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Dayn Perry hates the White Sox!


Gene Honda Civic
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Im kind of tired of hearing we cant compete... there is no reason to believe that we arent every bit as good as the tigers and indians...

 

just look at this side by side of the rosters

 

C: V. Martinez > Pudge > AJP

 

1B: KOnerko > C. Guillen > Garko

 

2B: Polanco > Richar/Uribe > A. Cabrera

 

SS: Renteria => OCab > Perlata

 

3b: MCab > Fields/Crede > C. Blake

 

LF: Quenten = M. Thames > J. Michaels

 

CF: Sizemore > Granderson = Swisher

 

RF: Magglio > Dye > F. Gutierrez

 

DH: Hafner = Sheffield => Thome

 

#1 SP: Sabathia > Verlander => Buerhle

#2: Carmona > Vasquez = Bonderman

#3: Willis = Byrd = Contreras

#4 & 5: Rogers/NRob > Westbrook/Laffey = Danks/Floyd

 

CL: Jenks > T Jones > Borowski

BP: Cleve > WSox > Tigers (without Zumaya)

 

think of it this way... cleveland gets way too much credit for having an offense that is far inferior to both the sox and tigers. The tigers lost their best bullpen piece, and have just as many questions about their rotation as we do. Willis is going to be god aweful in the AL. The tigers offense is absolutely massive, but i think ours can be just as good if some key guys simply return to their career averages (dye, Konerko, AJP) and swisher's BA is going to rise 20 points in the Cell (oakland has that HUMONGOUS foul territory remember). If beurhle ad vasquez pitch like they can, contreras is average, and danks and floyd dont absolutely kill us we can stay with these guys. dont just throw in the towel b/c of what some biased writer says. the yankees are paper champs every year and when was the last time they won?

Edited by Fantl916
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This is actually one of Dayne's better columns, IMHO. At least he acknowledges that SOME improvement has been made.

 

I guess I just wish, however, that one national columnist would point out that so many of our guys underperformed last season, making the 72-90 record somewhat of a mirage. I know Sherman has stated we are "underrated." But I want to hear some more people acknowledge our improvement.

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Let's see....Joe Borowski is the Cleveland closer and ummm....Todd Jones is the Detroit closer ? No way we can compete with that.

 

Detroit's pitching could truly be worse than the Sox pitching was last year if a few things go wrong. That bullpen is particularly vulnerable and after Verlander, who in their rotation scares anybody ? Rogers,Bonderman,Willis and Robertson ?

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QUOTE(iamshack @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 05:41 PM)
This is actually one of Dayne's better columns, IMHO. At least he acknowledges that SOME improvement has been made.

 

I guess I just wish, however, that one national columnist would point out that so many of our guys underperformed last season, making the 72-90 record somewhat of a mirage. I know Sherman has stated we are "underrated." But I want to hear some more people acknowledge our improvement.

That's the problem, they underperformed your expectations, not their career norms.

 

Thome and Konerko were right on their career averages. JD had 20 points shaved off AVG/OBP. Pierzynski was below his career average, as he has been in every season since he left Minnesota. He's just not the same player anymore, and a terrible guy to extend a year before his contract was up. I'd argue that last season is about all we should expect out of AJ for the next 3 years... Crede was terrible, you've got one there, but he's not gonna be around. Iguchi's power was down, but he was only around for half a year... And Peter Pan and Tinkerbell performed exactly how any rational fan expected.

 

Buehrle, Garland, and Vazquez pitched well (and Garland's not around anymore)... Contreras is the only one in the rotation who had a poor season.

 

The bullpen was terrible, but they're volitile and had a bunch of young guys without much in way of track records.

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#4 & 5: Rogers/NRob > Westbrook/Laffey = Danks/Floyd

 

This line alone is the difference maker....remember when we couldn't buy a win out of a 5th starter.... Nate Robertson and Kenny Rodgers, either one would be our #3 over count

 

#3: Willis = Byrd = Contreras - these guys are the wild card guys in the rotation for each team, I would guess if one of these guys steps up and is a stud it puts their team over the top. Considering Contreras/Byrd are on their downslope I would guess it is not either of them and Willis will enjoy pitching in Detroit with a beast of a lineup behind him.

