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Housing Prices up today, first quarterly gain since 2006.

Consumer sentiment at its highest levels since 12/07.

 

Let's keep the "better" news coming.

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QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Aug 25, 2009 -> 09:53 AM)
Housing Prices up today, first quarterly gain since 2006.

Consumer sentiment at its highest levels since 12/07.

 

Let's keep the "better" news coming.

 

 

Still, doesn't outweigh the really scary news.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090825/ap_on_...obama_economy_5

 

The federal government faces exploding deficits and mounting debt over the next decade, White House officials predicted Tuesday in a fiscal assessment far bleaker than what the Obama administration had estimated just a few months ago.

 

Figures released by the White House budget office foresee a cumulative $9 trillion deficit from 2010-2019, $2 trillion more than the administration estimated in May.

 

http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/cbo-2009-08.pdf

 

CBO Projects Long and Costly Recession

The new economic projections from the Congressional Budget Office1 show

the economy remaining well below its potential level of output until 2014. The

projections show the unemployment rate averaging 10.2 percent in 2010 and

gradually edging down to the long-term sustainable rate of 4.8 percent by

2014.

 

We are talking about hitting 20 trillion in debt in 10 years; the government keeps spending more and taking in less. This is a disaster about to happen.

Edited by mr_genius

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And there are few things on the horizon that haven't happened yet...

 

The GM and Chrysler closings haven't happened yet...

The Commercial real estate crash hasn't really happened yet...

inflation hasn't kicked in yet...

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 25, 2009 -> 06:01 PM)
And there are few things on the horizon that haven't happened yet...

 

The GM and Chrysler closings haven't happened yet...

The Commercial real estate crash hasn't really happened yet...

inflation hasn't kicked in yet...

Only the third one is true. First one did indeed happen, two rounds of them, and I've seen them closed in town. Another round may come though. Second one already partially happened, and likely will get worse, but supports will be there for development too, so it won't be as horrible as the broader crash was.

 

Inflation, though, I'm right with you there. When the economy does kick back up in a year or two, inflation will go up big, IMO.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 25, 2009 -> 07:59 PM)
Only the third one is true. First one did indeed happen, two rounds of them, and I've seen them closed in town. Another round may come though. Second one already partially happened, and likely will get worse, but supports will be there for development too, so it won't be as horrible as the broader crash was.

 

Inflation, though, I'm right with you there. When the economy does kick back up in a year or two, inflation will go up big, IMO.

First one is true as well. There's a ton of those plants that have yet to be idled. Those numbers that you see "post bankrputcy" is after the plants are idled, and a lot of them aren't slated to stop production until 2010. You've got another 100,000 people in JUST GM and Chrysler to go - not to mention now the suppliers you effect because of the "smaller and leaner" companies.

 

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QUOTE (kapkomet @ Aug 25, 2009 -> 09:01 PM)
First one is true as well. There's a ton of those plants that have yet to be idled. Those numbers that you see "post bankrputcy" is after the plants are idled, and a lot of them aren't slated to stop production until 2010. You've got another 100,000 people in JUST GM and Chrysler to go - not to mention now the suppliers you effect because of the "smaller and leaner" companies.

 

A lot of the dealerships are yet to close as well.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 25, 2009 -> 09:15 PM)
A lot of the dealerships are yet to close as well.

EOY 2009... that's right, I forgot about that.

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QUOTE (kapkomet @ Aug 25, 2009 -> 10:16 PM)
EOY 2009... that's right, I forgot about that.

 

The Chrysler dealers are closed, many of the GM closings are actually going to happen in 2010, not 2009 - because it was contract non-renewal rather than immediate franchise removal.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 25, 2009 -> 09:15 PM)
A lot of the dealerships are yet to close as well.

That's actually what I thought you were referring to - which is why I said already many of those are done. The plant closings have been happening for years BTW, this just continues the trend.

 

Good news for Chicago is, Ford is actually looking to EXPAND their Chicago plant.

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WASHINGTON (AP) -- New U.S. home sales surged 9.6 percent in July, rising for the fourth straight month and beating expectations as the housing market marches steadily back from its historic downturn.

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QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Aug 26, 2009 -> 10:35 AM)
WASHINGTON (AP) -- New U.S. home sales surged 9.6 percent in July, rising for the fourth straight month and beating expectations as the housing market marches steadily back from its historic downturn.

Bargain basement buyers and those seeking the special first time credits (along with some isolated local programs too), all helping this. I almost wish the surge was a little less pronounced though, as this will probably cause a slight dip again early in 2010. Nothing to be alarmed about though. Overall, from everything I am reading, looks like at a national level, we've leveled and have the pieces in place to start climbing back up a bit.

