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thomsonmi

2007 Draft Prospects

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With this topic, I am focusing on some college pitching prospects who you won't see in the first round projections of most mock drafts.

 

Mitch Harris, Junior at Navy

 

Mitch would be a better prospect if he wasn't at the Naval Academy where he has an commitment beyond just four years of college. I doubt he can even make himself available for the draft this year. His numbers over the last couple years are fantastic.

 

Harris' Career Honors

2007 Second-Team All-Patriot League Starting Pitcher and Designated Hitter

2007 Roger Clemens Award Watch List

2007 Brooks Wallace Award Watch List

2007 College Baseball Foundation National Honor Roll (Feb. 27, April 3)

2007 ECAC Pitcher of the Week (May 8)

2007 ECAC Player of the Week (April 4)

2007 Patriot League Pitcher of the Week (Feb. 20, Feb. 27, May 7)

2007 Patriot League Player of the Week (April 3)

2007 InsidePitching.com Northeast Regional Performance of the Week (Feb. 19)

2007 All-Service Academy Spring Classic Team

2007 CSTV.com Preseason National Player of the Year List (ranked 15th)

2007 PingBaseball.com Preseason Second-Team All-American

2007 NCBWA Preseason Third-Team All-American

2006 ABCA/Rawlings Third-Team All-American

2006 ABCA/Rawlings First-Team All-Northeast Region

2006 Patriot League Pitcher of the Year

2006 First-Team All-Patriot League

2006 Baseball America Second-Best Prospect in Cal Ripken Sr. League

2006 Roger Clemens Award Watch List

2006 College Baseball Foundation National Honor Roll (May 11)

2006 Patriot League Pitcher of the Week (Feb. 28, March 13, April 11)

 

Harris' Career Statistics

Year ERA W-L App GS CG SHO/CBO SV IP H R ER BB SO

2005.... 6.46 0-3 9 2 0 0/0 2 15.1 20 20 11 11 22

2006.... 1.74 10-3 13 13 6 2/1 0 82.2 57 22 16 20 113

2007.... 2.14 8-5 14 14 4 1/0 0 88.1 58 34 21 36 119

TOTAL... 2.32 18-11 36 29 10 3/1 2 186.1 135 76 48 67 254

Harris in the Record Books:

 

Owns school record with his 12.30 strikeouts per nine innings in 2006

His 10 victories as a sophomore are the second most in program history and tied for the most in Patriot League history

Holds the league record and ranks second on the single-season strikeout list with 113 in 2006

His 13 starts and two shutouts are tied for sixth best all-time in both categories

Harris' 1.74 ERA in 2006 places him second in the all-time Patriot League annals

One of five pitchers in school history to throw a complete-game no-hitter

 

 

 

Adam Mills, Senior at North Carolina-Charlotte

 

This year he is 13-2 with a 1.06 ERA. He struck out 136 batters in 135.2 innings and only walked 26 batters.

 

At Charlotte - 2006: Finished the season sixth all-time in program history for career strikeouts and seventh in wins and innings pitched... Honorable Mention A-10 All-Conference, one of a record nine Niners named All-Conference... Led team in starts, innings pitched and strikeouts, tied for team lead with five complete games and opponents' batting average among starters (.256)... A-10 final rankings - 1st in strikeouts, 2nd in innings pitched and starts, tied for 4th in wins, 11th in ERA, tied for 13th in opponent batting average... Most wins and lowest ERA among returning starters... 111 strikeouts was career-high mark and fourth-best in school history... Had career-best 12-strikeout effort in 11-1 victory at Saint Joseph's on April 16... Started and threw three shutout innings at home vs. No. 1 North Carolina on April 12, striking out four... Finished the season 114th-best in NCAA for individual ERA... Had lowest walks per inning average of career... Also had best stikeout to walk ratio in career... Won five of eight games in conference play and recorded a decision in eight of nine A-10 starts... Posted 6-2 home record, striking out 77 batters... Only surrendered one home run on the road in four starts, recording a 2-2 record... Margin of team victory in his eight wins was 6.75 runs... Got no-decision on March 11 vs. Siena, despite leaving with a 7-4 lead after six innings... Got no-decision despite leaving after 8.2 scoreless innings pitched on March 24 vs. George Washington... Pitched seven or more innings in eight of 17 starts...

 

Mills describes his repetoire as follows...

I throw a two-seamer, a four-seamer. Any time I go away I usually go straight four-seamer. And I have a slider and a knuckle curve and a changeup--pretty much I'm a four-pitch guy. Usually, I'm just using my fastball and pitching off that. But my out pitch is my slider, and I usually don't show that too much unless I'm ahead in the count, 0-2, 1-2, sometimes I use it 2-2. Usually I use what I've got to get ahead and put them away with that. But if you get to the point late in the game where they're sitting hard early and sitting soft late, you kind of change it up on them and go hard late. My last two complete games I've had, that's what I did in the eighth and ninth innings--instead of putting them away with the slider, I just went off the plate a little bit with the fastball and they were late on it.

