Indiana / North Carolina primary election thread

[southsider2k5]

Latest NC Polls:

Rasmussen... 04/28 - 04/28... Obama +14.0

SurveyUSA... 04/26 - 04/28... Obama +5.0

Insider Advantage... 04/29 - 04/29... Clinton +2.0

Mason-Dixon... 04/28 - 04/29... Obama +7.0

 

A side note- this form the poll that has Clinton +2: �Our polling generally does not indicate the eventual compression of black voters that Obama usually enjoys just before Election Day." Pesky black people. they get in the way of good polling.

 

Green or not, that really racism really isn't a funny joke.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Green or not, that really racism really isn't a funny joke.

my apologies. I removed that. My point is that i find it odd that they release this poll and kind of shrug off the black vote.

[Gregory Pratt]

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politi..._hint_at_c.html

 

A bevy of new national polls, plus surveys in Indiana and North Carolina -- which hold key primaries on Tuesday -- suggest that Hillary Clinton is closing the gap since her campaign-saving victory in Pennsylvania last week, and that the controversies dogging Barack Obama are having an impact.

 

In a national Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, Clinton leads Obama 44 percent to 41 percent. The Illinois senator is viewed unfavorably by 42 percent of all voters, up 9 percentage points since February. Clinton's unfavorable rating is still slightly higher than Obama's, but it has dropped slightly. And by 10 percentage points, Democrats now view Clinton as likelier than Obama to beat presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. Democrats gave Obama a 4-point edge last month.

 

In a national NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, Obama's lead has narrowed to 46 percent to 43 percent, and his unfavorable ratings have also risen. In March, 51 percent of voters viewed him positively and 28 percent saw him negatively, but in the new poll 46 percent view him favorably, but 37 percent negatively.

 

In a national New York Times/CBS poll, Obama leads 46 percent to 38 percent among Democrats, but 51 percent say they believe he will be the eventual nominee, down from 69 percent a month ago. And 48 percent of Democratic primary voters said they believe he would be the strongest candidate against McCain, down from 56 percent a month ago.

 

And in a Quinnipiac University poll, Clinton runs stronger than Obama in match-ups against McCain in the general election swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Clinton would get 49 percent to McCain's 41 percent in Florida, leads 48 percent to 38 percent in Ohio, and 51 percent to 37 percent in Pennsylvania.

 

Obama is statistically tied with McCain in Florida and Ohio, while leading him in Pennsylvania by 47 percent to 38 percent, according to the poll.

 

The polls were being conducted as Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., was making a series of highly publicized speeches and as Obama repudiated him.

 

In North Carolina, a new WRAL-TV poll says that Obama's lead has narrowed to 49 percent to 42 percent, down from double digits in most prior polling.

 

In Indiana, where the race had been a toss-up in surveys last week, Clinton now leads in the three most recent polls. She is ahead 46 percent to 41 percent in a Rasmussen survey, 50 percent to 42 percent in Public Polling Policy survey, and 52 percent to 43 percent in a SurveyUSA poll.

[NorthSideSox72]

What is odd to me about these NC and IN polls is how all over the place they are. I cannot remember a state where the results of polls from reputable organizations (not Zogby or ARG), and virtually the same time, had such a wide swath. I mean, just looking at polls this week, North Carolina ranges from Obama +14 (which would be a jump up) to Clinton +2 (which would be a HUGE jump for her), and Indiana ranges from Obama +3 to Clinton +9. Trying to determine a trend from those is nearly impossible.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

What is odd to me about these NC and IN polls is how all over the place they are. I cannot remember a state where the results of polls from reputable organizations (not Zogby or ARG), and virtually the same time, had such a wide swath. I mean, just looking at polls this week, North Carolina ranges from Obama +14 (which would be a jump up) to Clinton +2 (which would be a HUGE jump for her), and Indiana ranges from Obama +3 to Clinton +9. Trying to determine a trend from those is nearly impossible.

