Southwest Region

[Heads22]

Brackets released at 5.

[bigruss]

Illinois 8 seed vs UNLV in the first round

[bigruss]

Make that 9 seed, I actually think I would prefer to be where Fla. St is at.

[maggsmaggs]

Haha, Illinois plays former coach Lon Kruger in the first round and then if they win, plays former coach Bill Self in the second. The last three Illinois coaches all in the same part of the bracket. I have Illinois winning the first (homer pick) and then getting annihilated in the second.

[WilliamTell]

Haha, Illinois plays former coach Lon Kruger in the first round and then if they win, plays former coach Bill Self in the second. The last three Illinois coaches all in the same part of the bracket. I have Illinois winning the first (homer pick) and then getting annihilated in the second.

 

Never know, maybe Illinois will follow Nothern Iowa from last year. Beat #8 UNLV then beat #1 Kansas.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Kansas won't get by Boston U.

[whitesoxfan99]

Haha, Illinois plays former coach Lon Kruger in the first round and then if they win, plays former coach Bill Self in the second. The last three Illinois coaches all in the same part of the bracket. I have Illinois winning the first (homer pick) and then getting annihilated in the second.

 

That wouldn't be painful enough. If Illinois wins against UNLV they will be playing very well against Kansas remember who they are and proceed to have an epic collapse.

[WilliamTell]

Kansas won't get by Boston U.

 

haha if this happened 90% of brackets could be doomed if they had Kansas going to the Elite 8 and beyond.

[whitesoxfan101]

I'm not a big Louisville or Vandy fan, and think KU has a walk to the elite 8. They're my champion though, so I have to say that. This is probably the 2nd softest region IMO, although the bottom half of the bracket is at least respectable. I think Georgetown/Notre Dame could be a fun sweet 16 Big East showdown. Notre Dame is the biggest potential challenge to Kansas in this region IMO due to their experience and style flexibility. Purdue, if they were to prove me wrong and get to the elite 8, could be a modest threat too though with two great players like Johnson and Moore. If they get hot, you never know.

Edited March 14, 2011 by whitesoxfan101

[ZoomSlowik]

We'll see if my bracket trend regardin Kansas continues. For about 15 years running, every time I pick Kansas they choke and every year I don't they make the Final Four. Obviously I pick them to do well far too often given their history.

[knightni]

ND mowed down Georgetown earlier this year and has played even better since then.

 

Purdue and Kansas are the only teams that really concern me from the Southwest.

 

 

[Rowand44]

ND mowed down Georgetown earlier this year and has played even better since then.

 

Purdue and Kansas are the only teams that really concern me from the Southwest.

Until ND learns to play defense they'll continue to have an early exit in the tournament. A&M should put them to bed early, that's one of the upsets I'm pretty confident in.

[knightni]

Until ND learns to play defense they'll continue to have an early exit in the tournament. A&M should put them to bed early, that's one of the upsets I'm pretty confident in.

A&M will be lucky to get past Florida St.

[Fotop]

Until ND learns to play defense they'll continue to have an early exit in the tournament. A&M should put them to bed early, that's one of the upsets I'm pretty confident in.

 

I've kept fairly quiet on ND all season, mainly because it took the entire season to convince me that this year was any different than previous iterations of this team. Having said that, I've come to the belief that this is the strongest team they've had since they took down U of I to make the s16 in 2003. In fact, it's likely stronger as it's much more balanced (everyone is a threat to score) and actually plays defense despite common belief.

 

Now, they're not lockdown defenders, I'll give you that, but their defense isn't below average. Outside of Ben H., the whole starting lineup is 6'8". As a result, their length has been giving folks in the Big East fits on the defensive side. They're not good at defending the three, but I think that's their only weakness on d. They're good rebounders and above average defenders in the paint/collapsing in zone due to the aforementioned length. People are always going to dog them because they don't have any freak athletes (although Carleton Scott is a good shot blocker) and a low amount of forced turnovers. The turnovers aren't as much of a concern as people like to say it is (coughESPNcough) because their tempo is slow (so less possessions to force turnovers) and they themselves don't turn the ball over frequently.

