A comparison of the Twins' and White Sox best offensive combinatio

[caulfield12]

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...362&Model=1

 

 

It's a big "chunk" to copy and paste, but a combination of Span/Mauer/Thome/Morneau/Cuddyer/Kubel/D. Young/Hardy/Brendan Harris can give the Twins as many as 939 runs. Based on all of their stats for 2009, including Hardy's pretty terrible year.

 

 

Next, I'll do a "head to head" comparison with the White Sox, and just to be "fair/er" to the likes of Carlos Quentin, I'll go with the career averages of OBP/SLG for all of our players except for Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre (2007-2009 numbers averaged).

 

 

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...393&Model=1

 

Doing the same for the White Sox gives 4.987 RPG or 808 for a full season. That's with my fairly generous counting the career average of Konerko, which I'm not sure we can expect out of him...bumping him down a bit puts us around 800 runs scored for the entire season.

 

You can take out Thome and substitute Punto and that will obviously change those numbers a bit for the Twins, but the difference with Thome and Cuddyer both in the line-up would be 0.81 runs per game.

 

In other words, if our pitching manages a 3.75 ERA (being optimistic), the Twins would be even with us at a 4.56 team ERA.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 27, 2010 by caulfield12

[LittleHurt05]

Cuddyer hasnt played a single inning at 3B since 2005.......

[Kyyle23]

Well the season is over now. Paper says so

[southsider2k5]

Cuddyer hasnt played a single inning at 3B since 2005.......

 

Oops.

[Kyyle23]

Im just wondering, if Thome is taken out of the Twins lineup and put in the Sox, do those numbers completely reverse? I mean, if the point is that losing Thome accounts for a 131 run differential....

[caulfield12]

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...362&Model=1

 

With Punto (322 OBP/324 SLG) substituted for Thome, it knocks the Twins down to 900 runs scored (a difference of 39 runs per year having Thome over Nick Punto as DH, haha).

 

Factoring in that we can't really expect Konerko to hit his career averages, it knocks the White Sox down to 800 runs scored.

 

Which means we only need to pitch at 0.617 ERA below the Twins.

 

Perhap the most interesting result (not to many) is that Gordon Beckham is the leadoff hitter in every scenario and Juan Pierre's the #9 hitter.

 

Not that we'll ever see that happen.

 

 

 

Not 100 a run difference, but with Dye (340/490) instead of Pierre and Thome in the line-up, we're at 862 runs scored.

Of course, that's not taking into consideration outfield defense, simply an offensive metric.

 

It is interesting that at least on paper we're losing about 0.4 RPG, plus the Twins are definitely gaining SOMETHING with Thome, maybe not 0.37, but probably 0.2.

 

It's a net shift between the two teams of at least half a run per game, that's pretty huge.

Edited January 27, 2010 by caulfield12

[chunk23]

Im just wondering, if Thome is taken out of the Twins lineup and put in the Sox, do those numbers completely reverse? I mean, if the point is that losing Thome accounts for a 131 run differential....

 

Yeah, if we can't completely close the gap, we might as well stand pat and count on bounce back years from half the lineup.

[PeavyTime]

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...362&Model=1

 

With Punto (322 OBP/324 SLG) substituted for Thome, it knocks the Twins down to 900 runs scored (a difference of 39 runs per year having Thome over Nick Punto as DH, haha).

 

Factoring in that we can't really expect Konerko to hit his career averages, it knocks the White Sox down to 800 runs scored.

 

Which means we only need to pitch at 0.617 ERA below the Twins.

 

Perhap the most interesting result (not to many) is that Gordon Beckham is the leadoff hitter in every scenario and Juan Pierre's the #9 hitter.

 

Not that we'll ever see that happen.

 

Yawn

[ThunderBolt]

The statistical consensus is that our team in the best case scenario is about as good as last years team. We've literally done nothing to improve, and are gambling on a couple x-factors to maintain last years offensive production. We're taking a hell of a risk by making a gamble like this when we have a potent pitching staff and a deep pen. If we sign Damon or Branyan, i'll be content, but if we honestly think we're going to get production out of a tandem of Kotsay, Jones, and Visquel then we're going to be giving up a lot of prospects by the time the trade deadline comes around. We're paying Mark Kotsay, the same amount of money that the Twins are paying Jim Thome. I still can't get over how absurd that it is.

