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Quintana

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QUOTE (kev211 @ May 30, 2012 -> 05:02 PM)
And have Sale and Peavy start less games. No thanks.

Well I hear you but the idea is to save their arms a bit. Our rotation consists of a lot of guys with questionable durability...

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QUOTE (flavum @ May 30, 2012 -> 06:14 PM)
I don't actually think they should do this, but the thought came to me that maybe they should shut Sale down now until after the break. Keep Quintana going through interleague and the rest of the first half. If he's good, then maybe you feel comfortable trading Floyd. Then Sale gets 15 starts/100 innings in the second half. That would put him at 155-160 innings going into the postseason.

 

 

ptac seemed encouraged about his mechanics.

 

It almost would seem more likely if you just shut him down and limited his side work that he might end up being more likely to get injured when he came back and then felt too strong...I don't think what's the science behind that view, but whatever the eventual strategy turns out to be, it's going to be second-guessed.

 

Cooper's already getting annoyed with the "rear seat driver" criticism.

Edited by caulfield12

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QUOTE (Jake @ May 30, 2012 -> 06:05 PM)
You realize Sale pitching less is what we need to happen. 200 innings from him is potentially disastrous and reckless on our part. If we can limit his innings without making his individual starts shorter and without making him stop permanently in the middle of a pennant run, that'd be perfect. Peavy likely falls into this category too, along with Humber.

 

I'd support having Quintana pitch a few games for Sale to give him extra rest. If we're going to be in contention, we're probably going to need Sale to be able to contribute late in the season. I think we have to play it by ear for awhile, though.

 

 

 

 

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 30, 2012 -> 06:33 PM)
ptac seemed encouraged about his mechanics.

 

It almost would seem more likely if you just shut him down and limited his side work that he might end up being more likely to get injured when he came back and then felt too strong...I don't think what's the science behind that view, but whatever the eventual strategy turns out to be, it's going to be second-guessed.

 

Cooper's already getting annoyed with the "rear seat driver" criticism.

 

It's a scary thing with Sale. Probably the best thing for him is just watch his innings. Cooper watches the pitch count--don't let him tell you otherwise.

 

Sox have a 4 run lead after 6 innings? Pull him.

 

Sox have a big lead after 5 innings? Pull him.

 

Skipping a start or two if the Sox open up a big division lead? Absolutely.

 

They have to worry about the business of winning without being stupid with Sale. It's a tough thing.

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I wouldn't mind sending down Stewart and having him be a long man/spot guy.

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As good as Q has been spot-filling, sending him down to AAA and getting him more experience would be the best thing. Or if he goes back to AA where he started this year.

 

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Send him down and let him keep starting. Keep him ready just in case because the odds are we will need another starter at some point in the season.

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I feel really bad for the kid having what seemed to be shaping up to be another good outing taken from him from that ump. We shouldn't have been throwing at anybody, but the ejection was ridiculous and despite how well he's done that could be his last major league pitch...and that sucks. You never know what happens when he gets sent down. It's likely that the only thing to do here is send him down. I don't really want him missing starts. It's crazy how this kid with no stuff is jumping to the top of our prospect ranks.

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QUOTE (OilCan @ May 30, 2012 -> 06:44 PM)
As good as Q has been spot-filling, sending him down to AAA and getting him more experience would be the best thing.

I agree with this. Having him and Axelrod down in AAA gives us two solid insurance starters for this year while allowing them to continue developing in preparation for next.

 

Also, you don't trade any of our starters if you plan on competing.

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QUOTE (Heads22 @ May 30, 2012 -> 07:41 PM)
I wouldn't mind sending down Stewart and having him be a long man/spot guy.

I might like that more if e wasn't a lefty. My word, 4 lefties in a bullpen? Im not sure if I would care how good they are.

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QUOTE (JohnCangelosi @ May 30, 2012 -> 07:31 PM)
Well I hear you but the idea is to save their arms a bit. Our rotation consists of a lot of guys with questionable durability...

Frankly, with Peavy, we may as well pitch him as much as possible until he really wears out. It's not like we're saving him for next year.

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Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi

 

Brandon Morrow hit with a line drive in lower right leg. Can’t put weight on it. Helped off field. Could be disastrous for #BlueJays hopes.

 

Floyd for Lawrie straight up.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 30, 2012 -> 06:27 PM)
I might like that more if e wasn't a lefty. My word, 4 lefties in a bullpen? Im not sure if I would care how good they are.

 

 

But Quintana's actually much more effective against right-handed hitters.

 

Isn't having the right balance there more important than right or left-handedness?

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Santiago, for one, has a much lower average against righties but they have a higher OPS against him. I wonder what pitches he's giving up these hits on.

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Sale is more than likely gonna have an innings cap so you send Q down and set him up to take over when Sale gets closed down....If Axelrod or Doyle continue to look like major league SPs in AAA at the deadline then maybe the Sox can move Gavin for some 3B help..

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QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ May 31, 2012 -> 12:09 AM)
Sale is more than likely gonna have an innings cap so you send Q down and set him up to take over when Sale gets closed down....If Axelrod or Doyle continue to look like major league SPs in AAA at the deadline then maybe the Sox can move Gavin for some 3B help..

 

Very good point!

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QUOTE (flavum @ May 30, 2012 -> 06:14 PM)
I don't actually think they should do this, but the thought came to me that maybe they should shut Sale down now until after the break. Keep Quintana going through interleague and the rest of the first half. If he's good, then maybe you feel comfortable trading Floyd. Then Sale gets 15 starts/100 innings in the second half. That would put him at 155-160 innings going into the postseason.

