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Uribe Re-signed


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QUOTE(29andPoplar @ Nov 6, 2007 -> 08:48 AM)
How do you figure Greene is a significantly better hitter than Wilson?

 

I'm not a huge stats guy, but Wilson is a career .269 hitter, trending up. Greene is .254 for his career. Their walk rate is basically the same. Greene strikes out a ton more than Wilson. Their career on base % is identical.

Holy crap, I just looked, and he's actually right. Greene's OPS last year was .759, and his career best is .795. Wilson put up a .790 last year, and has a career high of .794. Greene has kept his above .700 most years, and yeah there's the Petco difference, but yowza. Greene did put up a .841 away from Petco last year, which is something, but the quesiton is how much you trust home/away splits to determine what a guy will do when you move him.

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QUOTE(29andPoplar @ Nov 6, 2007 -> 10:48 AM)
How do you figure Greene is a significantly better hitter than Wilson?

 

I'm not a huge stats guy, but Wilson is a career .269 hitter, trending up. Greene is .254 for his career. Their walk rate is basically the same. Greene strikes out a ton more than Wilson. Their career on base % is identical.

If you're looking at their career lines then you'll notice a near 70 point difference in SLG and a 22 point difference in OPS+ (HUGE) both in Greene's favor.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Nov 6, 2007 -> 10:57 AM)
Holy crap, I just looked, and he's actually right. Greene's OPS last year was .759, and his career best is .795. Wilson put up a .790 last year, and has a career high of .794. Greene has kept his above .700 most years, and yeah there's the Petco difference, but yowza. Greene did put up a .841 away from Petco last year, which is something, but the quesiton is how much you trust home/away splits to determine what a guy will do when you move him.

 

There is a slight difference in the level of competition within their divisions. Green had to face significantly better pitching in the NL West versus what Wilson faced in the NL Central. The parks in the West are larger parks, pitching oriented versus the NL Central parks.

 

I dont know if I like either, but I like them more than the human torque engine in Uribe.

 

 

 

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QUOTE(29andPoplar @ Nov 6, 2007 -> 04:48 PM)
How do you figure Greene is a significantly better hitter than Wilson?

 

I'm not a huge stats guy, but Wilson is a career .269 hitter, trending up. Greene is .254 for his career. Their walk rate is basically the same. Greene strikes out a ton more than Wilson. Their career on base % is identical.

 

I guess I'm just very impressed with Greene when I watch him hit. I think he could easily be a 30-35 homer hitter with superb defense. However, I just talked with someone who's at the meetings, and he doesn't think Greene will be traded. I am intrigued though seeing a new guy at SS that might be able to help us against tough lefties, instead of seeing Uribe K on changeups in the dirt or popping up on the right side of the infield.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Nov 6, 2007 -> 10:57 AM)
Holy crap, I just looked, and he's actually right. Greene's OPS last year was .759, and his career best is .795. Wilson put up a .790 last year, and has a career high of .794. Greene has kept his above .700 most years, and yeah there's the Petco difference, but yowza. Greene did put up a .841 away from Petco last year, which is something, but the quesiton is how much you trust home/away splits to determine what a guy will do when you move him.

 

Here's another interesting comparison...

 

Wilson's career splits for home/away are...

 

BA/OPB/OPS - Home

.281/.324/.707

 

BA/OPB/OPS - Away

.256/.300/.671

 

 

Greene's career splits...

 

BA/OPB/OPS - Home

.228/.288/.659

 

BA/OPB/OPS - Away

.280/.335/.849

 

 

Uribe's career splits...

 

BA/OPB/OPS - Home

.273/.315/.804

 

BA/OPB/OPS - Away

.235/.275/.641

 

 

Edited by scenario
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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Nov 6, 2007 -> 10:57 AM)
Holy crap, I just looked, and he's actually right. Greene's OPS last year was .759, and his career best is .795. Wilson put up a .790 last year, and has a career high of .794. Greene has kept his above .700 most years, and yeah there's the Petco difference, but yowza. Greene did put up a .841 away from Petco last year, which is something, but the quesiton is how much you trust home/away splits to determine what a guy will do when you move him.

It's more about consistency. Jack Wilson has been in the league for 6 full seasons in 4 of those seasons he posted an OPS+ in the 70's or lower the other 2 were above 100.

 

Khalil Greene has 4 full seasons 2 of them he posted a mid 90's OPS+, another was an even 100 and his first full season was 114.

 

IMO there's a HUGE difference offensively between the two.

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QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Nov 6, 2007 -> 11:05 AM)
Considering what it would cost to get any of these 2, I would prefer bringing Uribe back playing for a contract. He has a lot of ability. The White Sox need a major upgrade at SS, or I don't see the purpose.

 

The more money Uribe has made, the worse his bat has gotten. He has also been getting larger over the last few years. His ability is worthless is he doesnt have drive to work and make himself better.

 

 

 

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QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Nov 6, 2007 -> 05:05 PM)
Considering what it would cost to get any of these 2, I would prefer bringing Uribe back playing for a contract. He has a lot of ability. The White Sox need a major upgrade at SS, or I don't see the purpose.

