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Slumps and Adam Dunn: they've met before

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Adam Dunn is currently at .180/.329/.326/.654. That is an OBP higher than a slugging percentage. That is a damn near statistical anomaly in itself. He has played in 50 games, which is just less than 1/3 of a full major league season. All hope is lost for him doing anything for the next 2/3.

 

Though, of course, it's not. With a player who has the "consistency" of Adam Dunn (only month in his career with an OPS below .872 is September/October, when he's at .771, but I blame that mostly on him having no motivation considering he's played on a losing team for so long), he has slumped like this before.

 

Dating back to his first full year in the league...

 

2002 - Aug 2 to Sept 29 - 54 G, 49 GS - .171/.302/.283/.585

2003 - Jul 9 to Aug 15 - 33 G, 32 GS - .214/.350/.321/.672

2004 - Aug 17 to Sept 24 - 35 G, 34 GS - .198/.336/.421/.757

2006 - Aug 2 to Oct 1 - 55 G, 54 GS - .174/.308/.332/.639

2009 - Aug 24 to Oct 4 - 36 G, 35 GS - .198/.318/.341/.659

 

There was also a stretch, in either 2007 or 2008, where he put up a line of something like .200/.350/.450 over a 50-60 game stretch where he hit 15 homers, but I figured people would get on my case because he ran into 10 more balls instead of missing them. His BABIP was still garbage.

 

Yeah, nitpick if you want to - HE'S ONLY DONE THIS ONCE IN THE LAST 5 YEARS AND 3 OF THOSE ARE FEWER THAN 40 GAMES - they are still month long sustained slumps and, believe it or not, Adam Dunn worked his way out of those.

 

Not gonna do anything without some sabermetric help either. Adam Dunn, throughout his career, has a career BABIP of .295 and a HR/FB of 21.9%. Considering he's put those up over a period of almost 6300 PAs, I'd say those are sustainable rates. Currently, he's at .265 and 9.6%. The BABIP may not come up - there's history to indicate that he can stay below that - but that HR/FB is going to come up.

 

So he [probably] won't hit 40 homers. No biggie. The worst OPS he put up, other than that crappy 2003 (where he ended up with an .819 OPS, shoot me in the face that's so bad) were .854 in 2002 and .855 in 2006. Otherwise, he's been at or above .890.

 

The premise of the post is that Adam Dunn is going to turn it around. Anybody who is seriously worried about him is fooling themselves. All Ozzie can do is keep doing what he's doing.

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Great stuff as always, Wite.

 

I sure am glad you have no life and therefore have time to post stuff like this...

 

;)

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All of those slumps were late in the season where he may have been tired from taking few days off. Dunn will turn it around, but he sure has some WORK tadoooo! /DJ. Booing Dunn will not help. He is not Dewayne Wise. Booing will not get him sent to the minors. Booing Dunn is stupid. Those fans have the right to boo and Dunn's performance is boo worthy so far in his slump. Booing Dunn is stupid because it can only hurt. GO! ADAM! GO! SOX!!Something to think about next time we are pissing on a statue

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When Frank Thomas was on Boers and Bernstein, Bernstein asked him if he was surprised about Dunn's slump. Thomas answered that no, he knew it was going to happen for the first couple of months. He blamed it on the transition to DH and said that he himself lost 30 points off his BA during his transition.

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QUOTE (Swingandalongonetoleft @ Jun 3, 2011 -> 08:02 AM)
When Frank Thomas was on Boers and Bernstein, Bernstein asked him if he was surprised about Dunn's slump. Thomas answered that no, he knew it was going to happen for the first couple of months. He blamed it on the transition to DH and said that he himself lost 30 points off his BA during his transition.

 

Being more of a student of the game than a stat-man, the interesting part of that conversation was Frank talking about how the mental part of the game changes when you DH. That podcast is a must-listen.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jun 3, 2011 -> 06:58 AM)
Adam Dunn is currently at .180/.329/.326/.654. That is an OBP higher than a slugging percentage. That is a damn near statistical anomaly in itself. He has played in 50 games, which is just less than 1/3 of a full major league season. All hope is lost for him doing anything for the next 2/3.

 

Though, of course, it's not. With a player who has the "consistency" of Adam Dunn (only month in his career with an OPS below .872 is September/October, when he's at .771, but I blame that mostly on him having no motivation considering he's played on a losing team for so long), he has slumped like this before.

 

Dating back to his first full year in the league...

 

2002 - Aug 2 to Sept 29 - 54 G, 49 GS - .171/.302/.283/.585

2003 - Jul 9 to Aug 15 - 33 G, 32 GS - .214/.350/.321/.672

2004 - Aug 17 to Sept 24 - 35 G, 34 GS - .198/.336/.421/.757

2006 - Aug 2 to Oct 1 - 55 G, 54 GS - .174/.308/.332/.639

2009 - Aug 24 to Oct 4 - 36 G, 35 GS - .198/.318/.341/.659

 

There was also a stretch, in either 2007 or 2008, where he put up a line of something like .200/.350/.450 over a 50-60 game stretch where he hit 15 homers, but I figured people would get on my case because he ran into 10 more balls instead of missing them. His BABIP was still garbage.

