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Jake

Should White Sox Hold or Fold?

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QUOTE (Swingandalongonetoleft @ May 14, 2013 -> 09:40 AM)
Just an observation- it feels as if every year one hears about another 2 or 3 teams that acquire the license to print their own money via new Broadcast rights deals. At what point is everyone back to a level playing field? I know I read something a while back that had a pretty sizable group of teams (7 or 8 IIRC) on the verge of having their current deals expire by 2015 or so.

The White Sox deal with CSN comes up for renewal in 2019.

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QUOTE (fathom @ May 13, 2013 -> 05:51 PM)
I'll be honest, I don't even know what the argument is anymore. No one truly thinks the Sox are going to be trading Sale or Santiago. Outside of that, everyone will be on the market I'd assume and no one seems too against that. That doesn't mean all 23 players on the active roster will get traded. As long as you have the likes of Sale/Santiago in your rotation, it's hard to picture a situation where a full rebuild in the mode of the Marlins takes place. That doesn't mean that you spend a fortune this offseason to try to path every hole the big league roster has.

I'm fine with taking offers for Peavy & Rios if we're out of the race come the trade deadline, but IMO you have to be blown away to move either of them. I'm talking about receiving at least one high-end, close-to-ready minor leaguer for either of them.

 

Both guys are under contract for another season at cheap salaries plus they each have an option year. Short of injury, they'll still be extremely valuable next trade deadline. You don't move guys like them simply to move them. You only move them if you feel like the deal(s) has a very good chance of making you better in the near future. If all you can get is a couple of low A prospects, then you should hold on to them.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ May 14, 2013 -> 09:48 AM)
I'm fine with taking offers for Peavy & Rios if we're out of the race come the trade deadline, but IMO you have to be blown away to move either of them. I'm talking about receiving at least one high-end, close-to-ready minor leaguer for either of them.

 

Both guys are under contract for another season at cheap salaries plus they each have an option year. Short of injury, they'll still be extremely valuable next trade deadline. You don't move guys like them simply to move them. You only move them if you feel like the deal(s) has a very good chance of making you better in the near future. If all you can get is a couple of low A prospects, then you should hold on to them.

 

I completely agree with you. If the prospects are too far away, they likely won't be ready when the Sox pitching gets expensive (and/or old and injured). Hahn's major task is how to build a league-average or better offense in the next two years.

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Possible 2014 Free Agents

This is a possible list. Obviously some of these guys will be re-signed by the end of the season, others will have options exercised. This just gives you an idea of who can be got.

I say Sox fold this year, but not at the expense of future years. The only people that should be dangled: Peavy, Thorton, Lindstrom, Rios, Dunn, Ramirez, Konerko. I'm not asking to deal all, just maybe 3 or 4.

 

The pitching keeps them competitive for the next 4 or 5 years(obviously if it stays healthy, can't predict pitching injuries). Add in what the Sox can receive for some dealt players, plus maybe a few of those free-agents from that list...There should be no worries about being Astro/Royal/Pirate bad for 5+ years.

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With the pitching depth the Sox have, contracts and young guys... doing a gut rebuild would be an incredible waste. Very few teams have the pitching the Sox do, plus the Sox have a few good young arms coming up.

 

First, I think it is still a little too early to wave the white flag. It just seems unlikely to me that the offense and defense will continue being this bad or even close to it.

 

But if in June sometime, it looks like the team really is this bad at hitting and/or defense... then you look to shed contracts ONLY for players that are not important to your 2014 plans. Get what you can for them, if no one bites with anything of value, then hold.

 

Then in the offseason, the Sox probably can trade an arm, plus have that additional money from the contracts coming off, to address some holes on the field.

 

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QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ May 14, 2013 -> 08:06 AM)
not only 36, but often injured. No thanks on Chase

 

Plus we have several options there. The corpse of Keppinger, Gordon Beckham, Carlos Sanchez. We shouldn't have to buy a player there...unless it's Robinson Cano. I'd trade my first born for that dude on the Sox :D

 

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 14, 2013 -> 08:29 AM)
I think this is a cop-out answer and is totally wrong. A very similar offense to this scored the 4th most runs in the AL last year. They are bound to heat up at some point, and there's no reason to rush to a decision.

 

Shh...we're the worst team ever!!!! AJ Pierzysnki is the only reason that team was any good!!!

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ May 14, 2013 -> 08:48 AM)
I'm fine with taking offers for Peavy & Rios if we're out of the race come the trade deadline, but IMO you have to be blown away to move either of them. I'm talking about receiving at least one high-end, close-to-ready minor leaguer for either of them.

 

Both guys are under contract for another season at cheap salaries plus they each have an option year. Short of injury, they'll still be extremely valuable next trade deadline. You don't move guys like them simply to move them. You only move them if you feel like the deal(s) has a very good chance of making you better in the near future. If all you can get is a couple of low A prospects, then you should hold on to them.

