Slumps and Adam Dunn: they've met before

[T R U]

You hope that a switch just goes on and he becomes the monster he used to be, and that really isn't unprecedented, but it's really just a wait and see game.

 

I don't think people remember how bad Konerko was in the first half of 2003. On June 28th, Paul Konerko's OPS was .525. From July 2nd until the end of the season, Konerko put up an .865 OPS. To cherry pick further, from July 13th to September 7th, he OPS'd 1.050.

 

Dunn is definitely not going to have his typical year, but I'm going to be extremely surprised if he doesn't end up with an OPS of .800. He's had a pretty terrible year, but I would honestly say it's probably only half as bad as the year Konerko was having in 2003 - considering his OPS was more than 100 points less and strong offense was much more prevalent then.

 

He will right the ship. He won't end up with a typical 38 homer, .900 OPS Adam Dunn season, but he will right the ship.

 

Ugh, Konerko was SO bad in that first half.. its crazy that it does almost feel exactly the same with Dunn right now.. its just like, what the hell is going on??

[BigSqwert]

I truly feel sorry for Adam. This slump has got to be killing him.

[hogan873]

I truly feel sorry for Adam. This slump has got to be killing him.

I do, too. It doesn't mean I don't get very frustrated when I see him whiff over and over, or watch a third strike split the plate. You can see his frustration after every at-bat. I don't know if he'll truly rebound, but I bet hitting HRs in back to back games might help. I think a part of his slump now is mental and emotional.

Edited June 7, 2011 by pittshoganerkoff

[JohnCangelosi]

I truly feel sorry for Adam. This slump has got to be killing him.

+1

[witesoxfan]

Man I respect your optimism.

Don't you ever go by the eye test though? Throw out the past numbers?

It's the end of the first week of June and the man is LOST.

He's a DP/K machine.

 

Of course I use the eye test greg - you must have missed my Quentin thread a week ago. I've done the same thing with Dunn. I've looked at the extremely limited video I have, as well as the limited unpaid time I have (*erHEM* Sox people), and I see absolutely no difference in swing from year to year to year. I thought I saw something from 09 to 11, but it turned out to be a fan's glove in the background.

 

Players who have extremely long swings like Dunn have a tendency to go through extreme streaks. The first three relatively current players I can think of are Jim Thome, Ryan Howard, and Mark Reynolds. Thome doesn't work quite as well because, though he does have a long swing, he [f***ing STILL, to this very day, at the ripe age of 40] gets it through the zone quicker than Dunn does - there's a reason why his career batting average is .277 when he strikes out almost 25%, and that's all predicated upon bat speed and bat control. He has always been superior to Dunn in that regard, but Dunn got $10 mill more a year with an additional 3 years because he can actually stay healthy and has proven to produce similar results in the past. Considering Thome has been on the DL twice already this year, you'd be pissed if the Sox were paying him $13 mill. I seem to recall you being pissed at Thome as it was.

 

Beyond this point, I will not nor would I suggest anyone else debate the White Sox (stupid, dumbass, moronic, f*** Mark Kotsay, I mean really Mark f***ing Kotsay?) decision to not pursue Thome last season.

 

Ryan Howard, through the first 47 games of 2008 (zOMG, Dunn is more than 47 games in!!!) put up a .183/.289/.396/.686 line. His OPS was at .608 10 games previous to that, so he had been on a bit of a hot streak.

 

Mark Reynolds line from all of 2010 was .198/.320/.433/.753. I would suggest this as the worst case scenario, but I believe that Dunn has a better eye at the plate than Reynolds, so I would suggest that .200/.335/.430/.765 is about the absolute worst that can be expected upon out of Dunn. The power is ever so slightly down, but that's mostly due to me trying to round to easily addable numbers. His worst case could be .762 or .768 or .757...hell, I don't know. He's not going to be this bad all year - I KNOW that.

 

Ugh, Konerko was SO bad in that first half.. its crazy that it does almost feel exactly the same with Dunn right now.. its just like, what the hell is going on??

