YASNY Posted January 30, 2008 Share Posted January 30, 2008 QUOTE(Cknolls @ Jan 30, 2008 -> 02:38 PM) Wait till the mkt closes. How many bullets are left in the Fed's gun? Knife fight, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted January 30, 2008 Share Posted January 30, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted January 30, 2008 Share Posted January 30, 2008 QUOTE(StrangeSox @ Jan 30, 2008 -> 02:21 PM) Jet Blue's over $6 now. Good spot. Up 33% from when I picked it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 5, 2008 Share Posted February 5, 2008 (edited) By the way, while y'all have been voting, some numbers came out showing that in January, the U.S. economy took what appears to be a gigantic nosedive. A report on the performance of the Service Sector of the economy, which had been expected to show a slight increase in January, showed seemingly a large contraction. A mark of 50 on that scale is considered to be holding steady, 51.5 or so was expected, and it came in at 44.6. That's the 2nd lowest number on record, next to October of 2001. According to Paul Krugman's blog, this number typically tracks strongly with the monthly job numbers. Edited February 5, 2008 by Balta1701 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted February 5, 2008 Share Posted February 5, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 04:11 PM) By the way, while y'all have been voting, some numbers came out showing that in January, the U.S. economy took what appears to be a gigantic nosedive. A report on the performance of the Service Sector of the economy, which had been expected to show a slight increase in January, showed seemingly a large contraction. A mark of 50 on that scale is considered to be holding steady, 51.5 or so was expected, and it came in at 44.6. That's the 2nd lowest number on record, next to October of 2001. According to Paul Krugman's blog, this number typically tracks strongly with the monthly job numbers. The fed knows, that's why they cut rates 1.25% in 9 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sox4lifeinPA Posted February 5, 2008 Share Posted February 5, 2008 Crazy time to be in banking... rates just fell through the floor. I had someone come in on Saturday and lost .50% in the mean time. SOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 7, 2008 Author Share Posted February 7, 2008 As a follow-up to our earlier discussions predicting airline mergers... Delta and Northwest are engaged in serious merger discussions, and now United and Continental are talking as well. No word yet on any consolidation in the newer, smaller airlines (AirTran, Frontier, Midwest Express, JetBlue, etc.), but as Virgin America goes online, I'd imagine we'll see some of those airlines combine as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco72 Posted February 8, 2008 Share Posted February 8, 2008 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 7, 2008 -> 10:01 AM) As a follow-up to our earlier discussions predicting airline mergers... Delta and Northwest are engaged in serious merger discussions, and now United and Continental are talking as well. No word yet on any consolidation in the newer, smaller airlines (AirTran, Frontier, Midwest Express, JetBlue, etc.), but as Virgin America goes online, I'd imagine we'll see some of those airlines combine as well. Consolidation is long overdue for the legacy carriers, but what's your reasoning behind some of the smaller ones? They seem to be more profitable with newer fleets, fewer types of planes, and better cost structures. Clearly, in some cases, a match would make sense. For example, Frontier and AirTran which serve few of the same markets but are very similar and already have a code sharing arrangement. Talking out loud here, but would a switch from a 'regional' airline to more national and international still allow these companies to use the business models that are working for them now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted February 8, 2008 Share Posted February 8, 2008 QUOTE(Disco72 @ Feb 8, 2008 -> 05:21 PM) Consolidation is long overdue for the legacy carriers, but what's your reasoning behind some of the smaller ones? They seem to be more profitable with newer fleets, fewer types of planes, and better cost structures. Clearly, in some cases, a match would make sense. For example, Frontier and AirTran which serve few of the same markets but are very similar and already have a code sharing arrangement. Talking out loud here, but would a switch from a 'regional' airline to more national and international still allow these companies to use the business models that are working for them now? No. I'll just leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 Muni bond funds are being decimated, especially closed end funds. So much so that sell signals are being generated on some:Blackrock Muniyield Quality Fund, Blackrock Long-Term Municipal Advantage, Blackrock Strategic Municipal Trust, Eaton Vance Municipal Bond Fund, and Nuveen Premium Income Fund. Also, get ready for more writedowns. The problem is the garbage these financials have on their balance sheets are starting to trade...much lower. And liquidity and Fed intervention cannot stop it. Let the unwinding begin..... Good Luck BOOM BOOM. Nearly $50 trillion CDS CDO and levered loans out there. Try to avoid the boulder folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 QUOTE(Cknolls @ Feb 29, 2008 -> 10:45 AM) Nearly $50 trillion CDS CDO and levered loans out there. Try to avoid the boulder folks. You can't be serious with that number can