[LittleHurt05]

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...362&Model=1

 

With Punto (322 OBP/324 SLG) substituted for Thome, it knocks the Twins down to 900 runs scored (a difference of 39 runs per year having Thome over Nick Punto as DH, haha).

 

Factoring in that we can't really expect Konerko to hit his career averages, it knocks the White Sox down to 800 runs scored.

 

Which means we only need to pitch at 0.617 ERA below the Twins.

 

Perhap the most interesting result (not to many) is that Gordon Beckham is the leadoff hitter in every scenario and Juan Pierre's the #9 hitter.

 

Not that we'll ever see that happen.

 

Didn't we already go through numerous threads in the past years about how every simulation said Jim Thome should be the leadoff hitter, due to his OBP??? Pass that info on to Ozzie...

[caulfield12]

With Jim Thome plugged in for Andruw Jones, the White Sox go from 800 runs scored to 843.

 

Essentially, if Thome is playing everyday, he adds 39 runs to the Twins' line-up and 43 runs to the White Sox line-up.

 

Net shift, 82 to the Twins.

 

I didn't do the numbers swapping out Dye for Pierre, but I bet they'd be pretty close to 900.

 

 

[Kyyle23]

Yeah, if we can't completely close the gap, we might as well stand pat and count on bounce back years from half the lineup.

 

 

Or we could whine about a player that was never going to be more than a part time player. Thats much better. And sure, KW stood pat all offseason, thats exactly what he did.

 

One thing is always for sure on soxtalk, the grass is always greener on the other side.

[Kyyle23]

With Jim Thome plugged in for Andruw Jones, the White Sox go from 800 runs scored to 843.

 

Essentially, if Thome is playing everyday, he adds 39 runs to the Twins' line-up and 43 runs to the White Sox line-up.

 

Net shift, 82 to the Twins.

 

I didn't do the numbers swapping out Dye for Pierre, but I bet they'd be pretty close to 900.

 

 

well then, I guess this estimate has a few problems

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Or we could whine about a player that was never going to be more than a part time player. Thats much better. And sure, KW stood pat all offseason, thats exactly what he did.

 

One thing is always for sure on soxtalk, the grass is always greener on the other side.

 

If we even have any grass to begin with...

[Kyyle23]

If we even have any grass to begin with...

 

this is true. according to Soxtalk, there is mud and rocks

[Balta1701]

this is true. according to Soxtalk, there is mud and rocks

Yay!

[bmags]

yes, how dare we complain about going into the year with a dh combo that is likely to have a <.750 ops. in situations like this every single al lawn is greener than the white sox dh.>

[Kyyle23]

yes, how dare we complain about going into the year with a dh combo that is likely to have a <.750 ops. in situations like this every single al lawn is greener than the white sox dh.>

 

Honestly I dont think it will end with those two as the combo, but thats just me. Thats why Im not crying about it.

[caulfield12]

Either somebody tricked Ozzie Guillen into believing the White Sox are moving to the NL Central and thus don't need a designated hitter, or he's been persuaded it's 2002 all over again.

 

Guillen told reporters on Monday that the White Sox won't bring back slugger Jim Thome(notes) and instead will use a rotation that includes Andruw Jones(notes), Mark Kotsay(notes) and Omar Vizquel(notes).

 

Guillen's rationale? Jones, Kotsay and Vizquel could grab a glove or mitt and play defense. All Thome can do is swing a bat and whatever that might be worth, it won't be worth Thome's or the Sox's time, says Guillen.

 

From the Chicago Sun-Times:

 

"It came down to getting enough at-bats,'' Guillen explained. "I don't want a season where Jim sits three or four days in a row and the media comes up to him and asks, 'You're not playing ...' This thing will become a soap opera."

 

Remember, remember, the 25th of January.

 

Because it might be the day the White Sox gave away first place.

 

Thome turns 40 in August and — even though he finished the '09 season in the National League with the Dodgers — his days on defense are over. So Guillen has a point about roster flexibility. And it's great, I guess, that general manager Ken Williams is giving the manager meaningful input on how the roster is composed in the first place.

 

But someone needed to nudge Ozzie in the ribs to remind him that Thome was the team's best offensive player in 2009. And now, in 2010, the White Sox have just made him fully available to the two other top contenders in their own division.