 

They aren't going to go to the postseason next year and Peavy and Rios trade value is more likely to decline next year.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 14, 2013 -> 04:12 PM)
They aren't going to go to the postseason next year and Peavy and Rios trade value is more likely to decline next year.

MARTY HAS SPOKEN. OBEY.

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Worst poker player ever. FOLD! FOLD! FOLD! FOLD! hmm, maybe I sh... FOLD!

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 14, 2013 -> 03:18 PM)
MARTY HAS SPOKEN. OBEY.

 

Why dance around it, this is a bottom 10 team in mlb. They are 23-13 in the Hawk Harrelson Baseball League though.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 14, 2013 -> 04:56 PM)
Why dance around it, this is a bottom 10 team in mlb. They are 23-13 in the Hawk Harrelson Baseball League though.

And they've somehow got an ERA over 5 in 2014 in the Marty34 league, because MARTY HAS SPOKEN.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 14, 2013 -> 03:56 PM)
Why dance around it, this is a bottom 10 team in mlb. They are 23-13 in the Hawk Harrelson Baseball League though.

 

Because this team is a bad 16 game stretch away from being a playoff team last year. Relaxing and maybe getting to f***ing July of 2013 should take precedence before deciding the fate of the 2014 team.

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I feel like the Sox have sucked since the second half of '06.

 

Before you mention 2008 and the Blackout Game, that season was more of a contest between us and Minny to see who could blow it.

 

I'm fine with a blowup/rebuild at this point.

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Fold. There is not enough in FA market to put us back to where we need to be, and there won't be. I don't want Utley, or McCann. Try to trade Peavy and Rios + maybe Crain/Lindstrom to acquire some good position players. Peavy could get us a top-100 easily to a contender that is desperate.

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QUOTE (LVSoxFan @ May 14, 2013 -> 04:08 PM)
I feel like the Sox have sucked since the second half of '06.

 

Before you mention 2008 and the Blackout Game, that season was more of a contest between us and Minny to see who could blow it.

 

I'm fine with a blowup/rebuild at this point.

 

First and foremost, they had an 89 win season in 2008, an 88 win season in 2010, and an 85 win season and first place most of the year last year. They've just been terrible.

 

They played at a .648 clip in the first half of 2006 (a 105 win pace) and they won a World Series in 2005. Suggesting they've done nothing but sucked since that point is ignorant and short-sighted.

 

I also like these fans that suggest a blowup/rebuild is a good idea at this point. People have this idea that blowing teams up is cool because it's like video games or Florida where you trade all these players off and get a bunch of young, play hard minor leaguers up and it's a fun, grand old time followed shortly there after by winning. Meanwhile, Toronto hasn't been to the playoffs in 20 years, Kansas City hasn't made the playoffs in 27 years, Pittsburgh hasn't had a winning season in 20 years, Cleveland has made 1 playoff appearance since they decided to sink the ship in 2002 (though they've had nice years here and there), Houston and Florida are going to battle all year to see who is going to be the worst team in the league this year with no end in sight, and the Cubs - the Cubs! - are starting to lose fans from the stands.

 

If the White Sox rebuild, it's going to be ugly for a long time because the only two logical assets to be traded are Peavy and Rios. Maybe you can trade some expiring contracts for shots in the dark or relievers for low-level minor leaguers more likely to never rise above Winston-Salem then they are to get to Birmingham, Charlotte, or even Chicago. They will run out prospects not ready for the majors and AAAA players who will never be that good just to fill at bats. They'll score 600 runs over the duration of a season (or fewer). They will lose 90-100 games for multiple years. And when will they get better and be ready to compete? If everything goes according to plan, the earliest the Sox are looking to compete is 2016, and that's at the very earliest. It could be upwards of 2018 or 2020 by the time they're competing again, and maybe not even then - they might not compete again until 2040. Stretches that long are not unprecedented.

 

Personally, I'd rather see them try and scrape together patchwork offenses, because with the talent on this pitching staff, they may be able to occasionally sneak into the playoffs here and there with breakout years. If they don't, contending all year and breaking my heart in August or September is a hell of a lot more entertaining and thrilling than knowing in April that the team has no shot.

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They played at a .648 clip in the first half of 2006 (a 105 win pace) and they won a World Series in 2005. Suggesting they've done nothing but sucked since that point is ignorant and short-sighted.

 

Not sure what team you've been watching but I feel like I've been watching the SAME ONE since then, just replacing Thome with Dunn.

 

I will say this, I should correct myself: they didn't suck last year until the last month or so, that's true. Don't know how that happened, but they were exciting for a while.

 

Other than that though, meh.

