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southsider2k5

1/3 of the way through the season

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for everyone still in the statistical dark ages (SS, DA, etc)

 

OBP>>>>>>>>AVG in determining a players' value.

 

OPS>>>>>>>>AVG in determining a players' value.

 

why is this difficult to grasp?

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 11:28 AM)
Right. One reply versus "like 8", and I am the one who is arguing? There is a reason I mostly ignored your posts after I clarified my system.

I've been trying to provide data to back up my position and understand your logic better...I thought that's why you created the thread, to stir discussion?

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QUOTE (Reddy @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 12:41 PM)
for everyone still in the statistical dark ages (SS, DA, etc)

 

OBP>>>>>>>>AVG in determining a players' value.

 

OPS>>>>>>>>AVG in determining a players' value.

 

why is this difficult to grasp?

Its really not difficult to grasp, and I've said Dunn is doing decently, just not outstanding which would warrant an A. but a hit is still better than a walk no matter what your fantasy baseball book tells you, and a strikeout still isn't the same as any other out as runners don't advance or score.

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QUOTE (Reddy @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 11:41 AM)
for everyone still in the statistical dark ages (SS, DA, etc)

 

OBP>>>>>>>>AVG in determining a players' value.

 

OPS>>>>>>>>AVG in determining a players' value.

 

why is this difficult to grasp?

Well average is just one component of on base percentage. I could understand being frustrated by a low average, even if it was accompanied by a high OBP, if the hitter didn't hit for power. But Dunn gives you the power you're looking for to go along with the high OBP...would it be a heck of a lot different if he hit .300 and just walked half as much?

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 11:50 AM)
Its really not difficult to grasp, and I've said Dunn is doing decently, just not outstanding which would warrant an A. but a hit is still better than a walk no matter what your fantasy baseball book tells you, and a strikeout still isn't the same as any other out as runners don't advance or score.

I'm just asking what would warrant an A then?

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Dunn is definitely an A. Guy is going to smash 45+ homers. That is EXACTLY what we signed him for. I couldn't care less about his BA (as long as it's not at the 2011 level, that is) so long as is OPS is above .900 and he keeps his walks up.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 12:50 PM)
Its really not difficult to grasp, and I've said Dunn is doing decently, just not outstanding which would warrant an A. but a hit is still better than a walk no matter what your fantasy baseball book tells you, and a strikeout still isn't the same as any other out as runners don't advance or score.

Yea, but OBP includes hits AND walks, which is why it's so much better.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 10:50 AM)
Its really not difficult to grasp, and I've said Dunn is doing decently, just not outstanding which would warrant an A. but a hit is still better than a walk no matter what your fantasy baseball book tells you, and a strikeout still isn't the same as any other out as runners don't advance or score.

A walk takes at least 4 pitches to achieve. I think that's the advantage. More pitches by the pitcher (usually).

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 12:52 PM)
Well average is just one component of on base percentage. I could understand being frustrated by a low average, even if it was accompanied by a high OBP, if the hitter didn't hit for power. But Dunn gives you the power you're looking for to go along with the high OBP...would it be a heck of a lot different if he hit .300 and just walked half as much?

 

Single is more valuable than a walk, at least from a linear weight perspective. Not by much though.

 

Either way, Dunn doesn't get out that much and when he does get hits, they go a long way. I don't see how Dunn isn't at least a B after what he went through last year.

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 12:52 PM)
Well average is just one component of on base percentage. I could understand being frustrated by a low average, even if it was accompanied by a high OBP, if the hitter didn't hit for power. But Dunn gives you the power you're looking for to go along with the high OBP...would it be a heck of a lot different if he hit .300 and just walked half as much?

I don't have a problem with Dunn's game. Go back to the Thome era and see who stuck up for him. I get the power/ low average/high OBP stuff. I'd rather Dunn make a little more contact, because he doesn't have to hit it all that well to hit it over the fence. I appreciate 500 foot blasts as much as anyone, but the ball that clears the wall by 6 inches counts the same.

Just remember a walk to Adam Dunn isn't as quite as valuable to the White Sox as a walk to Alejandro De Aza.

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QUOTE (Reddy @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 12:41 PM)
for everyone still in the statistical dark ages (SS, DA, etc)

 

OBP>>>>>>>>AVG in determining a players' value.

 

OPS>>>>>>>>AVG in determining a players' value.

 

why is this difficult to grasp?

Speaking of "difficult to grasp".

 

Dunn is essentially right at his career OBP, and a bit over his career OPS (especially if you drop 2011 and look at his NL body of work). Add that to the historical strike out rate, and I think it is logical to say that he isn't doing nearly what he could be doing, yet he could be worse too.

