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NorthSideSox72

Three Questions about your 2007 White Sox

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We already have a predictions thread, but I'm curious what people think on the three questions below. No matter how many stats we look at or how much scouting people do, there are always surprises when the season gets going. So what will those be?

 

Regarding your 2007 White Sox...

 

1. Who will be the most improved or most surprising player(s)?

 

2. Who will have the biggest drop-off or most disappointing season(s)?

 

3. What is the X Factor on this team? In other words, what is the one dynamic, situation or player that will have the greatest single effect on the outcome of the season?

 

My answers...

 

1. Juan Uribe. I think Juan settles down and decides to take more control of his swing, and has a season similar to 2004. Average in the 270's, 25+ HR, good situational hitting. And the usual excellent defense, maybe even better, due to his looking much more in shape. I'd even say he'll steal a few bases again, maybe 5 to 10. He's going to be thinking about the future, and I think he'll be motivated by his offseason troubles.

 

2. Joe Crede and Mark Buehrle. Much as I hate to say it because Crede is my favorite player on the team, but I think his average comes down to earth (maybe .260 or so), HR total is similar or maybe a little lower. I think last year was a career year for him. His defense will still be excellent, though, and he may actually draw a few more walks than last year, on the positive side. As for Buehrle, he won't be as bad as the 2nd half last year, but he won't recover to his former self either. I'd guess an ERA in the 4.25 to 4.50 range, and he'll basically look like a mid-rotation guy. I don't know why I think this, since its a contract year for him and history would seem to indicate he'll recover, but for some reason I have a bad feeling about his 2007 season.

 

3. Injuries will dictate the fortunes of the team. If this team is healthy, they will be competitive for a playoff spot. But the Sox have been extraordinarily fortunate with injuries the last few years, and that is unlikely to continue. And where those injuries occur will dictate their effect. The Sox have depth and can handle injuries semi-well at corner OF, 3B, the pen, and even starting pitching. 1B, kind of. But if the injuries hit SS, 2B or C, the team will suffer in a big way.

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Buehrle? I don't think he can do much worse than last year as a whole.

 

 

Here is mine:

 

1. Brian Anderson - Most Improved - because he has the most room to improve. The entire pitching staff would be a close second.

 

2. Joe Crede - Biggest Drop-off - He had too big of a year over his career averages to do it again.

 

3. LF-CF-Leadoff - X-Factor's - Those positions other than the starting pitching will have the biggest impact on this team. If the Sox get solid contributions from those positions, they make the playoffs.

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 8, 2007 -> 10:31 AM)
We already have a predictions thread, but I'm curious what people think on the three questions below. No matter how many stats we look at or how much scouting people do, there are always surprises when the season gets going. So what will those be?

 

Regarding your 2007 White Sox...

 

1. Who will be the most improved or most surprising player(s)?

 

2. Who will have the biggest drop-off or most disappointing season(s)?

 

3. What is the X Factor on this team? In other words, what is the one dynamic, situation or player that will have the greatest single effect on the outcome of the season?

 

My answers...

 

1. Juan Uribe. I think Juan settles down and decides to take more control of his swing, and has a season similar to 2004. Average in the 270's, 25+ HR, good situational hitting. And the usual excellent defense, maybe even better, due to his looking much more in shape. I'd even say he'll steal a few bases again, maybe 5 to 10. He's going to be thinking about the future, and I think he'll be motivated by his offseason troubles.

 

2. Joe Crede and Mark Buehrle. Much as I hate to say it because Crede is my favorite player on the team, but I think his average comes down to earth (maybe .260 or so), HR total is similar or maybe a little lower. I think last year was a career year for him. His defense will still be excellent, though, and he may actually draw a few more walks than last year, on the positive side. As for Buehrle, he won't be as bad as the 2nd half last year, but he won't recover to his former self either. I'd guess an ERA in the 4.25 to 4.50 range, and he'll basically look like a mid-rotation guy. I don't know why I think this, since its a contract year for him and history would seem to indicate he'll recover, but for some reason I have a bad feeling about his 2007 season.

 

3. Injuries will dictate the fortunes of the team. If this team is healthy, they will be competitive for a playoff spot. But the Sox have been extraordinarily fortunate with injuries the last few years, and that is unlikely to continue. And where those injuries occur will dictate their effect. The Sox have depth and can handle injuries semi-well at corner OF, 3B, the pen, and even starting pitching. 1B, kind of. But if the injuries hit SS, 2B or C, the team will suffer in a big way.

 

 

1. I think the most improved or suprising player will be buehrle. This is simply based on last year, but i think buehrle will return to form and give us a great year.

 

2. Most disappointing, Jim Thome. While i think he will have a decent year, he showed signs of his age down the stretch last year. I also worry he will be forced to sit a lot this year, possibly with injuries.

 

3. This may sound cliche but remembering how to execute all the small things will be the sox X-factor. Bunting, advancing the runner, getting sac flys. Playing "Ozzie Ball" or smart ball or whatever, while it sounds dumb and obvious was one of the main reasons the sox did not make the playoffs last year and will be a crucial aspect to their success this season.

