someone like Paul Konerko and replace him with Ross Gload. Paulie is hitting .280 plus with 39 homers and over 100 RBI's. Gload is a utility player, who does very well in filling that role. Trade Carlos Lee, who is hitting .300 with 26 plus homers and 90 RBI's and who does a real good job in the OF. Trade Crede, who has a lot of talent, but replace him with who? Uribe is a super sub, who perfomrs even better than Graffanino did in that role. Valdez is a possible I.F. reserve. We need pitching folks #1. We need an ace closer more than anything in my book and a good starter. I would even be reluctant to let Valentin go. We have given up too much in the last 2 years in young talent going after Everett and Robbie Alomar, not once but twice. I see Jon Rauch over in Montreal is now 2-0 and has thrown two consecutive 3 inning long relief stints giving up zero runs. Keith Foulke saved game #30 with Boston. We could have still had Keith if we had been willing to pay a little money. We haven't had a solid relief ace since he was traded. Folks, you don't trade away all-star caliber players and have nothing and no one to replace them with. You need someone who can play just as good if not better. Slow down on the "let's get rid of our players bandwagon." There isn't just one player that's responsible for the Sox decline. I even could point a finger at Ozzie Guillen and say fire him, but lets give him and the others a chance.

I will go out there and say I disagree with your post. First off im my opinion, this line up has been built for wowing the basic fan with exactly what you used as an argument, home runs. We have consistently been in the top tier for homeruns hit, but have not reached the playoffs consecutive years in a row. I understand the every time Paulie hits a solo shot, and the fireworks go off, alot of fans are in awe of his worth as a player. Consider this.... why has Paulie hit so many solo shots, this is in part to his lack of being able to situationally hit. When there are runners on base, he is more prone to hitting into a DP than scoring the runners with a single. As well he has 46 k's with runners on, and 28 with runners in scoring position with about half the at- bats. Also he has about half as many homers with runners on base in roughly the same amount of at- bats. As much as I love paulie, he does not fit into Ozzie's system as being a contact hitter with speed. I believe the reason alot of people are backing Gload as the everyday 1B is because his stats with runners on are significantly better than with the bases empty. Hitting over 322 with 32 Rbi's and only 15 k's. Im not saying he is a superstar of any means, but at this point Paulie might be more valuable to the club as trade bait for a decent lead-off man, a shortstop, or a top of the rotation pitcher. And as for whether or not we should keep valentin, come on, I shouldnt even have to touch on that one.

[beck72]

What did Guillen say, they have a left fielder, a center fielder, a first baseman ... what else was it?

Guillen was only quoted in the Southtown saying he had a CFer and a LFer. The Tribune writer surmised that new guys could be at possibly 5 of 9 spots. Makes sense with Frank at DH and Uribe [either at 2B--you'd love that, with no Willie--or SS] holding down the other two spots. That Ozzie would come out and say he's got Lee and Aaron for next yr is a very strong statement, and prob. means PK is the one going elsewhere.

[3E8]

We can sacrifice some offense in 2005 if it means better pitching and defense. Pitching wins ballgames.

 

2004 Opening Day Starting Rotation

 

Mark Buehrle

Esteban Loaiza

Jon Garland

Scott Schoenwies

Danny Wright

 

Prospective 2005 Opening Day Starting Rotation

 

Freddy Garcia

Mark Buehrle

Odalis Perez (?)

Jose Contreras

Jon Garland

[beck72]

I will go out there and say I disagree with your post.  First off im my opinion, this line up has been built for wowing the basic fan with exactly what you used as an argument, home runs.  We have consistently been in the top tier for homeruns hit, but have not reached the playoffs consecutive years in a row.  I understand the every time Paulie hits a solo shot, and the fireworks go off, alot of fans are in awe of his worth as a player.  Consider this.... why has Paulie hit so many solo shots, this is in part to his lack of being able to situationally hit.  When there are runners on base, he is more prone to hitting into a DP than scoring the runners with a single.  As well he has 46 k's with runners on, and 28 with runners in scoring position with about half the at- bats. Also he has about half as many homers with runners on base in roughly the same amount of at- bats.  As much as I love paulie, he does not fit into Ozzie's system as being a contact hitter with speed.    I believe the reason alot of people are backing Gload as the everyday 1B is because his stats with runners on are significantly better than with the bases empty. Hitting over 322 with 32 Rbi's  and only 15 k's.  Im not saying he is a superstar of any means, but at this point Paulie might be more valuable to the club as trade bait for a decent lead-off man, a shortstop, or a top of the rotation pitcher.  And as for whether or not we should keep valentin, come on, I shouldnt even have to touch on that one.

