2010

[VAfan]

What are the sure things for next year?

 

OF -- Quentin, Rios

IF -- Beckham, Ramirez, Konerko

C -- AJ

SP -- Peavy, Buehrle, Floyd, Danks

RP -- Jenks, Thornton, Pena, Carrasco

 

These positions seem set to me. Sure, KW could trade someone from this group, but it seems very unlikely.

 

Who else do we have?

 

OF -- Kotsay, Wise

IF -- Getz, Nix, Viciedo

C -- Flowers, Castro

SP -- Torres, Hudson

RP -- Linebrink

 

What about the free agents?

 

OF -- Pods, Dye

RP -- Dotel

 

What would I do?

 

I think we're stuck for another year with the infield that we have. Until Viciedo is ready, I don't see the Sox making any moves here. Beckham will be better offensively and defensively with a year under his belt. Ramirez is better at SS than he was at 2B. The key will be getting him to hit in cold weather. Getz and Nix should fight it out for 2B, with Nix the better defender and with more power. Problem is that Nix can serve as a utility backup for 3B, SS, and 2B while Getz can't. Still, I think these guys will be given another year. Konerko isn't going anywhere until his contract runs out.

 

In the outfield, I think Dye has played his way off the team in the second half. Key question is whether to bring Pods back at lead off. I'd look instead for a lefty power hitter who can field to play RF. And it wouldn't be Bobby Abreu. Not sure who we could put there. I'd keep Pods only if he doesn't want a multi-year deal, and even then I'd look at him as a 4th outfielder.

 

At C and some DH, I'd probably bring up Flowers and let go of Castro.

 

At DH, I'd consider bringing back Jim Thome for a year. Or another lefty power bat. Wish we'd have kept Brandon Allen to DH or play 1B. He and Flowers would have made a nice pairing with Konerko and AJ, with a year to apprentice before taking over full time. 4 guys covering 3 positions.

 

It would be an open competition for 5th starter.

 

In the bullpen, I'd keep Jenks for another year, let Dotel go, try to rid myself of Linebrink, and then fill in with the best 3 arms I could get behind Jenks, Thornton, Pena, and Carrasco.

 

I'd certainly be done with DeWayne Wise. Might keep Kotsay for his utility skills and pinch hitting.

 

How would the team improve?

 

Mostly from better starting pitching with Peavy instead of Contreras. Better play offensively and defensively from a young infield gaining maturity. More consistent production from LF and CF and RF. And a renewed bullpen.

 

I agree with the posts about adding at least one impact player. Ideally that would be in RF. The rest could be bargain supplements.

 

[son of a rude]

I really want randy winn for RF next year. A 2 year contract should suffice. He is excellent in RF. His offensive numbers are pretty low this year. It may be due to him aging or an off year. Either way, he will come cheap and it will add a lefty who is great in RF.

[Buehrle>Wood]

As far as I can tell, Kotsay and Castro are also free agents.

[Balta1701]

As far as I can tell, Kotsay and Castro are also free agents.

Flowers ought to be up in the bigs anyway.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I'd love for all of this to happen, but it's going to cost close to $25 million. And that's in addition to the $15 million or so that we'll be shelling out in arbitration to Quentin, Danks, and Jenks.

 

Kenny needs to make the bullpen a priority. If there's any financial flexibility left over, a left-handed power hitter would be priority #2. Realistically, I don't think that they'll be able to afford any more big-contract impact players (like Figgins).

The arb amounts due to CQ and Danks are hard to figure because they depend on so many things, but I could see extensions for both that would negate the arb process. Danks is probably glad he didn't sign the deal offered to him, but CQ could be a different story. And I wouldn't be shocked to see Bobby Jenks traded either, in fact I'd probably be more shocked to see Paulie traded than Jenks.

 

We have to see what the Sox are planning on doing and where they'll be at financially. If they had been figuring on bringing Dye back when they added Rios and Peavy, but have since decided to let him go, then that should be another $12M or so available.

 

Another factor is where we finish. If we finish with one of the 15 worst records then we almost HAVE to sign a Type A free agent to take advantage of that, because then we'd be getting a top player for a 2nd round pick only.

[bmags]

Yeah, I think of all pieces expected to move: Jenks is most definitely it.

[Buehrle>Wood]

I wouldn't move Jenks unless we have to. We'll be overpaying for him, but whatever. Our 'pen is in shambles and it doesn't make sense to get rid of a workable piece.

[bmags]

our pen has ben bad good bad good bad good every year. It's going to be a crap shoot no matter. Thornton can do it. He's cheaper. We can get other pieces.

