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1/3 of the way through the season


southsider2k5
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QUOTE (Reddy @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 03:41 PM)
so you're telling me, that solely based on a high strikeout total, a guy goes from an A to a C. Regardless of the Runs Created.... Regardless of the WAR... Regardless of the OPS, the RBIs, the Home Runs, the Runs Scored, the highest walk rate of his career.

 

Regardless of all that. 88 strikeouts is worth grading him a C.

 

If you say yes to all this, then we'll leave it at that and speak no more of it.

 

I never said that at all, but OK.

 

Honestly I think OPS is a bit misleading because it gives overweight to slugging stats, and doesn't weight their negative outcomes very well. Looking at Runs scored and RBIs is another double counted stat for a home run hitter. He gets an RBI and a run scored in each homer. Runs scored are also a product of the guys hitting behind you. RBI's are a large part of the guys hitting in front of you.

 

Even at that...

 

OBP-in line with career numbers

OPS-barely ahead of career numbers.

 

Balance that with the things you choose to look at, plus his negatives, and then add in the expectations there are for an Adam Dunn, and I arrive at a C.

 

If you want to detail your grading system and do something, have at it.

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 03:44 PM)
So you get to remove last season from Dunn's body of work, but keep all of Peavy's seasons in for his body of work...and Peavy's expectations are drastically affected by his injury but Dunn's aren't by his historically bad season last year...

 

That's just inconsistent...

 

I'm not saying I could honestly articulate exact criteria with which to grade, and I am sure some people would disagree with some of my grades...

 

But bottom line...in this era of baseball...you cannot say a guy on pace for 50 home runs and a .375 OBP deserves a C...that just does not make sense on any level.

 

Even if Albert Pujols, who probably has the highest expectations in all of baseball, put up Adam Dunn's current line, I would not give him a C.

 

I did say I adjusted my expectations because of Peavy's injury. He is literally never going to be the pitcher he was in the middle 2000's. Part of what makes his pitching this year so much more impressive is despite those physical limitations, he is still beating some of those numbers.

 

I look at Dunn's 2011 as a horrible aberration, as he is pretty well proving that wrong, and he has no physical reason to have that held against him. If you want to grade him, include them. That is your prerogative.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 02:49 PM)
I never said that at all, but OK.

 

Honestly I think OPS is a bit misleading because it gives overweight to slugging stats, and doesn't weight their negative outcomes very well. Looking at Runs scored and RBIs is another double counted stat for a home run hitter. He gets an RBI and a run scored in each homer. Runs scored are also a product of the guys hitting behind you. RBI's are a large part of the guys hitting in front of you.

 

Even at that...

 

OBP-in line with career numbers

OPS-barely ahead of career numbers.

 

Balance that with the things you choose to look at, plus his negatives, and then add in the expectations there are for an Adam Dunn, and I arrive at a C.

 

If you want to detail your grading system and do something, have at it.

There have only been 26 players in the history of baseball to hit 50 or more home runs in a season.

 

Adam is on pace to hit 51 thus far this season. 1 HR for every 11.31 ABs. He also has an OBP of .375 and a .545 slugging percentage.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 03:39 PM)
And 88 strikeouts isn't.

Yeah, but Adam Dunn has only grounded into one double play this season. ONE.

 

Viciedo is already at 9, tied with Alexei Ramirez. Rios at 7, Slayer at 6, Paulie at 6.

 

Dunn at 1.

 

Strikeouts aren't as awful as you make them out to be, and when Dunn LEADS ALL OF BASEBALL IN WALKS, I'd say that tips the scales and makes up for the k's. Oh, he's also 2nd in HRs.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 01:49 PM)
I never said that at all, but OK.

 

Honestly I think OPS is a bit misleading because it gives overweight to slugging stats, and doesn't weight their negative outcomes very well. Looking at Runs scored and RBIs is another double counted stat for a home run hitter. He gets an RBI and a run scored in each homer. Runs scored are also a product of the guys hitting behind you. RBI's are a large part of the guys hitting in front of you.

 

Even at that...

 

OBP-in line with career numbers

OPS-barely ahead of career numbers.

 

Balance that with the things you choose to look at, plus his negatives, and then add in the expectations there are for an Adam Dunn, and I arrive at a C.