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1. Who will be the most improved or most surprising player(s)? Javy

 

2. Who will have the biggest drop-off or most disappointing season(s)? Thornton

 

3. What is the X Factor on this team? In other words, what is the one dynamic, situation or player that will have the greatest single effect on the outcome of the season?

Pitching.

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1. Most improved- Javy Vazquez. I expect him to finally have that 16 win season in 2007.

2. Biggest drop- I agree w/ RME JICO about Joe Crede. He had a monster year in 2006 and w/ his back problems i expect him to have a decent decline.

3. X-factor(s)- I have 3 X-factors. Look below:

xmensox.jpg

 

If Floyd can manage to some how win 10-11 games, if Anderson can somehow manage to hit at least .260 and have a decent obp, if Pods can stay healthy and steal at least 50 SBs and have a decent obp i say there is no way we miss out on the post season in 2007.

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QUOTE(GreatScott82 @ Mar 8, 2007 -> 11:05 AM)
1. Most improved- Javy Vazquez. I expect him to finally have that 16 win season in 2007.

2. Biggest drop- I agree w/ RME JICO about Joe Crede. He had a monster year in 2006 and w/ his back problems i expect him to have a decent decline.

3. X-factor(s)- I have 3 X-factors. Look below:

xmensox.jpg

 

If Floyd can manage to some how win 10-11 games, if Anderson can somehow manage to hit at least .260 and have a decent obp, if Pods can stay healthy and steal at least 50 SBs and have a decent obp i say there is no way we miss out on the post season in 2007.

Who is the fourth guy in that graphic? Is that Wolverine? Did we pick him up in the Rule 5 or something?

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QUOTE(soxfan3530 @ Mar 8, 2007 -> 11:54 AM)
1. I think the most improved or suprising player will be buehrle. This is simply based on last year, but i think buehrle will return to form and give us a great year.

 

2. Most disappointing, Jim Thome. While i think he will have a decent year, he showed signs of his age down the stretch last year. I also worry he will be forced to sit a lot this year, possibly with injuries.

 

3. This may sound cliche but remembering how to execute all the small things will be the sox X-factor. Bunting, advancing the runner, getting sac flys. Playing "Ozzie Ball" or smart ball or whatever, while it sounds dumb and obvious was one of the main reasons the sox did not make the playoffs last year and will be a crucial aspect to their success this season.

 

 

Good answers and agree with all.

 

Definately see No. 2. I don't think I've heard his name mentioned one time this spring.

We'll see how many people say JD after his monster year also. And I don't think it's an indication the JD declines...just how great a year he had last year.

Edited by Wanne

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1. Most Improved - Mark Buehrle - He will be back to being a front line ace and he will sign an extension to stay in Chicago.

 

2. Most Dissapointing - Bobby Jenks - Don't ask me why, but I have some question-marks when it comes to Jenksy. I should say the only way things will be dissapointing from him is if he is injured. Otherwise I'm leaning with Jermaine Dye, mainly in the sense that he won't have another MVP like year, but still a solid one.

 

3. X Factor - Bullpen. I have confidence in our veteran starters so I won't call the starting rotation the x-factor, but I am not so sure about the pen as a whole and if it steps up and dominates this team will dominate as well.

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 8, 2007 -> 11:06 AM)
Who is the fourth guy in that graphic? Is that Wolverine? Did we pick him up in the Rule 5 or something?

 

 

LMAO! I was thinking the same thing. Okay first, maybe, second, uh-huh, third, okay... fourth... is... that....?

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most improved-Uribe, one year he will be unbelievable, this could be it.

 

most dissappointing-Vazquez-Not really to me, I think he is what he is, but it appears a lot of people are expecting him to blossom.

 

x-factor-Bullpen. I think it will either be great or horrible. Its amazing how good a guy like Aardsma supposedly is when he could even stick with the Cubs for the entire 2006 season. I wonder if Thornton will continue to grow or go back to his struggles, if MacDougal can stay healthy, if Boone Logan can get out major league hitters, if Jenks can stay in decent enough shape and healthy, if the real Sisco is the 2005 or2006 version, and if these guys are capable of throwing enough strikes.

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QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Mar 8, 2007 -> 11:51 AM)
x-factor-Bullpen. I think it will either be great or horrible. Its amazing how good a guy like Aardsma supposedly is when he could even stick with the Cubs for the entire 2006 season. I wonder if Thornton will continue to grow or go back to his struggles, if MacDougal can stay healthy, if Boone Logan can get out major league hitters, if Jenks can stay in decent enough shape and healthy, if the real Sisco is the 2005 or2006 version, and if these guys are capable of throwing enough strikes.

I think the Bullpen will be great AND horrible. Loads of talent, some will flourish, others won't. But I think it will be a bit erratic when all is said and done. And any given time, 4 or 5 of the 6 will be virtually unhittable, but 1 or 2 will be out of control.

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Most improved: if he get the playing time: Anderson. I'm just not sure he'll get the chance. If not him, then I go with Jark Guahrle.

 

Biggest step backwards: JD. I'm still not sure he'll stay fully healthy on us, and i mean, come on, how damn good was he last year?