 

Put it this way. If he is an A now, what was he before he bled 110 OPS points over the last 3 weeks? Where he is at now, is not nearly his A material. His A material is where he was when he was killing everything in the middle of May. The guy is averaging two strike outs per game over the last 3 weeks. Average those three weeks out over the whole season, and I think he is pretty much at pre-2011 expectations.

 

 

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QUOTE (chw42 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 12:59 PM)
Single is more valuable than a walk, at least from a linear weight perspective. Not by much though.

 

Either way, Dunn doesn't get out that much and when he does get hits, they go a long way. I don't see how Dunn isn't at least a B after what he went through last year.

I think this is where a lot of the discussion/argument is happening. I wouldn't give the guy an A so far in 2012 because he performed at an F level in 2011. I would give him an A (I gave him an A-) based on the fact that he is doing EXACTLY what he is expected to do. He's a three outcome hitter: strikeout, walk, HR. His strikeouts are high, but he's walking a lot and he's on pace for 45+ HRs. If the guy was hitting .290, you'd have to invent a new grading scale because an A+ wouldn't be high enough.

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Good stuff, though I would list Dunn as a B, Beckham as a C (especially his HOT bat recently).

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 01:08 PM)
Speaking of "difficult to grasp".

 

Dunn is essentially right at his career OBP, and a bit over his career OPS (especially if you drop 2011 and look at his NL body of work). Add that to the historical strike out rate, and I think it is logical to say that he isn't doing nearly what he could be doing, yet he could be worse too.

 

Put it this way. If he is an A now, what was he before he bled 110 OPS points over the last 3 weeks? Where he is at now, is not nearly his A material. His A material is where he was when he was killing everything in the middle of May. The guy is averaging two strike outs per game over the last 3 weeks. Average those three weeks out over the whole season, and I think he is pretty much at pre-2011 expectations.

Then you've got to say the same thing for PK. If his apex was when he was hitting near .400, then surely now that he is back down at .360 he deserves a B, right?

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 01:18 PM)
Then you've got to say the same thing for PK. If his apex was when he was hitting near .400, then surely now that he is back down at .360 he deserves a B, right?

 

Except he is still way over his expectations as a whole. Dunn isn't.

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Dunn averages 4.39 plate appearances a game. He has put the ball in play 102 times in 54 games. Considering driving in runs and hitting home runs requires he do this, think what kind of damage he would do if he could up his 1.89 average of times putting a ball in play per game.

 

If it were Brent Lillibridge putting up the same numbers, its an easy A. Adam Dunn making $15 million, more is expected. Its a good year, I bet if you asked him, he'd tell you its not outstanding.

Edited by Dick Allen

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 01:20 PM)
Except he is still way over his expectations as a whole. Dunn isn't.

Are you saying career norms?

 

Dunn is .45 points above his career norms, as far as his OPS, and on pace to hit more home runs in a season than he has ever hit before.

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 01:23 PM)
Are you saying career norms?

 

Dunn is .45 points above his career norms, as far as his OPS, and on pace to hit more home runs in a season than he has ever hit before.

 

His OPS and OBP are severely skewed by his 2011 season. He is about a .900 career OPS guy. (.902 in his NL years) Dunn is .921 right now. His OBP (.376) is actually .05 less than his NL average (.381)and .02 (.374)more when you include last year and this year. Add in the historical K pace to balance out the .019 higher OPS, plus a career normal-ish OBP and I call that meeting expectations.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 12:27 PM)
His OPS and OBP are severely skewed by his 2011 season. He is about a .900 career OPS guy. (.902 in his NL years) Dunn is .921 right now. His OBP (.376) is actually .05 less than his NL average (.381)and .02 (.374)more when you include last year and this year. Add in the historical K pace to balance out the .019 higher OPS, plus a career normal-ish OBP and I call that meeting expectations.

Doesn't what happened last year factor into his "expectations"?

 

 

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And secondly, let me ask you this...who do you think has a better chance to sustain their current production for the remainder of the year, Dunn or Konerko?

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 01:30 PM)
And secondly, let me ask you this...who do you think has a better chance to sustain their current production for the remainder of the year, Dunn or Konerko?

Who would you rather have up at the plate ?

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 11:20 AM)
Except he is still way over his expectations as a whole. Dunn isn't.

I'd say Dunn is ahead of most anyone's expectations. He was coming off arguably the worse season in professional baseball history and at this stage of his game his numbers are in line, if not ahead of his career averages. I can fault plenty of things with Dunn, but from an expectation standpoint I'd say by and large he's exceeding most everyone's expectations.

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And I ask for the third time, from those of you saying he is merely getting a C right now, what numbers would Adam Dunn need to put up to get an A?

 

How would a guy like Longoria get an A on this grade scale? Would he need to win the Triple Crown and hit .400 with 65 home runs?

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 12:33 PM)
Who would you rather have up at the plate ?

What does that have to do with this discussion?

 

And if I needed a home run, Dunn.

Edited by iamshack

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