 

I don't know much about TAMU and Fla St. but from what I've read they're both defensive minded (someone correct me if I'm wrong). I'll gamble on ND beating a team known for their defense rather than having to run and gun with some really athletic teams. ND does not play all that well from behind as their preferred pace is fairly slow. Therefore, if an opponent's pace is also slow and prefers to grind it out (which sounds like TAMU and Fla St?) I'd take my chances with ND's offensive efficiency carrying the day.

 

I think if any team has a good shot to take ND out, it's one that plays tight man to man d or provides solid 3/4 court or full court pressure to disrupt the flow of their motion offense. On the offensive side, opponents will need to have guards that can pentrate and create or dish (e.g. peyton siva of UL or kemba walker of UCONN etc - these guys give ND fits) and/or powerful 3pt shooting to expose ND's weak 3pt defense.

 

Ultimately, getting eliminated prior to the s16 should be a disappointment for this squad. Making the e8 would be great for the program, so if they do survive the first weekend, there's going to be a lot hanging on their s16 matchup (which would likely be Purdue, of course). That game's essentially a coin flip, and as an ND fan I'll take a coin flip matchup to make the e8 since we haven't been there since what, the 70s?

 

Just my two cents, but not sure how familiar folks here have been with ND (except for other ND fans - e.g. knight)

Edited March 14, 2011 by Fotop

[LittleHurt05]

Kansas won't get by Boston U.

 

Self has already been upset by Bucknell & Bradley in the first round, he may just struggle with the "B" schools.

 

It's pretty funny that Illinois got set up with Kruger then Self in the bracket. It would be nice to finally win a tourney game again, but having to watch them get destroyed by Self in the 2nd round will kinda ruin that. Then again, I'm sure they will choke away the game vs. UNLV anyway.

[Rowand44]

I've kept fairly quiet on ND all season, mainly because it took the entire season to convince me that this year was any different than previous iterations of this team. Having said that, I've come to the belief that this is the strongest team they've had since they took down U of I to make the s16 in 2003. In fact, it's likely stronger as it's much more balanced (everyone is a threat to score) and actually plays defense despite common belief.

 

Now, they're not lockdown defenders, I'll give you that, but their defense isn't below average. Outside of Ben H., the whole starting lineup is 6'8". As a result, their length has been giving folks in the Big East fits on the defensive side. They're not good at defending the three, but I think that's their only weakness on d. They're good rebounders and above average defenders in the paint/collapsing in zone due to the aforementioned length. People are always going to dog them because they don't have any freak athletes (although Carleton Scott is a good shot blocker) and a low amount of forced turnovers. The turnovers aren't as much of a concern as people like to say it is (coughESPNcough) because their tempo is slow (so less possessions to force turnovers) and they themselves don't turn the ball over frequently.

 

I don't know much about TAMU and Fla St. but from what I've read they're both defensive minded (someone correct me if I'm wrong). I'll gamble on ND beating a team known for their defense rather than having to run and gun with some really athletic teams. ND does not play all that well from behind as their preferred pace is fairly slow. Therefore, if an opponent's pace is also slow and prefers to grind it out (which sounds like TAMU and Fla St?) I'd take my chances with ND's offensive efficiency carrying the day.

 

I think if any team has a good shot to take ND out, it's one that plays tight man to man d or provides solid 3/4 court or full court pressure to disrupt the flow of their motion offense. On the offensive side, opponents will need to have guards that can pentrate and create or dish (e.g. peyton siva of UL or kemba walker of UCONN etc - these guys give ND fits) and/or powerful 3pt shooting to expose ND's weak 3pt defense.

 

Ultimately, getting eliminated prior to the s16 should be a disappointment for this squad. Making the e8 would be great for the program, so if they do survive the first weekend, there's going to be a lot hanging on their s16 matchup (which would likely be Purdue, of course). That game's essentially a coin flip, and as an ND fan I'll take a coin flip matchup to make the e8 since we haven't been there since what, the 70s?

 

Just my two cents, but not sure how familiar folks here have been with ND (except for other ND fans - e.g. knight)

Statistically they're still really poor on the defensive end of things. They still allow over a point possession, their efficiency is way down there as well. I really couldn't care less that they don't have any freak athletes, either does Duke or Purdue but those teams get out and defend 100 times better than ND.