 

Yes, let's move him from the rotation to the bullpen to the rotation to shutting him down BACK to the rotation. THAT'S how you develop a young arm.

 

 

Good lord.

 

---

 

The biggest stigma of limiting young pitcher's innings on the Internet generally stems from the Verducci Effect. The Verducci Effect stems from Verducci's conversation's and trust within Rick Peterson's school of teaching. And, just so we are all aware, Rick Peterson has not been a pitching coach in the Major Leagues since 2010.

 

 

To clarify the rule here, it tracks the proceeding season of a pitcher 25 years or younger who increased their workload by 30 or more innings who pitched in the major leagues during that season. The 2 rules for the season after that...the season Verducci tracks...are that:

 

1) The pitcher can't get hurt

2) The pitcher can't put up a worse ERA

 

which means that, yes, in fact, John Danks is a case of the Year After Effect because he put up a 3.77 ERA in 2009. Nevermind the fact that he was a legitimate #2 starting pitcher, noooooo, he is a perfect example a pitcher who faced the ramifications of a super increased workload the following season.

 

If anything, he's looking like the perfect example of the reason why you don't resign pitchers to long-term contracts.

 

Oh, BTW, David Price, also a perfect example of the Year After Effect. I mean, come on, 2.72 ERA in 208 innings compared to 3.49 ERA in 224 innings? OBVIOUS REGRESSION AND HE IS TERRIBLE.

 

It's overly cited and generally overblown. There is some credence to it, naturally, but to inhibit a pitcher from continuing their development because they've reached the 30 inning threshold? It's stupid. If those 30 innings are going to seriously endanger their careers, then they weren't going to succeed anyways, and if those 30 innings are going to seriously endanger their health (as a pitcher), then they weren't going to remain healthy anyways.

 

As an example, Kyle Lohse was a pitcher who was developed "properly."

 

(psssst, don't mind the fact that in 2000, he put up an ERA of 6+ at AA...ERA DOESN'T MATTER IN THE MINORS HEHEHEHE)

 

98 - 170.2 IP

99 - 165 IP

00 - 167 IP

01 - 177.1 IP (between MiLB and MLB, so the year it would take effect). ERA was 2.79 MiLB, 5.68 MLB

02 - 180.2 IP, 4.23 ERA

03 - 201 IP, 4.61 ERA - 24 years old

 

So, uhhhhhhh...Year After Effect? Nope, because he was "properly developed."

 

---

 

The idea of shutting Chris Sale down is silly and absurd. If his arm can't handle 170 innings, then he's destined for a career in the bullpen or following the shadow of someone like, I dunno, KERRY WOOD. The main concept behind the Verducci Effect is to protect young arms when and where you can. Develop them slowly and build the innings up over time. It all makes sense. But if you are 4 games up in the division come mid-August and you decide to shut your best pitcher down because of some arbitrary number that some pitching coach came up with at some point along the way, then you are bound and determined to sabotage your own season. It sounds like something the f***ing Montreal Expos would do.

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Hasnt there been talk of Sale being on an innings limit this season? If so, it would make sense to have Quintana down in AA/AAA until the time comes when they need someone to step in for him

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QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ May 31, 2012 -> 08:03 AM)
Hasnt there been talk of Sale being on an innings limit this season? If so, it would make sense to have Quintana down in AA/AAA until the time comes when they need someone to step in for him

 

It hasn't been said publicly for sure, but that seems to be the MO of this management group.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 31, 2012 -> 08:07 AM)
It hasn't been said publicly for sure, but that seems to be the MO of this management group.

 

The success of this team could change that quickly though. If the Sox are out of it, I'm sure he gets shut down. But I doubt it happens if they are battling for the division crown.

 

If Q turns out to be servicable, then every once in a while you can maybe skip Sale's turn in the rotation and let Q make a spot start.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ May 31, 2012 -> 08:15 AM)
The success of this team could change that quickly though. If the Sox are out of it, I'm sure he gets shut down. But I doubt it happens if they are battling for the division crown.

 

If Q turns out to be servicable, then every once in a while you can maybe skip Sale's turn in the rotation and let Q make a spot start.

 

I don't think they shut Sale down unless he breaks down.... Velocity drops, dead arm, extra soreness, etc. They showed me last year that they want their guys to pitch if at all possible, in situations where building innings is necessary.

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QUOTE (Heads22 @ May 30, 2012 -> 11:04 PM)
Santiago, for one, has a much lower average against righties but they have a higher OPS against him. I wonder what pitches he's giving up these hits on.

I think it's the screwball, if I'm recognizing his pitches correctly. (It's either that or it's a change). It's a low 80's mph pitch that breaks away from the righties, but it keeps floating up in the zone knee/waist high, and becomes that meatball.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 31, 2012 -> 08:21 AM)
I don't think they shut Sale down unless he breaks down.... Velocity drops, dead arm, extra soreness, etc. They showed me last year that they want their guys to pitch if at all possible, in situations where building innings is necessary.

Both he with us and Strasburg in Washington could make this quite a hot topic in August or September.

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QUOTE (iamshack @ May 31, 2012 -> 09:38 AM)
Both he with us and Strasburg in Washington could make this quite a hot topic in August or September.

I still think the way to reduce that concern down the stretch is to pencil in some extra time off, either using a callup or Stewart or Mr. Offday in his place, once a month for the next 3 months.

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