you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 29, 2008 Author Share Posted February 29, 2008 QUOTE(Cknolls @ Feb 29, 2008 -> 01:45 PM) Nearly $50 trillion CDS CDO and levered loans out there. Try to avoid the boulder folks. You keep using that number for CDS', but its completely misleading. That's the NOTIONAL exposure. Even worst case, only a very small number of the bonds being protected will default and see a contingent action resulting in exercise. So the REAL exposure is a much, much smaller number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 29, 2008 Author Share Posted February 29, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 29, 2008 -> 01:58 PM) You can't be serious with that number can you? See my response to him. The $50T might be the "notional" value total - the total value of all instruments being protected via a CDS contract. Saying that there is $50T of exposure in CDS' out there is like saying that the total par value of all bonds is the same as exposure to them. Its not at all accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 You guys probably expected mortgage debt to affect muni bonds too, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 How should I describe the CDS market then? Put a value on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 BTW Fed funds are pricing in 62% chance of a 75bps, with a 50bps fully priced in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 29, 2008 Author Share Posted February 29, 2008 QUOTE(Cknolls @ Feb 29, 2008 -> 03:18 PM) How should I describe the CDS market then? Put a value on it. You can't. You could take a flyer on it... figure an appoximate categorized breakdown of the grades of instruments and indicies into percentages of the total notional, break the notional out to those segments, apply the expected attributable default rate for each rating level to each notional segment, then re-add the resulting values to a sum. That gives you the amount of expected risk exposure. And that is more relevant here than actual "value", since valuation is so vague in the world of swaps anyway. That risk number gives you an idea of the par value of the defaulted instruments that are likely to result in an exercise of the contingent put leg of the swap. Furthering that, you can probably figure that some of those puts will not properly cash settle as swap receivers fail to deliver. That's where swap clearing houses, just now coming on to the scene, come into play. CME has one going live shortly, I believe. It provides mitigation of that risk, and that's the next thing you'll see - swaps will started to be cleared via these entities. That will take the risk down further. So you see, the CDS exposure and lack of regulation is indeed a bit scary, but its not the looming global economy-killer you characterize it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 I'm going to hope this is a mistake, but this is what the front page of CNN.com is showing right now on its stock ticker for me. Markets » Updated: 3:40 pm ET, February 29 -309.68 (-2.46%) Dow 12,272.50 -59.28 (-2.54%) Nasdaq 2,272.29 -1,234.61 (-90.27%) S&P 133.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 It's not. The markets took a beating today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 29, 2008 Author Share Posted February 29, 2008 QUOTE(StrangeSox @ Feb 29, 2008 -> 03:59 PM) It's not. The markets took a beating today. Actually it is - look at the S&P. The ticker says it dropped 90% of its value. It wasn't THAT bad a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 (edited) QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 29, 2008 -> 03:03 PM) Actually it is - look at the S&P. The ticker says it dropped 90% of its value. It wasn't THAT bad a day. Oops! I just glanced at the NASDAQ and Dow Jones. The three indexes are down ~2.5% today. Edited February 29, 2008 by StrangeSox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sox4lifeinPA Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 why didn't I buy RTP 5 years ago like I planned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 For anyone who thought the housing market might be starting to approach a bottom, the NYT has a column today noting that in a few of the roughest areas, in January (admittedly part of the slow sale part of the season according to their graph)...the number of new foreclosures actually approached or even topped the number of new sales. In other words, foreclosures alone in these areas are creating more vacant housing than can be sold, let alone anyone who actually wants to sell who isn't being foreclosed on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NUKE_CLEVELAND Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Mar 1, 2008 -> 04:46 PM) For anyone who thought the housing market might be starting to approach a bottom, the NYT has a column today noting that in a few of the roughest areas, in January (admittedly part of the slow sale part of the season according to their graph)...the number of new foreclosures actually approached or even topped the number of new sales. In other words, foreclosures alone in these areas are creating more vacant housing than can be sold, let alone anyone who actually wants to sell who isn't being foreclosed on. Let it keep tanking. I'll be in the market for a 1st time home here in just a few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 Oil hit an indisputable all time high today, hitting 103.95 a barrel. I believe the consensus inflation adjusted high was 103.76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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