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BP's "Top 50"--Where's Buehrle?


chitownsportsfan
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I would have to imagine it has something to do with most sabermaticians hating the Sox. They play small ball, the hitters have little patience, they allow a lot of hits, they don't strike a lot out, and they have a tendency to get "lucky" and win close ball games.

 

Regardless of how you feel about stats or not...I think the Sox are proving that, sometimes, the game does indeed go beyond the stats. They win with intangibles...and the sabermaticians hate that. I like it, and the Sox are winning consistently...I sure as hell don't care.

 

All that being said...this list is stupid. Why would you base the best 50 players in the league based off of PECOTA. I just don't get how you can make up 1 stat and determine who the best player is. Silver is apparently a pretty pisspoor researcher.

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I have found that the whole PECTOTA system is great for fantasy baseball, but when it comes to real baseball it all kind of falls apart, as the sox proved last year. The system is good at predicting a player's numbers, but as far as predicting a team's succes it is worthless. It definetly overvalues OBP and undervalues defense and fundamental baseball. It also tends to undervalue pitchers like Buehrle, Glavine, and even Maddux. Guys who don't have great K or Hit rates but still find a way to win.

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Usually this type of thing would infuriate me. But, we won the World Series last year and we have won 9 of our last 10. I could give a s*** less about what these f***tards, or any other f***tards for that matter, think. That is all, go Sox.

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QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Apr 20, 2006 -> 12:12 AM)
You can thank Jim Thome for that.  :)

 

I have never seen a team who were now as patient in at-bats as the sox are cause of one player they've brought in. It is still early in the season, but it's nice to see these guys get good at-bats and be patient at the plate this season.

 

Thome- 18/6 BB:K ratio (simply outstanding)

Dye- 10/8

Konerko- 7/6

Uribe- 4/5

Iguchi- 6/11

AJ- 2/6

Pods- 3/5

Crede- 3/2 (to me he has made more contact and has a better eye so far this year, than I've ever seen him have.)

BA- 4/17 (He's K'd an awful lot of course but he has gotten as many walks (more) as some of the players listed.)

 

Hell I'll even say the bench players..

Mack- 3/8

Widger- 3/1

Cintron- 1/4

Gload 1/0

Pablo 0/2 (the only player who hasn't reached a base on BB.)

 

It's just really nice to see regardless if it's only April 20th.

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QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Apr 19, 2006 -> 06:16 PM)
Since the list is for younger players who will be valuable to their team in the future, it's not really a top 50 list.

 

Still there's some bad errors here. Kendrick over Wood. I'm sure Jason would tell us that's not right. David Ortiz so high (I doubt whether he can produce the numbers he has over the next few years), and B.J Upton at 25 (not like his defense is a problem or anything right)?  :lol:

I think right now there are some people who would put Kendrick over Wood, largely based on the fact that Kendrick has perfomed at a higher minor league level than Wood and has shown very good numbers in batting average, which I think sometimes translates better than power numbers to the big leagues.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Apr 20, 2006 -> 03:24 PM)
I think right now there are some people who would put Kendrick over Wood, largely based on the fact that Kendrick has perfomed at a higher minor league level than Wood and has shown very good numbers in batting average, which I think sometimes translates better than power numbers to the big leagues.

Well I would argue that Wood has a much higher ceiling than Kendrick in terms of power, and what he did in the Arizona League during the off-season was phenonemal. Hitting 43HR's in high A ball at age 20 is pretty darn impressive too (even if he has to work on his plate discipline).

 

I don't think necessarily that having a good BA average in the minors translates to having better power in the majors either. I mean if you look at Jeremy Reed, he has an amazing AVG down at Birmingham, and even though he's hitting in a pitchers park in Seattle, and his power will come later on in his career, he hasn't done anything power wise yet.

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QUOTE(SoxAce @ Apr 20, 2006 -> 03:23 PM)
I have never seen a team who were now as patient in at-bats as the sox are cause of one player they've brought in. It is still early in the season, but it's nice to see these guys get good at-bats and be patient at the plate this season.

