Jared Mitchell 2012 - Improvement on the way?

[chisoxfan09]

Good article up about some simple analysis between Mitchell's 2011 year and so far in 2012 (Although 90 AB's between ST and Double A is a small smaple size). Let's hope he gets it together to avoid the 1st round bust label.

 

Link: http://www.csnchicago.com/baseball-chicago...&feedID=621

 

 

[caulfield12]

Good article up about some simple analysis between Mitchell's 2011 year and so far in 2012 (Although 90 AB's between ST and Double A is a small smaple size). Let's hope he gets it together to avoid the 1st round bust label.

 

Link: http://www.csnchicago.com/baseball-chicago...&feedID=621

 

 

Way, way too early to use a term like first-round bust when he's only had one full season of professional baseball, coming off the injury.

 

Not to mention he split time with football at LSU.

 

And he wasn't even close to being a high first-round draft pick, it's much harder to define someone as a bust in the last 5-10 picks of the 1st.

 

 

He might not end up being a leadoff hitter, like a Crawford, that steals 30-40-50 bags per year, but he's definitely shown a lot of explosiveness at the plate, and that's the most encouraging thing, the ball is jumping off his bat and he's feeling confidence in that ankle to go after triples and stolen bases. That and the fact that he's already managed to hit double figures in walks, so it's not just K or nothing.

 

And all those statistics would look even better if you include last night's 2 for 5 with his first homer and five RBI's.

 

You can definitely see him hitting 9th in a major league line-up and bringing tons of excitement to that spot, paired with DeAza. Of course, at this point, the jury's still out on Dayan Viciedo. It's nice to know we have our best potential impact player as insurance emerging behind him.

 

If Beckham and Morel can get their acts straightened out, this whole thing could come together quite nicely.

[Cali]

When he didn't swing and miss in ST the ball really jumped off Mitchell's bat. I can remember some solid hits right back up the middle from him on consecutive AB's. It's good that he already has that idea and is not getting pull happy...

[macsandz]

Good article up about some simple analysis between Mitchell's 2011 year and so far in 2012 (Although 90 AB's between ST and Double A is a small smaple size). Let's hope he gets it together to avoid the 1st round bust label.

 

Link: http://www.csnchicago.com/baseball-chicago...&feedID=621

 

Mitchell drove in 5 runs with HR last night. He leads the Southern League with 15 RBIs in his first 16 games.

[Balta1701]

Mitchell drove in 5 runs with HR last night. He leads the Southern League with 15 RBIs in his first 16 games.

Must have been one helluva HR for them to give him 5 RBI on it.

[Dick Allen]

Must have been one helluva HR for them to give him 5 RBI on it.

It was crushed

[Soxfest]

Must have been one helluva HR for them to give him 5 RBI on it.

 

[chisoxfan09]

24 games in and leading the Southern in BA (.341) and OBP (.471). Only 21 K's in 82 AB's. Not shabby at all.

 

 

 

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

0/3 tonight with a BB. No ks

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

24 games in and leading the Southern in BA (.341) and OBP (.471). Only 21 K's in 82 AB's. Not shabby at all.

 

Look at his PA, not his AB. Unfair to say he was 0/1 with 1 K and 3 BB in a game and say he has a 100% strikeout rate.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Look at his PA, not his AB. Unfair to say he was 0/1 with 1 K and 3 BB in a game and say he has a 100% strikeout rate.

 

21K in 105 PA so far. 20% SO rate which is completely fine considering the power numbers, BA and walk rate (20 BB) he has had

[Balta1701]

21K in 105 PA so far. 20% SO rate which is completely fine considering the power numbers, BA and walk rate (20 BB) he has had

Over a 600 PA season, 20% SO rate is 120 K's, if it translated directly. If a guy is walking a lot and hits 20 HR, that's still a very useful player. Not an MVP, but that's a player somewhere between BJ Upton and the healthy Grady Sizemore.

[fathom]

Baseball America's latest issue had a scout's take on Mitchell, and there was some concern that his injury made him lose a significant amount of speed. I still think he'll have enough speed though to be a valuable MLB player, as I've always been impressed with how ball flies off his bat.

[danman31]

I have a hard time believing an ankle injury significantly took away speed. Short-term, or maybe even a couple years after, but long-term that just doesn't make sense to me.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Over a 600 PA season, 20% SO rate is 120 K's, if it translated directly. If a guy is walking a lot and hits 20 HR, that's still a very useful player. Not an MVP, but that's a player somewhere between BJ Upton and the healthy Grady Sizemore.

 

20% is definitely acceptable. Right now, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce all have rates higher than 20%.

 

 

Right now, Mitchell has a 19.8 K%, and a 18.9 BB%. That's Jose Bautista and Joey Votto like rates over the past 3 seasons.