I could go either way about trading Lee or PK. I think Lee's a slugger and PK is more of a professional hitter. Both PK and Lee have hit well this yr w/ RISP. I think Lee would have great trade value and would deal him if overwhelmed in a Richie Sexton type deal.

 

But looking at the stats, PK's K's are up, so are his GIDP [like 21+]. His home vs away splits are very bad [hitting .300 + at home with a .500 SLG and only .240 with a SLG in the .300's on the road]. Lee has only hit into 9 DP's this yr. Lee has continued to improve his BA, and is more versatile with his speed. He also has hit RHP and LHP equally well. And his defense has continued to improve as well.

[beck72]

One thing to consider in this whole trade Lee or PK deal, is the health of Frank for '05. Which player would be a better DH if Frank missed a lot of time? [i know Everett may be around but still]

 

PK has hated being DH, based on his past comments. PK thinks too much from AB to AB and would sit and stew about bad AB's. I could see Lee being alright in that role. He's not the brightest bulb on the panel and could sit and hit.

[beck72]

We can sacrifice some offense in 2005 if it means better pitching and defense.  Pitching wins ballgames.

Some people think that losing HR hitters means having a weaker offense. But with the HR hitters, also means going through long inconsistent stretches where the guys are easy outs [just look at Jose and crede as prime examples of this].

 

With more consistent hitters, guys who make better contact, guys who can bunt, hit to the opposite field and put the ball in play, the long stretches of "slumps" are lessened. These are more line drive hitters, where our HR guys are more prone to pop up and K.

 

But you are right. With a stronger pitching staff, [add in another top reliever to go with a SP-- I like Odalis Perez] the sox don't need to win games 9-8. The Sox need to be able to win the 3-2 and 4-3 games.

[3E8]

Some people think that losing HR hitters means having a weaker offense. But with the HR hitters, also means going through long inconsistent stretches where the guys are easy outs [just look at Jose and crede as prime examples of this].

 

With more consistent hitters, guys who make better contact, guys who can bunt, hit to the opposite field and put the ball in play, the long stretches of "slumps" are lessened. These are more line drive hitters, where our HR guys are more prone to pop up and K.

 

But you are right. With a stronger pitching staff, [add in another top reliever to go with a SP-- I like Odalis Perez] the sox don't need to win games 9-8. The Sox need to be able to win the 3-2 and 4-3 games.

If we do sign that big free agent pitcher in the offseason, whomever it may be, you must give KW some credit. The 2005 staff would be absolutely leaps and bounds ahead of what we threw out to start 2004.

[jackie hayes]

I will go out there and say I disagree with your post.  First off im my opinion, this line up has been built for wowing the basic fan with exactly what you used as an argument, home runs.  We have consistently been in the top tier for homeruns hit, but have not reached the playoffs consecutive years in a row.  I understand the every time Paulie hits a solo shot, and the fireworks go off, alot of fans are in awe of his worth as a player.  Consider this.... why has Paulie hit so many solo shots, this is in part to his lack of being able to situationally hit.  When there are runners on base, he is more prone to hitting into a DP than scoring the runners with a single.  As well he has 46 k's with runners on, and 28 with runners in scoring position with about half the at- bats. Also he has about half as many homers with runners on base in roughly the same amount of at- bats.  As much as I love paulie, he does not fit into Ozzie's system as being a contact hitter with speed.    I believe the reason alot of people are backing Gload as the everyday 1B is because his stats with runners on are significantly better than with the bases empty. Hitting over 322 with 32 Rbi's  and only 15 k's.  Im not saying he is a superstar of any means, but at this point Paulie might be more valuable to the club as trade bait for a decent lead-off man, a shortstop, or a top of the rotation pitcher.  And as for whether or not we should keep valentin, come on, I shouldnt even have to touch on that one.