And this is the main reason why our offense is doing so well right now. Our hitters are being a lot more patient like you've said, and they're waiting for the right pitch to hit.

 

People say a team like Detroit will have a better offense than us. Well they have awful plate discipline as a team as a whole. If we can keep up our plate discipline, I'd almost argue that we'd have a better offense than them.

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QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Apr 20, 2006 -> 05:31 AM)
Well I would argue that Wood has a much higher ceiling than Kendrick in terms of power, and what he did in the Arizona League during the off-season was phenonemal. Hitting 43HR's in high A ball at age 20 is pretty darn impressive too (even if he has to work on his plate discipline).

 

I don't think necessarily that having a good BA average in the minors translates to having better power in the majors either. I mean if you look at Jeremy Reed, he has an amazing AVG down at Birmingham, and even though he's hitting in a pitchers park in Seattle, and his power will come later on in his career, he hasn't done anything power wise yet.

 

The thing about Wood, though, is that the league he had his 100 x-tra basehits in is an absolute hitters haven, IIRC. I thought I remember reading something like 11.5 runs being the average per game in that league. That's amazing...

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More reason why I think a lot of statisticians are flat out DUMB. This is one of the most pathetic top 50 lists I've ever seen. A 2nd grader could come up with a better list.

 

Putting someone like Felix Hernandez as the 7th best player in baseball...BAHAHAHA. Having a guy like Howie Kendrick over a Jake Peavy or Carlos Beltran. Hell both Uptons are in the top 25. If thats the case why do the Drays SUCK???

 

Plus these guys are actually implying all contracts are equal which makes there list even more RETARDED.

 

BP is about as crappy of a place as things get. Adam Dunn, 19th best, my freaking ass. This has to be about as bad of an article I've ever seen written. Hell Billy Beane and Depodesta would fall off a chair if they read this stupid s***.

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QUOTE(kyyle23 @ Apr 19, 2006 -> 04:32 PM)
Not one White Sox player.    And there are even players that arent in the major leagues on this list.  What a slap in the face to the White Sox.

Not just the Sox, plenty of teams. Hell if you are going to use some statistical indicator, I'd expect a guy like JD Drew to be on that list. When he's heatlhy he puts up very good numbers.

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QUOTE(TLAK @ Apr 19, 2006 -> 05:25 PM)
He says he's just looking at trade value.  Could someone splain to me how Velander has a higher trade value than Brandon McCarthy?

I'd buy Verlander having a higher trade value than McCarthy. I think given the choice a lot of teams would go with the guy with the sexy stuff as opposed to the guy who could pitch. Its just like 5 years ago, depsite very comparable numbers (if not better numbers by Buehrle) most GM's would have given up more for Kerry Wood than they would have for Mark Buehrle.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Apr 19, 2006 -> 09:24 PM)
I think right now there are some people who would put Kendrick over Wood, largely based on the fact that Kendrick has perfomed at a higher minor league level than Wood and has shown very good numbers in batting average, which I think sometimes translates better than power numbers to the big leagues.

I don't think there is a scout out there that will say that Kendrick has more power potential than Wood. Nor is there a scout out there that would rate Kendrick over Wood. All that said Kendrick is a damn good prospect himself. Would be #1 in our system.

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QUOTE(BobDylan @ Apr 20, 2006 -> 04:34 AM)
He starts off with a PROSPECT that is projected to be a mid-rotation starter. What the hell?

That is why it is called Baseball Prospectus. The list has no relation to real world value. It seems like he took 50 random names out of a list of great players and prospects. Seems like there was a ton of analysis done to make that list up.

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QUOTE(BobDylan @ Apr 20, 2006 -> 04:34 AM)
He starts off with a PROSPECT that is projected to be a mid-rotation starter. What the hell?

 

Not only a prospect, but a Japanese league player who hasnt even been released from his contract yet.

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QUOTE(JenksForPrez45 @ Apr 20, 2006 -> 08:48 AM)
Does anyone else think Jhonny Peralta is a little rediculous at #15?  I mean cmon no Sox players in the top 50!

 

:unsure:

Yeap, one good season and suddenly he's a top 15 player for the future.

 

Please.

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