SoxAce Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 (edited) I did this last season to give us alittle optimism on a looming season and since our drafting philosophy is miles better the last 2-3 years than before with Laumann, I figured I shed some light here. Pittsburgh: 51-98 (Obviously they will probably win the Rendon sweepstakes, Pedro Alvarez more than likely their future 1B.. what a future) Seattle: 57-92 Arizona: 59-91 Baltimore: 59-90 Kansas City: 61-87 Washington: 62-87 Cleveland: 62-87 Cubs: 68-81 Milwaukee: 69-79 Houston: 72-77 Top 10 picks currently Los Angeles (N): 73-77 (1/2 GB for top 10) Los Angeles (A): 73-76 (1 GB for top 10) Florida: 73-75 (1.5 GB for top 10) New York (N): 74-76 (1.5 GB for top 10) Oakland: 74-74 (3.5 GB for top 10) Top 15 picks currently Toronto: 75-74 (1/2 GB for top 15, 3 GB for top 10) Detroit: 75-74 (1/2 GB for top 15, 3 GB for top 10) St. Louis: 77-71 (3 GB for top 15, 5.5 GB for top 10) White Sox: 79-70 (4.5 GB for top 15, 7 GB for top 10) Colorado: 82-67 (7.5 GB for top 15, 10 GB for top 10) Top 20 picks currently San Diego: 83-66 (1 GB for top 20, 8 GB for top 15) Boston: 83-66 (1 GB for top 20, 8 GB for top 15) Texas: 83-65 (1.5 GB for top 20, 8.5 GB for top 15) I won't list the other teams since we are 5+ games ahead. Sox are currently in 19th place. We have 13 games left in the season. As you can see, picks 11 to 17 is literally a close cluster-f***. Obviously the sox probably will not pick in the top 10 (just put it there for perspective) but we are currently 1.5 GB of the Cardinals for 18th and from then on, sox could go anywhere from 17 to 11 in a matter of days... of losing. (and the others winning) That's how tight it is this year. Top 15 sounds more realistic with us, and I would not mind that at all. And yes I'm sure there are a couple posters who don't believe in tanking/draft position/etc.. so please no hijacking. Edited September 20, 2010 by J.Reedfan8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Not that the White Sox will end up signing anybody anyways because of the insane amount of money already locked up for next season, but getting a top 15 pick would actually be advantageous so if a player who is a Type A free agent slips through the cracks, the Sox can sign him without giving up their first round pick. On top of that, losing the 2nd round pick would allot more money towards either that draft pick (though I'm not sure how much that would matter since the Sox don't go over slot anyways) or to allow the Sox to grab a few others who fall later in the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 I don't want to see them lose, but I wouldn't mind a Top 15 pick at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Sep 19, 2010 -> 11:58 PM) I don't want to see them lose, but I wouldn't mind a Top 15 pick at all. I agree. I'm going to root for us to win, but know there is a bright side if they lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scenario Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 The Sox would have to finish the season at or below .500 to end up in the top 15. That means going 2-11, or worse, in their final 13 games. Possible but highly unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 QUOTE (scenario @ Sep 20, 2010 -> 01:20 AM) The Sox would have to finish the season at or below .500 to end up in the top 15. That means going 2-11, or worse, in their final 13 games. Possible but highly unlikely. I wouldn't say have to finish at or below .500. Going 4-9 is certainly a possibility that puts the Sox are 83-79, and all 3 of Oakland, Florida, and New York can get relatively hot and finish above the Sox in the standings. I figure they'll probably end up with the 16th overall pick, which is a pretty terrible spot to be in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted September 20, 2010 Author Share Posted September 20, 2010 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 20, 2010 -> 02:54 AM) I wouldn't say have to finish at or below .500. Going 4-9 is certainly a possibility that puts the Sox are 83-79, and all 3 of Oakland, Florida, and New York can get relatively hot and finish above the Sox in the standings. I figure they'll probably end up with the 16th overall pick, which is a pretty terrible spot to be in. That is exactly the spot I was picking them to land as well looking at everything, which is scary and unfortunate to think about. Looking at the rest of our schedule comparing with the others.... Sox: 3 @ OAK, 3 @ LAA, 4 vs. BOS, 3 vs CLE (who owns us) Cardinals: 1 @ FLA (make-up game), 3 @ PIT, 3 @ CHC, 3 vs PIT, 4 vs COL Tigers: 3 vs KC, 3 vs MIN, 4 @ CLE, 3 @ BAL Blue Jays: 3 vs SEA, 3 vs BAL, 3 vs NYY, 4 @ MIN A's: 3 vs CHW, 4 vs TEX, 3 @ LAA, 3 @ SEA **Mets: 2 @ FLA, 3 @ PHI, 4 vs MIL, 3 vs WSH **Marlins: 1 vs STL (make-up game), 2 vs NYM, 4 @ MIL, 3 @ ATL, 3 vs PIT **Dodgers: 3 vs SD, 3 @ ARI, 3 @ COL, 3 vs ARI **Angels: 3 vs TEX, 3 vs CHW, 3 vs OAK, 4 @ TEX **added teams since they are so close together. On paper, some of those teams are locks to finish strong or likely stay around where they are at. I'll throw out a possible outcome on what could happen on likely finishes in games overall. (others can form their opinion as well) And mind you this is pretty much worst case, everyone else plays .500 or better cept us. Sox: 5-8 (I'll add one win from what wite said) 84-78 Cards: 8-6 (85-77) Tigers: 8-5 (83-79) Blue Jays: 7-6 (82-80) A's: 7-6 (82-80) Mets: 6-6 (80-82) Marlins: 7-7 (80-82) Dodgers: 7-5 (80-82) Angels: 7-6 (80-82) Which puts us at 18th. In other words... I hope the Blue Jays, Tigers, A's, and Cards play very well the last stretch (I could see the Cards, Tigers and Blue Jays finishing strong.. the A's are the wild card.. if they don't finish well, that puts us at 16th).. or we struggle a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 20, 2010 -> 02:54 AM) I wouldn't say have to finish at or below .500. Going 4-9 is certainly a possibility that puts the Sox are 83-79, and all 3 of Oakland, Florida, and New York can get relatively hot and finish above the Sox in the standings. I figure they'll probably end up with the 16th overall pick, which is a pretty terrible spot to be in. That's what drives me crazy about all these 2nd/3rd place finishes. We've only had one truly bad year during the KW era (2007), but we've missed the playoffs 8 times in 10 years. I'd rather lose 100 games and get that automatic top 3 draft pick than win 88 games, miss the playoffs, and get a high teens/early 20's pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenksycat Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 20, 2010 -> 12:42 AM) Not that the White Sox will end up signing anybody anyways because of the insane amount of money already locked up for next season, but getting a top 15 pick would actually be advantageous so if a player who is a Type A free agent slips through the cracks, the Sox can sign him without giving up their first round pick. On top of that, losing the 2nd round pick would allot more money towards either that draft pick (though I'm not sure how much that would matter since the Sox don't go over slot anyways) or to allow the Sox to grab a few others who fall later in the draft. Huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigruss Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Sep 20, 2010 -> 09:21 AM) Huh? You do realize we already have like $85 million locked up with no catcher, 1B, or DH signed yet? Not to mention all the closer, bullpen spots, and reserves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenksycat Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 QUOTE (bigruss22 @ Sep 20, 2010 -> 09:59 AM) You do realize we already have like $85 million locked up with no catcher, 1B, or DH signed yet? Not to mention all the closer, bullpen spots, and reserves. And that has what to do with the draft exactly? You guys make 2-3 million seem like 20-30 million, with Beckham and Sale, I'm confident JR realizes you can't go bargain hunting in the 1st round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Sep 20, 2010 -> 10:21 AM) And that has what to do with the draft exactly? You guys make 2-3 million seem like 20-30 million, with Beckham and Sale, I'm confident JR realizes you can't go bargain hunting in the 1st round. If you sign a Type A free agent, you lose either your first or second round pick. The Sox aren't going to have money to spend in free agency to lose a draft pick, but if they did, it would be a hell of a lot nicer to lose their second round pick between selections 50-65 than it would be to lose their first round choice that's between 16-30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkman delivers Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Just keep losing. If you can't win it, lose as much as possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Sep 20, 2010 -> 09:21 AM) And that has what to do with the draft exactly? You guys make 2-3 million seem like 20-30 million, with Beckham and Sale, I'm confident JR realizes you can't go bargain hunting in the 1st round. Yeah, he is not talking about no money for signing prospects, he is saying no money to sign a top FA, which means we aren't likely to lose a pick to a Type-A FA because we probably don't have the money to sign one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted September 22, 2010 Share Posted September 22, 2010 3.5! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted September 22, 2010 Author Share Posted September 22, 2010 (edited) QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Sep 21, 2010 -> 10:59 PM) 3.5! I'll update every 5 games or so to get a better read on it. So far though.. promising. (Hey if people actually thought we had a chance in the WC when TB was 6.5+ up on us, I might as well do this. ) Edited September 22, 2010 by J.Reedfan8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thxfrthmmrs Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 20, 2010 -> 12:42 AM) Not that the White Sox will end up signing anybody anyways because of the insane amount of money already locked up for next season, but getting a top 15 pick would actually be advantageous so if a player who is a Type A free agent slips through the cracks, the Sox can sign him without giving up their first round pick. On top of that, losing the 2nd round pick would allot more money towards either that draft pick (though I'm not sure how much that would matter since the Sox don't go over slot anyways) or to allow the Sox to grab a few others who fall later in the draft. if i am not mistaken, you would only lost the first round pick right? if it's a type A, the former team of the FA will get the first round pick from the signing team and a compensation pick in the sandwich round. If it's a type B pick then the former team gets a compensation pick in the sandwich round, and will not affect the signing team. Teams do not lose a second round pick. That's how I think it works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigruss Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Sep 26, 2010 -> 07:14 PM) if i am not mistaken, you would only lost the first round pick right? if it's a type A, the former team of the FA will get the first round pick from the signing team and a compensation pick in the sandwich round. If it's a type B pick then the former team gets a compensation pick in the sandwich round, and will not affect the signing team. Teams do not lose a second round pick. That's how I think it works. He meant that if we did sign a Type A player with having a protected first round pick that we would lose our second round pick, allowing us to distribute those savings from not having that pick to either the protected first round pick or elsewhere in the draft. Wishful thinking IMO, to me the Sox would probably excuse the lack of extra spending in that scenario by stating that the FA signing is our better draft pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thxfrthmmrs Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 yea you are right, just didn't consider the scenario where the Sox would land inside the top 15. Always feel like that they are closer to the top 10 teams in the league. I believe next years draft is much deeper than this years, a top 20 pick might be just as good as a top 15 or even a top 10 pick this year. So i would hate to lose that pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkman delivers Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 Just like this team to get hot at the end when they're already out, screwing up their draft standing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Sep 27, 2010 -> 11:43 AM) Just like this team to get hot at the end when they're already out, screwing up their draft standing. Is the difference between draft spot 15 and 18 really that big of a deal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkman delivers Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2010 -> 10:45 AM) Is the difference between draft spot 15 and 18 really that big of a deal? Protection of the pick. And yes, every single spot counts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2010 -> 10:45 AM) Is the difference between draft spot 15 and 18 really that big of a deal? The difference between 15 and 16 is a huge deal. The difference between 16 and 18 isn't a big deal whatsoever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty22hotty Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 This protected picks/compensation thing should be reevaluated or totally dropped for type A FAs... How it is fair for a borderline team to give up their 16th pick for a Type A while the WS champs would only have to give up their 30th pick.... Picks 1-22 (also any unsigned compensation picks) should be protected. (non playoff teams) OnTopic: It looks like the Sox will be the 19/20th best team with the 22/23 pick. Do you see KW going after Dunn/Crawford or some Type A bullpen help while sacrificing the farm? Even though he gave up 5 years of a cheap Hudson for 1.25 of an expensive Jackson... I doubt he goes after any Type As to improve this team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 27, 2010 -> 12:11 PM) The difference between 15 and 16 is a huge deal. The difference between 16 and 18 isn't a big deal whatsoever. This. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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