 

With that in mind, I hope that KW doesn't think that bringing in a new SS and CF is going to turn this team's fortunes around. We better be looking to upgrade our bench as well.

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Jack Wilson - career OPS+ 79, career high is 105

Khalil Greene - career OPS+ 101, career high is 114

 

If Jack Wilson isn't hitting .295+, he's a pretty terrible hitter. If Khalil Greene hits even about .250, he's a pretty average hitter, and when he hits .270+, he's an above average shortstop offensively.

 

Add to it that Greene is also younger, cheaper, and if I read correctly, around longer, and the more attractive option is obvious.

 

However, price also has to be brought into the equation. Greene is almost assuredly going to cost Garland plus some, whereas Wilson may come much cheaper than that (though giving any of the organization's top 5 prospects would likely be a bad deal). It really depends on what the market holds.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Nov 6, 2007 -> 10:57 AM)
Holy crap, I just looked, and he's actually right. Greene's OPS last year was .759, and his career best is .795. Wilson put up a .790 last year, and has a career high of .794. Greene has kept his above .700 most years, and yeah there's the Petco difference, but yowza. Greene did put up a .841 away from Petco last year, which is something, but the quesiton is how much you trust home/away splits to determine what a guy will do when you move him.

 

OPS+ adjusts for park effects. 100 is league average

 

Jack Wilson career OPS+ 79 since 01 (40, 67, 70, 104, 74, 77, 105)

 

Khalil Greene career OPS+ 101 since 04 (114, 95, 97, 100)

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QUOTE(fathom @ Nov 6, 2007 -> 11:08 AM)
With that in mind, I hope that KW doesn't think that bringing in a new SS and CF is going to turn this team's fortunes around. We better be looking to upgrade our bench as well.

What's weird is, it seemed like the club had one of the best benches in baseball in 2006 - Mack, Ozuna, Cintron, Gload and Alomar. But with Ozuna's injury, Gload gone, Mack being traded, Alomar replaced by Hall and Cintron inexplicably falling apart... they suddenly had one of the worst benches in baseball in 2007 with the likes of Gonzalez, Hall, Terrero, Molina, etc.

 

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If you're looking at their career lines then you'll notice a near 70 point difference in SLG and a 22 point difference in OPS+ (HUGE) both in Greene's favor.

 

It really depends what kind of hitter you want from that spot as well. If you want the guy who can provide more pop, Greene is your guy. A lot of those doubles would likely be HR's at the Cell.

 

However, the K's stick out to me, and with Guillen wanting to reduce K's in the lineup ... Wilson does a lot better in that dept. I like the higher average hitters who get their bat on the ball, but what I think doesn't matter. What matters is what type of fit the White Sox want. It is becoming clear they want the anti-Uribe in terms of plate performance. No pun intended.

 

I believe Greene is the better defensive player, just from my own eyes.

 

Although I feel Greene would cost more to get vs. Wilson.

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 6, 2007 -> 05:19 PM)
What's weird is, it seemed like the club had one of the best benches in baseball in 2006 - Mack, Ozuna, Cintron, Gload and Alomar. But with Ozuna's injury, Gload gone, Mack being traded, Alomar replaced by Hall and Cintron inexplicably falling apart... they suddenly had one of the worst benches in baseball in 2007 with the likes of Gonzalez, Hall, Terrero, Molina, etc.

 

Well, that's also because our minor league system is so thin, especially offensively. I thought the team did a terrible job of utilizing the DL for guys like Cintron last year.

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 6, 2007 -> 11:19 AM)
What's weird is, it seemed like the club had one of the best benches in baseball in 2006 - Mack, Ozuna, Cintron, Gload and Alomar. But with Ozuna's injury, Gload gone, Mack being traded, Alomar replaced by Hall and Cintron inexplicably falling apart... they suddenly had one of the worst benches in baseball in 2007 with the likes of Gonzalez, Hall, Terrero, Molina, etc.

 

And subtract versatile dependable replacements like Timo and Willie Harris from the year before-and it makes you wonder what the plan was?

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QUOTE(Tony82087 @ Nov 6, 2007 -> 05:38 PM)
Thats awful. I would rather have Uribe for one more year, have him in a contract year than be locked into a slightly better player for 2009.

 

Yeah, that's quite ugly. For that amount of money, we really should have gone after Renteria then if we're serious about Wilson.

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Yeah, that's quite ugly. For that amount of money, we really should have gone after Renteria then if we're serious about Wilson.

 

Well they didn't match up with the Braves (see your 100% accurate farm system comments).

 

Unfortunately the SS market looks rather thin. There are red flags with most who are available, and the good young ones under control are guys teams want to keep or would cost a ton in talent.

 

As a result sometimes teams have to look at incremental improvements. Just to focus on Wilson for a second. I would say he's an upgrade over Uribe. If he can be had in exchange for some non essential pieces, it's worth it. They have the money and the extra $1.5M in 2008 plus the 2009 guaranteed+buyout won't hamstring them.

 

Also as you say, re-doing the bench is critical.

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