[oldsox]

LF Podsednik (2yr deal)

3B Beckham

1B Konerko

DH Abreu or Dye (FA) (2yr deal)

RF Quentin

CF Rios

C AJ/Flowers

2B Ramirez

SS Alex Gonzalez [/size](FA, better defense at SS, trade Getz since he's proved to be a MLB 2b and get prospects, because Alexei cant handle SS)

 

Nix

Alex Cora (FA)

Flowers (C/1B?)

Reed Johnson (FA)

Ramon Castro

Wise/kotsay

Alex Gonzalez? You gotta be kidding.

Peavy

Buehrle

Danks

Floyd

Freddy/Hudson

 

Jenks

Thorton

Chad Cordero (FA)

Torres

Carrasco

Nunez

Linebrink

 

I think with Thome , Contreras, Dye, Dotel off the books (35+ million) sox will spend some money on top of peavy and rios.

 

[bmags]

safe to say oldsox agreed with that whole post?

[WCSox]

The arb amounts due to CQ and Danks are hard to figure because they depend on so many things, but I could see extensions for both that would negate the arb process. Danks is probably glad he didn't sign the deal offered to him, but CQ could be a different story. And I wouldn't be shocked to see Bobby Jenks traded either, in fact I'd probably be more shocked to see Paulie traded than Jenks.

 

We have to see what the Sox are planning on doing and where they'll be at financially. If they had been figuring on bringing Dye back when they added Rios and Peavy, but have since decided to let him go, then that should be another $12M or so available.

 

Another factor is where we finish. If we finish with one of the 15 worst records then we almost HAVE to sign a Type A free agent to take advantage of that, because then we'd be getting a top player for a 2nd round pick only.

 

IIRC, the Sox are contractually locked into paying $67 million next year, which doesn't include the arbitration players. I don't know what their payroll limit will be next year but, given that they shed payroll last season to get under $100 million and the still-bad economy, I have a tough time seeing them going over $95 million. Even $90 million might be stretching it. If CQ and Danks cost $10 million combined, they're not going to have much left over to round out their roster. And there are going to be a lot of attrition-generated holes to fill.

 

I agree that there's a good chance that Jenks is dealt, as he'll most likely command about $7 million next year. But the problem with this is that Thornton is the only other reliable pitcher in the bullpen and, after dealing both Poreda and Richard, we have zero in-house options. So not only will the Sox need to add middle relievers, but they'll need to spend on another closer to replace Jenks (I don't think that Thornton will be a closer). Proven veteran closers aren't cheap and, contrary to what some people believe, it's difficult to go cheap at this position when you have squat in your farm system. It almost seems like it's better to over-pay Jenks for one more year, and maybe cut Paulie. It seems like a real waste to have a bad-ass rotation and a bullpen that will lose games for them. But if you cut Paulie, you're relying on Quentin to stay healthy for a full season and you're relying very heavily on Beckham and Rios to carry the offense. Either way, you're in trouble and you're basically wasting an opportunity to run for very-good-to-dominant starting pitchers out there. So who knows... maybe Kenny will exceed $100 million for one more year, and risk going into the red.

Edited September 4, 2009 by WCSox

[WCSox]

our pen has ben bad good bad good bad good every year. It's going to be a crap shoot no matter. Thornton can do it. He's cheaper. We can get other pieces.

 

This would be doable if Kenny could get a LOOGY and another middle reliever in exchange for Bobby's rights.

 

I still don't think that Thornton has the offspeed stuff to be a good closer, but I don't see any other way. And I'd take my chances with him over somebody like Kerry Wood or Kevin Gregg.

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

IIRC, the Sox are contractually locked into paying $67 million next year, which doesn't include the arbitration players. I don't know what their payroll limit will be next year but, given that they shed payroll last season to get under $100 million and the still-bad economy, I have a tough time seeing them going over $95 million. Even $90 million might be stretching it. If CQ and Danks cost $10 million combined, they're not going to have much left over to round out their roster. And there are going to be a lot of attrition-generated holes to fill.

 

I agree that there's a good chance that Jenks is dealt, as he'll most likely command about $7 million next year. But the problem with this is that Thornton is the only other reliable pitcher in the bullpen and, after dealing both Poreda and Richard, we have zero in-house options. So not only will the Sox need to add middle relievers, but they'll need to spend on another closer to replace Jenks (I don't think that Thornton will be a closer). Proven veteran closers aren't cheap and, contrary to what some people believe, it's difficult to go cheap at this position when you have squat in your farm system. It almost seems like it's better to over-pay Jenks for one more year, and maybe cut Paulie. It seems like a real waste to have a bad-ass rotation and a bullpen that will lose games for them. But if you cut Paulie, you're relying on Quentin to stay healthy for a full season and you're relying very heavily on Beckham and Rios to carry the offense. Either way, you're in trouble and you're basically wasting an opportunity to run for very-good-to-dominant starting pitchers out there. So who knows... maybe Kenny will exceed $100 million for one more year, and risk going into the red.