I stick with SurveyUSA. They have been the most reliable this entire campaign season.

 

They have Obama +5 in NC and Clinton +9 in IN.

Edited May 1, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[HuskyCaucasian]

Quick side note: how is margin or error determined?

[southsider2k5]

What is odd to me about these NC and IN polls is how all over the place they are. I cannot remember a state where the results of polls from reputable organizations (not Zogby or ARG), and virtually the same time, had such a wide swath. I mean, just looking at polls this week, North Carolina ranges from Obama +14 (which would be a jump up) to Clinton +2 (which would be a HUGE jump for her), and Indiana ranges from Obama +3 to Clinton +9. Trying to determine a trend from those is nearly impossible.

 

Like I said about Indiana depending on what part of the state they are talking to, they will get hugely different responses. I don't know if they balance geography or not when they do these polls.

[StrangeSox]

Quick side note: how is margin or error determined?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error

 

[southsider2k5]

Anyways, here is my night with the President, for anyone who is interested...

 

http://www.citybythelake.org/forums/index....post&p=9358

[NorthSideSox72]

Anyways, here is my night with the President, for anyone who is interested...

 

http://www.citybythelake.org/forums/index....post&p=9358

Cool man, thanks. Neat experience.

 

[Heads22]

Official Heads Predictions:

 

NC: Obama +8

IN: Hilldog +3

[BigSqwert]

Prediction:

 

NC: Obama +11

IN: Obama +2

[Steve9347]

Prediction:

NC Obama +8

IN Obama +3

 

Hillary bows out while nodding/clapping, and then everyone talks about the "dream ticket" that will never happen.

[NorthSideSox72]

I really can't see Obama taking Indiana - but I do think he'll make it interesting. I'll pretty much stick with my previous predictions...

 

NC (115 delegates): Obama +10

IN (72 delegates): Clinton +4

 

And if you do the math on that, more or less, that day will give Obama +8 or +9 delegates, which pretty much wipes out the 10 points that Clinton gained in PA.

 

Clinton, though, will fight on. More supers will continue to endorse, and probably keep doing so in the same way they have been recently - which is to say, heavily to Obama. At the current pace (they are already only about 10 apart on supers), Obama will pass Clinton in superdelegates right around the time of the WV primary (5/13). But a wide victory in WV will give Clinton enough "momentum" to stay in it anyway. On 5/20, Obama will win the caucus in OR handily, and Clinton will do the same in KY. The pledged delegate lead for Obama will stay steady at around 150, but he will continue building a lead in supers.

 

There are three primaries in June. PR (6/1) is 55 delegates and Clinton will win handily, probably netting herself 5 to 10 delegates. Obama will take MT (16) and SD (15) (on 6/3) by a wide margin, and gain a couple or four back. But after all this, the facts will remain obvious - Obama will lead in pledged delegates by 150-ish, in superdelegates by a handful, in popular vote and in states won. Behind closed doors, Edwards will be promised a job in the adminstration as AG or sec of HUD or something like that, resulting in him granting his super vote and his 20-some-odd delegates to Obama. At this point, a waterfall of supers will begin to endorse Obama, and he will clinch the nomination by mid-June, averting a convention disaster.

 

In late June or July, Obama will announce Bill Richardson as his VP choice.

 

That's my story, and I'm stickin' to it.

 

[kapkomet]

I really can't see Obama taking Indiana - but I do think he'll make it interesting. I'll pretty much stick with my previous predictions...

 

NC (115 delegates): Obama +10

IN (72 delegates): Clinton +4

 

And if you do the math on that, more or less, that day will give Obama +8 or +9 delegates, which pretty much wipes out the 10 points that Clinton gained in PA.