 

Eddie Guardado's right handed version needs to come out to pitch in extra innings with the Sox down by 1 at home so he can tie it up.

 

He'll come through it. We will probably see it in a key at bat at some point in the next 2 weeks. He'll strike out a bit afterwards, but so long as he knows he's coming out of it, then it will be.

 

/Socrates'd

/almost certainly destroyed that classical philosophical analogy

 

I truly feel sorry for Adam. This slump has got to be killing him.

 

Dude has dealt with slumps before. He's just never dealt with them with a White Sox crowd. He'll get through it. Honest to [whatever you believe in], I feel that this is something at which Ozzie excels. He is doing everything he can to take the pressure off of Dunn. At this point, with as many lefties as the Sox are facing on this homestand, it might be best just to sit him for a few games. Let him relax. Let him collect his thoughts. Give him some time in the cages where his swings mean nothing. Give someone who is going to hit better some playing time. Perhaps DHing Rios is the thing to do now...let him work strictly on his swing against pitchers he has an advantage against, but giving him instant and extended access to the coach (gahh Walker!!) after each AB.

 

I hate to say it, but really, nothing is going to hurt at this point. May as well think at least a bit outside of the box.

Edited June 7, 2011 by witesoxfan

[Steve9347]

Serious question ... are people wearing their Dunn jerseys they bought last winter to the ballpark?

THat has to be humbling.

I have a Dunn jersey shirt. I've worn it once since he returned from that appendectomy.

[justBLAZE]

CHICAGO

 

The White Sox are stuck below .500. Fan enthusiasm has been tepid. Adam Dunn, their $56 million slugger, is hitting .176.

 

MLB

DESIGNATED BITTER

Adam Dunn's struggles have teams rethinking DH decisions, Jon Paul Morosi says.

 

Jerry Reinsdorf has seen this before.

 

Sort of.

 

Reinsdorf is in his 31st season as chairman of the White Sox. He’s been the majority owner of the Chicago Bulls for 26 years, too. On Monday, while Reinsdorf watched his team take batting practice before a series against the Seattle Mariners, I asked him if, over nearly 60 seasons, he could recall one of his players struggling as Dunn has after signing a big contract.

 

“Well, the money wasn’t the same,” Reinsdorf replied, “but Julio Cruz, back in the ’80s.”

 

Cruz had arrived in a trade – from Seattle, in fact – during the 1983 season. He helped the White Sox win the division title that year, and Reinsdorf rewarded him with a six-year contract.

 

According to a United Press International report that year, the total value of the deal was between $3.6 million and $4.8 million.

 

Not quite Derrick Rose money.

 

“He was the catalyst for this team (winning) the division,” Reinsdorf said of Cruz. “He signed what was then a very big free-agent contract. He couldn’t handle it.”

 

And what was the resolution?

 

“We traded him.”

 

So … you’re saying Adam Dunn is going to be traded?

 

Reinsdorf smiled.

 

“Nope.”

 

A check of the essential Baseball-Reference.com revealed that Cruz technically was released, rather than traded, after batting a meager .213 over the next three seasons. But no matter: Dunn, 31, will neither be traded nor released anytime soon.

 

The irony, though, is that Dunn’s struggles could lead indirectly to changes elsewhere – if the White Sox can’t sustain their recent climb in the American League Central. Even after Monday’s 3-1 win over Seattle, Chicago remains six games behind first-place Cleveland.

 

During our conversation, Reinsdorf expressed confidence in general manager Kenny Williams and manager Ozzie Guillen, as only he could. When asked if he is satisfied in the job performance of Williams and Guillen, Reinsdorf smiled and replied, “They’re here, aren’t they?” The chairman added that he expects both men to return next year, as well.

 

But let’s not forget the essential storyline of the 2011 White Sox: After the team won 88 games last year, Reinsdorf was faced with a decision. As Paul Konerko, A.J. Pierzynski, and others hit free agency, would the chairman cut payroll and go with younger, cheaper talent? Or would he retain the veteran core and augment it by pouring millions more into the team?