This is an example of how stats can be used the wrong way. In terms of hr and k/ab with runners on or with risp, you're talking about a difference of a handful of abs (eg, there is only a 3 hr difference between the ratios being equal). Whenever you use statistics, you have to keep in mind the fact that there is some randomness, and small differences are natural, not conclusive. (Plus, 16 is not half of 23, and "roughly the same amount of at- bats" should not mean a difference of 60, or 11% of PK's total abs.) Not to mention, there is no adjustment made here for the fact that PK will tend to face different pitchers (closers and more rhp) with risp. At the same time, the judgement of Gload rests on fewer than 100 abs. And he strikes out and gidp more often than PK with risp, based on this year's stats (fewer than 50 abs for Gload). In fact, his overall strikeout rate is only a blip lower than PK's, and he walks less often.

 

The point is not that PK is great, and Gload is terrible. The point is that we know PK is a very good player, and we know very little about Gload. Moreover, what little we have seen from Gload isn't missing some of the same flaws PK has. You're still looking at a big step down and a big risk, in performance as well as overall numbers.

 

Some people don't want PK b/c he's slow, or b/c they believe the return would be better. While I don't agree, it's all speculative and so it seems fair. On the other hand, the case that Paulie's a bad clutch hitter is very weak coming from stats.

[babybearhater]

This is an example of how stats can be used the wrong way.  In terms of hr and k/ab with runners on or with risp, you're talking about a difference of a handful of abs (eg, there is only a 3 hr difference between the ratios being equal).  Whenever you use statistics, you have to keep in mind the fact that there is some randomness, and small differences are natural, not conclusive.  (Plus, 16 is not half of 23, and "roughly the same amount of at- bats" should not mean a difference of 60, or 11% of PK's total abs.)  Not to mention, there is no adjustment made here for the fact that PK will tend to face different pitchers (closers and more rhp) with risp.  At the same time, the judgement of Gload rests on fewer than 100 abs.  And he strikes out and gidp more often than PK with risp, based on this year's stats (fewer than 50 abs for Gload).  In fact, his overall strikeout rate is only a blip lower than PK's, and he walks less often.

 

The point is not that PK is great, and Gload is terrible.  The point is that we know PK is a very good player, and we know very little about Gload.  Moreover, what little we have seen from Gload isn't missing some of the same flaws PK has.  You're still looking at a big step down and a big risk, in performance as well as overall numbers.

 

Some people don't want PK b/c he's slow, or b/c they believe the return would be better.  While I don't agree, it's all speculative and so it seems fair.  On the other hand, the case that Paulie's a bad clutch hitter is very weak coming from stats.

Splitting hairs and judgement calls are always a good way to argue yourself into nothing. If we are going to say that Paulie has a disadvantage for playing more and "seeing different pitchers" then we should evaluate if thats true. Is it harder to only bat once a game, or to see the pitcher repeatedly, and finally get the solo homerun that delights the crowd. It was a nice argument, but the word roughly, means just that, its not exact. I was using stats to show that PK is not a clutch hitter, because he isnt. Why would he have 35 homers and not break the 100 RBI border??? His K's and GIDP are way up from where this particular team is headed. And in no way did I say that Gload is a better hitter, because he isnt. But if you can get a starting shortstop, or a top of the rotation pitcher for him, and put Gload, who is a good contact hitter, into his spot. That may greatly increase the production of this team. And thats what we are trying to do, make this a better TEAM, not homerun producing 2nd place joke year after year.

 

Everybody seems to forget as well, that Paulie was not a stud before he came to the sox. In fact, he was almost an afterthought. Im ready, as are many fans, to turn this team into a contender, and this lineup is not going to do it. Regardless of how many times the fireworks go off in centerfield, the Twins are still kicking the s*** out of us year after year. Its time to change the formula

 

IM out!!

