NorthSideSox72 Posted July 15, 2008 Author Share Posted July 15, 2008 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 15, 2008 -> 03:38 PM) If you're looking purely long term I'd agree on that. Long term in the 20-30 year window. But for the next several years, I think things are going to get a lot worse before they get better. I think its a good move in true short term ( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Financials are a tremendous 5 year play, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 15, 2008 -> 01:49 PM) Financials are a tremendous 5 year play, imo. Considering that the government keeps refusing to let them fail...that's probably true. I could still see them heading in a downwards direction for at least another year or more though, because I still think we're still only in the opening act of the housing bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 15, 2008 -> 04:35 PM) Considering that the government keeps refusing to let them fail...that's probably true. I could still see them heading in a downwards direction for at least another year or more though, because I still think we're still only in the opening act of the housing bust. Look at the stock prices. The only place down they can go is bankrupt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 15, 2008 -> 02:49 PM) Financials are a tremendous 5 year play, imo. How are they going to make money while they are de-leveraging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Oil is now down 15 dollars from its high. Did we see the top, or is this just momentary correction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 QUOTE (Rex Kicka** @ Jul 16, 2008 -> 10:01 AM) Oil is now down 15 dollars from its high. Did we see the top, or is this just momentary correction? All of today's numbers were bearish (increased supply, refining, coupled with decrease in demand). From a techincal trading standpoint, a close under 135 and change is a very good sign for consumers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted July 16, 2008 Author Share Posted July 16, 2008 QUOTE (Rex Kicka** @ Jul 16, 2008 -> 10:01 AM) Oil is now down 15 dollars from its high. Did we see the top, or is this just momentary correction? From the articles I've read the last few days (WSJ, behind the wall), it seems that the drop is primarily driven by "fears" of decreased demand due to a weakening economy. Then there are a litany of other, smaller factors that they are saying may also be contributing - dollar bottoming, perceived behavioral changes in US consumers further decreasing demand, and perceived stabilization of some oil-producing countries. But the economy seems to be the biggest reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 A random, blog inspired thought...the FDIC $100,000 limit was set back in the 1980's, and thanks to inflation, that's something like 2-3 times that amount in today's dollars. Isn't it about time to increase the amount the FDIC insures in any account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted July 16, 2008 Author Share Posted July 16, 2008 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 16, 2008 -> 12:06 PM) A random, blog inspired thought...the FDIC $100,000 limit was set back in the 1980's, and thanks to inflation, that's something like 2-3 times that amount in today's dollars. Isn't it about time to increase the amount the FDIC insures in any account? Its still amazes me how often laws are passed with specific dollar amounts like that, without an inflationary increase being automatic. That would be so much easier in every way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 QUOTE (Rex Kicka** @ Jul 16, 2008 -> 09:01 AM) Oil is now down 15 dollars from its high. Did we see the top, or is this just momentary correction? give it a week and Exxon will demand a government bail out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 QUOTE (mr_genius @ Jul 16, 2008 -> 09:28 AM) give it a week and Exxon will demand a government bail out They already get a couple billion a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 16, 2008 -> 11:30 AM) They already get a couple billion a year. thats hardly enough to cover these hard times they are facing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted July 17, 2008 Share Posted July 17, 2008 WFC and JPM beat beaten down earnings expectations. Yippy! But how did they do it? By being very aggressive on their loan loss reserves(WFC), and actually decreasing them(JPM). Lower loan loss reserves = higher profits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted July 17, 2008 Author Share Posted July 17, 2008 Regulators raided Wachovia Securities in St. Louis today (this line of business used to be AG Edwards), looking for evidence of illegal sales and trading practices on auction rate securities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted July 25, 2008 Share Posted July 25, 2008 FWIW. Wamu's credit default swaps are trading above the level(mid-800's), that Bear Stearns' were before they went bye-bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted July 25, 2008 Author Share Posted July 25, 2008 QUOTE (Cknolls @ Jul 25, 2008 -> 02:59 PM) FWIW. Wamu's credit default swaps are trading above the level(mid-800's), that Bear Stearns' were before they went bye-bye. Rumors are heavy on the FI floor at a large institutional buy-side (which shall go unnamed) that Wamu is going under. Started hearing it a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 5, 2008 Share Posted August 5, 2008 Crude Oil has traded under $120 a couple of times the last two days. Today it has been under as much as it has been over. It will be interesting to see where they settle this thing. Another interesting number is the 118.32 mark, which would be a 20% decline from the highs. After that, it has a way to fall again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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