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QUOTE(Fantl916 @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 09:28 PM)
1B: KOnerko > C. Guillen > Garko

 

Not according to last year. Considering age, it's more like:

 

Guillen > Konerko = Garko

 

2B: Polanco > Richar/Uribe > A. Cabrera

 

Nope:

 

Polanco > Cabrera > Richar/Uribe

 

SS: Renteria => OCab > Perlata

 

The OC is probably the worst here, too, based on age, although in his defense, The OC is probably the best defender.

 

CF: Sizemore > Granderson = Swisher

 

I'd guess Swisher is probably the worst of the group (no slight on Swisher, either). He has a chance to be the best hitter of the group, but he's also going to be the worst defender (by what will most likely be a wide margin) as well as the worst baserunner.

 

DH: Hafner = Sheffield => Thome

 

Cripes -- what can Thome do to catch a break in this city? How could you even ponder putting Sheffield ahead of Thome? Heck -- so long as he stays relatively healthy (which is probably a pretty big "if" -- he has a good shot at being better than Hafner, too.

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QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 04:53 PM)
That's the problem, they underperformed your expectations, not their career norms.

 

Thome and Konerko were right on their career averages. JD had 20 points shaved off AVG/OBP. Pierzynski was below his career average, as he has been in every season since he left Minnesota. He's just not the same player anymore, and a terrible guy to extend a year before his contract was up. I'd argue that last season is about all we should expect out of AJ for the next 3 years... Crede was terrible, you've got one there, but he's not gonna be around. Iguchi's power was down, but he was only around for half a year... And Peter Pan and Tinkerbell performed exactly how any rational fan expected.

 

Buehrle, Garland, and Vazquez pitched well (and Garland's not around anymore)... Contreras is the only one in the rotation who had a poor season.

 

The bullpen was terrible, but they're volitile and had a bunch of young guys without much in way of track records.

 

Well, in my opinion Konerko and Dye underperformed. Crede was out for most of the year. Iguchi did not perform well, and our not being in contention was part of why he was traded and we had Richar's production.

 

You can claim that our players played to their "career" averages all you want, but with many in their "peak years" in a hitter friendly ballpark (where there "career" averages were not compiled), I'll argue to the end of the earth with you that what we got out of most of our offense was on par with what is expected of them at this stage of their careers in this ballpark.

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well let me see exactly what perry said in his column....

 

we improved this offseason, but not enough to catch the tigers or indians, and we have a downright pathetic minor league system with little hope of adding quality impact players the old fashioned way and that will likely doom our chances of competing with this team....

 

 

seems pretty accurate to me

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QUOTE(iamshack @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 06:29 PM)
Well, in my opinion Konerko and Dye underperformed. Crede was out for most of the year. Iguchi did not perform well, and our not being in contention was part of why he was traded and we had Richar's production.

 

You can claim that our players played to their "career" averages all you want, but with many in their "peak years" in a hitter friendly ballpark (where there "career" averages were not compiled), I'll argue to the end of the earth with you that what we got out of most of our offense was on par with what is expected of them at this stage of their careers in this ballpark.

Name a Sox hitter last year who was in his "peak years" last year...

 

They've got a bunch of over 30 talent, which is declining exactly as you'd expect over 30 players to decline.

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Just on Dye and Konerko, I think they've got at least 1 good offensive season left in them.

 

Can someone post Dye's post ASB splits, I think they were pretty decent IIRC, after he re-signed and going thru all of the trade rumors.

 

Yes they're getting older, but for both it was their worst season at the Cell (when especially for Dye the move from Oakland to Chicago really improved his numbers).

 

I'd expect at least a little improvement from him. Konerko probably also. As for Thome, well I'd expect him to decline, just because of his age.

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QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 06:17 PM)
Just on Dye and Konerko, I think they've got at least 1 good offensive season left in them.

 

Can someone post Dye's post ASB splits, I think they were pretty decent IIRC, after he re-signed and going thru all of the trade rumors.

 

Yes they're getting older, but for both it was their worst season at the Cell (when especially for Dye the move from Oakland to Chicago really improved his numbers).

 

I'd expect at least a little improvement from him. Konerko probably also. As for Thome, well I'd expect him to decline, just because of his age.

242 AB, 20 2B, 16 HR, .298/.368/.579/.947

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QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 04:17 PM)
Can someone post Dye's post ASB splits, I think they were pretty decent IIRC, after he re-signed and going thru all of the trade rumors.

The big problem for JD, IIRC, was that he was basically on 1 leg for the first half last year.