[jackie hayes]

Splitting hairs and judgement calls are always a good way to argue yourself into nothing.  If we are going to say that Paulie has a disadvantage for playing more and "seeing different pitchers" then we should evaluate if thats true.  Is it harder to only bat once a game, or to see the pitcher repeatedly, and finally get the solo homerun that delights the crowd.  It was a nice argument, but the word roughly, means just that, its not exact.  I was using stats to show that PK is not a clutch hitter, because he isnt.  Why would he have 35 homers and not break the 100 RBI border???  His K's and GIDP are way up from where this particular team is headed.  And in no way did I say that Gload is a better hitter, because he isnt. But if you can get a starting shortstop, or a top of the rotation pitcher for him, and put Gload, who is a good contact hitter, into his spot.  That may greatly increase the production of this team.  And thats what we are trying to do, make this a better TEAM, not homerun producing 2nd place joke year after year.

 

Everybody seems to forget as well, that Paulie was not a stud before he came to the sox.  In fact, he was almost an afterthought.  Im ready, as are many fans, to turn this team into a contender, and this lineup is not going to do it.  Regardless of how many times the fireworks go off in centerfield, the Twins are still kicking the s*** out of us year after year.  Its time to change the formula

 

IM out!!

I'm not the one splitting hairs. You said he had about half the hrs in roughly the same number of at bats. That makes it sound like he's only half as likely to hit a hr in a runners-on ab. When you actually compute the statistic (an estimate of the probability of PK homering conditional on runners-on and qualifying for an ab), the drop is from 8.04% chance w/ the bases empty to 6.99% with runners on. That's not half, and I think most people would think that it could well be a random blip, not a meaningful difference. I also specified what particular types of pitchers I was referring to, closers and rhp (relievers) -- I wasn't referring to facing some random assortment of pitchers, b/c that's not what a batter faces.

[babybearhater]

I'm not the one splitting hairs.  You said he had about half the hrs in roughly the same number of at bats.  That makes it sound like he's only half as likely to hit a hr in a runners-on ab.  When you actually compute the statistic (an estimate of the probability of PK homering conditional on runners-on and qualifying for an ab), the drop is from 8.04% chance w/ the bases empty to 6.99% with runners on.  That's not half, and I think most people would think that it could well be a random blip, not a meaningful difference.  I also specified what particular types of pitchers I was referring to, closers and rhp (relievers) -- I wasn't referring to facing some random assortment of pitchers, b/c that's not what a batter faces.

and who would face closer more often this year. A pinch hitter or a starter who often gets taken out in the later innings for pinch runners. In all seriousness, you cant deny that trading paulie for pieces of the puzzle that this team needs. I am addressing what this team needs to win, not trying to argue the significance of stats. I have been to almost every home game this year, and have seen how many times this offense has sat down and slumped instead of grinding it out with singles. In my own opinion what I stated would help the team, and trading Paulie for an actual impact player, would help.

[jackie hayes]

and who would face closer more often this year.  A pinch hitter or a starter who often gets taken out in the later innings for pinch runners. In all seriousness, you cant deny that trading paulie for pieces of the puzzle that this team needs.  I am addressing what this team needs to win, not trying to argue the significance of stats.  I have been to almost every home game this year, and have seen how many times this offense has sat down and slumped instead of grinding it out with singles.  In my own opinion what I stated would help the team, and trading Paulie for an actual impact player, would help.

Maybe, but that's a different argument than saying PK's a bad clutch hitter. I don't know what kind of pitching the Sox could get for Paulie, and that's our biggest need, IMO.

[babybearhater]

Maybe, but that's a different argument than saying PK's a bad clutch hitter.  I don't know what kind of pitching the Sox could get for Paulie, and that's our biggest need, IMO.

He is a bad clutch hitter. The only clutch hit I remember was a homer in the pouring rain in the first month of the season. In my opinion, he reluctance to make clutch hits is the reason why he was leading the league in solo homers by a large margin, he tends to only hit when there arent runners on base. There is no reason that Gload should have better numbers with runners on base, than our supposed star player

[jackie hayes]

He is a bad clutch hitter.  The only clutch hit I  remember was a homer in the pouring rain in the first month of the season.  In my opinion, he reluctance to make clutch hits is the reason why he was leading the league in solo homers by a large margin, he tends to only hit when there arent runners on base.  There is no reason that Gload should have better numbers with runners on base, than our supposed star player

Except that Gload's numbers are based on so few abs, it could very well be a fluke. Maybe not. Anyway, I didn't want to hijack the thread, so I'll leave it at this.