 

If you want to detail your grading system and do something, have at it.

The real question, and only you can answer this (and it is your opinion) is whether you think that Adam Dunn, from a career perspective, is an A player. I think it depends on where you as an individual fall from a stat perspective. Given that he can't play defense and has flaws (such as a low batting average and high strikeouts), I personally would never rate Adam Dunn (via his career averages) as an A player. I'd rate him a B to B+ player. To be frank, that is the same rating I'd give a Paul Konerko on a career average perspective (or very similar).

 

However, I think some people would potentially argue Dunn (at his averages) is an A player (because of OBP, OPS, and his pure slugging). There is a disparity in how 2 different people view certain stats and give weight to certain stats.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 04:07 PM)
The real question, and only you can answer this (and it is your opinion) is whether you think that Adam Dunn, from a career perspective, is an A player. I think it depends on where you as an individual fall from a stat perspective. Given that he can't play defense and has flaws (such as a low batting average and high strikeouts), I personally would never rate Adam Dunn (via his career averages) as an A player. I'd rate him a B to B+ player. To be frank, that is the same rating I'd give a Paul Konerko on a career average perspective (or very similar).

 

However, I think some people would potentially argue Dunn (at his averages) is an A player (because of OBP, OPS, and his pure slugging). There is a disparity in how 2 different people view certain stats and give weight to certain stats.

totally agree. but in no way is he a C (or average) player. no matter WHAT metrics you're using.

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QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 04:00 PM)
Yeah, but Adam Dunn has only grounded into one double play this season. ONE.

 

Viciedo is already at 9, tied with Alexei Ramirez. Rios at 7, Slayer at 6, Paulie at 6.

 

Dunn at 1.

 

Strikeouts aren't as awful as you make them out to be, and when Dunn LEADS ALL OF BASEBALL IN WALKS, I'd say that tips the scales and makes up for the k's. Oh, he's also 2nd in HRs.

 

I'd venture that he would have many more hits and homers if his K rate was something closer to his normal rates. And as Reddy would say, walks are factored into OBP and OPS.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 04:07 PM)
The real question, and only you can answer this (and it is your opinion) is whether you think that Adam Dunn, from a career perspective, is an A player. I think it depends on where you as an individual fall from a stat perspective. Given that he can't play defense and has flaws (such as a low batting average and high strikeouts), I personally would never rate Adam Dunn (via his career averages) as an A player. I'd rate him a B to B+ player. To be frank, that is the same rating I'd give a Paul Konerko on a career average perspective (or very similar).

 

However, I think some people would potentially argue Dunn (at his averages) is an A player (because of OBP, OPS, and his pure slugging). There is a disparity in how 2 different people view certain stats and give weight to certain stats.

 

I'd put Dunn on the same plateau as Peavy and Konerko in terms of expectations.

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QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 04:00 PM)
Yeah, but Adam Dunn has only grounded into one double play this season. ONE.

 

Viciedo is already at 9, tied with Alexei Ramirez. Rios at 7, Slayer at 6, Paulie at 6.

 

Dunn at 1.

 

Strikeouts aren't as awful as you make them out to be, and when Dunn LEADS ALL OF BASEBALL IN WALKS, I'd say that tips the scales and makes up for the k's. Oh, he's also 2nd in HRs.

He's on pace for 260 strikeouts. If he cuts that down to 160, that's 100 more balls in play. He's a career .292 babip. That's 29 more hits. About 1 out of every 4 hits is a homer, so thats an additional 7 home runs.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 06:20 PM)
He's on pace for 260 strikeouts. If he cuts that down to 160, that's 100 more balls in play. He's a career .292 babip. That's 29 more hits. About 1 out of every 4 hits is a homer, so thats an additional 7 home runs.

Hard to say that everything else would be the same though...would he walk less than? Would he hit as many home runs with that approach (when he did hit the ball)...

 

One could certainly make the argument that with more balls in play he would have more production, but I think that probably would come with a significant change in approach that might change everything.

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 06:33 PM)
Hard to say that everything else would be the same though...would he walk less than? Would he hit as many home runs with that approach (when he did hit the ball)...

 

One could certainly make the argument that with more balls in play he would have more production, but I think that probably would come with a significant change in approach that might change everything.