 

The X factor though, is employment. If unemployment stays similar to now for about 6 months, then goes up, (or something akin to this), I think we'll be good. If it gets notably worse (not talking about a few tenths here, I mean more than that), and can't recover in that 6 month or so timeline, then the housing market will stay flat, and spending will too, and we could be in for another overall dip.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 26, 2009 -> 10:38 AM)
Bargain basement buyers and those seeking the special first time credits (along with some isolated local programs too), all helping this. I almost wish the surge was a little less pronounced though, as this will probably cause a slight dip again early in 2010. Nothing to be alarmed about though. Overall, from everything I am reading, looks like at a national level, we've leveled and have the pieces in place to start climbing back up a bit.

 

The X factor though, is employment. If unemployment stays similar to now for about 6 months, then goes up, (or something akin to this), I think we'll be good. If it gets notably worse (not talking about a few tenths here, I mean more than that), and can't recover in that 6 month or so timeline, then the housing market will stay flat, and spending will too, and we could be in for another overall dip.

 

Again, another sign that we are going to see a double dip in this recession.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 26, 2009 -> 10:50 AM)
Again, another sign that we are going to see a double dip in this recession.

I'm 50/50 on that, but we'll know more by about January or so.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 26, 2009 -> 10:53 AM)
I'm 50/50 on that, but we'll know more by about January or so.

It's going to take longer then that. We're not going to see really strong GDP for a long, long time - and I think before that, we will see another huge downturn. 1% growth sucks, and I doubt we see a lot higher then that... although, they are going to play with the numbers - cash for clunkers, etc. is going to have a "MAJOR IMPACT" on 3rd quarter numbers - all signs that "OBAMAPLAN" is working.

 

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 26, 2009 -> 10:50 AM)
Again, another sign that we are going to see a double dip in this recession.

 

 

:notworthy

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Dow is up for the 7th straight trading day. Now at levels last seen October 7th, 2008.

 

Dow is up 5.6% since 1/1/09

Dow is up 45.8% since 3/9/09 (its low)

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QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Aug 26, 2009 -> 03:22 PM)
are you hoping for poor economic news?

He's a trader, so, he might be. Depends on what he trades and how.

 

But I think he was just agreeing with SS2K5.

 

That said, you may note that CKnolls is pretty much always bearish with his posts in here.

 

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QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Aug 26, 2009 -> 03:22 PM)
are you hoping for poor economic news?

 

 

All I believe is it is different this time. This bubble is unlike any other we have experienced. It will take much longer to recover from and the economy will not return to where it once stood. We are really in the second year of de-leveraging, and I believe we have 3-5 years more to go. I think it is laughable to talk about a housing recovery. With foreclosure at a record and climbing, particularly among PRIME loans now, and more arms(5/1) re-setting next year, we will see another wave of capital raising by the banks and foreclosures by borrowers. Foreclosures= lower prices & increased sahdow inventories. Risk is high! That is all I'm trying to say. Be cautious. I do not believe the lows are in yet.

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QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Aug 26, 2009 -> 09:22 PM)
Dow is up for the 7th straight trading day. Now at levels last seen October 7th, 2008.

 

Dow is up 5.6% since 1/1/09

Dow is up 45.8% since 3/9/09 (its low)

 

8th day in a row.

 

Rally Monkey brought us from 82 down to 37 up.

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QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 03:16 PM)
8th day in a row.

 

Rally Monkey brought us from 82 down to 37 up.

 

In the category of FWIW, the stock market rallied a whole 50% from the 1929 lows before selling off about 85%. (since you seem to have a particular interest in depression era economics and finance lately ;) )

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 09:27 PM)
In the category of FWIW, the stock market rallied a whole 50% from the 1929 lows before selling off about 85%. (since you seem to have a particular interest in depression era economics and finance lately ;) )

 

its a different world my friend.

 

listen all we hear everyday is how "the end of the world" is coming. whether its deficits, unemployment, foreclosures, etc. The positive or better than expected news tends to get lost in the crowd. Just trying to give an equal sounding board for the good with the bad. People can choose to believe what they want.

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QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 03:51 PM)
its a different world my friend.

 

listen all we hear everyday is how "the end of the world" is coming. whether its deficits, unemployment, foreclosures, etc. The positive or better than expected news tends to get lost in the crowd. Just trying to give an equal sounding board for the good with the bad. People can choose to believe what they want.

 

That's just it. You can't separate out one thing or another. Economics is a total package. Picking out just the good isn't really an equal sounding board, its just being a fanboy.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 04:59 PM)
That's just it. You can't separate out one thing or another. Economics is a total package. Picking out just the good isn't really an equal sounding board, its just being a fanboy.

And those who pick (bottoms) have s*** on their fingers. :)

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