 

Reinsdorf opted for the latter. He increased the Opening Day payroll to $127.8 million, up from $105.5 million last year, according to the USA Today salary database.

 

The White Sox now have the highest payroll in the division. Of equal importance, they have the highest payroll in Chicago.

 

So far, though, the dividend hasn’t been there – on the field or at the gate. Guillen’s guys haven’t had a winning record since Tax Day. And despite playing in the nation’s third-largest city, the White Sox ranked 20th in average home attendance through Sunday (22,886).

 

“We have a much bigger payroll than we had last year,” Reinsdorf said. “And we’re on pace to draw the same number of people. Obviously, that makes it tougher financially. But we’ll be OK.”

 

Think about it from a business perspective: A bigger investment in the product should equal more wins – or least more hot dogs sold. It’s enough to make you wonder whether a scorching six weeks will be necessary to prevent a selloff at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

 

CASH COWS

See which MLB stars earn the highest annual salaries, who's in the $100 million club and which player makes the most at each position.

 

When asked if there’s a date by which the team must make serious progress in order to avoid cost-cutting trades, Reinsdorf said, “Not yet. We haven’t picked any dates. But we think we’re going to move (up in the standings). We think we’re going to be all right. I still think we have the best team in the division. Once Dunn starts hitting, he can carry a whole ballclub.”

 

That hasn’t happened yet. Dunn went 0-for-4 again Monday. He received polite applause when he came to the plate for his first at-bat. It didn’t last. He was booed after he struck out in the fourth. He was booed after he grounded into a double play in the seventh. He was really booed after he struck out with the bases loaded in the eighth.

 

For good measure, he committed an error at first base. He didn’t stick around afterward to talk with reporters, and it’s hard to blame him for that.

 

“You try to give him confidence, you try to help him out (as a teammate), but it comes down to him, and hopefully he figures it out real soon,” Pierzynski said. “He has good swings. That’s the thing. It looks like he’s on every pitch. He has these at-bats where you’re like, ‘OK, he’s got it.’ Then he has another at-bat where it’s like, ‘Oh, OK.’ But the one thing about him is he hasn’t really lost confidence. He’s still battling. That’s all you can really ask for. I tip my cap to the guy. He’s handled it a lot better than I would.”

 

White Sox hitting coach Greg Walker praised Dunn for his work ethic, mentioning that he has taken extra batting practice several times in the past week. “Listen, he’s going to be here for a long time,” Walker said. “He’s going to make this ballpark look real small.”

 

I asked Reinsdorf if he had spoken with Dunn recently.

 

“Not much,” he answered. “I don’t like to bother a guy when he’s not going good. Probably everybody’s telling him what they think.

 

“What’s past is past. I don’t know that he’s going to take his average all the way from what it is today to his normal average. But I would think, the rest of the year, he’ll be what he normally is. It’s just a matter of confidence.”

 

HAVE A FIELD DAY

Come for the game, stay for the party. Find out everything you need to know to enjoy the grand old game.

 

The faith of Reinsdorf and others in this team isn’t misplaced: One year ago this week, the White Sox started a 25-5 run to end the first half, tying a major league record for the best 30-game mark leading into the All-Star break. The White Sox went from 9-1/2 games back to a 1/2-game lead. If Dunn and Alex Rios (.199) revive their bats, a similar turnaround isn’t out of the question.

 

Perhaps with that in mind, Reinsdorf stood behind the batting cage for 10 or 15 minutes on Monday, chatting with Walker as the White Sox took their swings. “He’s been a great friend for a long time,” Walker said. “At the end of the year last year, we knew he had a big decision to make. He went all in. We know we’ve got a better team than what we’re performing. Handling pressure is the biggest part of this game.”

 

As the two spoke, the right-field scoreboard at U.S. Cellular Field scrolled through a series of Mariners photographs and factoids: historic achievements, important dates, notable players. It’s a nice, quasi-educational gesture that the White Sox offer in honor of visiting teams.