 

Me? I'm tired of the "patchwork" and hoping to "sneak in" to the playoffs. I'm willing to sacrifice to play the long game.

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QUOTE (LVSoxFan @ May 14, 2013 -> 04:46 PM)
Not sure what team you've been watching but I feel like I've been watching the SAME ONE since then, just replacing Thome with Dunn.

 

I will say this, I should correct myself: they didn't suck last year until the last month or so, that's true. Don't know how that happened, but they were exciting for a while.

 

Other than that though, meh.

 

Me? I'm tired of the "patchwork" and hoping to "sneak in" to the playoffs. I'm willing to sacrifice to play the long game.

 

I would lose a lot of interest in baseball the White Sox if they rebuilt. I'd probably start following the Pirates, Orioles, or Rays a hell of a lot more closely. Not that I wouldn't have my rooting interests first, but I'd have to develop others because I know how s***ty and depressing following the White Sox would be.

 

I'm a Bills fan too - rebuilding for a long time is s***ty and kills your fan base. I also know way more about the Bears and Patriots than I should, but I happen to have developed a habit of watching those two teams whenever I can too. To think that wouldn't happen to the White Sox is silly, and most people would switch allegiances and start following the Cubs. That is the one time when Sox fans should care about the Cubs winning something.

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QUOTE (LVSoxFan @ May 14, 2013 -> 04:46 PM)
Not sure what team you've been watching but I feel like I've been watching the SAME ONE since then, just replacing Thome with Dunn.

 

I will say this, I should correct myself: they didn't suck last year until the last month or so, that's true. Don't know how that happened, but they were exciting for a while.

 

Other than that though, meh.

 

Me? I'm tired of the "patchwork" and hoping to "sneak in" to the playoffs. I'm willing to sacrifice to play the long game.

 

They also sucked until Mid-May last year, but we all know the season is never lost just 30-some games in.

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I don't want the Sox to fold this year, but I'm OK if they decide to sell 2 or 3 pieces. I, however, would not be fine if they decide to blow the entire team up.

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QUOTE (Jake @ May 14, 2013 -> 06:01 PM)
They also sucked until Mid-May last year, but we all know the season is never lost just 30-some games in.

Incorrect. This board knows not only that this season is lost, but that 2014 is a lost cause as well. And, if you press, this board also knows that 2015 is shot.

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QUOTE (Jake @ May 14, 2013 -> 10:01 PM)
They also sucked until Mid-May last year, but we all know the season is never lost just 30-some games in.

 

17-19 on this date last year with zero run differential. It's not like the Sox are on the same pace they were last year (15-21, -19 run differential).

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 14, 2013 -> 04:50 PM)
I would lose a lot of interest in baseball the White Sox if they rebuilt. I'd probably start following the Pirates, Orioles, or Rays a hell of a lot more closely. Not that I wouldn't have my rooting interests first, but I'd have to develop others because I know how s***ty and depressing following the White Sox would be.

 

I'm a Bills fan too - rebuilding for a long time is s***ty and kills your fan base. I also know way more about the Bears and Patriots than I should, but I happen to have developed a habit of watching those two teams whenever I can too. To think that wouldn't happen to the White Sox is silly, and most people would switch allegiances and start following the Cubs. That is the one time when Sox fans should care about the Cubs winning something.

 

The reality is that whatever the White Sox decide to do during/after this season, if we don't want to sink to the depths of the Pirates and such, they need to not f*** it up. The reason the future seems bleak right now is that nearly everything KW has done since 2008 has backfired to some degree or another. It doesn't matter if they rebuild or compete or whatever you want to call it. If the moves turn out like Dunn, Peavy, Rios, Molina, Danks, Thornton, etc. we will suck regardless of the strategy used, and the hemorrhaging of fans will continue. That is the bottom line.

 

I happen to think that selling off in July if we are still in last place is the best move in the long term for the team. Maybe I'm wrong, but I can't see us competing next year if we can't this year.

 

 

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QUOTE (gatnom @ May 14, 2013 -> 11:23 PM)
The reality is that whatever the White Sox decide to do during/after this season, if we don't want to sink to the depths of the Pirates and such, they need to not f*** it up. The reason the future seems bleak right now is that nearly everything KW has done since 2008 has backfired to some degree or another. It doesn't matter if they rebuild or compete or whatever you want to call it. If the moves turn out like Dunn, Peavy, Rios, Molina, Danks, Thornton, etc. we will suck regardless of the strategy used, and the hemorrhaging of fans will continue. That is the bottom line.

 

I happen to think that selling off in July if we are still in last place is the best move in the long term for the team. Maybe I'm wrong, but I can't see us competing next year if we can't this year.

 

I also can't see the Sox having as small of a payroll as the Marlins, Pirates and Astros have had during their rebuilding years. Heck, just having Danks on the roster is more money than anyone on those teams were getting paid.

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