Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
southsider2k5

Indiana / North Carolina primary election thread

Recommended Posts

QUOTE (KipWellsFan @ May 6, 2008 -> 06:56 PM)
They'll call it for Clinton soon enough.

They will. It just won't end up in the double digits. None of this really matters anyway b/c Obama is going to win NC as expected so the worst thing that can happen for him is he doesn't gain enough ground. It'll all be up to the superdelegates after this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 6, 2008 -> 05:57 PM)
Probably true...but I'd still live with "Closer than expected in IN" being the result, because it's a delegate fight.

 

Yah, I think this is probably a decent night for Obama.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Obama is outperforming in counties he's supposed to lose hard in Indiana. With no results in Lake, Porter and St. Joe counties, plus no results near Evansville.... we're looking at half of Obama's support in the state.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
QUOTE (Rex Kicka** @ May 6, 2008 -> 04:07 PM)
Obama is outperforming in counties he's supposed to lose hard in Indiana. With no results in Lake, Porter and St. Joe counties, plus no results near Evansville.... we're looking at half of Obama's support in the state.

Which is why they haven't called it yet.

 

Thanks, home. Seriously, we appreciate this. Thanks a ton.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, Obama kicking butt in North Carolina. Up 30% with 11% reporting.

Edited by KipWellsFan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the stations are waiting to call Indiana until the "Lake Michigan" aka "Chicago Market" counties report. CNN has NONE of them reporting anything yet. Kieth Olbermann said on MSNBC it is too EARLY, not necessarily too CLOSE to call.

Edited by Athomeboy_2000

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ May 6, 2008 -> 03:54 PM)
MSNBC is reporting that there has been a HUGE turn out in HEAVY (75% republican) republican districts. So huge the turn out is bigger than in the 2004 presidential election! No one is really sure how this will work it self out. Might be centrist republicans going to Obama. Could be far right trying to keep "Rev. Wright" out of the White House. no one is sure yet.

 

 

QUOTE (knightni @ May 6, 2008 -> 05:08 PM)
CNN/AOL both have Clinton up by 14-18% in Indiana.

 

I told you guys that the crossover vote against Obama would be huge in Indiana. One interesting, completely unscientific polling I did with people I knew from different towns along the South Shore train route was that people in predominantly white towns did not get contacted by the Obama campaign, while those in predominately minority communities did. Racial profiling anyone? Just a thought.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:43 PM)
I think the stations are waiting to call Indiana until the "Lake Michigan" aka "Chicago Market" counties report. CNN has NONE of them reporting anything yet. Kieth Olbermann said on MSNBC it is too EARLY, not necessarily too CLOSE to call.

I dunno about Lake/Porter/Laporte but looking at the map right now it seems like he's underperforming there, at least from what I expected. But he's doing strong really close to Indianapolis which I didn't expect.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:43 PM)
I think the stations are waiting to call Indiana until the "Lake Michigan" aka "Chicago Market" counties report. CNN has NONE of them reporting anything yet. Kieth Olbermann said on MSNBC it is too EARLY, not necessarily too CLOSE to call.

 

The lead is down to 6 points now... and it's all Obamaland left to come in...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If I did my math right....

if you factor out "republican" votes and only look at Democratic and Independent voters... Clinton wins 51.44 - 48.56 (+2.88).

That compares to 52.2 - 47.25 (+4.95)

 

Interesting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
QUOTE (lostfan @ May 6, 2008 -> 04:59 PM)
I dunno about Lake/Porter/Laporte but looking at the map right now it seems like he's underperforming there, at least from what I expected. But he's doing strong really close to Indianapolis which I didn't expect.

Only a tiny amount have been counted in Porter, Lake and Laporte have nothing in so far according to CNN.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
QUOTE (Rex Kicka** @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:00 PM)
The lead is down to 6 points now... and it's all Obamaland left to come in...

49,169 votes between them right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
QUOTE (lostfan @ May 6, 2008 -> 07:59 PM)
I dunno about Lake/Porter/Laporte but looking at the map right now it seems like he's underperforming there, at least from what I expected. But he's doing strong really close to Indianapolis which I didn't expect.

 

Like I said a couple of weeks ago, this is big union territory, which is big time Clinton demographics here. It doesn't surprise me at all. They have by far the best orgaization for getting out votes, as they have been doing it for something like a century here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's now been an hour since CBS called it for Clinton in IN but no other network has done so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just did some simple county math. Obama's down about 45,000 votes right now. From what is left around Indy, he's got about 18,000 or so more votes coming in those areas if you assume that his margin stays the same and each precinct has similar turnout. Monroe County (IU) only has 9% in so far, projecting that is rough but it might give 5000 or more based on the current margin. Lafayette isn't in yet at all, and Lake/Laporte aren't in either. I'd guess that from the Hillary areas that haven't reported yet there's less than a 5000 vote margin left for her. That leaves about 27,000 votes he'd need to make up in Lake and Porter and Lafayette and Monroe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was going to vote today but then realized that as long as there is not another prohibition, I do not care who is in office. but I am disapointed Obama didnt win here

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

52-48 with 71% in. Still nothing from Lake.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 6, 2008 -> 07:24 PM)
52-48 with 71% in. Still nothing from Lake.

52.353 - 47.647 (Clitnon +4.706)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
QUOTE (fathom @ May 7, 2008 -> 01:25 AM)
How many expected voters in Lake Co?

 

I think CNN said its population is something like 8% of the state (correct me if I'm wrong, someone).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
QUOTE (CWSGuy406 @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:27 PM)
I think CNN said its population is something like 8% of the state (correct me if I'm wrong, someone).

 

About 500,000 people

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
QUOTE (KipWellsFan @ May 6, 2008 -> 05:28 PM)
About 500,000 people

In 2004, John Kerry got 115,000 votes in Lake County. If you assume no other counties help close the gap (poor assumption) and that many votes turn out, Obama needs to win it almost 2-1. But, there's still some votes sitting in Indy uncounted, and @ PU and IU.

 

In Indy in 2004, Kerry got 162,000 votes, and it seems like over 150,000 turned out in Indy for this one, so I think 110,000 might be a reasonable estimate for the Lake County Turnout. If B-Town and Lafayette could help narrow that gap and get it down to 30,000 or less, he'd have a shot if it went solidly prObama.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×