Good post.

 

I don't think CQ and Danks get that much combined as first year arb players though. You could be right because Jenks got more than $5M last year as a first-year arb player. I hope at the very least that the Sox get some cost certainty with the two of them via extensions this offseason.

 

We REALLY do need another lefty. Our closest in-house option is Charlie Leesman and although he's having a decent year, he's not really a MLB reliever type nor should he become a fast mover. Failing to sign Morgado really hurt after the Poreda and Richard deal. And I wish, if it was possible, that we could have kept one of those guys while offering a righty that may have even been a better prospect.

 

We won't cut Paulie because we're obligated to pay his contract. At worst, I think the Braves will take him if we eat some salary. Maybe we can get our lefty there. We'd need a 1B though and Dayan isn't ready.

 

As for replacing Bobby Jenks, we do have Nathan Jones who could be a replacement and because of his arm he could really climb the ladder quickly. It's even conceivable to me that he could make the club out of ST like Logan did in 2006. Beyond that, we could hold a competition between Santeliz, Omogrosso, Nunez, Harrell, Link, and DRod (if we still have him) for another relief spot and hope we come up with a setup man. We have guys with the talent to do very well, but of course any time you rely on prospects you have to plan for failure, and because of that it would make sense to at least bring in a cheap veteran.

 

The bullpen will be tough to fix no matter what, but dealing Jenks makes it even tougher. I do not like the idea of trading for another Tony Pena or signing a reliever to another big-money contract because the chances aren't very good we'll get fair dollar-for-dollar production out of it for the length of the deal. But I also don't like the idea of relying exclusively on prospects and reclamation projects either. If given the choice, I'd probably go with the prospects and reclamation projects because at least if you go that route you can cut or trade unproductive pieces, whereas another Linebrink-type contact or Tony Pena deal could really bog this team down, and for more than just one year.

Edited September 4, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[beck72]

I didn't see any mention of this in any threads, but I thought I would put it here.

 

If the sox are intent on signing Chone Figgins, [which ESPN Insider is reporting, http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/features/ru...atures%2frumors ] it would have to be to play 3b. It would make a ton of sense to get Figgins for 3b and the top of the order so the sox can add young players like Flowers, Beckham, and Jordan Danks to the everyday lineup in 2010 and 2011. If that’s the case, the sox then would probably have to do a few things:

 

1] trade Alexei for some good talent—at least a young OFer and a Pitcher who could play in 2010. Say to Boston for OF Josh Reddick and a pitcher, prob. a bullpen arm. Reddick could then compete for the RF job, along with Jordan Danks and Mark Kotsay; both Reddick and Danks would likely need more time in the minors, so Kotsay could start the year in RF, and eventually be replaced by one of those two.

 

2] Kenny also said [ http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20...sp&c_id=cws ]he would need a LH bat for 2010. That could mean Thome coming back for at least part time duty. He could prob. Get a 1 yr, $5 mill. deal. Not sure what other lefty bats would be available to hit vs RHP. But Tyler Flowers could bat vs. LHP as the DH and at C to give AJ days off.

 

3] sign Kotsay for the bench and to play RF/ 1b

 

4] Sign Freddy Garcia to an incentive laden deal to be the 5th starter. Hudson might be ready. But to make sure he could start in the bullpen and help there.

 

5] Have Dan Hudson and Carlos Torres in the bullpen; Both could be stretched out if a SP goes down. But the bullpen needs shoring up. Instead of spending money [on who exactly] go internal. Hudson could be a Scot Shields type who could go 2 innings at a time. Having him pitch in the bullpen would save his arm, instead of having throw a lot of innings in AAA.

 

Here’s what the lineup would be:

 

1. Figgins-3b

2. Beckham-SS [R]

3. Quentin-LF [R]

4. PK-1B [R]

5. Thome/ Flowers-DH [L]

6. Rios-CF [R]

7. AJ/ Flowers-C [L]

8. Kotsay/ Reddick/ Danks-RF [L]

9. Getz/ Nix-2b [L]

 

Bench:

Nix

Wise/ Gartrell

Flowers

Lillibridge

 

SP:

Buerhle

Peavy

Danks

Floyd

Garcia/ Hudson/ Torres

 

Bullpen:

Torres [long man]

Carrasco [7th, 8th]

Randy Williams

Hudson [7th, 8th]

Linebrink [7th, 8th]

Thornton [7th, 8th]

Jenks

 

[Disco72]

I didn't see any mention of this in any threads, but I thought I would put it here.