 

I think we have actually seen a change in his approach. It seems like he is swinging harder when he swings this year, and it is reflected through higher K and HR rates.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 05:35 PM)
I think we have actually seen a change in his approach. It seems like he is swinging harder when he swings this year, and it is reflected through higher K and HR rates.

I don't know that I agree, but if that is true, than I would certainly prefer he stick with it as opposed to whatever he did last year!

Edited by iamshack
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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 04:42 PM)
I don't know that I agree, but if that is true, than I would certainly prefer he stick with it as opposed to whatever he did last year!

I believe he mentioned that last year he had changed his approach a bit and tried to do put things in play and that ultimately he ended up over thinking and being caught in between a whole lot.

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The Dunn C grade is absolutely absurd. You are acting like Trump with the birth certificate thing.

 

Have you seen Dunn's numbers this year with runners on base? OPS well over 1.100. Your nonsense about his strikeouts being important because he isn't moving runners over fails to hold up since all his strikeouts are coming with no one on base anyway.

 

There is a reason why Dunn has more RBIs than Konerko even though he is hitting 140 points less.

 

Also Dunn basically did nothing but strike out for the last week so you are judging his numbers after a short cold streak that significantly changed BA, strikeout total, and OPS. How does the last week (when we went 6-1) somehow mean that much to his season?

 

This is why message boards get bogged down, people can't be wrong even when they are wrong. Dunn has been awesome this year just give him some props and move on.

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QUOTE (TheHammer @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 08:00 PM)
The Dunn C grade is absolutely absurd. You are acting like Trump with the birth certificate thing.

 

Have you seen Dunn's numbers this year with runners on base? OPS well over 1.100. Your nonsense about his strikeouts being important because he isn't moving runners over fails to hold up since all his strikeouts are coming with no one on base anyway.

 

There is a reason why Dunn has more RBIs than Konerko even though he is hitting 140 points less.

 

Also Dunn basically did nothing but strike out for the last week so you are judging his numbers after a short cold streak that significantly changed BA, strikeout total, and OPS. How does the last week (when we went 6-1) somehow mean that much to his season?

 

This is why message boards get bogged down, people can't be wrong even when they are wrong. Dunn has been awesome this year just give him some props and move on.

:headbang :headbang :headbang

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 01:01 PM)
Correction: It is everyone's thread. Grades are as subjective as it gets and everyone is entitled to their opinions.

Exactly. It's an opinion. It doesn't need a grade scale.If I like the season player A is having I can give him an A based on nothing more than I feel good about the guy, Player B may have a better season but maybe I don't like his lack of hustle or his non-chalant fielding so I give him a B or worse. Am i wrong? Many would say yes and give me multiple reasons . You grade based upon how you feel or stats or w/e floats your boat. Right now all I know is the TEAM gets an A.

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I'd have to give Dunn a high B or and A. I have been extremely impressed with him, and this is everything I wanted for him. I don't care if his average is low. He rarely grounds into double plays and his hits and high walk rate come up big for us. His hits are usually run scorers and he gets on base a lot for the 4 batters behind him who have been red hot. Dunn is one of the most important parts of this offense.

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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 09:31 PM)
Exactly. It's an opinion. It doesn't need a grade scale.If I like the season player A is having I can give him an A based on nothing more than I feel good about the guy, Player B may have a better season but maybe I don't like his lack of hustle or his non-chalant fielding so I give him a B or worse. Am i wrong? Many would say yes and give me multiple reasons . You grade based upon how you feel or stats or w/e floats your boat. Right now all I know is the TEAM gets an A.

I don't think anyone is saying people don't have the right to their own opinion.

 

The fun comes in debating your opinion and those of others with all the facts available.

Edited by iamshack
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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 09:04 PM)
I don't think anyone is saying people don't have the right to their own opinion.

 

The fun comes in debating your opinion and those of others with all the facts available.

But the debates get a bit out of hand sometimes trying to win or say your reasoning is better than someone else's. Not you in particular.

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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 11:11 PM)
But the debates get a bit out of hand sometimes trying to win or say your reasoning is better than someone else's. Not you in particular.

A small price to pay for the opportunity to share our thoughts and increase our baseball and White Sox knowledge.

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