 

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Baseball America's latest issue had a scout's take on Mitchell, and there was some concern that his injury made him lose a significant amount of speed. I still think he'll have enough speed though to be a valuable MLB player, as I've always been impressed with how ball flies off his bat.

 

I sure haven't seen him, but if he has lost that much speed and is still cranking out triples at the rate that he is now... He must have had Billy Hamilton speed before. Either that or the scout saw Mitchell last year while he was still not fully healthy.

[Balta1701]

20% is definitely acceptable. Right now, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce all have rates higher than 20%.

 

 

Right now, Mitchell has a 19.8 K%, and a 18.9 BB%. That's Jose Bautista and Joey Votto like rates over the past 3 seasons.

Note the common thread in those names though...every one of them is a serious power bat. If you're putting up 10-15 home runs, then 20% K's is going to leave you with a low average and low OBP. If you're hitting 30+ HR, that's when you stop caring about the 20% strikeouts.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Note the common thread in those names though...every one of them is a serious power bat. If you're putting up 10-15 home runs, then 20% K's is going to leave you with a low average and low OBP. If you're hitting 30+ HR, that's when you stop caring about the 20% strikeouts.

 

Not if your walk rate is virtually identical to your strikeout rate

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Note the common thread in those names though...every one of them is a serious power bat. If you're putting up 10-15 home runs, then 20% K's is going to leave you with a low average and low OBP. If you're hitting 30+ HR, that's when you stop caring about the 20% strikeouts.

 

Well then Ben Zobrist if you'd like. He has a 21 K% and a 18 BB% and is pretty much a 15 HR guy.

 

It's just hard to find any speed players to compare because most of them walk considerably less than Mitchell does. So power hitters seem to be the only ones who match up in those 2 categories. Bottom line though, 20% is nothing to be worried about. 15% or less would be perfect, 25% would be really pushing it. But 20% is just fine.

Edited May 3, 2012 by JoeCoolMan24

[Balta1701]

Not if your walk rate is virtually identical to your strikeout rate

There are only a handful of guys in MLB who keep up that kind of walk rate. The only guy in the last 3 seasons to have a walk rate greater than 17.5% was Jose Bautista, last year. It's still pretty darn good if he's walking 15% of the time, but the strikeouts could still be an issue at that point, winds up depending on the pwoer.

[Balta1701]

Well then Ben Zobrist if you'd like. He has a 21 K% and a 18 BB% and is pretty much a 15 HR guy.

 

It's just hard to find any speed players to compare because most of them walk considerably less than Mitchell does. So power hitters seem to be the only ones who match up in those 2 categories. Bottom line though, 20% is nothing to be worried about. 15% or less would be perfect, 25% would be really pushing it. But 20% is just fine.

Zobrist is a career 15% BB/PA guy, and he's had 2 solid seasons with 20+ HR.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Zobrist is a career 15% BB/PA guy, and he's had 2 solid seasons with 20+ HR.

 

uh....ok.

 

Anyway, note the actual important part of my post. 20% is nothing to be worried about, especially if he is posting a walk rate that high.

[ptatc]

I have a hard time believing an ankle injury significantly took away speed. Short-term, or maybe even a couple years after, but long-term that just doesn't make sense to me.

His injury wasn't an ankle sprain or a "routine" injury. He ruptured his posterior tibialis tendon off the bone. This muscle basically controls the motion of your arch during walking or running. I don't know if he lost any speed. However, it is very feasible that he could, temporarily or permanently.

[caulfield12]

I'm guessing maybe that scout compared his times to 1B from his days at LSU with last season (or perhaps this season)....or 1st to 3rd, 1st to home, or maybe it was simply an "eyeball observation" like most of us made with Pierre last year.

 

Could be that he just noticed the tentativeness on the basepaths and compared that to his debut in the AFL or back to his LSU days.

 

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/blog/_/n...all/id/4271203/

Orel Hershiser's take back from the CWS Days...makes you feel encouraged to read stuff like that.

 

 

I found an old NFL draft preview and Jared ran 4.45 (lowest), 4.59 (highest) and 4.52 was the average for the 40 yard dash.

That's about 0.10 or even 0.15 off the average for a true burner/deep threat in the NFL.

 

So you're probably talking at least a step slower to 1B than say Carl Crawford or Ichiro in their primes, and definitely the stolen base technique and confidence isn't quite back 100%, either, but the bat is the biggest thing right now, along with the K rate and walks and overall defensive improvement compared to what he displayed in 2011.

Edited May 3, 2012 by caulfield12

[RockRaines]

I'd like to see how many MLB players could run a sub 4.5 40. Thats incredibly fast.