 

Yeah, nitpick if you want to - HE'S ONLY DONE THIS ONCE IN THE LAST 5 YEARS AND 3 OF THOSE ARE FEWER THAN 40 GAMES - they are still month long sustained slumps and, believe it or not, Adam Dunn worked his way out of those.

 

Not gonna do anything without some sabermetric help either. Adam Dunn, throughout his career, has a career BABIP of .295 and a HR/FB of 21.9%. Considering he's put those up over a period of almost 6300 PAs, I'd say those are sustainable rates. Currently, he's at .265 and 9.6%. The BABIP may not come up - there's history to indicate that he can stay below that - but that HR/FB is going to come up.

 

So he [probably] won't hit 40 homers. No biggie. The worst OPS he put up, other than that crappy 2003 (where he ended up with an .819 OPS, shoot me in the face that's so bad) were .854 in 2002 and .855 in 2006. Otherwise, he's been at or above .890.

 

The premise of the post is that Adam Dunn is going to turn it around. Anybody who is seriously worried about him is fooling themselves. All Ozzie can do is keep doing what he's doing.

My only question is... where is your blog and why haven't you started it yet?

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Holy mother of Jesus f***. Dunn's K% is 41.3%. That's by far the highest of his career (which is saying something). The next highest in baseball is Jack Cust at 34.8%.

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Good stuff...............I hope he gets hot with the weather. :gosox1:

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QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Jun 3, 2011 -> 10:46 AM)
better pitching in the AL is kicking his ass. I suspect he'll show improvement next season.

 

How is the pitching that much better in the AL? If you compared the leagues, it would be close, maybe in the NL's favor

 

Dunn's division last year alone had Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Johnson, Nolasco, Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, I'm sure I am missing a name or two.

Edited by LittleHurt05

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jun 3, 2011 -> 09:15 AM)
How is the pitching that much better in the AL? If you compared the leagues, it would be close, maybe in the NL's favor

 

Dunn's division last year alone had Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Johnson, Nolasco, Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, I'm sure I am missing a name or two.

Really, even factoring in the DH? Like Pierre said last year and others contend as well, you see a lot more off speed stuff in the AL, a lot more deception.

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QUOTE (Chet Kincaid @ Jun 3, 2011 -> 11:27 AM)
I just hope that it's not a situation where the Sox are out of it and he starts hitting everything in sight.

 

Also what I expect.

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It would be so much more encouraging if those slumps took place at different parts of the season. Right now those stats seem to back up the assumption of him being out of shape and having no passion for the game, IMO.

 

Dunn will almost undoubtedly improve, you gotta really try to keep up his level of suckage.

 

However, the one thing those stats don't account for is bat speed. His bat is so freaking slow and he is having trouble catching up to fastballs in the low 90s. I don't know who has less bat speed, him or Beckham.

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greg is gonna freak out when he sees this thread

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QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Jun 3, 2011 -> 11:36 AM)
Really, even factoring in the DH? Like Pierre said last year and others contend as well, you see a lot more off speed stuff in the AL, a lot more deception.

 

I thought you were referring strictly to talent, which is definitely not the case, especially coming from the NL East.

 

How much effect would the DH have on a guy hitting in the middle of the lineup anyway? I understand if you are hitting near the pitcher, but AL or NL, if you are a 3 or 4 hitter, you are tough (other than the Padres), and the pitcher will have to battle you. I don't see how much would differ for a hitter like that.

 

edit: oops, meant the NL East

Edited by LittleHurt05

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I like the fact he has been walking a lot more recently. I am hoping that means he is starting to see the ball better, and soon the bat of the beast will come around. I WANT SOME 500 FOOT HOMERS DAMN IT!

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QUOTE (Chet Kincaid @ Jun 3, 2011 -> 01:15 PM)
I wonder of Dunn will change his off season (if he even has one) routine. He has to be embarrassed.

He supposedly over-did it with the walking away from baseball routine this winter. I'd imagine this is the last time he does that one.

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The premise of the post is that Adam Dunn is going to turn it around. Anybody who is seriously worried about him is fooling themselves. All Ozzie can do is keep doing what he's doing.

 

Cmon it's June 3. It's more than a slump. The man has been horrific.

If he turns it around, great for our team, but I wouldn't assume anything.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 3, 2011 -> 01:11 PM)
He supposedly over-did it with the walking away from baseball routine this winter. I'd imagine this is the last time he does that one.

Wasn't there some article during spring that said he had tried swinging a lot and swinging a little in the off season, and it never really made a difference? So this year he went with the "never pick up a bat" approach?

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QUOTE (The Baconator @ Jun 3, 2011 -> 02:35 PM)
Wasn't there some article during spring that said he had tried swinging a lot and swinging a little in the off season, and it never really made a difference? So this year he went with the "never pick up a bat" approach?

Correct.

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