 

One image caught my eye: Under the heading of GREAT PLAYERS IN SEATTLE MARINERS HISTORY, there was a young second baseman, No. 6, wearing the powder-blue Mariners uniform of long ago.

 

It was Julio Cruz.

 

Jerry seems to agree with wite.

[greg775]

Of course I use the eye test greg - you must have missed my Quentin thread a week ago. I've done the same thing with Dunn. I've looked at the extremely limited video I have, as well as the limited unpaid time I have (*erHEM* Sox people), and I see absolutely no difference in swing from year to year to year. I thought I saw something from 09 to 11, but it turned out to be a fan's glove in the background.

 

Players who have extremely long swings like Dunn have a tendency to go through extreme streaks. The first three relatively current players I can think of are Jim Thome, Ryan Howard, and Mark Reynolds. Thome doesn't work quite as well because, though he does have a long swing, he [f***ing STILL, to this very day, at the ripe age of 40] gets it through the zone quicker than Dunn does - there's a reason why his career batting average is .277 when he strikes out almost 25%, and that's all predicated upon bat speed and bat control. He has always been superior to Dunn in that regard, but Dunn got $10 mill more a year with an additional 3 years because he can actually stay healthy and has proven to produce similar results in the past. Considering Thome has been on the DL twice already this year, you'd be pissed if the Sox were paying him $13 mill. I seem to recall you being pissed at Thome as it was.

 

Beyond this point, I will not nor would I suggest anyone else debate the White Sox (stupid, dumbass, moronic, f*** Mark Kotsay, I mean really Mark f***ing Kotsay?) decision to not pursue Thome last season.

 

Ryan Howard, through the first 47 games of 2008 (zOMG, Dunn is more than 47 games in!!!) put up a .183/.289/.396/.686 line. His OPS was at .608 10 games previous to that, so he had been on a bit of a hot streak.

 

Mark Reynolds line from all of 2010 was .198/.320/.433/.753. I would suggest this as the worst case scenario, but I believe that Dunn has a better eye at the plate than Reynolds, so I would suggest that .200/.335/.430/.765 is about the absolute worst that can be expected upon out of Dunn. The power is ever so slightly down, but that's mostly due to me trying to round to easily addable numbers. His worst case could be .762 or .768 or .757...hell, I don't know. He's not going to be this bad all year - I KNOW that.

 

 

 

Eddie Guardado's right handed version needs to come out to pitch in extra innings with the Sox down by 1 at home so he can tie it up.

 

He'll come through it. We will probably see it in a key at bat at some point in the next 2 weeks. He'll strike out a bit afterwards, but so long as he knows he's coming out of it, then it will be.

 

/Socrates'd

/almost certainly destroyed that classical philosophical analogy

 

 

 

Dude has dealt with slumps before. He's just never dealt with them with a White Sox crowd. He'll get through it. Honest to [whatever you believe in], I feel that this is something at which Ozzie excels. He is doing everything he can to take the pressure off of Dunn. At this point, with as many lefties as the Sox are facing on this homestand, it might be best just to sit him for a few games. Let him relax. Let him collect his thoughts. Give him some time in the cages where his swings mean nothing. Give someone who is going to hit better some playing time. Perhaps DHing Rios is the thing to do now...let him work strictly on his swing against pitchers he has an advantage against, but giving him instant and extended access to the coach (gahh Walker!!) after each AB.

 

I hate to say it, but really, nothing is going to hurt at this point. May as well think at least a bit outside of the box.

 

I like the last part of the post starting with 'Dude has dealt with slumps before.'

That's what I've been suggesting. He needs a break, especially against the tough lefty pitching that you point out is coming.

[Bubba Philips]

I have a Dunn jersey shirt. I've worn it once since he returned from that appendectomy.

WHoever said that an appendix is not a useful organ, didn't realize that in certain individuals the baseball talent dwells. WHat else could it be? He has played horribly since the organ's removal.