 

The Twins and Tigers, along with the Rays in the AL East, have been sniffing around Thome — who was going to give his old club the right of first refusal.

 

Foolishly, they have refused his services despite Thome leading the White Sox in on-base and slugging percentage in '09. The White Sox finished with 79 victories because they also finished near the bottom in runs scored in the AL. Getting rid of Thome doesn't improve their biggest weakness.

 

So, the White Sox are counting on career seasons from Mark Teahen(notes) and Alex Rios(notes), and rebound from Carlos Quentin(notes), to make up for Thome's loss. On the off-chance all of that happens, they've still given their opponents a free shot to get better.

 

Didn't Guillen and Williams imagine Thome in Minnesota's lineup instead of someone like Delmon Young(notes) or Brian Buscher(notes) at DH?

 

And did he forget that two seasons ago, the White Sox and Twins needed 163 games to decide the AL Central? Chicago beat the Twins 1-0 on the last day of the regular season thanks in part to a solo home run by ... James Howard Thome.

 

Guillen seems to be worried about managing the nine road interleague games, when DHs become nothing but well-paid pinch hitters.

 

What about the other 95 percent of the time when the White Sox struggle to score runs in AL parks?

 

Thome's replacements don't inspire much confidence.

 

Jones claims to be in his best shape in a decade and he won 10 Gold Gloves in Atlanta. He used to be able to hit, too, so maybe he's come to his senses and again will be valuable.

 

Kotsay played well for the White Sox last year and would seem to be a good bench guy — in the National League. His defensive metrics have gone way south the past two seasons, though. He's never been Thome with the bat, either. His resemblance to actor Stephen Baldwin neither hurts nor helps.

 

Vizquel is a wonder at almost 43 years old, but if Guillen actually ever uses him as a designated hitter, Ozzie needs to be put down.

 

It looks to me like the White Sox could use a power lefty bat in their lineup.

 

Know of any on the market?

 

 

David Brown, Yahoo Sports

Edited January 27, 2010 by caulfield12

[elrockinMT]

Im just wondering, if Thome is taken out of the Twins lineup and put in the Sox, do those numbers completely reverse? I mean, if the point is that losing Thome accounts for a 131 run differential....

 

Does that mean RBI's plus the runs he (or anyone) would score? We have lost run production IMO with the loss of Dye and Thome. Tehan makes up some of it, but I still think we are lacking. But, compare A Jones with D Wise and Vizquel with Lillibridge and we add some right?

[bmags]

Honestly I dont think it will end with those two as the combo, but thats just me. Thats why Im not crying about it.

 

I thought that last year with DeWayne wise. I learned my lesson.

[Kyyle23]

I thought that last year with DeWayne wise. I learned my lesson.

 

He didnt finish the year as the starter. They acquired rios and never looked back.

 

There is a contingency plan in place at all times with KW. With Colon and Wise last year, it was Peavy and Rios. KW isnt stupid, Im pretty sure he understands what he has and where his deficiencies are, he has his reasons why he isnt acting, we just dont know what they are.

[Ranger]

With Punto (322 OBP/324 SLG) substituted for Thome, it knocks the Twins down to 900 runs scored (a difference of 39 runs per year having Thome over Nick Punto as DH, haha).

 

Factoring in that we can't really expect Konerko to hit his career averages, it knocks the White Sox down to 800 runs scored.

 

Which means we only need to pitch at 0.617 ERA below the Twins.

 

Perhap the most interesting result (not to many) is that Gordon Beckham is the leadoff hitter in every scenario and Juan Pierre's the #9 hitter.

 

Not that we'll ever see that happen.

 

 

 

Not 100 a run difference, but with Dye (340/490) instead of Pierre and Thome in the line-up, we're at 862 runs scored.

Of course, that's not taking into consideration outfield defense, simply an offensive metric.

 

It is interesting that at least on paper we're losing about 0.4 RPG, plus the Twins are definitely gaining SOMETHING with Thome, maybe not 0.37, but probably 0.2.

 

It's a net shift between the two teams of at least half a run per game, that's pretty huge.

 

Since when was Nick Punto the Twins DH?

 

 

Either somebody tricked Ozzie Guillen into believing the White Sox are moving to the NL Central and thus don't need a designated hitter, or he's been persuaded it's 2002 all over again.