 

 

 

 

 

Josh Collmenter, rhp, Central Michigan

 

Hitters hit only .201 against Josh this year. He has a 1.93 ERA for the season.

 

Hard-throwing right-hander capable of overpowering hitters ... No. 1 starter in weekend rotation ... 96 strikeouts in 2007 are seventh-most in a season at CMU, 94 strikeouts in 2006 are tied for ninth-most in a season at CMU ... ranks third all-time at CMU with 267 career strikeouts... tied for fifth in school history with 23 career wins.

 

2007 (as of 5/1/07): [had] tossed five complete games, including three complete-game shutouts ... struck out 96 batters in 92-2/3 innings ... 7-0 with a 0.60 ERA in six Mid-American Conference starts ... leads the MAC in innings pitched, wins, total strikeouts, shutouts, complete games and opponent batting average (.188) ... has worked at least seven innings in nine of 12 starts ... struck out at least 10 hitters in four starts ... three-time MAC West Division Pitcher of the Week honoree ... recognized by InsidePitching.com as the Great Lakes Region Performance of the Week three times ... matched a career high with 14 strikeouts in a four-hit, complete-game shutout at Eastern Michigan (5/5) ... struck out 13 batters while allowing one run on three hits in complete-game win at Toledo (4/27) ... fanned 12 in a complete-game, three-hit shutout at Bowling Green (4/6) ... struck out nine in a complete-game, three-hit shutout against Buffalo (3/23) ... struck out 10 in six innings in a no-decision at UAB on opening day (2/16).

 

According to Baseball America Collenter has been hot of late...Collmenter, a 6-foot-4, 235-pound junior, has thrown two complete-game shutouts in his last three starts. He allowed just three singles while striking out a season-high 12 without issuing a walk last Friday against Bowling Green State, just two weeks after holding Buffalo to three hits while striking out nine in the Chippewas' Mid-American Conference opener. In between, Collmenter threw seven strong innings in a 2-1 win against Kent State. He's now won all three conference starts for the Chippewas, who sit atop the MAC's Western Division at 8-1, their best conference start since 1990. Central Michigan is 19-12 overall, and Collmenter is 4-2, 2.03 with 57 strikeouts and 15 walks in 58 innings.

 

 

 

Let me add one more...

 

Zack Pitts, Junior rhp at Louisville

 

Zack had a 1.78 ERA this year. Batters hit only .204 against him. He was the Big East Pitcher of the Year.

 

According to Baseball America...

He commands his 88-92 mph fastball to both sides and does a good job keeping the ball down. Pitts flashes a good slider at times, though he doesn't repeat his delivery when throwing the pitch, and his changeup has been solid.

 

"Zack can pitch -- there are some similarities between him and Phelpsy," Clinkscales said. "They're both right-handed pitchers, they both pitch with fastballs aggressively, they can locate, both can get breaking balls and changeups over, and they're both efficient. I think it will be a good matchup."

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A report from our regional:

 

Best pitcher: Florida State RHP Bryan Henry

The senior right-hander is making the best of his final season with the Seminoles. With the Seminoles hoping to win a national title in June, Henry is the guy they will lean on when they need a clutch pitching performance. The veteran enters the Tallahassee Regional with a 14-1 record and a 2.54 ERA in 109 2/3 innings. He also has 112 strikeouts and 25 walks, while opponents are hitting him at a .240 clip. When Henry pitches, the Seminoles are almost unbeatable.

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Chris Salberg, Senior at Florida Atlantic

 

This year Salberg has 124 strikeouts in 100.1 innings pitched. Batters hit .225 against him.

 

As a Junior (2006): Started the season in the rotation before being moved to the bullpen on Apr. 29 against Jacksonville...longest outing of the season was 7 1/3 on Feb. 25 against Connecticut....had a season-high 11 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings against North Florida on Mar. 25...second on the team with 82 strikeouts and 73 2/3 innings...ranked seventh in the A-Sun in strikeouts...drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the 22nd round.

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I'm gonna see Pitts tomorrow as he will start against Miami in their regional opener. Chris Carpenter of Kent State is also supposed to be an early round pick, with first round murmurs, and he will face Mizzou in the night game. Hopefully Pitts wows me and Carpenter gets rocked. :)

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Arizona signed Max Scherzer.

