5th starter article

[Capn12]

there are two definitions of a AAAA player

 

a player that is too good to pitch in AAA but not good enough yet to pitch in the majors

 

or

 

a player that is and will probably never be successful in the major leagues and is continually going back to the minors

 

how does that first definition not apply to danks at this point, and how does the latter not apply to floyd?

 

so 108 innings in the major leagues is suddenly not enough to judge a player? Fine. Is 151 enough? I wonder why so many people on this website have formed extremely solid opinions of brandon mccarthy one way or the other...

 

I also believe that our lack of a solid fifth starter is going to kill us this season, not because of a fifth starter, because if any one of our top four go down we are due for a 5-15 stretch with some extremely long bullpen outings.

 

I'm just amazed that a guy who fails to get his ERA very much below 7.00 in the NL facing a pitcher every nine batters in a weak division and a weak league...that because we traded for him all of a sudden Kenny "must've seen something we didn't know"

 

everything about his stats thus far is terrible. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I just can't see him being very successful moving from one of the worst divisions in the NL to the toughest division in the AL

 

I'm much more optimistic on Danks, but for 2008, not 2007.

 

 

So a 21 year old lefty with barely 2 years of organized minor league baseball experience is already an AAAA player? Wow, you already can see things better than our scouting then.

[Gregory Pratt]

Steroids were going on long before the "late 1990s."

[Balta1701]

Steroids were going on long before the "late 1990s."

You can't deny that there was an offensive explosion in baseball in the late 90's. That's the key point...there's lots of causes for it (smaller ballparks, better training, and of course increasing steroid usage)...so when Greg Maddux puts up an ERA of 5.6 in his first year...

 

In 1986, Maddux's first year, the NL average was 4.18 runs per game. in 2006, it was 4.76, and no team was even at 4.18 runs/game (the lowest was Pitt at 4.27). In other words, there was an offensive explosion that hasn't yet died away.

[DBAHO]

So a 21 year old lefty with barely 2 years of organized minor league baseball experience is already an AAAA player? Wow, you already can see things better than our scouting then.

Not only that, he's only pitched something like 70 innings in AAA ball for his career so far right? Considering he didn't really thrive at that level, I don't see how he's already outgrown it, but hey that's just me. I suppose most stud pitching prospects like Adam Miller from Cleveland for example are AAAA players as well.

 

Hey I'd love to have that type of AAAA player on my 40 man roster, no doubts about it.

 

But calling him an AAAA player is just putting him down in my opinion.

 

Look at say Mark Buehrle for example. He did well for B-Ham in 2000 and got the call up to the big leagues staight from there, and did quite alright for himself. Now back when he got the callup, would you call him an AAAA player?

 

He hasn't even played at that level yet, only pitched in nothing higher than AA ball yet gets a callup.

[Gregory Pratt]

Yeah, sure, but people were on steroids for a long time before the late 1990s. I've always been under the impression that more people started because I know McGwire, for instance, was on in the late=80s, early-90s (see: FBI -- Operation Equine).

 

First known steroid user was in the seventies. Forget his name.

 

This game hasn't been clean for a long time and won't be, either.

[witesoxfan]

my point was that some people seem to have a very good idea of where brandon mccarthy is going to be, but "the jury's still out" on floyd...seem hypocritical.

 

here's my main question - how many pitchers have pitched an over 7 era in the NL for their first 100 innings and then regained form to become serviceable major league pitchers? It's not like Garland or Contreras where he's hanging around the high 5s and 6s in the AL, he's in the SEVENS in the NL!

 

It seems to me Sox fans not only can look at McCarthy's stats, but they also recall seeing him throw most of those 150 innings. It's not enough to judge him, but Sox fans can make a reasonable estimate as to the type of numbers he'd put up this year. I figure inconsistency, a mediocre to slightly above mediocre ERA, a good WHIP, and a high home run rate; that's from watching him pitch and looking at stats. I can't imagine you've seen Floyd throw more than what he's thrown this Spring plus maybe 2 other games in Philly; that's an assumption, and if my assumption is incorrect, correct me and I look like the ass. Else, going based off of career stats and like 20 innings of Spring ball isn't enough.