 

Clinton, though, will fight on. More supers will continue to endorse, and probably keep doing so in the same way they have been recently - which is to say, heavily to Obama. At the current pace (they are already only about 10 apart on supers), Obama will pass Clinton in superdelegates right around the time of the WV primary (5/13). But a wide victory in WV will give Clinton enough "momentum" to stay in it anyway. On 5/20, Obama will win the caucus in OR handily, and Clinton will do the same in KY. The pledged delegate lead for Obama will stay steady at around 150, but he will continue building a lead in supers.

 

There are three primaries in June. PR (6/1) is 55 delegates and Clinton will win handily, probably netting herself 5 to 10 delegates. Obama will take MT (16) and SD (15) (on 6/3) by a wide margin, and gain a couple or four back. But after all this, the facts will remain obvious - Obama will lead in pledged delegates by 150-ish, in superdelegates by a handful, in popular vote and in states won. Behind closed doors, Edwards will be promised a job in the adminstration as AG or sec of HUD or something like that, resulting in him granting his super vote and his 20-some-odd delegates to Obama. At this point, a waterfall of supers will begin to endorse Obama, and he will clinch the nomination by mid-June, averting a convention disaster.

 

In late June or July, Obama will announce Bill Richardson as his VP choice.

 

That's my story, and I'm stickin' to it.

 

 

okie dokie, Nostradamus.

 

Clinton RULEZ!

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

okie dokie, Nostradamus.

 

Clinton RULEZ!

Well, we might have to dig this post up again come July. Its more likely I'll look like Nostra-dumbass. But I guess we'll see.

 

[kapkomet]

There's a lot of pundits out there that say the Obama cracks have finally appeared enough to warrant another looksie from the superdelegates.

 

But of course, that's what they want you to believe.

 

As far as tomorrow,

 

Obama +6 in NC (which is a win for Hilldog)

 

and

 

Clinton +6 in Indiana.

 

There's too many rednecks in Indiana for Obama to overcome.

[HuskyCaucasian]

SurveyUSA- Clinton +12 in Indiana

No SurveyUSA NC poll

[Steve9347]

SurveyUSA- Clinton +12 in Indiana

No SurveyUSA NC poll

Never know what to believe, the SunTimes this morning had an article claiming that Indiana was Obama's to lose.

 

link

Edited May 5, 2008 by Steve9347

[NorthSideSox72]

Never know what to believe, the SunTimes this morning had an article claiming that Indiana was Obama's to lose.

 

link

The polls for these two states have been more whacked out and all over the place than any other states that I can recall. There are IN polls for the last couple days that range from Obama +2 to Clinton +12.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

Never know what to believe, the SunTimes this morning had an article claiming that Indiana was Obama's to lose.

 

link

The Clinton Camp is also asking why cant he win IN? An Obama internal document projected a 7 point win there back in February.

Why does that projection still not stand? It was made in FEBRUARY!!

[HuskyCaucasian]

Never know what to believe, the SunTimes this morning had an article claiming that Indiana was Obama's to lose.

 

link

Zogby has him +2 in Indiana, but they have been inaccurate. BUT, they nailed PA. So, go figure.

[HuskyCaucasian]

SurveyUSA- Clinton +12 in Indiana

No SurveyUSA NC poll

SurveyUSA: Obama +5 in NC

[fathom]

If it does go the way SurveyUSA projects, I assume that will be a bad night for Obama supporters? All along, I've thought that Obama needs to win NC by a greater percentage than Hillary winning Indiana in order to stop some of the momentum she's picked up.

[NorthSideSox72]

If it does go the way SurveyUSA projects, I assume that will be a bad night for Obama supporters? All along, I've thought that Obama needs to win NC by a greater percentage than Hillary winning Indiana in order to stop some of the momentum she's picked up.

If Obama wins NC by 5 or 10, and Hillary wins IN by 5 or 10, then its two things. In terms of perception, that's a small win for Hillary (she had a 20 point lead in IN at one point). But in terms of delegates, that means Obama nets more, possibly wiping out Clinton's gains in PA, because NC has more delegates at stake than IN. So, take it any way you want.