 

QUOTE(thomsonmi @ May 31, 2007 -> 07:59 AM)
Chris Salberg, Senior at Florida Atlantic

 

This year Salberg has 124 strikeouts in 100.1 innings pitched. Batters hit .225 against him.

 

As a Junior (2006): Started the season in the rotation before being moved to the bullpen on Apr. 29 against Jacksonville...longest outing of the season was 7 1/3 on Feb. 25 against Connecticut....had a season-high 11 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings against North Florida on Mar. 25...second on the team with 82 strikeouts and 73 2/3 innings...ranked seventh in the A-Sun in strikeouts...drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the 22nd round.

 

He's from Rockford.

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I think if you want a difference maker, a top of the rotation guy. You need to explore the high school ranks. Someone with the body type, and you see the spark of stuff that projects to be a top of the rotation type guy. The college guys that are like this are off the board before they get to us. To me you take a chance. What the hell, the current drafting strategy hasnt exactly put superstars in the rotation. We have made a better splash with our later picks. So take a chance and get a toolsy kid. You can teach control, and how to pitch. You cannot teach stuff.

 

This is what I would like to see if this kid falls to us. He is high school, but has a good arm, movement and body size for a good pitcher.

 

Phillipe Aumont 6'7 225 Good fastball with serious life on it. Could grow into serious velocity. This is more of what I look at from a high school pick with some upper mobility. He needs control of course. But you can teach control in the minors, you cannot teach a guy who has a live arm that can grow into his velocity more.

 

 

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/ev...x.jsp?mc=aumont

 

 

Here is another top of the rotation type guy. His velocity projections could be topping 97/98 and he is a lefty.

 

 

Madison Bumgarner is my current favorite. He has nice projectability. His motion has some deception to it. And he has a lot of late life on that fastball.

 

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/ev...sp?mc=bumgarner

 

Madison Bumgarner has a strong, sturdy frame and an effortless delivery. He has an incredible feel for pitching, with an ability to throw all three of his pitches for strikes in any count. Madison's fastball has been clocked as high as 95 mph. He went 12-2 with a 0.99 ERA and 120 strikeouts in 84 innings as a junior on South Caldwell's state Class 4-A runner-up club. He also hit .392 with 14 home runs and 39 RBI’s. In the first game of the best-of-three state finals, Madison belted a pair of home runs and pitched a shutout. He spent much of the summer playing for American Legion Post 29. As a sophomore at South Caldwell High, he was 9-2 with a 1.20 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 77 innings. Madison’s freshman season he won five games and had a 1.63 ERA with 53 strikeouts in 30 innings. Madison has committed to North Carolina.

Edited by southsideirish71

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It seems doubtful Aumont will fall to the Sox. MLB.com's last projection had him going 9 to Arizona and BA has him 19 in their current prospect rankings (13 last week). If he continues to fall, which is doubtful, he would be a steal. Then again, there always seems to be one or two guys that slip insanely far for seemingly no reason.

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I brought this up in the other thread, but I wouldn't mind Josh Fields. He has good stuff and has a live arm. We need some future bullpen help, and hopefully he could succeed and get called up with 1-2 years. The Mets got a good one with Joe Smith, and it only took him 1 year to get up to the show and he has been dominating. Then again, Smith is a little bit different with the sidearm delivery with good stuff.

 

Also, an intriguing guy later on would be Chris Carpenter from Kent. He is likely to fall due to injury problems, but he has good fastball and a really good slider. He right now is a starter, but to keep him healthy, he might be better of going into the bullpen.

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QUOTE(BearSox @ May 31, 2007 -> 09:03 PM)
I brought this up in the other thread, but I wouldn't mind Josh Fields. He has good stuff and has a live arm. We need some future bullpen help, and hopefully he could succeed and get called up with 1-2 years. The Mets got a good one with Joe Smith, and it only took him 1 year to get up to the show and he has been dominating. Then again, Smith is a little bit different with the sidearm delivery with good stuff.

 

We need high upside guys. I like Fields but we need more than a reliever.

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I'm not totally opposed to picking a high upside high schooler. I just have no way of judging who is better.

 

The college players have stats. I have idenitified players who have been successful at the college level. I have looked for high strike out per inning totals, low ERA numbers, and low batting average against. I like those kind of young pitchers personally. They tend to be the guys with the highest upside and liveliest arms.

 

It does have to be recognized that high upside high school ballplayers also present greater risks.

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QUOTE(thomsonmi @ May 31, 2007 -> 10:34 PM)
I'm not totally opposed to picking a high upside high schooler. I just have no way of judging who is better.

 

The college players have stats. I have idenitified players who have been successful at the college level. I have looked for high strike out per inning totals, low ERA numbers, and low batting average against. I like those kind of young pitchers personally. They tend to be the guys with the highest upside and liveliest arms.