 

Floyd has good stuff. If he can figure out how to pitch instead of just throw, he'll turn into a good pitcher. If not, he'll fade away quickly.

 

Also, while I get what you're saying when you call Danks a AAAA player, I've never heard that type of player referred to as a AAAA player. I've always referred to them as prospects, and that's how I've always heard them referred as. Busted prospects or journeymen minor leaugers are AAAA players, and that's the only definition I've ever known for a AAAA player. Well, that and Japan, I guess, since they consider the quality of Japan to be above AAA but below MLB.

[BearSox]

I have actually been very high on Floyd and I think he can become that stud that the Phillies drafted 4th overall. From all I have read, it seems like the Phillies pretty much ruined him by trying to change all of his mechanics and such, and just not letting him pitch. He is only 24. Plus, he has great stuff.

 

I also like Danks, but I think he needs another half-year in AAA to work out the kinks and become a bit more MLB ready.

 

And surprisingly, I also like Haeger. But I am a bit uneasy about having him as a starter. I'd like him in the pen, but right now, IMO, it seems like it will be Masset and Aardsma the other two righties.

[Balta1701]

And surprisingly, I also like Haeger. But I am a bit uneasy about having him as a starter. I'd like him in the pen, but right now, IMO, it seems like it will be Masset and Aardsma the other two righties.

I believe Aardsma gave up another run today. I think he's done absolutely nothing to earn that last bullpen spot, and I think it may well go to Charlie.

[BearSox]

I believe Aardsma gave up another run today. I think he's done absolutely nothing to earn that last bullpen spot, and I think it may well go to Charlie.

He did give up a run, but that happens. I thought he looked pretty good today and I liked what I saw from him on saturday.

[Balta1701]

He did give up a run, but that happens. I thought he looked pretty good today and I liked what I saw from him on saturday.

Not sure if it includes today, but his ERA this spring is 9.45. That's almost bad enough for him to join the starting rotation.

[BearSox]

Not sure if it includes today, but his ERA this spring is 9.45. That's almost bad enough for him to join the starting rotation.

He had a bad first few games, but I have been impressed with him the past two outings. Usually ST numbers are inflated anyway, and the best way to judge a player is by progression not stats.

 

 

Oh, and that homer he gave up was to the almighty Ross Gload, who doesn't Ross Gload hit homers off of?

Edited March 20, 2007 by BearSox

[Capn12]

He had a bad first few games, but I have been impressed with him the past two outings. Usually ST numbers are inflated anyway, and the best way to judge a player is by progression not stats.

Oh, and that homer he gave up was to the almighty Ross Gload, who doesn't Ross Gload hit homers off of?

I can't wait for us to be Ross Gload's b**** all year, and you KNOW its going to happen, he will have the big hits against us at some point.

[Flash Tizzle]

I can't wait for us to be Ross Gload's b**** all year, and you KNOW its going to happen, he will have the big hits against us at some point.

Yeah, kind of how I feel about Tyler Lumsden once he arrives in the Royal's rotation. Neither will be tremendous players overall, but everyone knows damn well they'll kill us at every opportunity.

[ScottyDo]

I can't wait for us to be Ross Gload's b**** all year, and you KNOW its going to happen, he will have the big hits against us at some point.

someone had to pick up where mike sweeney left off...since he's 13059173957 years old now...

[Steve9347]

I f***ing love John Danks.

[NorthSideSox72]

I can't wait for us to be Ross Gload's b**** all year, and you KNOW its going to happen, he will have the big hits against us at some point.

If someone on the Royals beats us up, I'll be happy if its him. Dude is hitting .424 this spring. With the mess of mediocre and/or young players over there in the OF, plus an injury-prone DH, I'd say its not impossible he may eventually slide into a starting spot this year.

[southsider2k5]

Are people honestly comparing Danks/Floyd to our 5th starters of old including guys like Grilli, Schoenweiess, Dan Wright, and Felix Diaz?