 

Guillen told reporters on Monday that the White Sox won't bring back slugger Jim Thome(notes) and instead will use a rotation that includes Andruw Jones(notes), Mark Kotsay(notes) and Omar Vizquel(notes).

 

Guillen's rationale? Jones, Kotsay and Vizquel could grab a glove or mitt and play defense. All Thome can do is swing a bat and whatever that might be worth, it won't be worth Thome's or the Sox's time, says Guillen.

 

From the Chicago Sun-Times:

 

"It came down to getting enough at-bats,'' Guillen explained. "I don't want a season where Jim sits three or four days in a row and the media comes up to him and asks, 'You're not playing ...' This thing will become a soap opera."

 

Remember, remember, the 25th of January.

 

Because it might be the day the White Sox gave away first place.

 

Thome turns 40 in August and — even though he finished the '09 season in the National League with the Dodgers — his days on defense are over. So Guillen has a point about roster flexibility. And it's great, I guess, that general manager Ken Williams is giving the manager meaningful input on how the roster is composed in the first place.

 

But someone needed to nudge Ozzie in the ribs to remind him that Thome was the team's best offensive player in 2009. And now, in 2010, the White Sox have just made him fully available to the two other top contenders in their own division.

 

The Twins and Tigers, along with the Rays in the AL East, have been sniffing around Thome — who was going to give his old club the right of first refusal.

 

Foolishly, they have refused his services despite Thome leading the White Sox in on-base and slugging percentage in '09. The White Sox finished with 79 victories because they also finished near the bottom in runs scored in the AL. Getting rid of Thome doesn't improve their biggest weakness.

 

So, the White Sox are counting on career seasons from Mark Teahen(notes) and Alex Rios(notes), and rebound from Carlos Quentin(notes), to make up for Thome's loss. On the off-chance all of that happens, they've still given their opponents a free shot to get better.

 

Didn't Guillen and Williams imagine Thome in Minnesota's lineup instead of someone like Delmon Young(notes) or Brian Buscher(notes) at DH?

 

And did he forget that two seasons ago, the White Sox and Twins needed 163 games to decide the AL Central? Chicago beat the Twins 1-0 on the last day of the regular season thanks in part to a solo home run by ... James Howard Thome.

 

Guillen seems to be worried about managing the nine road interleague games, when DHs become nothing but well-paid pinch hitters.

 

What about the other 95 percent of the time when the White Sox struggle to score runs in AL parks?

 

Thome's replacements don't inspire much confidence.

 

Jones claims to be in his best shape in a decade and he won 10 Gold Gloves in Atlanta. He used to be able to hit, too, so maybe he's come to his senses and again will be valuable.

 

Kotsay played well for the White Sox last year and would seem to be a good bench guy — in the National League. His defensive metrics have gone way south the past two seasons, though. He's never been Thome with the bat, either. His resemblance to actor Stephen Baldwin neither hurts nor helps.

 

Vizquel is a wonder at almost 43 years old, but if Guillen actually ever uses him as a designated hitter, Ozzie needs to be put down.

 

It looks to me like the White Sox could use a power lefty bat in their lineup.

 

Know of any on the market?

David Brown, Yahoo Sports

 

At least Ozzie and KW are amusing someone besides SoxTalk with their off-season machinations.

 

 

Oh, well since David Brown says so...

 

 

[Ranger]

He didnt finish the year as the starter. They acquired rios and never looked back.

 

There is a contingency plan in place at all times with KW. With Colon and Wise last year, it was Peavy and Rios. KW isnt stupid, Im pretty sure he understands what he has and where his deficiencies are, he has his reasons why he isnt acting, we just dont know what they are.

 

 

You and your logical thinking.

[bmags]

He didnt finish the year as the starter. They acquired rios and never looked back.

 

There is a contingency plan in place at all times with KW. With Colon and Wise last year, it was Peavy and Rios. KW isnt stupid, Im pretty sure he understands what he has and where his deficiencies are, he has his reasons why he isnt acting, we just dont know what they are.

 

Right, and we lost the division. What if we had a competent leadoff hitter to start the season? And then we get a hitter who hits awful to correct it. I'd rather just pay a few mill tonot have awful production from a generally great offensive spot in the lineup.