 

Some good info and ideas there beck. FYI, it has been reported that the Sox have an option on Garcia for next year, so they won't have to sign him. Also, I'd rather see someone more established in RF, but I understand that you are trying to be realistic and stay within salary constraints given signing Figgins plus arbitration raises. Some might argue against Torres and Hudson in the bullpen, but I don't think it is such a bad idea considering the Sox need some cheap talent in the bullpen.

[knightni]

This is what I'd like to see:

 

Podsednik - DH

Beckham - 3B

Quentin - RF

Dunn - LF

Konerko - 1B

Rios - CF

Pierzynski - C

Getz - 2B

Ramirez - SS

 

Ramirez and Beckham will get better defensively, plus Dunn can be lefty power without all the slowness of Thome.

[beck72]

Some good info and ideas there beck. FYI, it has been reported that the Sox have an option on Garcia for next year, so they won't have to sign him. Also, I'd rather see someone more established in RF, but I understand that you are trying to be realistic and stay within salary constraints given signing Figgins plus arbitration raises. Some might argue against Torres and Hudson in the bullpen, but I don't think it is such a bad idea considering the Sox need some cheap talent in the bullpen.

Thanks. Freddy and the sox would be a good fit for 2010.

 

The bullpen should be OK if those two would be added. And Pena has a spring under his belt working on things.

 

RF could be filled by Kotsay. With Rios and Quentin, no big contracts should go to a 3rd OFer.

[BamaDoc]

Boy I am putting on a flame retardent suit because I will make an unpopular suggestion. Before we trade Alexi, a young player with cost certainty for several years, we have to be sure Beckham can play shortstop at the major league level. Don't get me wrong, I love Beckham I just haven't seen him play SS. I am confident that Nix is not an everyday SS. Alexi in the field has perplexed and frustrated me, but if the staff thinks he can improve, I keep him. Figgins makes sense for this team, but creates 4 players for 3 positions. (I like Getz/Nix at 2b as decent production and cheap). If Rios is your best defensive centerfielder, what about Alexi in left? The two would cover a lot of ground.

[beck72]

Boy I am putting on a flame retardent suit because I will make an unpopular suggestion. Before we trade Alexi, a young player with cost certainty for several years, we have to be sure Beckham can play shortstop at the major league level. Don't get me wrong, I love Beckham I just haven't seen him play SS. I am confident that Nix is not an everyday SS. Alexi in the field has perplexed and frustrated me, but if the staff thinks he can improve, I keep him. Figgins makes sense for this team, but creates 4 players for 3 positions. (I like Getz/Nix at 2b as decent production and cheap). If Rios is your best defensive centerfielder, what about Alexi in left? The two would cover a lot of ground.

The sox do a good job of knowing the talents/ ceilings of their players--esp. position players. If they think Gordon can play SS in the majors [who, while he won't cover as much ground as Alexei, most likely will not make as many bone headed plays], and they have someone at 3b set for a few years in a guy like Figgins, Alexei has more value via trade than at 2b or the OF.

 

Alexei, IMO, fits in better with the sox of old [his easy outs, inconsistent defense, prone to long slumps, HR or nothing], than he does with the sox of 2010 and beyond. That said, Alexei is a talent that other teams may covet, but whom the sox expect will improve and help them for 2010.

 

The sox talent level, in the minors and majors, still needs to improve, even if they sign a free agent. Alexei might be one of the few trading chips [along with AJ] that could help the sox improve in 2 areas such as getting a young OFer and an arm, both of whom could help the 2010 team.

 

 

[MattZakrowski]

This is what I'd like to see:

 

Podsednik - DH

Beckham - 3B

Quentin - RF

Dunn - LF

Konerko - 1B

Rios - CF

Pierzynski - C

Getz - 2B

Ramirez - SS

 

Ramirez and Beckham will get better defensively, plus Dunn can be lefty power without all the slowness of Thome.

 

Even Pods is better in left than Dunn, who may be the worst defensive starter in the MLB.

[knightni]

Even Pods is better in left than Dunn, who may be the worst defensive starter in the MLB.

Worse than Soriano?

[WCSox]

If given the choice, I'd probably go with the prospects and reclamation projects because at least if you go that route you can cut or trade unproductive pieces, whereas another Linebrink-type contact or Tony Pena deal could really bog this team down, and for more than just one year.