 

It does have to be recognized that high upside high school ballplayers also present greater risks.

 

We have made plenty of "safe" picks over the last few years. Its time to get a possible number 1, instead of a possible number 5.

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QUOTE(southsideirish71 @ Jun 1, 2007 -> 10:09 AM)
We have made plenty of "safe" picks over the last few years. Its time to get a possible number 1, instead of a possible number 5.

Only six more days until we find out for sure.

 

I have an overwhelming feeling they'll screw it up. They'll pick the highest ceiling, safe pitcher imaginable. A potential #4 starter. Nick Schmidt sounds about right.

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QUOTE(Flash Tizzle @ Jun 1, 2007 -> 11:23 AM)
They'll pick the highest ceiling, safe pitcher imaginable. A potential #4 starter. Nick Schmidt sounds about right.

I've been thinking Schmidt too.

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QUOTE(BearSox @ Jun 1, 2007 -> 04:57 PM)
I wouldn't mind Josh Smoker...

Neither would I, but I doubt he's available at our position.

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QUOTE(Flash Tizzle @ Jun 1, 2007 -> 05:05 PM)
Neither would I, but I doubt he's available at our position.

In MLB.com's recent projection, they had him going 29, I think...

 

But then again, the Baseball draft is probably the hardest to project.

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QUOTE(thomsonmi @ May 30, 2007 -> 10:37 PM)
Zack Pitts, Junior rhp at Louisville

 

Zack had a 1.78 ERA this year. Batters hit only .204 against him. He was the Big East Pitcher of the Year.

 

According to Baseball America...

He commands his 88-92 mph fastball to both sides and does a good job keeping the ball down. Pitts flashes a good slider at times, though he doesn't repeat his delivery when throwing the pitch, and his changeup has been solid.

 

"Zack can pitch -- there are some similarities between him and Phelpsy," Clinkscales said. "They're both right-handed pitchers, they both pitch with fastballs aggressively, they can locate, both can get breaking balls and changeups over, and they're both efficient. I think it will be a good matchup."

Pitts got destroyed today by Miami. His fastball looked very mediocre, but his problem was control. I can definitely see how he didn't repeat his delivery very well, but I have to imagine his struggles were more due to nerves. Louisville hasn't been to regionals in a long time (I want to say 13 years) so this game was HUGE for that program, though they did rally for a 13-7 win. His final line was 1.2 IP, 7 R, 0 K, 1 BB, 8 hits. Only the one walk, but he also hit 2 batters and was behind seemingly every count. That scouting report says nothing of a curveball, which looked like his best pitch, though it could have been a slider. Whatever it was, it was a damn good breaking ball...when he got it over. Either his changeup sucked or he didn't throw it. I wasn't impressed, but he showed flashes of decent stuff. I wouldn't write him off, but he's not an early round pick.

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QUOTE(BearSox @ Jun 1, 2007 -> 05:10 PM)
In MLB.com's recent projection, they had him going 29, I think...

 

But then again, the Baseball draft is probably the hardest to project.

It's difficult to project exactly where each player goes, but unless there's a legitimate reason for his status drop on June 7th Smoker isn't falling to 29.

 

Mayo's mock draft appears a bit off to me on first glance. First, Scherzer has already signed with Arizona. Next, NO WAY Schmidt is taken 10th overall. Arrieta likely won't be taken at 18, Noonan is slated more for the sandwich round, Brackman's stock is plummeting, Withthrow (selection for the White Sox) is not the type of pitcher you take this early, and Minnesota is associated more with Middlebrooks than Kozma.

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QUOTE(BearSox @ May 31, 2007 -> 09:03 PM)
Also, an intriguing guy later on would be Chris Carpenter from Kent. He is likely to fall due to injury problems, but he has good fastball and a really good slider. He right now is a starter, but to keep him healthy, he might be better of going into the bullpen.

I saw Carpenter tonight against Mizzou and his final line doesn't tell the story (5 IP, 6 R, 5 K, 4 BB, 6 hits). He dominated the first time through the order and has good movement on his pitches. The second time around the lack of control he has demonstrated this season showed through as he started to get behind in counts and walked a couple in the 6th where he got rocked. There were a lot of scouts with guns checking him out and I missed out on his velocity, but it looked fast lol. He really makes you understand the term 'projectable arm'. He has great stuff, but needs a lot of work in his game. If a Major League club thinks they can fix his control, they really got something, and it's possible he might project as a reliever but I was definitely impressed with his stuff. His slider definitely was a very good pitch. I wouldn't mind the Sox taking a shot at him somewhere in the 3rd-5th round range, 2nd might be a bit of a reach unless he throws 96-97 with regularity which I doubt.

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