 

X factor: Scott Podsednik. With the guys we have 2-5, we need someone to get on base, and some steals would be nice too. If he can get back to healthy form, then we're in good shape. Personally though I can't stand the thought of Erstad leading off.

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1. most improved player - Vazquez. He was so close to winning so many games last year before falling apart. This year i think he pulls it together and wins close to 20.

 

2. Most dissappointing player - i dont think we will have a huge dissappointment this year. maybe a reliver but thats it.

 

3. the bottom of the order or the bullpen.

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Most surprising - Charlie Haegar and his run for the Cy Young Award finnishing with a 24-6 record.

 

Most Dissapointing - A.J. Pierzynski who will suddenly find his inner nice guy and lose his competitive edge.

 

X-Factor - Jay Marriotti

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1. If given the opportunity, Brian Anderson. If Brian doesn't get a shot, then Buerhle. Mark will get back to being Mark and have his typical working mans kind of year.

 

2. Unfortuantely, I think Dye peaked last year. I think his drop off this year, will still leave him with pretty acceptable numbers, but I think they will most definitetly go down.

 

3. Ozzie. I think he has more affect on the game then most managers, be it positive or negative. Going into his fourth year, he needs to learn from some of his past mistakes and keep the guys focused.

Edited by Controlled Chaos

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1 - Anderson, basically because he has nowhere to go but up at the plate. And he did look a lot better in August/September last year. If he can stay out of Ozzie's doghouse (whether that's his fault or not), he'll take a big step forward.

 

2 - Thome isn't getting any younger and he's been dealing with injuries for the past few years.

 

3 - If Buehrle returns to form, the Sox are contenders. If not, they have no shot and he'll be dealt in July.

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Most improved: Joe Crede. Monster year coming, serious MVP candidate.

 

Most disappointing: Bobby Jenks and the bullpen overall. Despite the re-working, this guys wind up walking too many.

 

X-factor: Darin Erstad. I think he and Pods are going to spark the top of the lineup and give the big bats a ton of RBI's.

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Most Improved: Javy. I know he's a bit of a mental midget, but his splits are too good for statistics not to take over and for him to not really improve. Masset will be a big surprise guy IMO.

 

Biggest Drop-Off: Joe Crede. Same as Javy, only in complete reverse.

 

X-Factor: Darin Erstad. I can't explain this since I always have thought he was overrated, but for some reason I have a good feeling he'll be a nice solution to one of our OF problems. He seems healthy and can still field, run, and hit pretty well. Toby Hall is a CLOSE 2nd though with how important he'll be against lefties.

 

QUOTE(Chisoxfn @ Mar 8, 2007 -> 11:14 AM)
1. Most Improved - Mark Buehrle - He will be back to being a front line ace and he will sign an extension to stay in Chicago.

 

You very well be right about Buehrle, but him being really good and him signing an extension are mutually exclusive IMO unless we get the deal done before opening day. And Buehrle was NEVER an ace :P :bang

Edited by whitesoxfan101

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QUOTE(supernuke @ Mar 8, 2007 -> 12:38 PM)
Most surprising - Charlie Haegar and his run for the Cy Young Award finnishing with a 24-6 record.

 

Most Dissapointing - A.J. Pierzynski who will suddenly find his inner nice guy and lose his competitive edge.

 

X-Factor - Jay Marriotti

 

winnar

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 8, 2007 -> 10:31 AM)
We already have a predictions thread, but I'm curious what people think on the three questions below. No matter how many stats we look at or how much scouting people do, there are always surprises when the season gets going. So what will those be?

 

Regarding your 2007 White Sox...

 

1. Who will be the most improved or most surprising player(s)?

 

2. Who will have the biggest drop-off or most disappointing season(s)?

 

3. What is the X Factor on this team? In other words, what is the one dynamic, situation or player that will have the greatest single effect on the outcome of the season?

 

Awesome thread idea.

 

1. Andrew Sisco

 

2. Uribe's going to have the most disappointing season. Expect more of the same from Uribe in 2007: free swinging, no clue of the strikezone or how to work a count, with a horrible OBP.

 

3. Guillen. Like the 2006 team, the 2007 squad is good enough to win the division. We need Guillen to use his personnel better.

Edited by shoota

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1. Javier Vazquez will have a Cy Young candidate year, IMO, and Gavin Floyd and the Bullpen will both surprise people

 

2. Joe Crede, I don't think his back will be able to hold up... sadly enough.

 

3. The starting rotation

Edited by BearSox

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Most improved-Vazquez and Floyd. I think that Javy will have a Cy Young caliber season, but won't win. I'm thinking something along the lines of 17-20 wins 6-10 losses an ERA between 2.90-3.30 and 230+Ks for Javy and 10-14 Wins 9-13 Losses an ERA between 4.30 and 4.70 and 150+Ks for Floyd. He will struggle early but be much improved by July.

 

Most disappointing-Dye. I'd expect production closer to 04-05 levels.

 

X-factor-the bullpen. They could be dominant or horrible. I can imagine Ozzie needing some Pepto-Bismol if with all the walks that could be handed out.

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