 

Obviously they're an odd match up for teams as they do have a bunch of taller shooters but teams that rank that low on the defensive end don't last too long in the tourny.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Statistically they're still really poor on the defensive end of things. They still allow over a point possession, they're efficiency is way down there as well. I really couldn't care less that they don't have any freak athletes, either does Duke or Purdue but those teams get out and defend 100 times better than ND.

 

Obviously they're an odd match up for teams as they do have a bunch of taller shooters but teams that rank that low on the defensive end don't last too long in the tourny.

 

Purdue would be a really interesting matchup for them. They have no one who could really defend Johnson

[Buehrle>Wood]

Pretty sure essentially every 8 team since the inception of kenpom (except one when a bracket did place a qualifier) has had a top 40 offense and defense. ND doesn't qualify.

[hitlesswonder]

Then again, I'm sure they will choke away the game vs. UNLV anyway.

 

Losing to UNLV wouldn't be choking. Did you notice who has the higher seed? UNLV is a better basketball team. Moreover they are a horrendous matchup for Illinois. UNLV traps backcourt and plays intense D with lot of ball pressure. Weber's offense historically wilts under those conditions.

[LittleHurt05]

Losing to UNLV wouldn't be choking. Did you notice who has the higher seed? UNLV is a better basketball team. Moreover they are a horrendous matchup for Illinois. UNLV traps backcourt and plays intense D with lot of ball pressure. Weber's offense historically wilts under those conditions.

 

I wasn't referring to them choking as in being the favorite, as UNLV probably is better. I was referring to them choking down the stretch of a potentially close game as they have done in nearly every close game they played this season.

[ZoomSlowik]

Pretty sure essentially every 8 team since the inception of kenpom (except one when a bracket did place a qualifier) has had a top 40 offense and defense. ND doesn't qualify.

 

Nope. Butler was 50th in offensive efficiency last year.

 

Here's the way I look at it. Texas A&M might be 39 in defensive efficiency compared to ND's 62. But the difference in points per 100 possessions allowed (that is what the efficiency ratings are, right?) is about 2.5. On the other hand, the difference between ND's 3rd ranked offensive efficiency and A&M's 62nd ranked offensive efficiency is almost 14 points per 100. That still leaves ND with something like a 11.5 point edge, which is still pretty huge.

 

Now against someone like Purdue is an entirely different story, but if Moore or Johnson has a bad game they can be beaten.

Edited March 14, 2011 by ZoomSlowik

[RockRaines]

I cant believe I'm saying this, but Illinois has the talent to beat KU, and I think could really push the Jayhawks. I really hope they play like they can play.

[whitesoxfan99]

I cant believe I'm saying this, but Illinois has the talent to beat KU, and I think could really push the Jayhawks. I really hope they play like they can play.

 

They could and because this team seems to like to make losing as painful as possible for the fans, I'm pretty much expecting them to play well and beat UNLV and then be playing well against Kansas but have the game look like any number of games this year where they play well for 30-35 minutes before pissing down their leg and losing in as painful of fashion as possible. This season wouldn't be complete without one last giant kick in the nuts.

Edited March 14, 2011 by whitesoxfan99

[Rowand44]

I cant believe I'm saying this, but Illinois has the talent to beat KU, and I think could really push the Jayhawks. I really hope they play like they can play.

Even if Illinois gets by UNLV(which I don't think they will), they matchup horribly against KU. I don't see that one happening.

[hitlesswonder]

Even if Illinois gets by UNLV(which I don't think they will), they matchup horribly against KU. I don't see that one happening.

 

I agree. I do not understand why anyone thinks Illinois is talented team anymore. They aren't. They have proven over the course of two seasons they aren't. I understand that on paper one could see a team with some tall seniors, a PG that put up a a bunch of assists and a couple of talented sophomores and think that they might do something. But that would be before the season started. At this point, we have lots of evidence that they are not a talented team.

 

I think they'll play like they have all season, and lose to UNLV (they don't have the ball skills to handle the pressure).

Edited March 14, 2011 by hitlesswonder