Edited June 7, 2011 by forrestg

[max power]

Dunn's appendix is like Samson's hair.

[southsider2k5]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/stor...rumblings110607

 

Adam Dunn

 

The White Sox love their home run trots. So in a world of disappearing power, Dunn sure seemed like a sensible investment last winter, at four years for $56 million. He didn't just come into the season as the only player in baseball working on a streak of seven straight seasons with at least 38 home runs. He was the only player with a streak of more than two of those seasons.

 

So while you could have figured he'd have some adjusting to do after 10 years in the National League, nobody saw him going 0-for-2 months against left-handed pitching, or running up a gruesome .309 slugging percentage, even with a fun-filled appendectomy thrown in there for amusement purposes only. Granted, Dunn's dependable track record was compiled with his appendix intact. But everybody we surveyed still predicts those long balls ought to be flying again any minute now.

 

"He's really feeling his way around a new league," said one scout. "He just can't get comfortable with all these new pitchers he's seeing. But there's nothing wrong with him. He's got the same presence. His mechanics at the plate look fine. I'd bet on him having a big second half, actually."

[Buehrlesque]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/stor...rumblings110607

Eh, I get that things affect different people differently, but I don't know about the whole NL to AL thing. It hasn't affected Adrian Gonzalez. With interleague play and so much player movement these days, that rationale seems like a crutch. That doesn't mean Dunn won't have a monster second half though.

[knightni]

I wonder if he needs his eyes checked.

[greg775]

I have a Dunn jersey shirt. I've worn it once since he returned from that appendectomy.

 

I wonder what would happen if you wore it to a game this week. Would some of the fans laugh at your or jeer you, or just shut up and let it be?

[LittleHurt05]

I wonder what would happen if you wore it to a game this week. Would some of the fans laugh at your or jeer you, or just shut up and let it be?

 

What would you say to Steve if you saw him in his Dunn jersey shirt at a game?

[greg775]

What would you say to Steve if you saw him in his Dunn jersey shirt at a game?

 

"Hi Steve, if it is really you from the Sox board, I'll buy you a beer."

[LittleHurt05]

"Hi Steve, if it is really you from the Sox board, I'll buy you a beer."

 

LOL, nice.

[greg775]

LOL, nice.

 

And congrats to Dunn for the homer tonight. In the interview he said he was bound and determined to conquer the DH role.

Maybe he'll get hot.

If he dominates the summer months, the boos will be long forgotten and he'll hear steady cheers. The guy is so big you'd think just making consistent contact would result in some dingers.

 

[Pale Sox]

And congrats to Dunn for the homer tonight. In the interview he said he was bound and determined to conquer the DH role.

Maybe he'll get hot.

If he dominates the summer months, the boos will be long forgotten and he'll hear steady cheers. The guy is so big you'd think just making consistent contact would result in some dingers.

It will. His HR tonight would have been a routine flyball off almost anybody else's bat.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Please let this be the beginning of a .950+ OPS from here on out. He owes us that.

[Pale Sox]

Please let this be the beginning of a .950+ OPS from here on out. He owes us that.

I second that with every fibre of my being.

[witesoxfan]

Or he swung real hard and his bat hit a ball. That is a scenario I can guarantee to 100% certainty.

 

Hopefully he has his timing back. Even as the creator of this thread, I won't believe it until I see that he hit a legitimate fastball.

[southsider2k5]

It will. His HR tonight would have been a routine flyball off almost anybody else's bat.

 

In most stadiums you are right. He really did hit the ball well tonight. I thought he hit that ball in his last AB out too. Maybe something as little as the HBP in his first AB is what gets him going again.

[southsider2k5]

Dunn is really starting to look more dangerous. Even his foul balls are getting hit hard.

[greg775]

If Dunn starting right now becomes the old Dunn, the White Sox would be in pretty good shape lineup wise.

That's assuming Rios becomes a .250 hitter the second half and Gordon gets hot and AJ at least continues to hit as he has thus far this season.