 

I agree. If money is really tight, I probably go that route and give Thornton a shot at closing. If the Sox are in contention and the bullpen isn't getting it done, I trade for proven talent mid-season.

 

I didn't see any mention of this in any threads, but I thought I would put it here.

 

If the sox are intent on signing Chone Figgins, [which ESPN Insider is reporting, http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/features/ru...atures%2frumors ] it would have to be to play 3b. It would make a ton of sense to get Figgins for 3b and the top of the order so the sox can add young players like Flowers, Beckham, and Jordan Danks to the everyday lineup in 2010 and 2011. If that’s the case, the sox then would probably have to do a few things:

 

1] trade Alexei for some good talent—at least a young OFer and a Pitcher who could play in 2010. Say to Boston for OF Josh Reddick and a pitcher, prob. a bullpen arm. Reddick could then compete for the RF job, along with Jordan Danks and Mark Kotsay; both Reddick and Danks would likely need more time in the minors, so Kotsay could start the year in RF, and eventually be replaced by one of those two.

 

I would've given my left nut for Figgins four years ago. He'll be on the wrong side of 30 next year and will begin to lose effectiveness as a base-stealer (he somewhat has already), so I'm not sure that I'd want to sign him as a FA. I suppose that it depends on how high the bidding war gets. He would be able to fill the chronic need as a leadoff hitter, but he'd also likely preclude us form signing another power bat to replace Thome. With JD almost certainly gone, Paulie on his way out, and Quentin's health always a question mark, I don't know if I want to dump a lot of money onto a player with a career .390 SLG. Especially after all of the money that Kenny spent on Rios. As hypocritical as it sounds coming out of my keyboard, the Sox are going to need another power-hitting station-to-station guy.

 

As for Alexei, I realize that the Sox could probably get a lot for him right now because of his favorable contract. But with Danks and Floyd relatively affordable for the next couple of years and under team control, and Mark under contract for two more years, I don't think that you trade Alexei for prospects at this point. Especially after trading for Peavy. If you want to win now, Alexei gives you some really good bang for the buck.

 

Edited September 5, 2009 by WCSox

[beck72]

I agree. If money is really tight, I probably go that route and give Thornton a shot at closing. If the Sox are in contention and the bullpen isn't getting it done, I trade for proven talent mid-season.

 

 

 

I would've given my left nut for Figgins four years ago. He'll be on the wrong side of 30 next year and will begin to lose effectiveness as a base-stealer (he somewhat has already), so I'm not sure that I'd want to sign him as a FA. I suppose that it depends on how high the bidding war gets. He would be able to fill the chronic need as a leadoff hitter, but he'd also likely preclude us form signing another power bat to replace Thome. With JD almost certainly gone, Paulie on his way out, and Quentin's health always a question mark, I don't know if I want to dump a lot of money onto a player with a career .390 SLG. Especially after all of the money that Kenny spent on Rios. As hypocritical as it sounds coming out of my keyboard, the Sox are going to need another power-hitting station-to-station guy.

 

As for Alexei, I realize that the Sox could probably get a lot for him right now because of his favorable contract. But with Danks and Floyd relatively affordable for the next couple of years and under team control, and Mark under contract for two more years, I don't think that you trade Alexei for prospects at this point. Especially after trading for Peavy. If you want to win now, Alexei gives you some really good bang for the buck.

The sox don't need Figgins to steal bases. But they would need him to play solid 3b, get on base and hit for avg at the leadoff spot. Figgins is likely to be an effective hitter for the next 4, 5 years. His game isn't all dependent on stealing bases. It's about making contact, getting IF hits, bunts, and drawing walks. The angels need to shore up their pitching, re-sign Lackey/ Abreu/ Vlad, and Figgins is down on the list. The sox would seem like a team that could be in the bidding [which is sounds like they are] for him and could land him given the right dollars and years, like 4yrs, $10 mill. per. Whether the sox would do it, who knows. But some team should give him that type of contract.

 

As far as a power bat goes, they could use Flowers as part of a DH tandem for 2010 and use it to rotate people in by giving them days off, and the sox sound like they realize they need a lefty bat, like Thome for 2010. Thome wants to play, and should land a DH spot somewhere. There aren't a lot of teams that would be in the bidding, esp. that fit Jim's criteria of playing for a team that has hopes to play in a World series.

[knightni]

Given options, I'd rather keep Beckham at 3B.

 

Figgins is not really in KW's budget area.

[southsider2k5]

Worse than Soriano?

 

The king of boneheaded plays... He makes Alexei look like a Rhodes Scholar of baseball.