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QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 06:08 PM)
Name a Sox hitter last year who was in his "peak years" last year...

 

They've got a bunch of over 30 talent, which is declining exactly as you'd expect over 30 players to decline.

 

Well, to me, an average player's "peak" is between the age of 27-34, but obviously it varies by position and skill set.

 

Well, Konerko was 31 last season, with not exactly the type of skill set you'd expect would deteriorate quickly after the age of 30 (leave aside this "arthritic hip condition" that there is absolutely no evidence is affecting him any way as of yet).

 

Jermaine was 33, and while I'll concede that he is beginning his decline as a defensive player, he came off an mvp-type season offensively in 06', and his age certainly shouldn't be hindering him offensively as much as you suggest- just look at Jim Thome for an example of how a power-producing player can perform well past the age of 30.

 

Iguchi was 32 and his OPS pre-ASB dropped 58 points from the previous season.

 

Crede obviously missed most of his age-29 season.

 

I'm sure you'll argue most players begin declining at age 30, but given the advances in modern sports medicine, along with better conditioning and strengthening techniques, there are plenty of ballplayers producing well into their-mid-to-late thirties, some even having career seasons at the age of 32, 33, 34. See Dye in 06', Hunter in 07', etc, etc.

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And that shows how important it is to get off to at least a somewhat decent start. He's a notorious slow starter, but he really fires up in the 2nd half of the season when the weather is a lot warmer (probably the same for all of our hitters really).

 

I think he'll put up around an .825-.850 OPS though, which is pretty good. An he's got the potential for more, as shown by those splits before.

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i pretty much agree with perry's take. i think the sox have unquestionably gotten better this offseason, but there are two teams in their division, and four in the american league who will be appreciably better, on paper at least. now, i'll allow that unexpected things can happen and i hope they will, but i just have a hard time seeing this team win the division, let alone the al.

 

but i will give kw credit. he's made a few moves this offseason (particularly swisher, quentin, and ramirez) that brought pretty strong young talent into the organization. all those guys have favorable contract situations and if they pan out the moves could look very shrewd. or, we could all spend all of next offseason b****ing, too.

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QUOTE(iamshack @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 06:29 PM)
Well, in my opinion Konerko and Dye underperformed. Crede was out for most of the year. Iguchi did not perform well, and our not being in contention was part of why he was traded and we had Richar's production.

 

You can claim that our players played to their "career" averages all you want, but with many in their "peak years" in a hitter friendly ballpark (where there "career" averages were not compiled), I'll argue to the end of the earth with you that what we got out of most of our offense was on par with what is expected of them at this stage of their careers in this ballpark.

PK and Dye did underperform. Compare PK's '08 season to the previous three (roof removed). Both had BABIP below average and lowest in several years. Konerko missed his ZiPS OPS by over 60 points and Dye missed his by over 100.

Edited by 3E8
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A few age related notes...

 

Sheffield is almost 2 years older than Thome.

 

Carlos Guillen is 6 months older than Konerko.

 

Magglio is the exact same age (born on the same day) as Dye.

 

So... why is it that our old guys are supposed to have age-related performance decreases, but Detroit's older guys won't?

 

 

Plus... Polanco is 32; Renteria is 32; Jacque Jones is turning 33; Pudge is 36; Wilson - their backup catcher is 35; Kenny Rogers is 43; and this spring Todd Jones will turn 40....

 

 

And OUR team is 'old'? LOL.

Edited by scenario
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Scenario...that is an interesting moniker. are you a moderator on another White Sox message board?

 

i assume people would look at chicago's old players in a more positive light if those same people believed chicago was capable of contending for a ring like the detroit tigers are.

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QUOTE(DonnyDevito @ Jan 31, 2008 -> 04:19 PM)
Scenario...that is an interesting moniker. are you a moderator on another White Sox message board?

 

Thanks. Yes. I'm an admin on the Sox scout.com site.

Edited by scenario
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Detroits old players were better than our old players last year. I do agree with you that there is a chance that Detroit is overrated if Sheffield continues his decline and Renteria stumbles back in the AL. That said, they have the best young hitter in the game now so I think the offense will be fine. I think that many in this thread would feel the the same way I do: we are philosophically opposed to how the WHite Sox construct a team. They do it on the corners and not up the middle. They do it with a win now mentality with a budget that does not match. The drafts have been conservative because JR got burned by Joe Borchard and won't go above slot to piss off his pal Bud again.

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