 

Danks and Floyd are light years more talented than these guys.

 

FWIW, I think Dan Wrights problems were more from his arms falling off, versus lack of stuff.

[Hideaway Lights]

My major point was that right now, on March 20th, we not only have no idea who are fifth starter is going to be, but we have no major league depth at the starting pitcher position vs. the last two seasons, when we had 5 seasoned starters going into the year (El Duque was the fifth starter in 05, Vazquez in 06). In the beginning portion of the season it's not likely to make as much of a difference, but if Contreras goes down for three weeks or so, what the hell is our rotation going to look like?

 

We were already counting on:

 

a) Contreras not to age much and hopefully still have lightening in a bottle left

b) Buehrle returning to form

c) Garland not going through the same April-May as last year

d) Vazquez being improved

 

now on top of that, we're counting on all being healthy AND getting a serviceable .500 ish pitcher out of the fifth slot from this erratic (read: motley) crew? Again, I like Danks for 2008 but he needs a few more ticks in the oven, no?

 

When I look at the list of what we're counting on from this unit this year, about 5 different alarms go off in my head. This could either go really well if we can stay healthy and get career avg numbers from all our starters, or it could derail and get really really ugly really really quick.

Edited March 20, 2007 by Hideaway Lights

[RockRaines]

FWIW, I think Dan Wrights problems were more from his arms falling off, versus lack of stuff.

Also Jason Grilli has turned into an extremely good bullpen guy, and Felix Diaz OWNS in OOTP.

 

Again, I like Danks for 2008 but he needs a few more ticks in the oven, no?

Not really, he just needs some more experience and a bit more control. He has the pitches.

[Soxbadger]

Yeah I liked Wright's stuff, just like I liked Rocky Biddle (I believe he pitched during Cal Ripkens last game and struck out the frst 3-4 batters), but the reality is that even Wright with his arm completely healthy was not even close in comparison to Floyd and Danks are as spects.

 

And speaking of ruling in DPBL, arent you glad we got Sisco?

[bmags]

My major point was that right now, on March 20th, we not only have no idea who are fifth starter is going to be, but we have no major league depth at the starting pitcher position vs. the last two seasons, when we had 5 seasoned starters going into the year (El Duque was the fifth starter in 05, Vazquez in 06). In the beginning portion of the season it's not likely to make as much of a difference, but if Contreras goes down for three weeks or so, what the hell is our rotation going to look like?

 

We were already counting on:

 

a) Contreras not to age much and hopefully still have lightening in a bottle left

B) Buehrle returning to form

c) Garland not going through the same April-May as last year

d) Vazquez being improved

 

now on top of that, we're counting on all being healthy AND getting a serviceable .500 ish pitcher out of the fifth slot from this erratic (read: motley) crew? Again, I like Danks for 2008 but he needs a few more ticks in the oven, no?

 

When I look at the list of what we're counting on from this unit this year, about 5 different alarms go off in my head. This could either go really well if we can stay healthy and get career avg numbers from all our starters, or it could derail and get really really ugly really really quick.

 

counting on buerhle, garland and vazquez being healthy is not far fetched.

[tealeafreaderii]

counting on buerhle, garland and vazquez being healthy is not far fetched.

counting on Buerhle to return to form might be.

[max power]

counting on Buerhle to return to form might be.

I don't see how. He is much more likely to play at his average career level than repeat his worse year.

[bmags]

worst half year.

[witesoxfan]

You can't tell me there's no reason at all to be concerned with Buehrle. He has a career 2.75 ERA in ST in 95 innings to go along with a 1.09 WHIP since 2003. This year, he has an ERA of 11.00, a WHIP of 2.00, 3 HR/9, and he has been absolutely torched.

 

Buehrle is probably the pitcher that worries me the most right now. Just seeing these lines, and seeing what he did last year, I can't help but fear he could easily be the Sox worst starter this season. I just hope he does something to prove that he's perfectly healthy and is full of confidence; as is, I don't know what the hell he can do.